Financial Development,Financial Structure,and the Growth Effect of Monetary Policy: International Evidence

This paper investigates how financial development and financial structure affect the growth effect of monetary policy using panel data from 49 countries over the period 1980–2014. We find robust evidence that financial development has a significantly negative impact on the growth effect of monetary policy. We also find that the growth effect of monetary policy tends to be more pronounced as the financial structure of a country becomes more market-based. These results not only add interesting new evidence to the recent literature on the growth effects of monetary policy, but also provide some important insights into the financial determinants of monetary policy effects on economic growth, which have largely been ignored in the previous literature.     

基于金融稳定目标的规则型货币政策研究

随着货币政策与金融稳定之间联系的不断深化，中央银行理应在防范金融市场系统性风险中发挥重要的作用。文章首先构建我国金融稳定指数，并将其加入线性货币政策规则，研究结果表明，中央银行在调整名义利率时的确对金融稳定状况有所关注，相比于传统泰勒规则，纳入金融稳定指数的泰勒规则中通胀系数与产出缺口系数均有显著改善，其能够更好地拟合中央银行的实际政策操作。随后，为了进一步考察货币当局对名义利率调整的动态变化特征，文章通过TVP-SV-VAR模型对拓展的时变参数泰勒规则进行了再估计。研究发现，随着经济周期和金融形势的更迭，中央银行也会不断动态调整其政策目标。其中，货币政策对通货膨胀的调控不存在明显的惰性区域，控制通胀始终是中央银行工作的重心。其次，中央银行存在规避经济收缩的偏好，在经济下行时期其对货币政策的调整会向产出缺口倾斜。最后，为了抑制金融机构的过度风险承担，货币当局在本次金融危机之后显著增强了对于金融稳定的关注。     

金融稳定与经济稳定均衡的货币政策反应规则研究

文章从金融机构破产风险的角度,把银行系统作为金融稳定问题的中心,研究了货币政策和金融稳定相互作用问题。以基差风险为切入点,从理论上论证了宏观经济稳定和金融稳定之间存在均衡解,但是过高的基差风险权重系数可能导致宏观经济不稳定;并且综合了滞后变量和利率期货前瞻性变量,对泰勒规则进行了扩展,构建了新的理论模型并做出评价。这为保持金融市场稳定和制定货币政策拓宽了新的视野。     

金融开放、金融发展与经济增长：数据分析及政策启示

本文利用一个涵盖130个国家和地区、20世纪90年代后半期的数据集来验证如下命题：金融开放促进金融发展并推动经济增长。研究表明,上述因果链具有显著性、重要性和稳健性。此外,一国金融开放与该国法律体制之间存在辩证关系,一方面,那些法律体制不完善的国家可以通过金融开放来促进本国市场化进程与经济发展;但另一方面,金融开放步伐还要受制于一国法律体制的完善程度,这在应对国际金融危机的今天尤为重要。     

沿边经济增长的驱动机制——基于PVAR模型研究

中国沿边地区具有较大的开放潜力和发展空间,是解决中国区域发展不平衡的关键,有助于中国形成对外开放新格局.文章基于2013-2018年沿边106个边境县市的经济数据,对沿边地区经济增长的驱动因素进行向量自回归模型(PVAR模型)实证分析,并将沿边开发开放政策实施前后的驱动因素变化进行对比,探索产业转型升级、消费、财政、固定资产投资等内在因素以及政策环境的外部因素对沿边地区经济增长驱动机制的影响,提出相应的政策建议.     

Asset Prices, Monetary Policy and Macroeconomic Stability

This article discusses the role of asset prices in the conduct of monetary policy when the ultimate goal is to maintain price stability and limit fluctuations in real income. It is argued that judicious interpretation of asset price movements can provide information about the risks of future macroeconomic imbalances, and that this information should be utilized in monetary policy decisions. Simulations results from both theoretical and empirical models support the conceptual argument. It is stressed that policy reactions to asset prices must not follow a mechanical rule, since the appropriate response depends on the underlying shock.     

International Monetary and Financial Arrangements: Present and Future

The paper deals with a broad range of topics under the rubric of the international monetary system: exchange rate agreements, International Monetary Fund structure, history and functioning of the European Monetary Union, monetary and fiscal policies adopted in recent years by different countries, with a special emphasis on central bank independence and inflation control, capital flows and cross-border assets growth and their influence on financial stability, and policy proposals to enhance financial stability. With more than four-fifths of world trade conducted under managed or full flexibility the present system can be regarded more as a flexible than a fixed exchange rate regime. EMU is a major institutional innovation; while its economic benefits have been amply discussed and perhaps exaggerated, the economic costs seem to have been underestimated. Financial liberalization has resulted in huge benefits to savers and borrowers as capital has tended to flow to its most productive uses around the world, but it has also led to fears that this has sharply reduced the effectiveness of monetary policy. This liberalization imposes a constraint on monetary policy in the sense that it forces a much higher degree of economic convergence than was true before.     

美国：财政政策VS货币政策

凯恩斯主义能否再度辉煌？ 三十多年前，美国前总统尼克松曾说，“现在，我们都是凯恩斯主义者。”三十年以来，弗里德曼的货币学说和理性预期等理论在八十年代后大行其道，没有多少人再跳出来做凯恩斯主义者了。直到2008年……     

EMU, Monetary Policy Interactions and Exchange Rate Stability

EMU leads to the elimination of monetary policy coordination failures within the euro area. Whether this translates into more transatlantic exchange rate stability depends on the origin of economic shocks. Martin's (1997) conclusion that EMU will lead to more stable exchange rates is shown to hold for both symmetric and asymmetric shocks in Europe, but not for shocks that originate outside Europe. The results remain valid when taking into account that the pre-EMU era was characterised by a Bundesbank-led ERM, rather than a free float. Finally, the results are checked for a future expansion of the euro area.     

