Market efficiency during the global financial crisis: Empirical evidence from European banks

This paper empirically investigates the asymmetric effect of news on the time-varying beta of selected banks from seven European countries during the current crisis period and also during the pre-crisis period. The paper applies daily data from thirteen large banks from France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain. The sample size ranges from 2002 to 2013 and includes the current global financial crisis (2007–2013). The BEKK GARCH model is first employed to estimate the time-varying beta and then linear regression is applied to investigate the asymmetric effect of news on the beta. The asymmetric effects are investigated based on both market and non-market shocks. Results show that some evidence of market efficiency can be witnessed via non-market shocks, however the market shocks indicate that the European banks foster a significant amount of uncertainty leading to asset mispricing. Results also show a clear rift in terms of quality of results between France and Germany taken as a group and the rest of the countries under study. These results shed light on the level of market efficiency and hedging strategies.     

Valuation of diversified banks: New evidence

This paper reconsiders the effect of diversification on bank valuation. Our objective is to provide new evidence based on a unified estimation framework that places particular emphasis on separating the effects of diversification (specialised banks vs. diversified banks) from those of bank type (investment banks vs. commercial banks). Consistent with prior studies, we find a significant diversification discount at the end of the 1990s. Our main finding is that it decreases over time and practically vanishes after the financial crisis. We do not find support for the hypothesis that the diversification effect is influenced by geographical or regulatory factors. The valuation impact of bank characteristics varies over time, particularly in the financial crisis, but this structural break does not explain the observed decrease of the diversification discount. We show that the pre-crisis discount is considerably smaller in a robust regression, which in part is driven by banks with a large share of non-interest income.     

Value relevance of earnings,book value and dividends in an emerging capital market: Kuwait evidence

This study examines the value relevance of book value, earnings and dividends for a sample of all non-financial firms listed on the Kuwait Stock Exchange (KSE) over the period 2003–2009. After controlling for the impact of the global financial crisis, empirical results provide evidence on the value relevance of book value and earnings in the KSE. The results indicate that dividends are not a value-relevant in the presence of earnings in the valuation model. However, when dividends are used as a substitute for earnings they become value-relevant. The explanatory power of the model including both book value and earnings is almost indistinguishable from that of book value and dividends. Furthermore, splitting earnings into dividends declared (or paid) and earnings retained results in each of the two variables becoming value-relevant. The average dividend pay-out ratio tends to increase over time, indicating that dividend policies do matter in the KSE and that dividends in Kuwait are used to boost investors' confidence and support share price, noticeably during the global financial crisis period.     

The risk relevance of International Financial Reporting Standards: Evidence from Greek banks

The main purpose of the paper is to estimate market, interest rate and exchange rate risk of Greek financial institutions and to explore the relationship between market-based measures of risk and accounting variables before and after the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) in order to examine whether IFRS introduction enhances the information content of accounting data. Empirical results reveal that all banks are exposed to market risk while interest rate and exchange rate risk affect them occasionally. Moreover, the IFRS introduction reinforces the explanatory ability of accounting data, on systematic and non-systematic risks. Concerning the risk-relevance of accounting ratios, liquidity measures, credibility, earnings per share and provisions for credit loss are inversely related to systematic and non-systematic risks under IFRS. Moreover, loans to total assets ratio, interest rate spread and income diversification are directly associated with market measures of risk, while bank size is negatively related to both risk measures under IFRS. Our findings imply that the fair value orientation of IFRS is responsible for the higher risk-relevance of fundamentals as opposed to the historically oriented Greek Accounting Standards (GAS).     

Depositor market discipline: New evidence from selling failed banks

This paper studies depositor behavior following the acquisition of failed banks by healthy banks in FDIC-supervised transactions. Using a US bank branch-based dataset spanning 2007 to 2014 we find that failed bank depositors discipline acquiring banks post-resolution. This appears to be related to features of the acquiring banks' asset quality and loan composition, but it may also be linked to irrational desciplinary behavior or post acquisition integration issues. We also find some evidence that depositor market discipline may have an impact on the competitive fetaures of local banking markets post resolution.     

Value relevance of value-at-risk disclosure

The SEC issued FRR No. 48 in 1997 to enhance public disclosure of firms’ exposures to market risk. We examine whether the quantitative value-at-risk (VAR) estimates disclosed by 81 non-financial firms during the period 1997–2002 are value-relevant using the earnings-returns relation. The empirical results indicate that high VAR is associated with weaker earnings-returns relation. Further analysis shows that VAR is positively and significantly associated with future stock return volatility. Our evidence suggests that investors perceive the earnings of firms with substantial market risk exposure to be less persistent, and adjust the future abnormal earnings for the higher risk exposure. Thus, this results in a lower expected rate of return.

