An economic analysis of family size decision making with reference to the developing areas of South Africa

A neoclassical utility framework is used to analyze links between decisions about family size and socioeconomic variables using data for 175 women in KwaZulu, South Africa. The demand curve for children is specified within a simultaneous model of family decision-making. "Child education, women's opportunity cost of time and formal market participation were negatively related to fertility, reflecting substitution from numbers of children (time intensive) to fewer, more educated children (less time intensive) as opportunity costs rise. Child labour was positively related to fertility. Strategies to reduce population growth rates should therefore include improvements in women's education and employment opportunities to raise their time costs, and time-saving devices to reduce demand for child labour."     

Cointegration and causality between fertility and female labor participation in Taiwan: A multivariate approach

Applying Hsiao's version of Granger causality, this paper uncovers no causality from fertility to female labor participation and fails to find the expected relationship that female labor participation negatively predicts fertility in Taiwan. This indicates that working women in Taiwan do not necessarily have fewer children. The finding of this study contradicts the results obtained when using the conventional regression method which finds bidirectional relationship between fertility and female labor participation. In addition, this study detects that education exerts a great influence on female labor participation but not on fertility.     

Chinese household saving and dependent children: Theory and evidence

This paper examines the impact of family size on household saving. We first study a theoretical life-cycle model that includes finite lifetimes and saving for retirement and in which parents care about the consumption by their dependent children. The model implies a negative relationship between the number of dependent children in the family and the household saving rate. Then, we test the model's implications using new survey data on household finances in China. We use the differential enforcement of the one-child policy across counties to address the possible endogeneity between household saving and fertility decisions in a two-stage least squares Tobit regression. We find that Chinese families with fewer dependent children have significantly higher saving rates. The data yields several additional insights on household saving patterns. Households with college-age children have lower saving rates, and households residing in urban areas have higher saving rates and a lower ratio of education expenditures to income. However, having an additional child reduces saving rates more for households in urban areas than in rural areas. Our regressions also indicate that saving rates vary with age and tend to be higher for households with more workers, higher education, better health, and more assets.     

Comparing family changes in two rural areas of Kenya: Past legacies and present realities

ABSTRACT

Fertility in Kenya declined from total fertility rate (TFR) 6.7 to 4.6 between 1989 and 2008/09. Initially, Western and Coast Provinces returned figures above and below the national average with TFR 8.1 and 5.4 respectively. Then fertility in Western Province declined substantially to TFR 5.6 while in Coast Province the decline was modest to TFR 4.8, above the national average in both provinces. I shall scrutinise this development by examining two rounds of qualitative case studies in rural villages in the two provinces, first in 1988–90 with a follow up in 2011. The analysis revealed that over time fewer children were born in the Western villages, but more in the Coast villages. The hypothesis is that differences in cultural (patriarchy and a mix of matriarchy and patriarchy) and religious (Christian and Muslim) legacies are crucial to understanding such disparities in childbearing. Attention is given to marriage, gender relations and female education.     

Intermarriage in a divided society: Ireland a century ago

This paper explores the characteristics associated with marriages between Roman Catholics and members of other religious denominations in Ireland before the Great War. Using the entire digitized returns of the 1911 population census, we find that such marriages were relatively rare, occurring in less than 1% of total marriages. Some of this infrequency can be attributed to ethno-religious hostility—especially in the north of the country. However, we also show that the rarity of intermarriage reflects local marriage markets, as non-Roman Catholics living in communities with fewer coreligionists were more likely to intermarry. We examine the individual characteristics of partners in these marriages, looking at the religious denomination of their children, their decision to marry out, and their fertility behavior. Our findings illustrate how the frequency of intermarriage reflects historical levels of intolerance, but only after local marriage market conditions have been accounted for.     

