当前我国企业财务预警的相关问题初探——基于现金流量的视角

现金流量可以反映企业的财务风险,加强现金流量管理有助于预防和控制企业的财务风险。本文旨在基于现金流量的视角,提出企业财务危机预警的指标体系(偿债能力指标设计、收益质量指标设计、财务弹性指标设计、现金流量结构指标设计以及创新发展能力指标设计),以便为企业由于财务信息失真导致的财务预警失效问题提供解决对策:加强企业形成以价值创造为导向的现金流量管理思想,努力实现企业对现金流量财务预警的动态管理。     

重视现金流量分析

现金流量表分析在整个财务报表体系分析中重要性 随着我国新财务及会计制度的推行,目前现金流量表已正式进入了企业财务报表体系.从投资人、债权人及各种会计信息使用者的角度看,要有效地运用现金流量信息,做出正确的管理决策,就必须学会对现金流量表及其提供的现金流量进行科学的分析和评价.其重要性表现在:现金流量信息能够表明企业经营状况是否良好,资金是否紧缺,企业偿债能力大小.通过现金流量分析,可以反映企业的盈利质量、变现能力、偿债能力和财务弹性,其可靠性和相关性明显优于其他财务指标,已日益成为最重要的会计信息而备受信息使用者的关注.     

企业现金流量：评估银行贷款质量的重要指标

中国人民银行日前颁布的《贷款风险分类指导原则（试行）》中指出：贷款质量分类以评估借款人的还款能力为核心；分析借款人的还款能力，需要分析借款人现金流量、财务状况、影响还款能力的非财务因素。最近，财政部又发布了《企业会计准则——现金流量表》具体准则，使现金流量表成为企业对外报送的重要报表之一。这样就使现金流量逐步取代利润指标成为银行评估贷款质量的重要指标之一，可以较客观地衡量贷款所处状态，反映银行贷款资产质量。     

企业现金流量评估银行贷款质量的重要指标

中国人民银行颁布的《货款风险分类指导原则（试行）》中提出：评估银行贷款质量，采用以风险为基础的五类方法，即把贷款分为正常、关注、次级、可疑和损失五类；贷款质量分类以评估借款人的还款能力为核心；分析借款人的还款能力，需要分析借款人现金流量、财务状况、影响还款能力的非财务因素。最近，财政部又发布了《企业会计准则──现金流量表》具体准则，使现金流量表成为企业对外报送的重要报表之一。这样就使现金流量逐步取代利润指标成为银行评估贷款质量的重要指标，并依此衡量货款所处状态，从而在一定程度上能较客观地反映银行…     

论企业财务管理中对现金流量表的有效应用

财务管理是指对企业资产结构的管理,具体包括资产投资、资本融通和经营中现金流量的管理。而现金流量是反映企业在一定期间内所经营的动态活动情况,所反映的信息对企业的财务处理有着重要的作用。本文详细介绍了现金流量表在企业管理中的具体作用,然后分析了现金流量表在我国企业管理中存在的问题,最后提出了优化现金流量表的具体策略。     

论企业财务管理中对现金流量表的有效应用

财务管理是指对企业资产结构的管理,具体包括资产投资、资本融通和经营中现金流量的管理.而现金流量是反映企业在一定期间内所经营的动态活动情况,所反映的信息对企业的财务处理有着重要的作用.本文详细介绍了现金流量表在企业管理中的具体作用,然后分析了现金流量表在我国企业管理中存在的问题,最后提出了优化现金流量表的具体策略.     

现金流量表所反映的财务指标及其分析

现金流量表主要反映了经济实体一定时期的经营状况,通过分析现金流量表能够帮助回答许多问题。本文通过对现金流量表的初始现金流量、营业现金流量和终点现金流量的分析的方法,解释了资产、负债和所有者权益账户在报告期期初和期末之间的变化,为企业决策者对整个企业的运营情况和可能面临的问题有一个清楚的认识和预测,并为进行科学的财务预测与决策提供可靠的依据。     

论现金流量表财务分析体系

在市场经济条件下，现金流量在很大程度上决定着企业的生存和发展能力。正确理解、分析和运用现金流量表，可以捕捉企业获取现金能力的信息，有助于强化企业财务与经营管理。企业理财人员在分析现金流量的过程中，必须深刻认识到现金流量形成的规律和内在结构，掌握现金流量表的分析方法和技巧，遵循分析原则，精心设计财务分析指标，力求分析的具体、深入。透过现象看本质，才能充分发挥其对公司理财的重要作用。     

加强企业现金管理的建议

一、强化对现金流的监督和控制 实行全面预算管理,细化现金流预算：严格按照预算控制资金支出,严把现金流量的出入关口;强化对企业现金流的考核,将现金流指标作为反映企业经营成果的重要指标,纳入企业经营业绩考核指标体系。     

现金流量表综合分析预警机制的构建与应用探究

企业现金流是企业运作的核心资源,是反映企业偿债能力、盈利能力的重要指标,是企业经营者、债权人、投资者最关心的核心指标。如何充分挖掘和利用企业现金流量中隐含的企业营运信息,监测和分析企业经营发展现状是各利益相关者的重要关注内容。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

金融企业员工考核系统的设计

一、概述 为配合公司人事考核制度的贯彻执行,保证该制度执行过程中各项工作能够长期、高效、准确地完成,我们开发了公司员工考核系统,实现了人事考核工作中员工投票、考核统计、考核信息分析、报表生成等功能,减少了人事部门人员的手工操作,提高了考核工作的自动化程度.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

我国助学贷款改革刍议--"双担保"机制设计

国家新出台的助学贷款政策,还不过是既有的框架下的局部调整,存在诸多不完善的地方。为此,对国家助学贷款应构建高校与就业单位的“双担保”机制。从长期来看,要构建一个系统有效的“政府部门管理和商业银行运作相结合”、“多层次、多渠道、多方式”、“担保和非担保、贴息和非贴息、市场和非市场运作互相补充”的中国教育金融框架。