银行在全球并购中的角色

近年来,全球各国诸多产业都出现了明显的并购热潮。本文概述了1995年至2007年1月间完成的全球并购活动,通过比较银行作为并购方、被并购方及并购双方的信息,评估了银行在其间的重要作用。     

The future and dynamics of global systemically important banks

The purpose of this paper is to analyse some of the issues associated with supervision and regulation of global systemically important banks, G-SIB. The paper highlights the importance of managing liquidity risk and creating a global financial system that can minimise regulatory arbitrage by large financial institutions. The paper argues that, unlike some industries such as the airline industry in which risk has been contained and yet the size and capacity of aircrafts have increased, in the banking system, less progress has been made to contain financial risk and allow large banks to expand their global activities. The paper argues that G-SIB are able to continue remaining large provided that a globally integrated financial system ensures effective global supervision of these large banks. The paper compares the US banking crises in the 19th century and the subsequent emergence of the US Federal Reserve System to the possibility of establishing a world central bank and a global supervisory board. Such new global institutions will have the capacity to reduce regulatory arbitrage, increase effective supervision, reduce systemic and liquidity risk and create a more stable global financial system.     

Stress testing German banks against a global credit crunch

This paper investigates the impact of a global credit crunch on the corporate credit portfolios of large German banks using a two-stage approach. First, a macroeconometric simulation model (NiGEM) is used to forecast the impact of a substantial increase in the cost of business capital for firms worldwide in three particularly export-oriented industry sectors in Germany. Second, the impact of this economic multi-sector stress on bank credit portfolios is captured by a state-of-the-art Credit Metrics-type portfolio model with sector-dependent unobservable risk factors as drivers of the systematic risk. In our assessment of capital ratios, we confirm that both the increase of the capital charge for the unexpected loss and the increase in banks’ expected losses need to be considered. We also find that the availability of granular information at the level of borrower-specific probabilities of default has a significant impact on the stress test results.     

Value relevance of customer-related intangible assets

This study examines the stock market's valuation of customer-related intangible assets for a sample of publicly-traded U.S. firms. Customer-related intangible assets are found to be positively associated with equity prices, but valued at a discount relative to goodwill. These results suggest that value-relevant information is lost if customer-related intangible assets are subsumed into goodwill rather than being reported separately. This evidence can be useful to standard setters potentially considering extending to public companies a recent FASB Accounting Standards Update allowing private companies not to recognize separately from goodwill certain customer-related intangible assets.     

Value versus growth: Australian evidence

The value‐growth effect is one of the most pervasive patterns in stock prices. In this study, the ability of four proxies for value‐growth, book‐to‐market, sales‐to‐price, earnings‐to‐price and cash‐flow‐to‐price to explain equity returns is analysed. The findings show that in aggregate, book‐to‐market best explains cross‐sectional variation in Australian equity returns, which in isolation suggests that it is the superior proxy for value‐growth. The analysis is taken further and the value‐growth effect is examined separately in positive and negative earnings firms. After segregating firms, it is found that in the negative earnings sample, book‐to‐market is the best value‐growth proxy and in the positive earnings sample, cash‐flow‐to‐price has the highest level of significance and is thus the superior value‐growth proxy. The economic significance of this result is telling, as the firms that report positive earnings are much larger than those that report negative earnings.     

Increasing profitability through contingent convertible capital: Empirical evidence from European banks

This study investigates the effects of using additional tier 1 (AT1) capital instruments on bank profitability. It is motivated by the fact that the use of contingent convertible bonds (CoCo bonds) instead of equity offers a tax shield and incentives for efficient risk taking. I empirically analyze a panel dataset of 231 banks from EEA countries as well as Switzerland from 2014 to 2018. My analysis shows that the potential tax shield partly determines the use of CoCo bonds, and that the use of CoCo bonds instead of equity as AT1 capital significantly increases bank profitability.     