A new approach to household fertility behavior

A 1st step is taken in this discussion towards the explicit theoretical recognition that fertility decisions are made by pairs of individuals who conceivably have different preferences or are in different circumstances. The focus is on disagreements between spouses over desired family size. The discussion begins by identifying the costs and benefits of child services to each spouse, which involves consideration of the type of interdependency of the utility functions as well as the nature of the externality problem in the production of child service. Specific examples are included of situations in which disagreement is likely to occur. Using the National Fertility Survey of 1965, it is possible to test whether disagreements are more likely to occur in these identified cases. 2 types of fertility conflict are predicted: the wife desires fewer children than the husband and the reverse. The National Fertility Survey (NFS) data set contains 5617 interview records. A sample of 1559 women who were married once, husband present, nonmenopausal, aged 25-39 with valid answers to all questions were selected. Husband's schooling in excess of wife's increased the probability that conflict of the husband demanding fewer children type will arise and the probability was increased at higher levels of income. The demand for quality rose with income and placed additional pressure on a husband with more education to assist (via lost leisure time) in the creation of quality. The effects were highly nonlinear. Higher levels of status of the wife's (potential) job had the predicted effect of making wife demands fewer children conflict more likely, but only through intermediate levels of status. Another variable which had a significant influence on the probability of conflict was the husband's age, with higher husband's age leading to husband demanding fewer children than wife conflict.     

The effect of family planning exposure on fertility choices and reproductive health care in rural Pakistan

This paper investigates whether family planning exposure mainly through the Lady Health Worker Program has had any effect on women’s fertility choices and use of reproductive health care service in rural Pakistan, using the 2013 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS). Exploiting variations in the program intensity across regions, we conduct instrumental variables (IV) estimation on the impact of family planning exposure on women’s fertility preferences and reproductive behaviors. Our analysis shows that even in the presence of strong son preferences in Pakistan, increasing family planning exposure reduces women’s incentive to have additional children. Moreover, family planning exposure is associated with more antenatal care visits, more deliveries performed by skilled professionals, and a greater chance of delivery at the health center. Finally, we examine the heterogeneity in the effect on fertility preference by age group and education level, and find that the effect is mainly significant for the educated and young women.     

Fertility in Sub‐Saharan African Countries with Consideration to Health and Poverty*

Abstract: Fertility has begun to fall in sub‐Saharan Africa but it remains high on average and particularly for a few countries. This paper examines African fertility using a panel data set of 47 sub‐Saharan countries between 1962 and 2003. Fixed and random country effect estimates are made in models where the explanatory variables are suggested by the theory of the demographic transition as modified by Caldwell (1982) . Special attention is paid to the economic status of women, urbanization, the poverty level, and the health of the population including total health expenditures and the prevalence of HIV/AIDS. The results support Caldwell's hypothesis and are generally supportive of hypothesis that a fertility transition is occurring. HIV/AIDS is found to have a negative impact on fertility.     

Sociological challenges for Egypt’s development: 1981–2013

This paper examines the extent to which women’s education, fertility rate, corruption and urbanization affects long-term economic growth in Egypt. We are particularly interested in the impact of female education and fertility rate on economic growth, but we also examine the relationship between economic growth and corruption. The results suggest that investments in female education can reduce fertility rate with a small but significant immediate effect. As the fertility rate increases real GDP growth decreases with a lag of 2 years. The immediate effect of greater female education on real GDP is negative but overall it has a positive impact when lags are taken into account. Interestingly, the immediate effect of urbanization on real GDP growth was negative and turned to be positive on the long run. Finally, corruption was found to have a negative impact on GDP growth in Egypt over our studied time period.     

Adult Mortality,AIDS, and Fertility in Rural Malawi

The future course of fertility is a major determinant of economic development in many sub‐Saharan countries, so understanding how HIV/AIDS affects childbearing is of great interest. We show that fertility responds negatively to female mortality and positively to male mortality and that the overall fertility response is small. The negative effect of female mortality is in line with earlier studies that only focus on women and their infection and mortality risks, while the finding of a positive effect of adult‐male mortality is novel. One interpretation of this finding is that women who perceive a high risk of their husbands' or grown‐up sons' deaths are likely to want to have more children to ensure future support.     

