Forecasting retail sales using alternative models

This paper explores the issues associated with adapting forecasting techniques used by manufacturers to produce accurate forecasts for retail sales. A case study is presented that is developed using a retail situation because retailers often view their sales forecasting problems as being very different from a manufacturer's problems. Sales volumes are dramatically impacted by competitor promotional actions, discounts, store promotions and weather. Finally, consumption holidays like Christmas, Easter, Mother's day, have a large impact on sales as well as back to school shopping. The findings in this paper indicate that forecasting retail sales can be accomplished with a high degree of accuracy.     

Determinants of sales manager job satisfaction. An analysis of Spanish industrial firms

The objective of the current work is to analyse the determining factors of sales manager job satisfaction. In particular, we study the effect of various human resources management (HRM) practices – compensation, promotion, training and job design – on this satisfaction, using a model empirically tested on a sample of Spanish industrial firms. The results of the empirical analysis of the model, which uses data from a postal survey, indicate that human resources practices based on compensation – level and type – as well as on the job design – resources and autonomy – appear to be the fundamental determinants of sales manager job satisfaction. In the research we confirm that there is a growing need for firms to combine economic and non-economic incentives in order to satisfy their executives.     

美国的服装零售系统给予中国的借鉴

1.国内服装零售系统的现状分析 所谓服装零售系统是指将服装及其所有权转移到消费者的所有活动的一系列组织机构.服装零售系统不仅包括大量的零售商,还包括批发商、代理商等.     

浅谈零售创新

零售创新是在现今激烈竞争市场下零售经营者通过一系列的变革挖掘盈利机会.主要特征表现在经营理念的科学性、营销策划的持续性、来店顾客的参与性.     

Concentration of competing retail stores

The geographical concentration of stores that sell similar commodities is analyzed using a two-dimensional spatial competition model. A higher concentration of stores attracts more consumers with taste uncertainty and low price expectations (a market-size effect), while it leads to fiercer price competition (a price-cutting effect). Our model is general enough to allow for the coexistence of multiple (possibly) asymmetric clusters of stores. We provide sufficient conditions for the nonemptiness of equilibrium store location choices in pure strategies. Through numerical examples, we illustrate the trade-off between the market-size and price-cutting effects, and provide agglomeration patterns of stores in special cases.     

The economics of retail firms

This paper identifies retail firms as an economic institution which delivers explicit products or services to consumer together with a variety of distribution services that determine the levels of distribution costs experienced by consumers in their purchase activities. The demand for the retailer's product is derived from a household production model in which the levels of distribution services provided by the retailer play the role of fixed inputs in the household's production functions. The supply of the retailer's product is derived from a joint cost function which is non-decreasing in the levels of distribution services provided. Profit-maximizing behavior in monopolistically competive markets shows that retail firms have special economic incentives to become complex organizations by integrating backwards, offering multiple explicit products and operating in more than one market. In addition, monopolistically competitive retail firms in long-run equilibrium will exhibit excess capacity, price dispersion and product choice in distribution services.     

中国机场零售业的发展

中国机场零售业 是一座有待深入挖掘的"金矿" 2002～2006年,中国机场(不含港、澳、台)服务收入年均增长4.4%,大大低于旅客吞吐量增长率(1 8%),这在很大程度说明非航空性业务收入增长缓慢.     

Concentration of competing retail stores

The geographical concentration of stores that sell similar commodities is analyzed using a two-dimensional spatial competition model. A higher concentration of stores attracts more consumers with taste uncertainty and low price expectations (a market-size effect), while it leads to fiercer price competition (a price-cutting effect). Our model is general enough to allow for the coexistence of multiple (possibly) asymmetric clusters of stores. We provide sufficient conditions for the nonemptiness of equilibrium store location choices in pure strategies. Through numerical examples, we illustrate the trade-off between the market-size and price-cutting effects, and provide agglomeration patterns of stores in special cases.     

Labour-management partnership in the non-union retail sector

Analysts and policy advocates have argued that a meaningful labour-management partnership can be established in the absence of trade unions. In this paper we have examined employee outcomes of partnership in a medium-sized non-union retail firm, regarded as one of the ‘best practice’ cases of non-union partnership by the Involvement and Participation Association (IPA) of the UK. We have also compared the employee outcomes from our case study firm with those from a representative sample of retail sector workers from unionized and non-union retail firms in the UK. Findings indicate that compared to employees in other retail-sector firms, workers in the ‘best practice’ partnership firm were significantly disadvantaged with respect to their influence over workplace and policy decisions with little evidence of ‘mutual gains’ as claimed by partnership advocates.     

