Choice Certainty and Consistency in Repeated Choice Experiments

The main objective of this study is to examine how repeated choice affects preference learning in stated preference experiments. We test different hypotheses related to preference learning by analyzing response patterns and asking respondents in a choice experiment to report their experienced certainty when going through the choice tasks. In a split-sample test, we show that follow-up choice certainty questions are procedural invariant. The self-reported certainty results indicate that learning occurs, but econometric testing procedures do not identify any significant impact of learning effects on parameter estimates or variance across choice tasks. Additional tests of choice consistency suggest that preferences in the choice experiment are stable and coherent.     

Choice and individual welfare

We propose an abstract method of systematically assigning a “rational” ranking to non-rationalizable choice data. Our main idea is that any method of ascribing welfare to an individual as a function of choice is subjective, and depends on the economist undertaking the analysis. We provide a simple example of the type of exercise we propose. Namely, we define an individual welfare functional as a mapping from stochastic choice functions into weak orders. A stochastic choice function (or choice distribution) gives the empirical frequency of choices for any possible opportunity set (framing factors may also be incorporated into the model). We require that for any two alternatives x and y, if our individual welfare functional recommends x over y given two distinct choice distributions, then it also recommends x over y for any mixture of the two choice distributions. Together with some mild technical requirements, such an individual welfare functional must weight every opportunity set and assign a utility to each alternative x which is the sum across all opportunity sets of the weighted probability of x being chosen from the set. It therefore requires us to have a “prior view” about how important or representative a choice of x at a given situation is.     

Occupational Choice and Dynamic Incentives

We study an overlapping generations version of the principal-agent problem, where incentive contracts are determined in general equilibrium. All individuals are workers when young, but have a choice between becoming entrepreneurs or remaining workers when old. Imperfections in the credit market give rise to rents in entrepreneurial activities involving capital. These rents motivate poor young agents to work hard and save to overcome the borrowing constraints. With a labour market that is subject to moral hazard, the increased effort raises social welfare. Policies that reduce credit market imperfections, or redistribute income, may reduce welfare by dampening this effect.     

次优选择与渐进转轨

主流经濂学经过长期的发展已为经济学研究提供了精巧的范式和方法,但自２０世纪９０年代开始却面临着转轨经济的严峻 流经济学崇尚的是市场的力量和最优选择理念的话,那么,转轨经济则凸显的是次优选择哲学。因此转轨经这便是次优选择经济学。中国的渐进改革是一个典型的由多重次优选择（诸如拨改贷、价格双轨制、乡镇企业、财政包干、金融控制、国有股安排以及债转股等）叠加而成的过程。不研究次优选择便难以理解中国的渐进改革     

社会互动与投资选择

个体的投资选择是否受到社会互动的影响?社会互动的作用机制是什么?采用2005年中国12城市投资者行为调查数据,本文发现,总体而言,社会互动推动了个体当前和未来期望对银行存款、外汇、股票、债券、期货、基金、借出、做生意、保险金、收藏品、房地产、理财产品、彩票等投资项目的参与。社会互动的积极作用主要是通过个体遵循参考群体成员的投资选择所体现的社会规范来实现的。此外,内生互动带来的感受交流和信息获得分别推动了个体当前对保险金和未来期望对债券的投资,而情景互动降低了个体未来参与股市的期望。     

Austrian Economics and Public Choice

The Review of Austrian Economics -     

异质性与跨国公司的战略选择

新新贸易理论将公司异质性引入到国际贸易理论中,从微观层面解释了公司国际化的战略选择。但它们通常假定两国是同质的,所以公司国际化的选择仅局限于出IZl贸易和水平型直接投资。本文构建了三国模型,考察了跨国公司的三种战略选择模式。理论研究表明,生产率最高的公司选择水平型直接投资,生产率较高的公司选择出口平台直接投资,生产率较低的公司选择出口贸易,生产率最低的公司只供应国内市场。发达国家的相对工人工资水平越高、发展中国家建厂成本越小,选择出口和水平型直接投资的公司会越少,而选择出口平台的直接投资公司会越多。     

Trade Liberalization and Technology Choice

This paper considers the links between trade liberalization and technology choice in the nonliberalizing country. Trade‐liberalization‐induced changes in relative product prices have direct effects on equilibrium relative factor returns. The consequent changes in relative input costs may also lead producers to switch to alternative technologies, which will in turn induce a further indirect change in relative factor returns. Will this indirect affect exacerbate or ameliorate the direct effect on relative factor returns? It is found that this depends on the relative cost savings across sectors and factor cost shares.     

Choice, habit and evolution

Several leading mainstream economists including Gary Becker have treated habit as serially correlated behaviour resulting from deliberate choices. This approach puts choice before habit but involves assumptions of extensive memory and decision-making capacity. By contrast, earlier authors such as William James, John Dewey and Thorstein Veblen saw deliberation and choice as a contingent outcome of habits, where the latter are defined in terms of acquired dispositions rather than overt behaviour. The approach of this second group is more consistent with an evolutionary perspective and the limited computational capacities of the human brain.     