Gender differences in job search among young workers: A study using displaced workers in the United States

This article investigates gender differences in job search, job tenure, and wages, whether these differences vary over the early part of the life‐cycle, and whether they are associated with fertility decisions. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youths on highly attached displaced workers aged 20 to 45, we find that 20‐ to 29‐year‐old women and women older than 40 experience longer spells of displacement than comparable men, but that time to a new job is similar by gender for those between 30 and 39 years of age. The age pattern in male–female wage differences in the post‐displacement job is similar, with the largest differences occurring at ages 20 to 29 and over 40. We find no gender differences in tenure in the post‐displacement job. We interpret the differences for the younger ages to be related to fertility and we provide evidence that supports this view.     

Overpopulation and unemployment in Zimbabwe

The size of Zimbabwe's African population has grown dramatically over the past 50 years, with 5.7 children on average being born per woman. The following factors are responsible for the rapid population growth in Zimbabwe: the country's economic prosperity during the period of the Central African Federation from 1953 to 1963, and its successful food policy before and after independence; the success of the health system, also in both periods; and the fact that women have not been incorporated into the economy as wage-earners. A brief historical overview is presented, followed by sections on the food policy and health system, reasons for the persistence of large families, and the relationship between wage-earning by women and the birth rate. The author also describes some of the problems caused by overpopulation. Engaging more women in regular wage-earning employment is the key to controlling the birth rate in Zimbabwe. Current government policies encouraging female employment in government services and the economy in general, along with the expansion of contraceptive services, could influence female fertility over the long term.     

The effects of female HIV/AIDS status on fertility and child health in Cambodia

Although Cambodia has been on a higher growth track, it still faces a great challenge in public health. Public health is closely related to the standard of living of the people and is indispensable for further economic development. This paper considers a serious public health problem, the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Cambodia. Specifically, it presents two testable hypotheses derived from a simple model and then empirically demonstrates these hypotheses, using data of more than 8000 women from the 2005 Cambodia Demographic and Health Survey (DHS). One hypothesis is the negative effect of female HIV on fertility, and the other is the positive effect of maternal HIV on child health status. Our estimation results are consistent with these hypotheses, implying that women infected with HIV tend to bear fewer children and their children are in better health.     

Impact of population planning on the size distribution of income: a theoretical and methodological framework

Widespread population problems exist in developing countries (LDCs). It is believed that excessive population growth may have a negative effect on improvement in the standard of living and eventually on the country's production capabilities (GNP). In an attempt to stimulate production, LDCs have developed family planning programmes to decrease the rate of population growth. However, many of the family planning programmes have failed in their aims of substantially reducing the rates. A few studies conducted in Pakistan have revealed the widespread use of family planning in urbanized areas. This study supports the claim that urbanization and the practice of family planning are positively related - variables such as education and religion figure prominently in the study. Several studies have been developed to examine the relationship between income distribution and various demographic aspects. These are broken down into: Type 1 studies, which deal with the effect that income has on socioeconomic and demographic and geographic factors; Type 2 studies, which deal with the theory that income has an effect on fertility; and Type 3 studies, which deal with interdependence between income and fertility variables. Income does have an effect on decisions to use contraception, despite government sponsored programmes. Recommendations made for improving the work of government sponsored programmes include: increasing educational opportunities for men and women in both urban and rural areas; providing job opportunities for women in non-agricultural areas; redistributing income from rich to poor; and the improvement of health and nutritional facilities.     

Recent fertility patterns and population policy in South Africa

This study presents estimated levels of age-specific fertility (ASF) and P/F ratios in South Africa, by selected characteristics for the African population. Data were obtained from the nationwide 1993 Living Standards Survey and adjusted to reflect ASF. The national total fertility rate (TFR) was 3.7 children/woman, or significantly higher than the 2.9 estimated by the 1994 October Household Survey. Fertility was highest in Northern Province (4.5). Three other provinces had over 4.0 TFR: Free State, Eastern Cape, and North-West. The lowest fertility was in Western Cape (2.3) followed by Gauteng (2.9). Whites had the lowest rates; Africans had the highest rates. Fertility declined for Africans and Indians. Fertility was associated with residence, age, and work status, and did not differ by residence for Africans. Differences between African and White fertility were in the timing of the start, peak, and termination of childbearing. Peak childbearing was 20-24 years for Africans and older ages for Whites and others. Adolescent childbearing among Africans was high in 4 regions and 2 provinces. Fertility declined among women aged over 30 years and rose among younger women. Fertility decline in any age group was not apparent in Venda and Bophuthatswana. Nonmarital fertility rose for all but the oldest childbearing ages. Fertility did not decline among well educated women aged under 40 years. Over 50% of African women in peak childbearing ages had never been married and had at least 1 baby. Fertility decline has slowed due to nonmarital childbearing and increased childbearing in the peak ages.     

