Rural financial markets in low-income countries: Recent controversies and lessons

Recently some researchers have criticized traditional agricultural credit policies in low-income countries. This article identifies the major points of controversy between traditional views and these new views and also summarizes the primary lessons learned from these controversies. Savings mobilization, more flexible interest rate policies, less loan targeting, and greater emphasis on improving the quality of financial services in rural areas are new views that are emphasized.     

Location choice in low-income countries: Evidence from Japanese investments in East Asia

Unlike most existing studies, this paper examines the location choices of multinational enterprises (MNEs) in low-income countries. Specifically, we investigate the location choices of Japanese MNEs among East Asian developing countries by estimating a four-stage nested logit model and a mixed logit model at the province level. Our findings are as follows. First, Japanese MNEs consider Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, and Vietnam to be host countries different from China and the forerunners of ASEAN. In other words, for Japanese investors, ASEAN forerunners are countries replaceable by China. Second, the mechanics of vertical FDI are more likely to appear in FDIs in low-income countries. For example, rather than the market size of the host country, tariff rates on products from investing countries are more crucial location elements.     

Interest rate subsidies on international finance as a means of assisting low-income countries

Many of the conventional ways of using the international financial system as a mechanism for making resource transfers to developing countries require quite fundamental restructuring of that system. Furthermore the relevance of the most notorious plan - the SDR-aid link – has been reduced by the increase in the rate of interest on SDR net use and by the insignificant proportion of reserve growth accounted for by SDRs. The use of interest rate subsidies on IMF finance, in conjunction with reforms to Fund conditionality, offers one practical way of providing an albeit small amount of financial assistance to low income countries. Analysis suggests that such subsidies represent an attractive form of aid and may enhance international financial efficiency.     

Patterns of historical CO2 intensity transitions among high and low-income countries

This article examines the long-term relationship between CO₂ emissions and economic development for various high-income OECD countries that, in turn, are compared with pattern for developing countries. A majority of high-income countries have experienced environmental Kuznets curve types of transitions with respect to CO₂ intensity (emissions per GDP), while the these patterns are absent in the poorer countries. Moreover, the overall historical pattern is one of convergence with respect to intensities. These observations are consistent with an explanation that takes into account includes time-specific, or vintage technology.     

利用储蓄 改革金融

中国经济增长将在下个十年甚至未来几十年内仍然存在。 那么，中国经济增长模型存在问题吗？至少有两个缺陷：第一，消费占GDP的比重逐年下降：第二，过剩的外贸盈余。消费下降不是一件好事，这意味着人们的福利提高缓慢，     

透视上海居民外汇储蓄

近年来,随着我国居民对外经济文化等方面交流的日益频繁,居民个人所持有外汇的数量增长迅速,使得得外汇储蓄存款余额大幅增加,这一点在上海表现得尤其明显。上海居民个人持有外汇数量的快速增长,从一个侧面可反映出上海市民国际化意识、投资意识的增强;另一方面,居民个人外汇管理虽然只是外汇管理中的一小部分,但当前居民个人外汇储蓄存款的快速增加仍反映出现行外汇管理政策的一些漏洞和局限之处。     

美国的存款保险制度及其对中国的启示

存款保险制度作为一国金融安全网的重要组成部分，已被越来越多国家采用，美国存款保险制度七十多年的运作历史，为我们提供了丰富的经验和教训。本通过分析美国存款保险制度的发展历程，尤其是90年代以来美国存款保险遇到的新问题，为我国建立合适的存款保险制度提出可行的建议。     

Savings: the policy debate in Europe

Three issues dominate the public policy debate over savingsin Continental Europe. First, can private savings substitutefor public pensions in the provision of retirement income, giventhat the current generosity of pay-as-you-go financed pensionsis hardly sustainable in the light of population ageing? Andif so, which policy steps have to be taken to alleviate thistransition? Second, does the evolution of a 'new financial landscape'in Europe necessitate policy response in terms of taxation andregulation, specifically considering the increase in pensionfunds? And third, closely related to the other two issues, isthere too much or too little saving in an ageing Europe? Willpension reform and the new financial landscape increase or decreaseoverall saving? Do we need to subsidize saving more or lessthan we currently do? The paper reviews economic theory andempirical evidence on these intertwined issues. Most importantly,it identifies many gaps in our theoretical and empirical knowledgethat caution us against overly strong policy recommendations.     

