Financial liberalization,private investment and portfolio choice: Financialization of real sectors in emerging markets

Using firm level panel data, we analyze the impacts of rates of return gap between financial and fixed investments under uncertainty on real investment performance in three emerging markets, Argentina, Mexico and Turkey. Employing a portfolio choice model to explain the low fixed investment rates in developing countries during the 1990s, we suggest that rather than investing in irreversible long-term fixed investments, firms may choose to invest in reversible short-term financial investments depending on respective rates of returns and the overall uncertainty in the economy. The empirical results show that increasing rates of return gap and uncertainty have an economically and statistically significant fixed investment reducing effect while the opposite is true with respect to financial investments.     

Herding by foreign investors and emerging market equity returns: Evidence from Korea

This paper studies the effect of herding by foreign investors on stock returns in the Korean market. We conduct both pre and post-liberalization analyses and utilize a three-stage least squares analysis in order to control for the simultaneous relationship. We find evidence of a significant impact of foreign investor herding on stock returns in addition to intra-year positive feedback trading by foreign investors. However, changes in domestic institutional ownership do not have any significant effect on stock returns. In addition, foreign investors tend to buy/sell shares that domestic institutions sell/buy in the herding year.     

国有机构投资者持股能提升企业投资效率吗?

具有国资背景的机构投资者,对于资本市场平稳发展具有重要意义。本文基于我国2015—2019年A股上市公司样本,考察持股对企业投资效率的影响。研究发现,持股显著提升了企业投资效率,并且该影响在代理冲突更严重和所处信息环境更不透明的公司中更加显著。机制检验表明,降低企业内外部信息不对称和代理成本是持股提升企业投资效率的重要渠道。进一步研究发现,国有机构投资者持股时间越长,对企业非效率投资的治理效果越好;细分国有机构投资者类型后发现,致力于长期维护资本市场稳定和上市公司长期健康发展的证金公司和汇金公司对企业投资效率的提升作用显著,但没有发现“救市”基金和外管局旗下的投资平台对企业投资效率有提升作用。研究结论从企业投资效率视角为国有机构投资者持股在微观企业日常经营中发挥的治理作用提供了新颖的经验证据,对进一步提高我国上市公司质量具有启示意义。     

中国股票市场"聪明投资者"行为研究

"聪明投资者"是根据投资绩效来界定投资者的一种新方法,在最新投资实践中有应用,但学术研究却十分缺乏.其意义在于,不同于"选股",这是一种"选人"的新投资思路,即找出"聪明投资者",并跟随其投资,便可以获取超额收益.文章首次提出了"聪明投资者"概念,并剖析了策略获得盈利的原因.研究发现,按历史投资绩效可以界定出"聪明投资者";"聪明投资者"既不同于理性投资者也不同于机构投资者,说明未来研究应重视这一分类;"聪明的个人"比"聪明的机构"绩效更好,偏好差异是造成这种差异的原因,"个人聪明投资者"的目标公司主要以资本运作方式来提高收益(因而超额收益更高),而"机构聪明投资者"的目标公司除了资本运作外更多地依靠自身经营来提高绩效.文章拓展了投资者行为研究的思路,揭示了"另类投资者"研究的重要性,且与国际上"聪明钱效应"的研究相衔接,未来资本市场与实体经济的相互影响也可从"聪明投资者"角度进行研究.文章的研究结果还可用于制订有效的投资策略.     

