中日韩三国服务贸易技术结构及其演进研究——基于出口复杂度的实证

本文通过测算2000-2011年中日韩3国服务贸易出口复杂度指数,对中日韩3国服务贸易出口技术结构的分布及演进进行了考察。结果显示:入世以来中国从以低技术为主、中高技术为辅的技术结构转变成以中高技术为主、低技术为辅的出口技术结构。虽然技术结构有所优化,但是服务出口"质"与"量"发展的并不协调,具有质低量多的"粗放型"发展特征。从技术水平的差距来看,中日差距较大,处于互补的态势,中韩比较接近竞争态势,进一步发现,在某些服务分项内,中韩服务出口表现出一定的互补性。最后,本文提出了中国提升服务出口技术水平及中日韩进一步合作的建议。     

中国服务贸易出口结构变动的实证分析

世界服务贸易结构发生了重大的变化,服务贸易的内涵不断加深,技术含量不断提高。本文在分析中国和世界服务贸易结构变化趋势的基础上,利用1999-2003年服务贸易出口数据对我国的服务贸易出口结构变动指数和结构收益指数进行了测度。结果表明中国服务贸易出口结构变动缓慢,劳动密集型和资源依赖型的服务贸易出口仍然占有绝对优势,尽管技术与资本密集型服务贸易出口增长迅速,但比重不高;中国服务贸易出口结构在不断优化,但优化幅度很小。     

我国服务贸易技术结构优化了吗?

本文运用技术含量指数STC对11类服务贸易的技术含量进行测度,结果显示,在1995-2007年期间,新兴服务贸易的金融、保险和专利及特许权服务技术含量较高,而旅游、运输和建筑服务技术含量偏低.我国服务贸易整体技术水平较低且技术结构分布呈现出尖塔型特征,即技术含量高的金融保险业出口规模小,而技术含量低的旅游和运输等行业出口规模大.同时,我国服务贸易技术结构优化程度有限,其国际竞争力并未随服务贸易量的增长而得到有效提升.     

我国服务贸易出口结构优化研究

20世纪90年代以来,服务贸易迅速发展,服务贸易占全球贸易的比重越来越高。本文基于服务贸易相关数据,运用各种指标进行定量分析。分析表明,服贸出口以劳动密集型产品为主,高附加值的知识、科技、资本密集型产品出口总额小,国际竞争力弱,得出我国服务贸易出口结构亟待优化的结论。最后,本文在总结指数分析我国服贸结构的基础上,对优化服务贸易出口结构提出了政策建议。     

基于技术附加值分布的我国出口商品结构地区比较

基于技术附加值分布的视角,本文对我国的出口商品结构进行了地区间的比较分析。结论表明:在样本期内,我国地区出口贸易的整体技术水平得到了大幅度提高,但是地区发展并不均衡,地区技术结构状况的"质"和"量"并不统一;我国加工贸易的技术水平整体要高于一般贸易水平,加工贸易大大提高了东部地区的技术水平,也提高了我国整体出口贸易的技术水平;在剔除了技术水平的普遍提高之后,出口技术结构高度化趋势呈现明显的"拱形"特征。从研究选取的11个地区来看,在2006年之前地区之间的相对出口技术结构差距逐步扩大,2006年之后差距逐渐缩小;上海、江苏的总贸易出口技术结构最优,北京、浙江的一般贸易出口技术结构最优。     

中国创意服务贸易国际竞争力比较研究——基于TC指数和相对(技术)复杂度指数

在分析中国创意服务贸易特征的基础上,运用贸易竞争力(TC)指数和相对(技术)复杂度指数,采用UNCTAD发布的最新统计数据,对中国以及世界其他五个国家的创意服务贸易的国际竞争力进行了比较研究。结果显示:我国创意服务贸易已具备一定的国际竞争力,在世界创意服务贸易的地位也不断提升,但是各分项发展很不平衡。因此,要加强对进出口市场的了解,优化出口结构,提高创意服务进口的技术水平,同时注重创意服务高端人才的培养与引进。     

分析我国服务贸易结构与贸易竞争力的实证分析

随着亚洲服务贸易的不断提高,我国服务贸易量比较大的金融、保险、通信、咨询等方面的技术与知识密集行业,也处在发展的初级阶段。我国服务贸易长时间逆差,并且区域发展失衡极其严重,东部沿海地区处于主导地位。所以,提高贸易竞争力,一定要积极优化、提高服务贸易结构,提升通讯服务,计算机及信息服务、保险服务、金融服务乃至专有权利使用费及特许费的知识技术密集型服务的比率,不断提高服务贸易出口结构,提高我国服务贸易的竞争力。     

