Creative Destruction, Investment Volatility, and the Average Age of Capital

In this article, a new numerical procedure is used to compute the equilibrium of a vintage capital growth model with nonlinear utility, where the scrapping time is nonconstant. We show that equilibrium investment and output converge nonmonotonically to the balanced growth path due to replacement echoes. We find that the average age of capital is inversely related to output, which is consistent with recent micro evidence reinforcing the importance of the embodied question. We also find that an unanticipated permanent increase in the rate of embodied technological progress causes labor productivity to slowdown in the short run.     

China's Growth Slowdown: Labor Supply,Productivity, or What?

There has been much discussion of the sources of China’s growth slowdown but little formal econometric analysis of this question. Chen and Groenewold (2019) show that the slowdown was primarily supply-driven, but they stopped short of identifying specific supply variables. This paper extends their analysis and distinguishes several potential supply components: labor supply, productivity, and capital accumulation. Our results confirm their main conclusion that supply dominates the explanation of the slowdown. A model with two supply factors (labor supply and productivity) reveals that both components contribute to the slowdown, although productivity makes the greater contribution. However, when capital stock is added to the model, the decline in the capital accumulation rate becomes an important factor in the growth slowdown, to some extent replacing the effects of both labor supply and productivity.     

ENDOGENOUS HUMAN CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND THE INTERACTION OF FRONTIER AND ADOPTIVE KNOWLEDGE ON GROWTH AND WAGE INEQUALITY

A three-sector, overlapping-generations growth model endogenizes the opportunity cost of human capital formation and the relative skill requirements of invention, innovation, and adoption of general-purpose technologies. As a result, the relative wage of skilled workers is a function of the endogenous ratio of total-to-adoptive knowledge (where the difference in knowledge stocks is frontier knowledge). Comparative statics are examined for the model's seven parameters. Simulations (representing a transition with phases to a more complex level of economic development) are presented for simultaneous exogenous shocks capable of matching (i) observed inverse movements of the relative wage and the detrended relative supply in the USA, (ii) the sharp slowing and recovering US multifactor productivity growth data since the 1970s, and (iii) a reconciliation of data used to support or deny skill-biased technological change as a major force driving up the relative wage since 1980.     

Twin Engines of Growth: Skills and Technology as Equal Partners in Balanced Growth

We develop an endogenous growth model in which skill acquisition by households and innovation by firms make distinct contributions to productivity growth. Nevertheless, the incentives faced by firms and households are inextricably linked because skills are required to implement new technologies. Skills and technologies are dynamic complements but, because their production complementarity is inherently bounded, they are equal partners in driving growth: neither can generate sustained growth alone. Our model has important implications for the effectiveness of alternative growth-promoting policies, for interpretating the empirical relationship between growth and schooling, and the relationship between growth and intergenerational wage dispersion.     

健康管理与企业生产力提高

本文探讨了现代企业生产力管理中健康管理的作用,提出健康管理是2j世纪企业提升生产力的新战略,是提高健康资源效益的有效途径。企业对健康的投资是一种重要的人力资本投资,健康管理是现代企业全面提高竞争力的必要手段。     

部门间生产率差距、劳动力去工业化与结构性减速

基于中国劳动力就业结构出现过快和过早去工业化的迹象,本文从部门间生产率差距的视角,利用多部门一般均衡模型、数值模拟和计量实证分析方法研究发现：（1）理论上,当服务业劳动生产率增长慢于工业,部门间生产率差距将扩大,导致劳动力去工业化速率加快;且部门间生产率差距的存在使得劳动力去工业化对经济增长产生结构性减速效应。服务业部门生产率加快提升,部门间生产率差距将会缩小,从而减缓去工业化速率和降低结构性减速压力;工业部门生产率提升尽管会扩大部门间生产率差距从而加快劳动力去工业化,但在长期中起到均匀化经济增长速率的作用。（2）利用2001—2018年中国省级和城市级面板数据的计量实证分析发现,部门间生产率差距的存在导致劳动力去工业化的效应在全时段样本下显著,但劳动力去工业化对经济增长的结构性减速效应仅在2009—2018年区间样本下显著,表明近年来中国经济增长减速与部门间生产率差距及其导致的劳动力去工业化相关。（3）赶超成功与失败国家的经验比较也表明,工业与服务业部门劳动生产率的改善与协调是跨越中等收入陷阱以及跨越后实现持续赶超的关键。     

