菲利普斯曲线:理论与模型的动态演变与评论

菲利普斯曲线提供了把失业与通货膨胀关联起来的方程式,填补了凯恩斯理论中的通货膨胀缺口,成为凯恩斯宏观经济模型的重要组成部分。在预期方式的不同、价格调整的方法不同、货币经济等约束条件下,菲利普斯曲线产生了不同的模型形式,具体可以划分为传统的菲利普斯曲线、后顾菲利普斯曲线和新菲利普斯曲线三个阶段,并且每个阶段在不同的假设条件下又包含几种不同的曲线形式。这些形式是对原始的菲利普斯曲线模型的补充和发展,丰富了菲利普斯曲线模型,加强了模型对实际的解释能力和理论基础。同时需要注意的是,建立在西方经济假设条件下的菲利普斯曲线,在中国二元经济条件下的应用,则要做修正和补充。     

我国失业与通货膨胀关系的实证分析

菲利普斯曲线在宏观经济领域是一个被视为经典理论,它说明了失业和通货膨胀相互替代关系.2006年诺贝尔经济学奖得主埃德蒙·费尔普斯对菲利普斯曲线进行了修正,提出了附加预期的菲利普斯曲线.本文利用我国90年至05年的相关数据对这两个曲线进行了实证检验,得出了我国失业与通胀负相关关系并不显著的结论,并对此进行了初步的解释,提出了政策建议.     

附加预期的菲利普斯曲线评析

菲尔普斯在承认传统的菲利普斯曲线短期存在的情况下在价格和工资粘性假设、自然失业率假说和适应性预期或理性预期假设的基础上对附加预期菲利普斯曲线做了更深入的研究．提出长期菲利普斯曲线存在的形式，这一成果弥补了传统菲利普斯曲线时间上的限制，改变了人们长期以来对通货膨胀和失业之间关系的传统认识，加深了人们对经济政策对经济的长期影响与短期影响关系的理解。     

菲利普斯曲线在中国经济中的实证研究--基于产出缺口的分析

文章着重检验了我国经济中的基于产出缺口的菲利普斯曲线的存在性.文章首先将实际产出分解成不可观测趋势成分和周期成分,设定它们服从一个简单的向量自回归过程,再运用卡尔曼滤波技术估计出我国1952～2002年的实际产出,从而得到产出缺口的估计值.然后以产出缺口和通货膨胀率的滞后值作为解释变量对通货膨胀率进行回归,发现在我国菲利普斯曲线在长期内是不成立的.     

中国通货膨胀与失业率的关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证研究

文章主要根据我国1985-2019年居民消费物价指数和城镇登记失业率的统计数据,运用VAR模型,研究我国通货膨胀与失业率的关系,识别菲利普斯曲线在我国的适用性,以此为政府采取宏观调控政策提供依据.研究结果表明:我国通货膨胀与失业率具有双向格兰杰因果关系,且菲利普斯曲线在我国短期成立,长期而言,由于理性预期的存在,菲利普...     

基于动态面板数据的中国菲利普斯曲线稳健性分析

基于中国1978-2008年31个省市的动态面板数据,运用系统广义矩估计方法,分别考察了传统的菲利普斯曲线、新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线和混合菲利普斯曲线在中国的适用性及稳健性。结果表明三种类型的菲利普斯曲线在中国省际动态面板数据意义上都是成立的,且都是稳健的。政策含义是,政策制定需高度重视人们对通货膨胀率的前瞻性预期。     

关于菲利普斯曲线的简单中国实证研究

菲利普斯曲线是衡量失业率与通货膨胀率之间关系的一条曲线,本文简略概述了菲利普斯曲线的提出和发展历程,并且运用最新的中国数据对简单的菲利普斯曲线进行了实证研究,并对结果进行了一定的分析.     

中国经济转轨时期的菲利普斯曲线

本文尝试用长期菲利普斯曲线的环形曲线模型来解释我国经济体制转轨以来的菲利普斯曲线的变动情况。探讨我国菲利普斯曲线变动的原因,分析我国菲利普斯曲线的变动与经济周期的关系。对今后一段内我国菲利普斯曲线的变动趋势作出预测,进而提出适宜的宏观经济政策思路。当然,由于众所周知的原因,我国的失业率被公认为低于真实的失业水平,但这并不影响菲利普斯曲线的总趋势。     

关于通货膨胀容忍度的分析--基于双重菲利普斯曲线

菲利普斯曲线是反映失业率和通货膨胀率之间交替取舍关系的曲线。一国为降低失业率，需要容忍一定程度的通货膨胀。菲利普斯曲线是国家制定宏观经济政策的基本理论依据。在后金融危机时代，全球经济依然低迷，主要经济体纷纷进行货币干预，我国的通胀将受到多种因素影响。因此，国家在采取宏观经济政策刺激经济增长、增加就业时，需要考虑通货膨胀的容忍度，使菲利普斯曲线不断完善，以适应我国的需要，而不是单纯将传统菲利普斯曲线作为在通胀和失业之间权衡的政策导向。     

基于中国国情对菲利普斯曲线的实证研究

中国的宏观经济是否可以运用西方菲利普斯曲线进行研究,国内学者观点不一.本文采用中国1979年到2014年之间的失业率和通货膨胀率数据来拟合原始、附加预期的、附加预期以及自然失业率的菲利普斯曲线,对我国的宏观经济数据进行实证分析与研究,验证西方菲利普斯曲线在中国是否适用.     