中国高技术产品贸易特征及竞争力分析

目前,中国高技术产品贸易已经颇具规模,贸易总量大幅增长,连续十年保持顺差,但是区域发展不平衡,对外资依存度过高,技术研发投入偏少,仍处于国际产业链低端。选用贸易特化指数和出口结构相似指数对中国高技术产品的国际竞争力进行测度。得出结论:中国高技术产品贸易的贸易特化指数较低,表明国际竞争力较弱,中国和美国的贸易特化指数相似度较高,与金砖国家的出口结构较为相似。     

中、美服务贸易出口结构比较

1980年至2009年,我国服务贸易在总量增长的同时,出现持续逆差,与美国的持续顺差形成了鲜明对比.通过两国服务贸易出口比重、竞争力和结构变动指数的比较,找出了我国服务贸易出口结构不合理之处,进而提出了调整服务贸易出口结构的建议.     

数字经济发展对浙江省服务贸易出口结构优化的影响研究

数字经济作为一种新型经济形态正在迅猛发展，其对服务贸易发展模式和结构已产生深远影响。基于浙江省2006—2022年相关数据，开展数字经济对服务贸易出口结构的影响研究，采用熵值法测算数字经济指数，进行实证分析。结果表明，数字经济发展水平、外商直接投资、服务贸易开放度和教育水平均会推动浙江省服务贸易出口结构优化升级，丰富了数字经济背景下省级服务贸易发展理论，对于浙江省充分利用数字经济先行优势，促进服务贸易出口高质量发展具有重要意义。     

贸易便利化、中间品进口与企业出口增加值

本文将中国工业企业数据库和中国海关贸易数据库相匹配,采用双受限Tobit模型检验了贸易便利化如何通过中间品进口提升企业出口增加值。研究发现,贸易便利化对企业出口增加值存在显著的正向促进作用,其机制主要是通过中间品进口种类增加产生的技术溢出效应、中间品进口成本下降产生的成本节约效应、上游中间品进口产生的竞争效应等实现的。进一步研究发现,贸易便利化对企业出口增加值的影响存在异质性,表现为非国有企业、一般贸易企业和资本密集型企业受到的影响更大。本文认为,应该加强基础设施建设,营造良好的制度环境,积极推进贸易便利化,扩大进口中间品种类,降低进口中间品价格,抑制上游中间品企业垄断,从而提高企业出口增加值,实现开放型经济高质量发展。     

Declining global market share of Singapore's electronics exports: Is it a concern?

In contrast with the steadily rising shares of other regional exporters, Singapore's export shares in the global electronics market have been faltering in recent years. This has given rise to concerns about its export competitiveness. The drop in Singapore's global ranking can be attributed to shrinking exports of end products and low‐end electronics parts, as manufacturers relocate such assembly production out of Singapore to the regional economies. Fortunately, Singapore remains competitive in the export of high‐end intermediate electronics components, which are characterized by capability, technology, and automation‐intensive processes. While Singapore is progressing in the right direction, the climb up the high‐tech value chain needs to be further accelerated in order to maintain a technology gap with regional exporters. Besides accelerating its own industrial upgrading, Singapore needs to actively pursue measures that would help create a more integrated and competitive production platform for ASEAN, as well as to seek opportunities to service the rapidly enlarging consumer market in China. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

出口退税政策的节能减排效应研究

调整出口退税已成为遏制高能耗、高排放产品出口的重要措施,研究首先从理论上分析了出口退税的节能减排效应,提出下调出口退税率,将降低单位产值能耗成本的假设,接下来又通过我国钢铁行业出口能源强度与出口退税率的协整分析来实证验证,结果表明:出口额能耗与出口退税率间存在长期协整关系,且出口退税率是出口额能耗变化的格兰杰原因;出口退税率调整对出口额能耗影响的长期弹性为0.47,短期弹性为0.07,即出口退税率的变化对出口额能耗的影响在短期内不明显,但具有长期深远的影响;变结构协整分析还表明,差别退税政策下,当退税率下调时,出口退税率变化对出口额能耗的影响更大。     

The Asian Drivers and SSA: Is There a Future for Export‐oriented African Industrialisation?

(1253) Raphael Kaplinsky and Mike Morris Export‐oriented industrialisation is the orthodoxy and is widely indicated as a development path for sub‐Saharan Africa. In recent years there has been a surge of clothing exports from a limited number of SSA economies to the US. In 2006 these exports accounted for more than half of SSA’s manufactured exports (excluding South Africa). However, the ending of quota controls on Chinese clothing exports to the US led to a significant fall in these exports. Is this a harbinger for the future of export‐oriented industrialisation in SSA in a world of a level trading playing field?     