Asynchronous Choice and Markov Equilibria

We provide a theoretical foundation for the use of Markov strategies in repeated games with asynchronous moves. If admissible strategies must display finite (arbitrarily long) memory and each player incurs a “complexity cost” which depends on the memory length required by her strategy, then every Nash equilibrium must be in Markovian strategies. If, in addition, admissible strategies have uniformly bounded memory, every rationalizable strategy must be Markovian. These results are robust to considerations of perfection and also yield interesting implications for equilibrium selection in simple contexts. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, C73.     

The Supporting Line Property and the Additive Choice Function for Two-Dimensional Choice Problems

The paper provides an axiomatic characterization of the additive choice function using the additivity property. It is seen that, along with Pareto optimality, symmetry, and a supporting line property, the additivity axiom uniquely characterizes the additive choice function. The additive choice function as defined in this paper does not satisfy Nash's assumption of the independence of irrelevant alternatives. This raises the question of when a choice function is representable, an issue addressed in an appendix.     

初选阶段知识联盟成员评价与选择模型

根据知识联盟成员选择与形成的实际过程,将知识联盟成员的选择分为初选和谈判(精选)两个阶段。在综合国外联盟实践经验及影响联盟成败的实证性研究结论的基础上,分析了知识联盟成员初选阶段影响联盟成败的关键变量,以此构建了知识联盟成员初选模型,并依据指标间的相互关系,提出了基于二值变量的初选阶段评价方法。     

The Impact of Choice Inconsistencies in Stated Choice Studies

A new test procedure revealing mutuallyinconsistent choices has been developed andapplied to Stated Choice data. Our analysisshows that inconsistent choices commonly occurin several Stated Choice tasks. An applicationof the test to the Norwegian Value of Timestudy data shows that failing to excludeinconsistent choices resulted in asubstantially higher Value of time. Theinconsistent choices were made by less educatedparticipants. As the tasks were undertaken inthe easy context of choosing travelalternatives with three attributes,practitioners of more complex and cognitivedemanding designs should be particularilyconcerned with these results.     

中国已婚妇女人工流产中的性别选择

利用2001年全国计划生育/生殖健康调查数据,分析了育龄妇女进行人工流产选择的几种可能性,包括终止再生育、时间选择和性别选择等。在缺乏必要的B超检查等手段与性别选择流产数据的情况下,以流产后子女性别为指标,探讨了人工流产与性别选择的关系,比较了曾生子女的性别和不同生育政策对于人工流产的性别选择的影响。     

次级经济中心的选择与发展——以重庆直辖市为例

选取合适的次级中心,增强中心城市的辐射能力是现实可行的发展路径。对重庆各次级城市的经济发展水平、区位条件和发展环境进行综合评价,可以把万州、涪陵和永川确定为重庆市的次级中心城市。各次级中心城市应根据国家两部和重庆发展战略,及时调整完善发展方向和产业定位,主动接受重庆的辐射。     

基于离散选择模型的顾客选择偏好分析

准确把掌握细分市场上消费者的需求和选择偏好是企业获取较好市场回报的关键.本文以访谈和调查问卷的数据信息为基础,针对消费者个体特征方面的多个因素变量,运用离散选择模型,研究对液态奶制品的某个特征因素作为首选因素的影响分析.同时,针对消费者某一特征因素对液态奶的多个特征因素的选择偏好的影响,给出了基于Logit模型和SPSS软件的统计分析和合理解释.通过对液体奶制品消费者的个体特征和选择液态奶的某一特定因素为首选因素的关系分析,以及顾客选择偏好方面的探讨,为我国液态奶制品供应链在目标市场的选择方面提供了一些启示.     

关于"择校问题"的思考

学生和家庭自由选择学校是受教育权利题中应有之义。义务教育阶段“依法实 行就近入学”的规定不仅使择校成为“非法”,而且使择校和一系列不良社会 问题联系在一起,形成一个所谓“择校问题”。关注儿童少年就近入学的权利 应把目光投向农村。在大中城市,择校和就近入学并不一定形成对立。因此, 处理“择校问题”的正确路向应是进行基础教育体制创新。在体制创新过程中 应充分尊重和发挥基层的主动性、创造性,同时美、英等国在新一轮基础教育 改革中,扩大学生和家庭选择学校的权利、将市场竞争机制引入公立学校系统 等做法和思路应该能给我们很多启示。     

就业再选择与劳动力市场效率

本文认为就业再选择是劳动力市场的基本特征。通过就业再选择使企业内部劳动力市场与外部劳动力市场连接在一起而成为一个整体。劳动者进行就业再选择的频度和难易程度,决定企业内外劳动力市场一体化的程度和劳动力市场的效率水平。因此,企业的人力资源管理,则必须摆脱“员工属于组织”的传统观念,以员工的就业再选择为出发点,并且,促进劳动者进行就业再选择才是建立健全劳动力市场机制的根本途径。     

Portfolio Choice and Liquidity Constraints*

We study the infinite‐horizon model of household portfolio choice under liquidity constraints and revisit the portfolio specialization puzzle. We show why the puzzle is robust to several model variations, and argue that positive correlation between earnings shocks and stock returns is unlikely to provide an empirically plausible resolution. We find that relatively small fixed costs for stock market entry are sufficient to deter stockholding because, for a plausible range of parameter values, households can achieve desired consumption smoothing with small or zero holdings of stocks. Such costs could arise from informational considerations, sign‐up fees, and investor inertia.