Import competition from and offshoring to low-income countries: Implications for employment and wages at U.S. domestic manufacturers

Using confidential linked firm-level trade transactions and census data between 1997 and 2012, we provide new evidence on how American firms without foreign affiliates adjust employment and wages as they adapt to import competition from low-income countries. We provide stylized facts on the input sourcing strategies of these domestic firms, contrasting them with multinationals operating in the same industry. We then investigate how changes in firm input purchases from low-income countries as well as domestic market import penetration from these sources are correlated with changes in employment and wages at surviving domestic firms. Greater offshoring by domestic firms from low-income countries correlates with larger declines in manufacturing employment and in the average production workers’ wage. Given the negative association, however, the estimated magnitudes are small, even for a narrow measure of offshoring that includes only intermediate goods. Import penetration of U.S. markets from these sources is associated with relatively larger changes in employment for arm’s length importing firms, but has no significant correlation with employment changes at firms that do not trade. Given differences in the degree of both offshoring and import penetration, we find substantial variation across industries in the magnitude of changes associated with low-income country imports.     

Did the underlying behaviour of inflation change in the 1980s? A study of 17 countries

Did the Underlying Behaviour of Inflation Change in the 1980s? A Study of 17 Countries. - Have the ERM member countries experienced a regime change to a lower degree of persistence for inflation in the 1980s compared to the 1970s? Some results give the impression that deflationary policies associated with ERM membership may have reduced the mean level of inflation, but did not reduce the persistence parameter over the last decade. However, other results show that the persistence parameter does decline for a majority of ERM members. Surprisingly, the results also show stronger evidence of a fall in inflation persistence for some non-ERM countries who adopted a strong anti-inflationary stance over the same period.     

上海市储蓄结构及变动情况调查

最近中国人民银行上海分行同工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、中国建设银行、交通银行、上海银行、浦东发展银行、招商银行等上海分行及农村信用合作社联社进行了联合调查。这次调查取得有效样本115个,其中城     

Savings,pension rights and taxation

Summary The voluntary saving rate has declined in The Netherlands over the last thirty years. In this paper the increasing share of transfer income in total income, with a high propensity to consume, and the increase in collective pension schemes are simultaneously used to explain this development. Furthermore, the influence of taxes is modelled. The planning horizon of the representative consumer is treated as a parameter to be estimated. The planning horizon obtained (about 4.5 years) appears to be short compared to expected residual lifetime, implying rather small interest elasticities. The estimation results indicate that, in case the obligatory pension schemes are diminished, the representative consumer offsets the loss in pension benefits for 75 per cent by voluntary, additional accumulation of nonhuman wealth in the long run. The working of the model is illustrated by simulation experiments.I wish to thank two anonymous referees, Prof. J. Pen, G.M.M. Gelauff, J.J. Graafland, W. Vossers and other colleagues of the CPB for their helpful comments.     

Financial Savings from the common fund

Zusammenfassung Finanzielle Ersparnisse eines gemeinsamen Fonds. — Die beiden wichtigsten “Vorschl?ge zur Finanzierung eines Systems internationaler Rohstoffabkommen gehen übereinstimmend von der Vorstellung aus, da\ ein zentraler Finanzierungsfonds, der ?gemeinsame Fonds?, Ressourcen sparen würde. In dieser Arbeit wird nun untersucht, wieviel Ressourcen ein einfaches Bufferstock-System erfordert, das Produktion und Konsum langfristig ausgleicht. Die Analyse zeigt, da\ ein System, das auf einem ?gemeinsamen Fonds? beruht, zwar zun?chst weniger Finanzmittel ben?tigen würde als ein System unverbundener Bufferstocks, da\ am Ende der Periode aber, wenn die finanzielle Abrechnung der unverbundenen Bufferstocks berücksichtigt wird, dieser Vorteil des ?gemeinsamen Fonds? verschwindet. Wenn Abweichungen zwischen sozialen und privaten Diskonts?tzen oder Unterschiede zwischen den Systemen hinsichtlich der durchschnittlichen Kapitalkosten zugelassen werden, dann k?nnte der ?gemeinsame Fonds? eine gewisse überlegenheit bewahren, die wahrscheinlich aber nur marginal ist. Die Begründung für einen gemeinsamen Fonds des hier untersuchten Typs mu\ deshalb auf nicht-finanziellem Gebiet gesucht werden.