Children as income-producing assets: the case of teen illegitimacy and government transfers

This paper develops a classical model of the teen fertility decision in the presence of public income transfers. The theoretical model predicts that welfare payments will encourage fertility, holding constant other economic opportunities, and that better economic opportunities will discourage fertility. Considering the possible simultaneity of illegitimacy rates and benefit levels, due to the collective choice process, the authors confirm the theoretical model's predictions with state-level data from 1980 through 1990. The authors find that including fixed effects in the regression to control for unobserved differences between states does not sufficiently control for endogeneity. After controlling for endogeneity, real welfare benefits are strongly and robustly related to teen illegitimacy. The point estimates of the elasticity with respect to changes in the illegitimacy rate are around +1.3 for White teens and +2.1 for Black teens. Real wages for women with a high school education or less are negatively related to teen illegitimacy for White teens, with an elasticity of around -0.4. Finally, male wages appear to have little effect on the illegitimacy rate for White teens but appear negatively correlated with the illegitimacy rate for Black teens in some model specifications.     

Upward mobility and the demand for children: Evidence from China

This paper aims to investigate a new determinant of the demand for children: upward mobility. Upward mobility can affect the demand for children in two opposite directions: upward mobility means more resources to spend on childbearing and increases the demand for children; it also lowers the need to rely on children for old-age support and this leads to lower demand for children. In this paper, we use the difference between the subject's self-evaluations of the future and current social class as the measure of upward mobility, and fertility desire to represent the demand for children. Using the Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) data, we find that upward mobility significantly increases the demand for children, and the results are robust across various model specifications (pooled data regression, Poisson regression, and IV regression). The effect is concentrated among affluent and/or urban households, suggesting that those from more advantaged social-economic backgrounds appear to have a higher elasticity of fertility in response to upward mobility. Our results imply that improving upward mobility and public services such as education, health care, and social security would be effective to boost fertility in China.     

A Profile of Poverty in Egypt

This paper presents a profile of poverty in Egypt for 1997. It assesses the magnitude of poverty and its distribution across geographic and socioeconomic groups, provides information on the characteristics of the poor, illustrates the heterogeneity amongst the poor, and helps identify empirical correlates of poverty. This poverty profile is constructed using data from the Egypt Integrated Household Survey (EIHS), which is a nationwide, multiple‐topic household survey. One of the more striking set of findings relates to the differences between the poor and the non‐poor in their educational attainments. Our results indicate a significant literacy and schooling gap between the poor and the non‐poor. On average the poor have 2.6 fewer years of schooling than the non‐poor, and their literacy rate is 27 percent lower than the non‐poor. Our results also indicate that augmenting educational attainment of the poor does not require building more schools, but reducing the poor’s opportunity cost of attending schools and increasing their returns from extra schooling, both suggesting the importance of income generating activities as a policy instrument.     

Gender Difference in Returns to Education Independent of Gender Wage Gap in Korea*

This study examined the difference between male and female groups’ return on investment (ROI) in education independent of the average gender wage gap. Women’s additional ROI in education was significant and positively estimated. Furthermore, the ROI in women’s education was consistently higher than that in men regardless of educational stage, except for graduate education. These gender differences were greater in the younger generation than in the older generation and have decreased significantly in the recent ten years in high school education. Although the additional ROI in women’s education was positive in the field of culture and arts, education’s effect on wage increases in professional occupations was less than in men, especially in the fields of law and medicine. In addition, we show that gender differences in ROI in education were countercyclical. A base effect, large wage declines for low‐educated women during recessions, could explain this phenomenon. However, coinciding with the existence of positive cash flow news in the stock market that promises good business performance, a significant wage increase among highly educated women was found.