金融危机与国际货币体系

从18世纪到现在，有过各种各样国际货币体系的变革。由于各国经济实力不平均，各国在国际货币体系中的地位不同，不同国家的货币具有不同的能量，类似一个太阳系，当今美元是主导货币，其他国家的货币是围绕美元的“行星”，这是国际货币体系的“太阳系”模式。这个太阳系不断地快速变化，每一个时代图像是不一样的，     

金融传染和现行国际货币体系

2 0世纪 90年代以来爆发的金融危机都表现出一定程度的传染性 ,金融传染成为金融危机的主要特征。金融传染的主要原因在于投资者信息的不对称和金融市场流动性的限制。金融传染国家的金融体系的脆弱性是导致金融传染的根本原因 ,而现行国际货币体系的缺陷加剧了金融传染的可能性。亚洲金融危机以来的改革国际货币体系的努力可能为将来防御金融传染作出贡献     

The Relative Importance of Monetary Policy,Uncertainty, and Financial Shocks

Open Economies Review - Motivated by recent research suggesting that uncertainty and financial shocks have become the most important sources of business cycle fluctuations, we assess the relative...     

Financial System Risk Tolerance Capacity and Economic Growth: Evidence from a Cross-country Analysis

This article develops a new indicator of financial system risk tolerance capacity to see how the financial risk management function mechanism reacts to economic growth by applying a system generalized method of moments estimation technique. Based on a sample of 49 countries for the period 1998–2011, we find that both bank and stock market risk tolerance capacity can significantly promote long-run economic growth through absorbing and bearing real economic risks. These findings indicate that financial system risk tolerance capacity, which provides a powerful trial and error system, has a positive effect on long-term growth. Therefore, the policy implication is that releasing controllable financial risks actively and moderately beforehand may support scientific and technological innovation, maintain financial stability and, finally, promote long-run economic growth.     

Trust,Financial Regulation,and Growth

Money and financial intermediation are important elements in economic growth. Both depend heavily on trust for their efficient working. In the second half of the twentieth century, trust was eroded and even broke down. Regulation replaced it. The welfare costs grew, and economic growth was damaged. The opposite happened in the move from mercantilism in the eighteenth century to small government and sound money in the nineteenth century. Growth was improved. Perhaps trust can be restored again.     

控制财政风险与金融风险的相互转化

大量的国际经济金融现象表明，财政风险与金融风险相互作用又相互转化，二者内在的相关性非常高。由于以公有制为主体的经济制度基础和以市场为导向的经济体制转轨的特殊背景，二者的相关性在我国的表现尤为突出。因此，不论是防范和化解财政风险，还是防范和化解金融风险，都必须充分考虑二者的相关性，并采取多种措施综合性地加以控制。     

New Financial Architectures and Legal Infrastructures: Toward a Corrected and Compensated International Monetary System

The international monetary system features a powerful subsystem of nations with an organized polyarchic economy—in other words, a market economy adjusted and balanced by government authorities to protect the market against forces operating within it but failing to abide by the rules (as in the defense of fair competition), in which excessive asymmetry runs the risk of toppling the system. The central bank is the body guaranteeing both stability and the system. However, globalization prevents the central banks from controlling the massive flows of derivatives. In the absence of a supranational authority, the only remedy realistically feasible today lies in the network of informal agreements among the leading economic powers—the G-7, G-8, and G-20 countries. These countries, on the one hand, intervene on a case-by-case (or crisis-by-crisis) basis and, on the other, strive to bring chaotic corrective and compensatory measures into a market dominated by “turbocapitalism” to ward off future crises. Their actions thus strengthen legal infrastructures and the information flows that ensure transparency and involve financially sound nations, weak nations, international organizations, assorted classes of operators, and major private institutions.     

Exchange Rate Stability and Financial Stability

Historical evidence reveals no monocausal explanation for banking crises, including one which would emphasize the maintenance of a currency peg. To some extent this follows from the standard textbook wisdom: whether fixed or flexible exchange rates are preferable depends on the source of disturbances. If threats to the stability of the banking system come from the “outside,” there is a case for exchange rate flexibility to discourage the banks from relying excessively on external sources of finance and to enhance the capacity of the domestic authorities to act as lenders of last resort. Conversely, if the main threats to the stability of the banking system emanate from “inside” (e.g., erratic monetary policies at home), there is an argument for attempting to peg the exchange rate in order to discipline domestic policymakers and vent shocks via the external sector. From this point of view, it is no surprise that there is no simple correlation between the exchange rate regime and the prevalence of banking crises.     

Financial Deepening and Economic Growth Linkages: A Panel Data Analysis

The paper examines whether a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth exists employing panel integration and cointegration techniques for a dynamic heterogeneous panel of 15 OECD and 50 non-OECD countries over the period 1975–2000. Three different measures of financial deepening are used to capture the variety of different channels through which financial development can affect growth. Our findings support the existence of a single long-run equilibrium relation between financial deepening, economic growth and a set of control variables. Further, the evidence points to a bi-directional causality between financial deepening and growth. JEL no. O11, O16, C33