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Résumé Les épargnes financières du fonds commun. — Nous commen?ons avec l’observation que les deux propositions principales concernant le financement d’un système des accords internationaux sur les matières premières ont en commun la notion qu’un fonds central de financement, le fonds ?commun?, pourrait ?épargner? des ressources. Cet article a examiné les implications sur les exigences de ressource d’un simple système des stocks régulateurs basé sur la balan?ante production et consommation autour de leurs tendances à long terme. L’analyse indique qu’un système basé sur un ?fonds commun? d’abord aurait exigé moins caisse versée qu’un système des stocks régulateurs pas combinés, mais si la balance de caisse des stocks régulateurs pas combinés à la fin de la période est tenue compte, cet avantage du fonds commun disparaít. Si les déviations entre les taux sociaux et privés d’escompte, ou les différences entre les systèmes regardant les frais moyens des capitaux, sont admises puis le fonds commun pourrait regagner quelque supériorité financière, mais cela est probablement de manière marginale. C’est pourquoi on doit argumenter en faveur d’un fonds commun de la sorte examinée dans cet article sur la base non-financière.

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Resumen Ahorros financieros del fondo común. — Comenzando con la observación que las dos proposiciones principales referentes al financiamiento de un sistema de acuerdos internacionales para productos tienen en común la noción que un fondo de financiamiento central, el ?fondo común?, ?ahorraría? recursos, este artículo ha examinado las implicaciones sobre el requerimiento de recursos de un simple sistema de ?buffer stocks? basado en el balanceo de la productión alrededor de sus trayectorias de largo plazo. El análisis indica, que mientras un sistema basado en el ?fondo común? habría requerido el empleo de menos dinero líquido que un sistema de ?buffer stocks? desligado, esta ventaja del fondo común desaparece cuando se toman en cuenta las balanzas de caja de los ?buffer stocks? desligados al final del período. Si se admiten desviaciones entre tasas de descuento privadas y sociales o diferencias entre sistemas en el costo promedio del capital, entonces el fondo común podría retener cierta superioridad financiera, pero esto probablemente tendrá solamente un valor marginal. La investigatión del caso de un fondo común del tipo examinado en este artículo consecuentemente tendrá que ser realizada sobre una base no financiera.

     

Mandatory Pensions and Personal Savings in The Netherlands*

The Netherlands has a relatively generous social security system and a wide coverage of individuals by private (occupational) pension schemes. Total household savings are rather high and fairly stable, although the amount of contractual savings apears to be going up at the expense of non-contractual (free) savings. Using an approach originally pioneered by Feldstein (1974) we employ microdata to investigate the displacement effect of security and pension wealth on free household savings. It turns out that the data available are too noisy to make precise statements about the displacement effects. Our results do suggest, however, that a one-for-one displacement of free savings by social security is consistent with the data. For pensions such a complete offset is less likely. This suggests that increase of coverage by private pensions is an effective way of raising savings.     

Implications for Savings of Aging in the Asian 'Tigers'

Significant aging is projected for many high-saving emerging economies of East and Southeast Asia. By 2025, the share of the elderly in their populations will at least double in most of these countries. The share of the young will fall. Aging populations could adversely affect savings rates in these economies, particularly after 2025. For the world, one may observe that initially, the Asian Tigers become increasingly important for world savings, reflecting their high saving and growth rates and the aging of the industrial countries. After 2025, the aging of the Tigers may reinforce the tendency toward a declining world savings rate.     

中国城镇居民预防性储蓄成因分析

中国的储蓄,特别是预防性储蓄引起了人们的广泛关注.由于经济变量间的互相影响,论文采用向量自回归模型(VAR),对中国城镇居民预防性储蓄风险因素进行研究,发现中国城镇居民对于预防性储蓄中不确定性的偏好逐渐发生改变,这包括从初期的失业风险,到后期对于社会福利不确定性风险的关注.同时,社会福利不确定性中医疗和住房影响因素较大,而教育作为一种投资,相对于前面两种纯粹的消费,其影响程度较小.而中国居民消费产生持续减少很有可能是由于渐进式改革对于人们预期产生持续的冲所引起的.因此,完善社会保障制度,减小人们的不确定性预期,同时,有针对地加大对于医疗和住房的改革力度,尤其是医疗,这也符合我国当前正在推行的改革措施,同时改革措施尽量不要产生很长的政策时效期,或者持续不断地推出改革政策会导致居民的预期产生持续性的冲击.