投资者情绪、股票错误估值与上市公司投资简

以剩余收益估值模型衡量股票错误估值程度,基于公司层面测度投资者情绪,利用非平衡面板数据模型检验投资投资者情绪如何通过证券市场传导到上市公司从而影响其实际投资行为。实证研究发现,投资者情绪主要通过直接的迎合渠道而非间接的股权融资渠道影响上市公司投资行为,且公司投资在迎合渠道上表现出对投资者情绪的“反迎合机制”,此外不同特征的公司其投资对投资者情绪的敏感度存在横截面差异。     

Holding on to the Losers: Finnish Evidence

Recent literature reports evidence on investor behavior that is inconsistent with traditional finance theory. One currently being debated is behavioral irrationality, the tendency of investors to hold losing investments too long and sell winning investments too soon, a phenomenon known as the disposition effect. We analyze the trading records of all individual investors in the Finnish stock market and document that capital losses reduce the selling propensity of investors. There is, however, no opposite effect identifiable with respect to capital gains. We also find, somewhat surprisingly, that both positive and negative historical returns significantly reinforce the negative association between the selling propensity of investors and capital losses. While these findings offer no direct support for the disposition effect, they do suggest that investors are loss averse.     

A nonlinear Granger causality test between stock returns and investor sentiment for Chinese stock market: a wavelet-based approach

In this article, we re-examine the causality between the stock returns and investor sentiment in China. The number of net added accounts is used as a proxy for investor sentiment. To mimic the different investment horizons of market participants, we use the wavelet method to decompose stock returns and investor sentiment into time series with different frequencies. Additionally, we test for nonlinear causal relationships based on Taylor series approximation. Our results indicate that there is a one-directional linear causality from stock returns to investor sentiment on the original series, while there is a strong bi-directional nonlinear causality between stock returns and investor sentiment at different timescales.     

Managerial flexibility, uncertainty, and corporate investment: The real options effect

This paper examines how changes in uncertainty affect corporate investment and how managerial flexibility influences this effect. Consistent with existing evidence, this study shows that increased uncertainty reduces a firm's capital expenditures even after controlling for investment opportunities and fund availability. It further shows that the negative effect of increased uncertainty on corporate investment is more pronounced for firms with fewer financial constraints and larger size. Overall, the results suggest that managerial flexibility proxied by certain firm characteristics affects the negative relation between uncertainty and investment.     

投资者关系管理与企业风险承担*

公司治理的功效不仅体现在提高企业经营业绩上，促进企业科学决策，合理进行风险控制，实现企业的长期稳定发展也同等重要。本文以2012—2017年我国沪深A股上市公司为样本，利用南京大学联合中国证监会开展的投资者关系管理状况调查，实证检验投资者关系管理对企业风险承担的影响。研究发现：（1）投资者关系管理越好的企业，企业承担的风险水平越低，表明投资者关系管理具有自主性治理效应，能抑制企业过多的风险性行为，从而有效降低企业所承担的风险水平。（2）投资者关系管理的这一治理效应在内部和外部监督机制薄弱的企业中更为显著，说明良好的投资者关系管理一定程度上能形成企业内外部监督机制的弥补，从而对企业所承担的风险产生治理作用。（3）投资者关系管理通过抑制企业过度负债和过度投资降低了企业所承担的风险水平，而与此同时，没有证据表明投资者关系管理导致了企业投资不足，从而带来投资效率的损失。（4）CEO财务背景和董秘专业能力的内部因素以及机构投资者调研、网络媒体平台开通的外部因素对于企业投资者关系管理水平具有显著的促进作用。     

Covered Call Investing in a Loss Aversion Framework

In a mean-variance framework, the covered call investment strategy has been seen as an inefficient method of allocating wealth. Covered calls reduce the riskiness of the portfolio and therefore lead to lower portfolio returns. Recent debate has focused on the shortcomings of mean-variance efficiency as an accurate depiction of investor utility. Using alternative utility functions, we find mixed support for the use of the covered call investing strategy. Using loss aversion, however, we reexamine the covered call investment decision and find it significantly enhances investor utility relative to an index portfolio investment strategy. We conclude that loss aversion's more accurate depiction of investor preferences and behavior helps to explain the popularity of the covered call investment strategy.     

