Forecasting ATM cash demands using a local learning model of cerebellar associative memory network

Forecasting cash demands at automatic teller machines (ATMs) is challenging, due to the heteroskedastic nature of such time series. Conventional global learning computational intelligence (CI) models, with their generalized learning behaviors, may not capture the complex dynamics and time-varying characteristics of such real-life time series data efficiently. In this paper, we propose to use a novel local learning model of the pseudo self-evolving cerebellar model articulation controller (PSECMAC) associative memory network to produce accurate forecasts of ATM cash demands. As a computational model of the human cerebellum, our model can incorporate local learning to effectively model the complex dynamics of heteroskedastic time series. We evaluated the forecasting performance of our PSECMAC model against the performances of current established CI and regression models using the NN5 competition dataset of 111 empirical daily ATM cash withdrawal series. The evaluation results show that the forecasting capability of our PSECMAC model exceeds that of the benchmark local and global-learning based models.     

Learning competitive pricing strategies by multi-agent reinforcement learning

In electronic marketplaces automated and dynamic pricing is becoming increasingly popular. Agents that perform this task can improve themselves by learning from past observations, possibly using reinforcement learning techniques. Co-learning of several adaptive agents against each other may lead to unforeseen results and increasingly dynamic behavior of the market. In this article we shed some light on price developments arising from a simple price adaptation strategy. Furthermore, we examine several adaptive pricing strategies and their learning behavior in a co-learning scenario with different levels of competition. Q-learning manages to learn best-reply strategies well, but is expensive to train.     

Efficient inequality: differential allocation in the local public sector

This paper examines the consequences for social efficiency if the locally provided public input can be differentially allocated among residents. We derive the distributional efficiency condition, which is the distribution of public inputs that maximizes within-city gains from trade. Differential allocation also causes modifications to the standard (Samuelsonian) allocative efficiency condition. Additionally, we explore the consequences of differential allocation for the median voter model. Standard empirical voter models are seriously flawed because they fail to distinguish final public output production from either individual demand or the distribution of publicly provided inputs. Finally, we derive the club sharing efficiency condition.     

Self-organized criticality in evolutionary systems with local interaction

This paper studies a stylized model of local interaction where agents choose from an ever increasing set of vertically ranked actions, e.g. technologies. The driving forces of the model are infrequent upward shifts (‘updates’), followed by a rapid process of local imitation (‘diffusion’). Our main focus is on the regularities displayed by the long-run distribution of diffusion waves and their implication on the performance of the system. By integrating analytical techniques and numerical simulations, we come to the following two main conclusions. (1) If non-coordination costs are sufficiently high, the system behaves critically, in the sense customarily used in physics. (2) The performance of the system is optimal at the frontier of the critical region. Heuristically, this may be interpreted as an indication that (performance-sensitive) evolutionary forces induce the system to be placed ‘at the edge of order and chaos’.     

Women and risk-taking behaviour in local public finance

This study examines how female representation in local elected (mayor and legislature) and administrative (mid-level manager) positions influences municipal financial decision-making in 764 Japanese city-level governments. Findings show that female representation in local councils is positively correlated with risk-averse behaviour in financial decisions, as female representation on the legislature is negatively associated with issuing municipal bonds and with local investment in public corporations. Female representation in executive (mayor and vice-mayor) and mid-level administrative managerial positions has no apparent effects on local financial decisions. This study tests existing explanations of relationships between female managerial representation and fiscal behaviour in an Asian developed setting characterized by considerable underrepresentation of women in politics.     

A local maximum likelihood estimator for Poisson regression

A local maximum likelihood estimator based on Poisson regression is presented as well as its bias, variance and asymptotic distribution. This semiparametric estimator is intended to be an alternative to the Poisson, negative binomial and zero-inflated Poisson regression models that does not depend on regularity conditions and model specification accuracy. Some simulation results are presented. The use of the local maximum likelihood procedure is illustrated on one example from the literature. This procedure is found to perform well. This research was partially supported by Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation and PRODEP III.     

企业微型学习的设计研究

随着计算机网络技术和移动通信技术的飞速发展,越来越多的企业机构期望更高效地组织员工学习新的技能和专业知识,以此提升企业的竞争力。而此时移动学习和娱乐学习的理念出现并广为流行,企业的学习者也越来越关注学习方式和知识管理的便捷性和实时性,企业微型学习的发展正是顺应了这一理念的需求,它是继数字化学习之后出现的一个新型的学习模式。     

The ideal source of local public revenue

Free or underpriced curb parking creates a classic commons problem. Studies have found that between 8% and 74% of cars in congested traffic were cruising in search of curb parking, and that the average time to find a curb space ranged between 3 and 14 min. Cities can eliminate the economic incentive to cruise by charging market-clearing prices for curb parking spaces. Market-priced curb parking can yield between 5% and 8% of the total land rent in a city, and in some neighborhoods can yield more revenue than the property tax.     

Spatial local M-estimation under association

We investigate the asymptotic behavior of a robust version of local linear regression estimators with variable bandwidth for spatial associated processes. The weak consistency of the proposed estimators is given under appropriate conditions. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic normality of the estimators, from which expressions for the asymptotic bias and variance can be derived.     