重新认识菲利普斯曲线的真正价值

菲利普斯曲线的真正价值不在于失业率与通胀率之间的置换关系而在于对经济运行态势的勾勒。短期菲利普斯曲线可分为六种类型，长期菲利普斯曲线则极不规则，就实现宏观调控而言，研究短期菲利普斯曲线更有意义。     

Is There a Trade-Off between COVID-19 Control and Economic Activity? Implications from the Phillips Curve Debate

In this paper, we argue that the roles of public policies concerning COVID-19 can be better understood in light of the past discussions on the Great Inflation of the 1970s and the 1980s. Like the Phillips Curve in macroeconomics, the pandemic presents a trade-off between economic activities and something undesirable, which is, in this case, infection. Like the Phillips Curve, this apparent output-infection trade-off is an elusive one and it is lost in the long run. Containing infections calls for decisive policy action. This paper shows that we could design a reaction function, which sets the level of economic activity as a function of the state of infection, in such a way that the possibility of an infection explosion would be eliminated. Our empirical analysis suggests that Tokyo, New York, and London since September 2020 do not satisfy this desirable property.     

基于新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线的中国货币状况指数构建及其应用

实证研究表明,我国的菲利普斯曲线是一条兼顾前瞻性和后顾性的新凯恩斯混合型菲利普斯曲线。有鉴于此,本文通过构建一个新凯恩混合斯菲利普斯曲线方程来估计中国MCI的权重。对这一新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线方程的GMM估计结果表明,中国MCI三个要素（利率、汇率和货币供应量）的权重比例为1：9.8：35.1。分析显示我们构建的MCI指数走势很好地对应了中国通货膨胀的反向运动。进一步的计量和统计分析表明,我们构建的MCI指数不但可以作为中国货币政策的信息指示器,还是一个潜在的货币政策操作目标变量,但还不足以用作诸如BT型和Ball型等形式的货币政策规则。     

THE LONG RUN PHILLIPS CURVE AND THE GOVERNMENT BUDGET CONSTRAINT

This paper considers the proposition that the long run Phillips Curve is vertical except in special cases. It argues that this proposition cannot be sustained once the implications of the government budget constraint are considered. It is then a matter for government policy choice whether the long run Phillips Curve is vertical or non-vertical, and neither case can be considered more general than the other.     

Globalization and flattening of Phillips Curve in Turkey between 1987 and 2007

In the last two decades, there have been important changes in inflation dynamics in Turkey. While average inflation rate, inflation volatility and inflation persistence declined, the prices of tradable goods have shown an increase less than prices of non-tradable goods. The aim of this paper is to inquire whether the globalization has an effect on this change and to test whether and how it affected the slope of the Phillips Curve. The findings point out that global activity did have an effect on domestic inflation rate and that Phillips Curve got flatter.     

Globalization and inflation: A threshold investigation

We use a threshold methodology to investigate the importance of non-linear effects in the analysis of the inflation globalization hypothesis. Accounting for potential non-linearities in the Phillips Curve, we show that trade openness is not rejected as a threshold variable for the effects of domestic and foreign slack on inflation in many advanced economies, and we find a switch of the output gap slopes from one regime to the other that is consistent with the key predictions of the inflation globalization hypothesis. For some countries the threshold Phillips Curve model also leads to improvements in out-of-sample forecast over the linear Phillips models, especially at longer horizons. Contrary to most of the previous literature which ignores such non-linearities, our new approach provides some interesting empirical evidence supportive of the effect globalization has on a country’s inflation dynamics.     

Is there a natural level of capacity utilization?

Previous studies of the Phillips Curve using capacity, utilization have estimated NAIRCU to be in the neighborhood of 82%. These studies estimate NAIRCU by imposing the restriction that there is no stable long run relationship between capacity utilization and the rate of inflation. The authors of these studies test the validity of this restricted model by estimating a model of the Phillips Curve, which has no supply-side variables. However, the actual estimates of NAIRCU are derived from restricted models, which include supply side variables. This article replicates these findings and then tests the validity of the restriction using a correctly specified model. An important finding is that the restriction is not valid and therefore the models used to produce estimates of NAIRCU are misspecified. Our findings call into question the existence of a vertical long run Phillips Curve. The implications of our findings are that the FED was overly cautious in raising interest rates to slow the economy and that the policy of pursuing “full employment” is still viable. I would like to thank James Swaney, Paulette Olson and Thomas Traynor for their helpful comments and numerous suggestion on an earlier version of this paper. Any errors that remain are the sole responsibility of the author.     

Wages and prices in Europe before and after the onset of the Monetary Union

This paper investigates possible structural changes induced by the Euro on the relations among wages, prices and unemployment for the five major European economies. The dynamic adjustment and the level relations are found to be different across subperiods as well as across countries. During the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) period, there is evidence of a conventionally-sloped Phillips Curve for the four economies within the EMU, with a higher degree of homogeneity with respect to the pre-EMU period; the UK presents instead a positively-sloped Phillips Curve in the EMU period. In this latter period, deviations from reference values are found to influence unemployment for all countries, including the UK. Only for Germany and Spain, instead, we find evidence that deviations from reference values influence inflation dynamics.     

The asymmetry of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the euro-area

Using a two-stage quantile regression framework, we uncover significant asymmetries across quantiles for all coefficients in an otherwise standard New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) for the euro area. A pure NKPC specification accurately captures inflation dynamics at high inflation quantiles.     

A simple test of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

We propose a way to test the New Keynesian Phillips Curve without having to estimate its structural parameters. We find that it does not exist as a combination of the structural parameters consistent with the US data. This might be due to the failure of the joint hypothesis of rational expectations.