投资者关系管理与企业风险承担*

公司治理的功效不仅体现在提高企业经营业绩上,促进企业科学决策,合理进行风险控制,实现企业的长期稳定发展也同等重要。本文以2012—2017年我国沪深A股上市公司为样本,利用南京大学联合中国证监会开展的投资者关系管理状况调查,实证检验投资者关系管理对企业风险承担的影响。研究发现：（1）投资者关系管理越好的企业,企业承担的风险水平越低,表明投资者关系管理具有自主性治理效应,能抑制企业过多的风险性行为,从而有效降低企业所承担的风险水平。（2）投资者关系管理的这一治理效应在内部和外部监督机制薄弱的企业中更为显著,说明良好的投资者关系管理一定程度上能形成企业内外部监督机制的弥补,从而对企业所承担的风险产生治理作用。（3）投资者关系管理通过抑制企业过度负债和过度投资降低了企业所承担的风险水平,而与此同时,没有证据表明投资者关系管理导致了企业投资不足,从而带来投资效率的损失。（4）CEO财务背景和董秘专业能力的内部因素以及机构投资者调研、网络媒体平台开通的外部因素对于企业投资者关系管理水平具有显著的促进作用。     

The impact of financial crises and tolerance for uncertainty

Financial crises can have severe negative effects on investment. One reason for this is that financial crises increase uncertainty, increasing the real option value of delaying investment. In this paper, we show that the negative effect of crises on investment differs significantly across countries: in countries with low tolerance for uncertainty, the negative effect is strong. The negative effect is absent in countries that are more tolerant of uncertainty. These findings are similar across different types of financial crisis; they vary as predicted across type of investor, asset and industry; and they are not driven by uncertainty-averse countries adopting more rigid institutions.     

A Behavioral Model of Stock Market Investors' Impact on Consumption

This paper offers a theory of investor/consumer behavior in the context of an adaptive relationship. It shows how consumer spending and stock market gains and losses interact in a "gradual diffusion" process. The model offers predictions about likely changes in investor behavior, and the impact on the underlying economy in general and consumption in particular. These predictions are validated empirically. Specifically, the paper finds that investors/consumers gradually smooth their "wealth spending" and accelerate consumption as they become more convinced that their gains are permanent. This is somewhat reminiscent of the "income smoothing" suggested by Friedman [1957]. We present evidence that the consumption wealth spending peaks at approximately 2.5%-3% of the stock market wealth cumulative gain in the previous twelve- to twenty-four-month period, while concurrent effects are negligible. The results also provide a partial explanation for the long cycle of a strong economy in the 1990s, and point out the danger to the economy from a prolonged stock market decline.     

Investors Facing Opportunistic Governments: Is it Really Good to “Know the Market” before Investing?

When a government cannot commit to future policies, investors face the risk of opportunistic behavior in addition to uncertain market conditions. We show that although reducing market uncertainty is sometimes essential for investment, it may aggravate problems of opportunism. The better informed the investor is before investing, the more information the government can infer from observing that investment takes place, in turn enabling more efficient rent extraction. This signaling effect can dominate; if the investor receives "too accurate" information before investing, the only equilibrium is the one in which no investment occurs.
JEL classification : D 82; L 51     

Does investor sentiment dynamically impact stock returns from different investor horizons? Evidence from the US stock market using a multi-scale method

This article uses the investor sentiment index to investigate the Granger causality between investor sentiment and stock returns for the US economy using a multi-scale method. To focus on the local analysis of different investor horizons, bivariate empirical mode decomposition is used to decompose time series of investor sentiment and stock returns at different timescales. We employ the linear and nonlinear integrated Granger causality method to examine the causal relationship of decomposed series on similar timescales. The results indicate both strong bilateral linear and nonlinear causality between longer-term investor sentiment and stock returns. However, there is no strong evidence for correlation of stock returns and investor sentiment on shorter timescales.     