日本城市管理中的地方自治及对中国的启示--以东京为例

以东京为例,首先简要回溯东京都市制度的演变历程,随后进一步探讨日本城市管理体制的核心内容:中央政府与地方城市的关系及权限分配,指明当代日本城市政府在中央集权下“有限自治”、“多种自治模式混和”的特征,并在详细分析了东京城市自治体制的设置与职能基础上,讨论对我国城市管理的若干启示。     

Towards an architecture of organization-led learning

This paper takes, as its starting point, the fact that one of Europe's stated strategic goals over the next 10 years is to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based society in the world. Here, lifelong learning is viewed as a critical element of achieving this strategy, central not only to competitiveness and employability, but also to social inclusion, active citizenship and personal development. Learning is thus fast becoming the conventional wisdom of organizational life, and yet, perplexingly, the relationship between work and learning remains a complex one. Located at the cusp of organizational learning, the learning organization and knowledge management fields, this paper reviews the theoretical underpinnings of organizational learning, arguing that, despite its inadequate conceptual coherence, it has been raised almost to the status of orthodoxy. In an attempt to address some of the inadequacies, the paper advances the idea of an architecture of organization-led learning that captures the consciously constructed systems and practices that could be put in place to facilitate learning at work.     

Service learning and integrated,collaborative project management

This article describes the development of an undergraduate course on project management that incorporates experiential learning and service learning as the primary course learning methodology to instill in students the Project Management Institute's nine Knowledge Areas. The discussed instructional method is a dynamic and participative pedagogy. The project management course content is traditionally structured around system needs and analysis identification, functional requirements analysis, project timelines, network analysis, and project progress metrics. Introduction of service‐learning projects and experiential learning pedagogies provides a pragmatic approach for applying project management concepts. This article compares and contrasts the first three offerings of this course and provides lessons learned that may be helpful to others wishing to embrace project management realism in their course work. The purpose of this article is to encourage a hands‐on method for learning the nine Knowledge Areas in the undergraduate classroom.     

Using survey data to study capitalization of local public services

We use surveys in which respondents evaluate local amenities in Norway to compute proxy variables for the quality of local public services as well as other local amenities relevant to location decisions. Average satisfaction reported by the respondents is computed for each amenity and each municipality, adjusted for sample variation in personal characteristics and included as explanatory variables in a cross-section study of house prices. We find that house prices are increasing in satisfaction with cultural activities, health care, care for the elderly and public transportation.     

虚拟团队的学习研究

近年来虚拟团队作为一种新的组织形式受到越来越广泛的关注。文章对虚拟团队的学习问题进行了分析说明,指出了虚拟团队学习的过程和特点,以及面临的问题和挑战,并提出了提高虚拟团队学习效率的主要途径。     

The effect of spillovers on the provision of local public goods

This paper analyzes the provision of local public goods with positive spillovers across jurisdictions. If spillovers are symmetric, the non-cooperative game played by jurisdictions admits a unique equilibrium, and an increase in spillovers reduces the total provision of public goods. Smaller jurisdictions always reduce their contribution, but larger jurisdictions can increase their contribution. When spillovers are asymmetric, equilibrium is unique if spillovers are low, while multiple equilibria exist for high spillover values. In the case of two jurisdictions, an increase in the flow of spillovers to one jurisdiction benefits agents from that jurisdiction but harms agents in the other jurisdiction. Beyond the case of two jurisdictions, the effect of changes in spillovers cannot be signed. An increase in the spillovers flowing to a jurisdiction can actually result in an increase in the supply of public goods by that jurisdiction and harm agents residing in it, while benefiting agents in the other jurisdictions. The results of the paper reveal the complexity of interactions that will plague the design of institutions for multijurisdictional local public good economies with spillovers.      

Probability matching and reinforcement learning

Probability matching occurs when an action is chosen with a frequency equivalent to the probability of that action being the best choice. This sub-optimal behavior has been reported repeatedly by psychologists and experimental economists. We provide an evolutionary foundation for this phenomenon by showing that learning by reinforcement can lead to probability matching and, if the learning occurs sufficiently slowly, probability matching does not only occur in choice frequencies but also in choice probabilities. Our results are completed by proving that there exists no quasi-linear reinforcement learning specification such that the behavior is optimal for all environments where counterfactuals are observed.     

Identifying strategic interactions in Swedish local income tax policies

This paper uses data on Swedish local governments to test for strategic interaction in local tax setting. We make use of a number of indirect predictions from the theories of tax competition and yardstick competition in order to test for the presence of strategic interaction in these forms. Using such additional predictions of the theories serves a twofold purpose—first it helps us establish if the spatial coefficient is due to strategic interactions or merely reflecting spatial error correlation, and second, it helps identify the source of interaction. The analysis provides strong evidence for spatial correlation in tax rates among Swedish local governments. Moreover, we find weak evidence of tax competition effects in the setting of tax rates.     

Demographic shift, relative costs and the allocation of local public consumption in Norway

Local government responses to shifting demand and supply conditions are investigated. The desired allocation of local public consumption is determined in a voter group decision model where different age groups compete for services within an exogenous budget constraint. The model is implemented in an AIDS demand system built into a partial adjustment framework. The estimates indicate that the dramatic shift in the age composition of the population from the young to the elderly during the period studied has led to higher educational spending per pupil and less health care services per elderly. Age groups in decline are able to resist reallocations and gain in terms of spending per head.     

Policy instruments for sustainability‐oriented organizational learning

The concept of sustainable development implies the need for organizational learning in business corporations to find innovative solutions. In this context, the paper analyzes the requirements and options for environmental policy to induce sustainability‐related learning processes in corporations. It discusses the impacts of different policy instruments on these processes. Initially, the particular challenges of organizational learning for sustainability are being sketched out. Drawing on organizational learning studies, a subsequent section of the paper addresses fundamental elements and drivers for organizational learning processes on different levels in business corporations. The particular nodes where public policy can influence corporate learning processes are the central focus of these considerations. On this basis, we examine existing policy instruments frequently used in environmental policy with regard to their potential to foster learning processes towards sustainability. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.