The Export Trading Company Act:

The Export Trading Company Act (ETCA) was signed into law in 1982 by then President Ronald Reagan. The goal of this legislation was to promote U.S. exports by allowing U.S. banks to hold an equity U.S. exports by allowing U.S. banks to hold an equity position in Export Trading Companies (ETCs) and by exempting the overseas activities of these organiziations from U.S. antitrust laws. The writers of this legislation hoped that the American ETCs would eventually grow to rival the Japanese General Export Trading Cmopanies known as sogo shosha's. This paper focuses on the history of the ETCA, its problems, and the current state of Export Trading Companies (ETCs) in the U.S. When the ETCA was established, the dollar was on an upward trend and was relatively high compared to other major currencies, such as the Deutsche mark, Japanese yen, and pound sterling. The legislation had a somewhat minor effect of exports, as few companies came together to form ETCs. With the fall of the dollar, an important question to ask is: Has the drop of the dollar contributed to a rise in interest in forming ETCs?     

Trade and Productivity in a Transition Economy: the Role of Industry and Export Destination

This paper focuses on the joint role of industry technology intensity and export market characteristics in the analysis of export-related productivity gains. Using a unique database of Ukrainian manufacturing firms in 2000-06, we classify all manufacturing sectors according to their technology intensity and estimate destination-specific learning by exporting effects separately for firms operating in high and low technology sectors. New exporters in high technology sectors enjoy robust long-term productivity growth premia when targeting advanced export markets, consistent with learning through exports. Export entrants in low technology sectors, instead, enjoy mostly short-term productivity improvements regardless of the export destination. Our findings suggest that the systematic distinction between the technology intensity of various industries is a relevant dimension for empirical studies on destination-specific learning by exporting.     

What Drives India's Surge in Service Exports?

India's prowess in the service sector has been recognised the world over. Sustaining services exports is important not only to sustain India's high growth rate but also to compensate for a consistent deficit in merchandise trade and to maintain stability on the external sector. In this context, we analyse the factors of India's performance in services exports over the past three decades. The results reveal that endowment factors such as human capital, improvement in physical infrastructure and financial development are key drivers for India's surge in services exports along with world demand, exchange rate and manufacturing exports. While factors such as institutions, R&D expenditure, telecommunication, foreign direct investment and financial development significantly impact the export of modern services, traditional services exports are more dependent on infrastructure development, manufacturing exports, world demand and exchange rate. India's economic reforms in the financial sector, FDI, communication so far have helped the services exports, but India needs to focus on supply‐side factors to improve the competitiveness – and thereby volume – of services exports.     

上海国际航运中心核心竞争力培育:高端服务业全球资源配置综论

本文通过综述学者对上海国际航运中心地位的分析,认为其对世界经济的影响力不足、国际标准制定能力有待提升、上海航运高端服务资源整合能力有待进一步发展;从而提出支持上海国际航运服务企业参与全球资源配置的活动;加快航运高端服务集群的发展等建议。     

出口复杂度的国外研究进展

国家出口复杂度反映了一国的出口商品结构,而产业和产品复杂度则在一定程度上反映了该出口产业或出口产品的技术水平以及国际分工地位。研究出口复杂度对于分析国际贸易、国际生产布局、出口结构以及发展中国家的出口竞争力都具有重要意义。近年来国外文献对出口复杂度,尤其是中国出口复杂度问题展开了大量的理论与实证分析。本文从多维视角,总结了国外文献对出口复杂度的定义、测度、异常性与内在作用机制的研究进展,并进行了总结评价。     

Does the US EXIM Bank really promote US exports?

This paper investigates the impact of US Export‐Import Bank (EXIM ) on US exports particularly in the wake of international competition from foreign national export credit agencies (ECA s). We employ a gravity framework on a country‐industry‐year‐level panel data set that matches EXIM authorisations with US bilateral exports. Our results depict the general ineffectiveness of the Bank in promoting exports within and across industries. Some heterogeneities behind the general finding are also uncovered: industries other than aerospace parts and products are more likely to benefit from EXIM authorisations, and EXIM authorisations to larger businesses seem to be more effective in encouraging exports. Furthermore, we find no evidence that EXIM encourages US exports by offsetting foreign ECA competition. These results are neither affected by competing countries’ membership to the OECD Arrangement nor by the size of American firms that received EXIM support. Our results cast doubt on the ubiquitously positive claims made by the Bank and its supporters, yet also provide policy lessons for countries that are either in the inception stages of establishing their own ECA s or are now placing greater importance on ECA financing in encouraging exports.