Strategic Interactions Among Central Bank and National Fiscal Authorities in a Monetary Union Subject to Asymmetric Country Shocks

In this paper we extend Nordhaus’ (Brookings Pap Econ Act (2):139–199, 1994) results to an environment which may represent the current European situation, characterised by a single monetary authority and several fiscal bodies. We show that, even assuming that the monetary and the fiscal authorities share the same ideal targets, in the presence of asymmetric shocks the “symbiosis” result found by Dixit and Lambertini (J Int Econ 60:235–247, 2003) no longer obtains. Thus, fiscal rules as those envisaged in the Maastricht Treaty and in the Stability and Growth Pact may work as monetary/fiscal coordination devices that improve welfare. The imposition of common targets, however, may work as a substitute for policy coordination only if these are made state contingent, an aspect that the recent version of the Stability and Growth Pact takes into account in a more appropriate way than its original version.

VATs in CEE Countries: A Survey and Analysis

Ten Central and Eastern European countries have applied for membership of the European Union (EU). The adoption of the value-added tax (VAT) is a nonnegotiable condition. Accordingly, all these countries have introduced the VAT which, in principle, is a highly product-neutral, factor-neutral and revenue-productive tax. A review of the structures of the various VATs indicates that more can be done to tax public sector bodies and cultural services. In some countries, immovable property and the agricultural sector can be treated more even-handedly. However, the most important structural weakness of the VATs is the exemption and lower taxation of so-called essential products. VATs are ill-suited to enhance progressivity in tax burden distribution. It is concluded that policymakers should now focus their attention on improving the administration of their VATs. As in many other countries, tax policy often is tax administration.     

Farmers, Vertical Coordination, and the Restructuring of Dairy Supply Chains in Central and Eastern Europe

The combination of transition and globalization since the early 1990s has caused dramatic changes in the dairy chains in Central and Eastern Europe. This paper uses survey evidence from several Central and East European countries to document the growth of vertical coordination in the dairy chain, its relationship with policy reforms, its effects and the implications for small farms. Evidence suggests that in several countries small dairy farms have benefited from vertical coordination processes by providing them access to inputs and higher value markets.     

中东欧国家数字经济的现状与前景

中东欧国家未来的经济发展在很大程度上将取决于能否有效利用数字化带来的机遇,实现经济的数字化转型。中东欧国家除爱沙尼亚之外,其经济的数字化水平均落后于欧盟老成员国。中东欧国家工业化离不开数字化。近年来,中东欧国家高度重视工业4.0,通过了工业4.0战略或倡议,希望实现工业的数字化,提升各自国家工业的竞争力,避免成为第四次工业革命的落伍者。数字化能否成为中东欧国家的增长引擎非常值得关注。     

Fiscal policy independence in a European Monetary Union

Do plans for a monetary union in Europe call for limits on the freedom of the country members of the union to use fiscal policy? In order to provide a tentative answer, we simulate the IMF model MULTIMOD, given various shocks, in the case of a European Monetary Union consisting only of France and Germany. The results clearly indicate the possible value of allowing unfettered use of fiscal policy in both countries. The reasons lie partly in differences in the initial position of the two, partly in differences in their preferences. We also examine the change in the policy significance of the current account in the monetary union. Current account imbalances clearly cease to have the same significance in a monetary union; but they do not therefore become irrelevant.     

Fiscal Leadership and Coordination in the EMU

We analyze the role of fiscal-monetary policy interactions and fiscal coordination in EMU under the assumption of strategic wage setting in unionized labour markets. We find that production subsidies and real wage distortions are strategic complements. The literature on macroeconomic stabilisation policies and policy games usually neglects this point and reaches overoptimistic conclusions about the desirable effects of accommodating fiscal policies. Central bank preferences also affect the desirability of fiscal coordination in a monetary union. In fact, contrary to Beetsma and Bovenberg (1998), we find that fiscal coordination improves outcomes in the case of a conservative central banker, whereas it leads to worse outcomes with a populist one.

Two-Country Models of Monetary and Fiscal Policy: What Have We Learned? What More Can We Learn?

This paper surveys the literature that uses two-country models to analyze monetary and fiscal policy issues faced in interdependent economies. We discuss sources of structural interdependence that researchers typically include in these models. We describe many of the types of policy interactions that researchers have considered and summarize the key results that they have obtained. Finally, we briefly explain the limitations of two-country models and outline directions that this literature might usefully be extended.     

Risk Related Non Linearities in Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Panel of Central and Eastern European Countries

This paper investigates the recent evolution of five Eastern European exchange rates. Our aim is twofold: to provide an up-to-date view of the predictability and main relations of spot rates with economic fundamentals and to derive some considerations about exchange rate regimes, capital flows, and risk appetite. We propose a non-linear specification where the non-linearity refers to the effect of the interest rate differential. The paper supports the view that given the relevance of capital flows and their sensitivity to risk adjusted yield differentials, the choice of exchange rate regime should be a matter of careful strategy.     