从制度创新看国有商业银行的价值管理

商业银行是经营货币的特殊企业,持续稳健发展对其来说是至关重要的。本文通过对商业银行的价值管理模式和传统管理模式的对比分析,将价值管理引入到我国国有商业银行的管理中去,阐述了我国国有商业银行如何从制度创新的角度推动价值管理,实现银行的可持续发展。     

Value relevance of disclosed related party transactions

Several recent North American corporate scandals have brought attention to the potential for accounting manipulations associated with related party transactions (RPTs), which have lead to a decline in perceived earnings quality. We examine the value relevance of disclosed RPTs in Chinese corporations. We focus on two types of RPTs: sales of goods and sales of assets. From 1997 to 2000, we find that the reported earnings of firms selling goods or assets to related parties exhibit a lower valuation coefficient than those of firms in China without such transactions. This result is not observed during 2001-2003 after a new fair value measurement rule for RPTs came into effect. Our evidence suggests that the new RPT regulation in China is perceived to be effective at reducing the potential misuse of RPTs for earnings management purposes. Since RPTs have been the subject of numerous scandals in North America, our evidence from the Chinese stock markets suggests that new RPT accounting standards could prove an efficient solution to this issue.     

Earnings baths by CEOs during turnovers: empirical evidence from German savings banks

Existing research documents that incoming CEOs in non-financial firms tend to take an “earnings bath”. They reduce their first year’s profits through discretionary expenses, blame the “bad outcome” on their predecessors, lower the performance benchmark, and save income for subsequent accounting periods. Identifying such an earnings bath for incoming CEOs in banks requires us to disentangle under-provisioning, which may have triggered the turnover event, and the earnings bath. For a sample of German savings banks over the period 1993–2012, we find that incoming CEOs increase discretionary expenses and that this increase is stronger for incoming CEOs from outside the bank than for insiders. We further show that CEOs coming from outside increase discretionary expenses during their first year in charge even if the default risk of the bank is low and the stock of risk provisions relative to risk exposure is high. Therefore, we conclude that the effects are only partially driven by incoming CEOs who rectify discretionary expenses by insufficient existing risk provisions, and that big bath accounting plays an important role in explaining discretionary expenses during CEO turnovers.     

Why do central banks intervene secretly?: Preliminary evidence from the BoJ

This paper empirically investigates the main determinants of secret interventions in the foreign exchange (FX) market. Using the recent experience of the Bank of Japan, we estimate a model that explains the share of secret to reported interventions in the FX market. Two sets of determinants are clearly identified: the first is related to the probability of detection of the central bank orders by market participants; the second to the central bank's internal decision to opt for secrecy. Our estimations support the arguments of current microstructure theories that rationalize the use of secret interventions.     

Value relevance of accounting information: Evidence from an emerging market

Without making any distinction of the applicable accounting standards, this paper investigates, firstly, the value relevance of accounting information from 1999 to 2012 in different segments of the Chinese stock market. This investigation includes A-shares, prepared under Chinese Accounting Standards (CAS) for domestic firms; B-shares, prepared under either the International Accounting Standards (IAS) or International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) for both domestic and overseas firms; and H-shares prepared under either the IAS or Hong Kong GAAP for Hong Kong and overseas firms. Then, the paper examines whether or not the converged IFRS with CAS, applicable from 2007 onwards, is more value relevant when compared with prior to the 2007's standards (CAS, IAS, Hong Kong GAAP for A-share, B-share, and H-share markets, respectively). Based on 34,020 firm-year observations and after controlling for industry- and year-fixed effects, the findings suggest that accounting information is value relevant with A- and B-share markets, while it is partially relevant with the H-share market. The paper finds that the converged IFRS with CAS is more value relevant in A-shares and B-shares and it is partially more value relevant with the H-share market. These findings have implications for both policymakers and investors since they provide further empirical evidence for the current policy procedure which harmonizes local GAAP with IFRS.     

Comparative performance of UK mutual building societies and stock retail banks: further evidence

The purpose of this paper is to extend the literature on the comparative performance of mutual and stock retail banks by examining a unique episode in the history of financial services; namely, when four of the largest UK building societies (accounting for approximately 60 per cent of the industry's assets) demutualized to public limited company status in 1997. The episode allows us to consider the relative performance of the same businesses under different organizational forms. The results contrast starkly with previous findings and cast doubt on the hypothesis that mutuals generally outperform stock retail banks and indeed the idea that mutuals can be regarded as a homogeneous group of institutions.     

Venture capital certification of small and medium-sized enterprises towards banks: evidence from China

Through a proprietary dataset of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) on China's National Equities Exchange and Quotations (NEEQ), we examine the impact of venture capital (VC) backup on access to bank loans by SMEs. We find that VC backup can help SMEs obtain more bank loans under better conditions and significantly relieve their financing constraint. This is especially meaningful for private SMEs, those in high-tech, in regions of less-developed banking industry, or with lower quality accounting information. This study may have policy implications as a pilot ‘combined debt-equity financing’ discussion in the context of the largest bank-based economy.