发展中国家技术创新的特点及其对策

发展中国家的技术创新活动表现出两个明显的特点：其一,模仿和适应创新替代原生性创新;其二,政府主导创新,从战后发展中国家的实践来看,影响发展中国家实现有效技术创新的关键性因素主要有两个方面：创新的技术能力和创新诱导的反应机制,政府在技术创新活动中的地位和作用是值得肯定的,但是处于不同发展层次的发展中国家和地区的政府应采取的创新政策和进行的创新活动仍然具有一定的差异。     

Twin Deficits in Developing Economies

Open Economies Review - This paper provides new evidence of the existence and magnitude of the “twin deficits” in developing economies. It finds that 1 % of GDP unanticipated increase...     

Endogenous Comparative Advantages in Developing Economies

This paper focusses on endogenous comparative advantages in developing countries, in particular on labour reallocation from low-productivity informal sectors into high-productivity formal sectors. This mechanism is important for two reasons. First, it contributes to the growth potential of developing countries and the absorption capacity for further capital accumulation. Second, labour reallocation will keep developing economies specialized in low-skilled intensive products in the coming decades and it will keep the wages of low-skilled workers low. We analyse this mechanism by simulating an increase in the skill intensity of developing countries the coming decades. These simulations are carried out with WorldScan, a dynamic AGE model of the world economy. An increasing skill intensity in LDCs will stimulate the global supply of high-skilled intensive products more than the supply of low-skilled intensive products, but to a much lesser extent than one would expect in static analyses or in absence of informal sectors.     

发展中国家开放经济的度量与特点

在世界经济全球化、一体化的背景下,发展中国家必须实行经济国际化.经济理论与发展实践证明,采取适度、渐进开放的方式,参与国际竞争与合作,是发展中国家实现持续、均衡经济增长和全面社会进步的重要前提条件.     

Making Globalization Inclusive: Job Creation and Wage Inequality in Developing Economies

Open Economies Review -     

Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?

This paper demonstrates that developing countries differ considerably from their developed counterparts when focus is on the nature and characteristics of short-run macroeconomic fluctuations. Cycles are generally shorter, and the stylized facts of business cycles across countries are more diverse than those of the rather uniform industrialized countries. Supply-side models are generally superior in explaining changes in output, but a “one-size fits all” approach in formulating policy is inappropriate. Our results also illustrate the critical importance of understanding business regularities as a stepping-stone in the process of designing appropriate stabilization policy and macroeconomic management in developing countries.     

全球化挑战发展中国家经济

学术界对全球化的研究由来已久.从最初对"帝国主义"的研究开始,霍布森、熊彼特和列宁都曾经对全球化的进程作过论述.到今天,"帝国主义"已经很少有人再提了,取而代之的是"全球化"这个词.     

The Largest Trans-nationals of Developing Economies

Industrial concentration is broadly defined as a few firms controlling a substantial share of assets or sales of the market. In the multinational industrial sector, this paper shows that the largest 50 and 100 in the developing economies control substantial amounts of assets and sales, both foreign and total. Two well known indexes of concentration were used, the Herfindahl and Theil’s entropy, to check the levels of concentration between 1994 and 2003 for the top 50 and between 2004 and 2006 for the top 100. It was found that although the sizes of the multinationals in assets and sales increased during the period, the relative concentration remained somewhat static.     

Twentieth Century Shocks, Trends and Cycles in Industrialized Nations

Using annual data on real Gross Domestic Product per capita of seventeen industrialized nations in the twentieth century the empirical relevance of shocks, trends and cycles is investigated. A class of neural network models is specified as an extension of the class of vector autoregressive models in order to capture complex data patterns for different countries and subperiods. Empirical evidence indicates nonlinear positive trends in the levels of real GDP per capita, time varying growth rates, switching behavior of individual countries with respect to their position in the distribution of real GDP per capita levels over time. Such evidence presents challenges for economic modelling, forecasting and policy analysis for the long run.     

适用于发展中国家的就业一般理论

由于前提假设的差异，新古典的和凯恩斯主久的失业理论都不能适用于发展中国家。而含有二元经济假设的刘易斯模型虽然适用于发展中国家，却不具有一般性。本文引入资本不足和不变生存工资两个经典的理论假设，构造了一个颇具一般性的均衡模型，不仅可以适用于发达国家，而且适用于发展中国家。     

Services Policy Reform and Economic Growth in Transition Economies

Major changes have occurred in the structure of former centrally planned economies, including a sharp rise in the share of services in GDP, employment, and international transactions. However, large differences exist across transition economies with respect to services intensity and services policy reforms. We find that reforms in policies toward financial and infrastructure services, including telecommunications, power, and transport, are highly correlated with inward FDI. Controlling for regressors commonly used in the growth literature, we find that measures of services policy reform are statistically significant explanatory variables for the post-1990 economic performance of transition economies. These findings suggest services policies should be considered more generally in empirical analyses of economic growth. JEL no. F14, F43, O14, O40     

Public Debt and Economic Growth in Emerging Market Economies

This paper empirically studies the relationship between public debt and economic growth for selected emerging market economies by performing panel data estimations. The results reveal a statistically significant positive correlation between public debt and the subsequent growth rate of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). Population and investment are also positively correlated with per capita growth, whereas the initial level of real GDP per capita exerts a negative influence on growth, implying conditional convergence. Other variables such as the inflation rate, the trade balance or the exchange rate do not yield a statistically significant effect with respect to economic growth.     

Non-linearities in Real Interest Rate Parity: Evidence from OECD and Asian Developing Economies

Abstract

This paper investigates the validity real interest rate parity (RIP) for a sample of 19 OECD and Asian developing economies. The distinction of this paper is that we exploit both linearity and non-linear unit root tests as advocated by Dufrénot et al. (Applied Economics, 38, pp. 203–229, 2006) to validate the parity. The major finding are: (i) the alignments from real interest rate differentials (RIDs) are corrected in a non-linear fashion and that the adjustments is asymmetric in both size and speed; (ii) that RIP holds for the developed and developing countries; and (iii) the empirical results are invariant with respect to the US, Japan or Germany as the centre country.     

地区经济的平衡增长和模式选择

在地区经济发展出现多个收敛的俱乐部现象之后,如何实现地区经济的平衡发展已成为当前我国构建和谐社会的重要课题。本文运用经济增长模型对我国地区经济发展状况进行分析,并进一步指出实现地区经济平衡增长的关键在于根据自身要素分布的特点与经济发展的水平建立起相应的工业经济发展模式。     

东亚新兴经济体经济周期特征分析

东亚新兴经济体经济周期的波动性有不断减弱的趋势,但在一些突发事件如东南亚金融危机等事件的影响下,经济波动可能会加剧。东亚经济周期波动是非对称的,且大多数国家(地区)的非对称性都表现为经济周期波动的上升阶段长于下降阶段。进入20世纪90年代,尤其是2000年后,东亚新兴经济体的经济周期波动呈现了较强的相关性和同步性,2001年以后,东亚新兴经济体与世界经济周期波动之间也呈现出较强的同步性。