Classification-based model selection in retail demand forecasting

Retailers supply a wide range of stock keeping units (SKUs), which may differ for example in terms of demand quantity, demand frequency, demand regularity, and demand variation. Given this diversity in demand patterns, it is unlikely that any single model for demand forecasting can yield the highest forecasting accuracy across all SKUs. To save costs through improved forecasting, there is thus a need to match any given demand pattern to its most appropriate prediction model. To this end, we propose an automated model selection framework for retail demand forecasting. Specifically, we consider model selection as a classification problem, where classes correspond to the different models available for forecasting. We first build labeled training data based on the models’ performances in previous demand periods with similar demand characteristics. For future data, we then automatically select the most promising model via classification based on the labeled training data. The performance is measured by economic profitability, taking into account asymmetric shortage and inventory costs. In an exploratory case study using data from an e-grocery retailer, we compare our approach to established benchmarks. We find promising results, but also that no single approach clearly outperforms its competitors, underlying the need for case-specific solutions.     

Considerations of a retail forecasting practitioner

Forecasts can be used in an extraordinarily diverse range of ways across many domains in which forecasting practitioners work continuously towards improving their forecasts. Each of these domains may require the analysis of different kinds of inputs and special considerations. Even within a given domain, such as retail, there may be many similar use cases of the same kind of forecast, which can lead to practitioners making different decisions. This paper discusses several of the important decision points that practitioners must work through and uses item-level sales forecasting in the retail domain as leveraged by pricing and inventory management as examples of the different paths that may be taken. It considers how each use can lead to a different forecasting objective, and a corresponding focus on different error metrics. In addition, there are several tradeoffs in the forecasting methods that are used to meet each of the objectives best, including the kinds of models used, the running time speed, and forecast accuracy requirements.     

Environmental selection and retail change

In Finland and the other Nordic countries the debate on structural change in retail trade has been mainly concentrated at the macro-level. Reasons for the changes have been sought in the economic, technological and social structures, and in changes in these structures. Committees and others connected with community planning have played a central role in the debate. Considering the extent of the debate, there has been relatively little real research, and the various studies have generally been based on a limited number of variables.In view of the social importance of retail trade, it might seem surprising that researchers have shown so little interest in the structural changes in retail trade and in the results of such changes. The explanation probably lies in the lack of theory, and maybe also in problems connected with the availability of material.Research now needs to focus more on individual stores. This article presents a study intended to re-focus the debate on structural change in retail trade by studying the reasons for the closure or survival of operations in the rural store. The results emphasize external factors: the environment selects those stores that are best suited to its purposes.     

Asset sales and takeover threats

This research addresses the question of whether the existence of a recent takeover threat affects the market reaction to a subsequent sale of assets. The effect of a prior takeover threat on the stock price reaction to an asset sale is examined from the perspective of both the buying firm and the selling firm. The total gains to the transaction are estimated as a market weighted average of the abnormal returns to the two firms. The results show that when there has not been a recent takeover threat on the selling firm, abnormal returns are significantly positive for the seller, the buyer and in total. However, if the selling firm has faced a takeover threat within the previous year, the abnormal returns upon announcement of an asset sale are insignificant for the seller, negative for the buyer, and negative for a portfolio of the two. Hence, the market has a lower estimate of the overall gains in transactions that follow takeover threats on the selling firm; in fact, these transactions result in a net wealth reduction.     

Social preferences and sales performance

We use an incentivized experimental game to uncover heterogeneity in social preferences among salespeople in a large Austrian retail chain. Our results show that the majority of agents take the welfare of others into account but a significant fraction reveal selfish behavior. Matching individual behavior in the game with firm data on sales performance shows that agents with social preferences achieve a significantly higher revenue per customer. However, at the same time, they achieve fewer sales per day. Both effects offset each other, so that the overall association with total sales revenue becomes insignificant. Our findings highlight the nuanced role of selfish versus social preferences in sales contexts with important implications for economic research.     

Conducting a sales forecasting audit

Continuous improvement in sales forecasting is a worthy goal for any organization. This paper describes a methodology for conducting a sales forecasting audit, the goal of which is to help a company understand the status of its sales forecasting processes and identify ways to improve those processes. The methodology described here has been developed over a 5-year period, involving multiple auditors, and has been implemented (to date) at 16 organizations. This methodology revolves around three distinct phases: the ‘as-is’ phase, in which the audit team seeks to understand fully a company’s current forecasting process; the ‘should-be’ phase, in which the audit team presents a vision of what world-class forecasting should look like at the audited company, and the ‘way-forward’ phase, in which the audit team presents a roadmap of how the company can change its forecasting processes to achieve world-class levels. Those companies that have responded positively to the audit process have experienced significant improvement in their forecasting performance. The paper concludes by presenting lessons from audits conducted to date, as well as implications for management practice and future research.     

Use prices as sales agents

We use a monopoly model with consumer heterogeneity to study the profitability of group buying, in which the discounted price is offered to consumers if more than a certain number of them agree to make purchases. We find that group buying generally outperforms intertemporal pricing but is outperformed by a referral reward program. The optimal minimum requirement depends on parameters. If a consumer and her invitee have homogeneous preference and there is no discount of future utility, a pricing strategy characterized by the low (medium) minimum requirement is always dominated by high minimum requirement, whose profit coincides with one-person group buying.