政府补助、企业创新对投资者投资决策的信号传递效应

基于信号理论,从内外部信号视角出发,以2012-2018年中国上市科技型中小企业动态面板数据为研究样本,构建聚类稳健双向固定效应计量模型,实证分析政府补助、企业创新以及两者交互作用对外部投资者投资决策的影响机理。结果表明：政府补助向外部投资者传递积极信号,能够给科技型中小企业带来更多的外部投资;高风险的企业创新会抑制外部投资者的投资行为,向外部投资者传递消极信号。政府补助与企业创新的交互作用方面：政府直接补助一定程度上削弱了企业创新对投资者投资决策带来的消极影响,而间接补助则正向调节企业创新产出向投资者传递的消极信号。最后,提出缓解科技型中小企业融资约束的对策建议。     

心理还是实质:汶川地震对中国资本市场的影响

本文通过汶川地震这一独特自然事件,用公司与震中距离来衡量地震导致的投资者负面情绪(如焦虑和恐惧),研究汶川地震对中国资本市场造成的影响。与现有文献关于投资者情绪能够影响股票收益率的研究相一致,本文发现地震后12个月内(2008.6—2009.5),距离震中越近的公司,股票收益率越低。在控制了风险因素后,震中500公里以内的股票收益率显著为负,平均为每月-3%左右,而500公里以外的股票收益率不显著。并且公司与震中距离每增加1000公里,其年收益率平均升高3%。进一步分析发现,该现象地震前不存在,与系统风险的变化无关,并且不能由地震造成的实质经济损失来解释。总之,本文的研究表明汶川地震导致的投资者负面情绪能够影响股票收益率。     

Weather, investor irrationality and day-of-the-week anomaly: case of Indonesia

Finance is based on rational behavior assumption. Thus, the existence of day-of-weekend anomaly in the market can be the anti thesis of the assumption. Much research suggested the role of psychology as the explanation of this anomaly. However, it is rare to find a research investigating the relationship between psychology and day-of-week anomaly (DOWA). As one of the psychology factors is weather-induced mood, this research aims to investigate the relationship between weather cycle and DOWA. This paper used Indonesia average temperature level from 1999 up to 2009 for determining the proxy of moods; and found temperature level does not explain the market returns movements. Temperature level influences the DOWA implying the moods of investor establish the irrational behavior of the market. This result can be used as the explanation of irrationality behavior of investor on Monday. Further research is needed in term of investigating the relationship between psychology factors (need for cognition, heuristic bias, information ignorance, and other factors) and investor behavior.     

Order Flows,Investor Sentiments and Feedback Trade in Index Futures Market

This paper examines the presence of feedback trading, and investor sentiment drove feedback trading by traders in the Nifty 50 index futures contract in India. The results of the study using high-frequency data sampled at 10 min interval using VAR and contemporaneous VAR model as applied to market microstructure settings reveals negative evidence of feedback trade and investor sentiment-driven feedback trade in Nifty 50 futures contract. Further, consistency with noise trading hypothesis, order flows in Nifty 50 futures contract is less informative when traders are overly optimistic.

     

Global and Extreme Dependence Between Investor Sentiment and Stock Returns in European Markets

The authors investigate the global and extreme dependence structure between investor sentiment and stock returns in 7 European stock markets (Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Portugal, and the UK), over the period 1985–2015. Global dependence refers to the correlation of changes in sentiment and stock returns over the whole range of these 2 variables, and extreme dependence refers to the local correlation of high (i.e. asymptotic) changes in sentiment and high stock returns. Using copula models and a bootstrap procedure, 6 statistical tests are performed for this purpose. Among the results of the tests, the authors highlight those that provide evidence of contemporaneous lower extreme dependence and contemporaneous upper extreme independence between sentiment and returns. As policy implications, these results suggest that financial stability can be promoted if regulators consider the impact of their decisions on investor sentiment. Also, the results seem to support the arguments in favor of short selling ban during turmoil periods. Finally, overall, the results are relevant for both investors and regulators and reinforce the importance of considering investor sentiment to better understand the behavior of financial markets.