Corporate governance,human capital,and productivity: evidence from Chinese non-listed firms

This article analyses the effects of corporate governance (CG) and human capital on productivity by using the 1999–2006 data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC). The findings of this study are twofold. First, CG and human capital generate significant positive effects on the productivity of both state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and non-SOEs. Second, CG has significantly different moderate and mediate effects on the relationship between human capital and productivity. Our results are robust to different specifications and alternative measures. This study provides clear policy implications by suggesting that the firms in emerging markets, especially SOEs, must improve their CG and their allocation of human capital for them to enhance their productivity.     

人力资本、技术差距与全要素生产率

在运用改进方法对我国省级人力资本存量和全要素生产率进行了再测算的基础上,引入地区技术差距变量,实证研究了1996—2016年间我国省级人力资本存量、地区技术差距对全要素生产率的影响。结果发现人力资本、地区技术差距对全要素生产率、技术效率改进、技术进步的作用,存在相互制约、互相促进的一个过程,这是对已有文献研究结论的一个补充。     

以创新团队为载体的科技创新领军人物内涵初探

知识经济时代,科技创新的难度不断加大,需要科技创新领军人物引领创新团队去实现创新目标。在分析科技创新领军人物人力资本分层的基础上,深入探究其人力资本存在的特征,提出作为高新技术的发明者、创新价值的实现者和持续创新的反哺者的科技创新领军人物人力资本创新效用。     

The sources of total factor productivity growth: Evidence from Canadian data

A dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed and used to identify sources of total factor productivity growth in Canada and to quantify their importance. The model also provides procedures for constructing measures of technological progress. We find that periods of low productivity growth correspond to periods of high growth in investment-specific technology (IST) or high rates of technology embodiment. For example, the growth rate of IST was relatively high between 1974 and 1996. The higher growth rate of IST during this period should have increased the rate of productivity growth by an estimated 0.29 percentage points, ceteris paribus. Yet, productivity growth slowed. Why?     

中国工业劳动生产率分解及其对地区收入差距的影响研究

用非参数生产前沿方法将我国1978-2007年工业劳动生产率增长分解为效率变化、技术变化、物质资本和人力资本变化的贡献四个部分,并用方差分解方法估算了各部分对地区工业劳动生产率增长差异的贡献,然后采用核密度分布方法分析了上述四个部分对工业劳动生产率差距以及三次产业对地区收入差距的影响。研究发现:(1)物质资本积累是我国工业劳动生产率增长和地区差距的主要来源,人力资本积累的贡献较小;(2)效率虽然对工业劳动生产率增长的贡献较小,但却是工业劳动生产率地区差异的重要原因;(3)技术是要素非中性的,且技术进步主要发生在有效劳均资本较高的地区。(4)1978-1992年期间,地区收入差距主要来自农业劳动生产率增长差异,而在1992-2007年期间,地区收入差距则主要来自工业劳动生产率增长差异。     

R&D, Human Capital and International Technology Spillovers: A Cross-country Analysis

This paper is based on recent developments in the theory of innovation-driven growth that emphasize both the importance of R&D efforts — domestic as well as foreign — for explaining national productivity, and the complementarity between R&D and human capital investments. Estimates of specifications, in growth terms and in level terms, on a cross-section of OECD countries from the early 1960s to the early 1990s lend strong support to this thesis. The data show a significant influence of both domestic and foreign R&D. Moreover, there is clearly a net positive impact of human capital. The level and growth rate of human capital are shown to affect productivity growth and there is evidence of interaction with the catch-up process.
JEL classification: O 33; O 47     

技术模仿、人力资本积累与自主创新——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

文章选取我国1996～2004年的省际面板数据，运用门槛效应（threshold efhct）分析方法，从人力资本积累角度，探讨适宜我国当前经济增长的技术进步途径。实证表明，FDI的资本积累效应与R＆D投入已对我国现实经济的发展作出显著贡献；我国现有整体人力资本已达到进行有效技术模仿的临界值，技术模仿对我国经济的贡献已凸显出来，但同时也存在区域差异；而我国现有人力资本尚未满足全面自主创新的要求，加大人力资本积累是我国实施全面自主创新战略的重要支撑。