Trade in Parts and Components and the Industrial Geography of Central and Eastern European Countries

Growing inflows of FDI and the increasing integration of domestic firms into International Production Networks (IPNs) set up by EU-15 partners have yielded a rise in trade in parts and components for Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs). As a consequence, new patterns of localization of industrial activities have been observed in the region since the mid-1990s. In this paper, I propose a comprehensive model of trade and production which tries to explain cross-country variations of sectoral output by comparative advantages (Ricardo, Heckscher–Ohlin) and agglomeration forces (home market effect, market potential), with a focus on the role played by trade in middle products. The empirical implementation reveals that the higher is the involvement in IPNs the larger is the domestic share of regional output. Comparative advantages are a crucial determinant of localization as opposed to agglomeration forces. I argue that these results can be interpreted as an assessment of the predictive power of two alternative trade theories. JEL no.  F10, F12, F14, F15     

Fiscal stimulus and labor market dynamics in Japan

The paper studies the effects of fiscal expansion on the Japanese labor market. First, using a structural VAR model, we find that the unemployment rate falls and employment rises following an increase in government spending. We also find that fiscal expansion affects flows in and out of unemployment. While an increase in government spending increases the job-finding rate, it reduces the separation rate. We then incorporate search and matching frictions into a standard dynamic general equilibrium model, and study whether the model can explain what we observed in data. While the model fails to predict the exact size of the impact of government spending shocks on the Japanese labor market variables, it can consistently capture the empirical pattern of responses of labor market variables to shocks.     

The Long-run and Short-run Multipliers of Fiscal Policy in the Chinese Economy

To examine the long-run and short-run multipliers of fiscal policy in China, simple models with some basic characteristics of the Chinese economy are developed and then estimated using cointegration and error correction approaches. Empirical results confirm some similarities between the Chinese economy and well-developed market economies, but also uncover the unique features that China possesses, in terms of the multipliers of permanent and temporary changes in government spending, Okun's coefficient, and the short-run adjustment mechanism.     

Structural Asymmetries and the Optimal Monetary Policy Instrument of the European Central Bank

Although the existence of differences in economic structure across European countries is well known, their implications for the conduct of the single monetary policy in Stage Three of EMU have not yet been analyzed. This paper explores the issue on the basis of a two-country, rational-expectations, stochastic model characterized by asymmetric structural equations and a general formulation for monetary policy. Only if financial shocks are the main source of instability can heterogeneity in structures be neglected. When real shocks to aggregate demand prevail, their geographical distribution and the difference in the elasticity of aggregate supply are the key factors governing the response to structural differences. When supply shocks predominate, irrespective of their geographical distribution monetary policy should lean against the wind with more determination than if countries were identical. Differences in the transmission lag of monetary policy or some concern for growth when pursuing price stabilization reduce the size of the correction in monetary policy called for by structural asymmetries.     

江苏省科技创新财政政策研究

科技创新是实现发展的重要来源,财政政策在科技创新方面的作用近年来也受到越来越多的关注.在解读江苏省科技财政政策以及理论分析的基础上,对科技财政投入现状进行总结,发现江苏省目前在财政投入规模、区域差异、对高研的财政支持以及推动产学研合作等方面存在问题.最后,针对这些问题提出一些对策.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in the Euro Area with Different Assumptions on the Phillips Curve

In this paper we apply a static version of a New Keynesian macromodel to a monetary union (see Bofinger et al., J Econ Educ, 37:98–117 (2006), Walsh, J Econ Educ, 33:333–346 (2002)). We show in particular that a harmonious functioning of a monetary union critically depends on the correlation of shocks that hit the currency area. Additionally a high degree of integration in product markets is advantageous for the ECB as it prevents national interest rates from driving a wedge between macroeconomic outcomes across member states. In particular small countries are in need for fiscal policy as an independent stabilization agent with room to breath.

Local fiscal multipliers and population aging in Japan

This study examines how the effectiveness of fiscal policy depends on population aging. To this end, this study estimates the local fiscal multipliers in Japan. Results suggest that the estimated local fiscal multiplier on output is larger in non-aged areas than aged areas, and that the effects on the number of workers are not statistically significant in either area type. Additionally, the multipliers on private investment are only higher than one in non-aged prefectures. Results also indicate that the multiplier generated by an increase in government investment is larger than that in government consumption. These results indicate fewer slack resources in aged areas that can be mobilized in response to increased government spending.     

建立节能环保长效机制的财税政策研究

我国在促进节能环保方面尚未建立起一整套完善的财税体系。当前的财政政策对节约能源、资源,环境保护的投入和补贴支持力度不够;现行的税制体系由于其＂绿色化＂水平不高,起不到刺激绿色消费、节能环保的作用。文章从三个方面对我国促进节能环保方面的财税政策现状及问题进行了分析,并提出了相应的对策和建议。     

中东欧国家金融银行业开放过程中的潜在风险分析

20世纪90年代以来,中东欧国家先后实施了金融银行业对外开放政策。金融开放为中东欧国家金融银行业注入了活力,但同时也蕴含着很多问题和潜在风险,在全球金融危机的冲击下,这些问题和潜在风险已影响到这些国家的金融市场和银行体系的稳定。本文着重从过高的外币融资、过快增长的家庭信贷、过度依赖的间接融资,以及外资银行大量进入挤占内资银行市场份额等4个方面分析这些国家金融银行业潜在风险的形成过程。     

中小企业信用担保的总体情境与财政政策匹配

中小企业是支撑经济增长和社会发展的重要力量。在中小企业信用担保体系框架中,财政资金的杠杆作用日益凸显。财政支持中小企业信用担保政策备受关注。针对中小企业信用担保机构现阶段的发展特点,财政对中小企业信用担保行业的支持需要从提升功能、防范风险和改善环境三个方面着手,从而促进该体系担保功能的有效发挥,实现促进中小企业发展的政策目标。     

Policy Effectiveness in the Post-ERM Era: Evidence from Six Countries

The objective of this paper is to determine whether ERM-participating countries have experienced a change in the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policies since the establishment of the ERM. Countries which have come to rely more heavily on fiscal policy instruments as the means of output, price and exchange rate stabilization since the establishment of the ERM (and currently exceed the fiscal criteria) are expected to find the Maastricht fiscal criteria restrictive and perhaps destabilizing. We find that Belgium, Italy and Ireland are the countries that are likely to face the most difficulties.