A review of research on tourism demand forecasting: Launching the Annals of Tourism Research Curated Collection on tourism demand forecasting

This study reviews 211 key papers published between 1968 and 2018, for a better understanding of how the methods of tourism demand forecasting have evolved over time. The key findings, drawn from comparisons of method-performance profiles over time, are that forecasting models have grown more diversified, that these models have been combined, and that the accuracy of forecasting has been improved. Given the complexity of determining tourism demand, there is no single method that performs well for all situations, and the evolution of forecasting methods is still ongoing.This article also launches the Annals of Tourism Research Curated Collection on tourism demand forecasting, which contains past and hot off the press work on the topic and will continue to grow as new articles on the topic appear in Annals.     

A management orientated approach to combination forecasting of tourism demand

Volatility, exponential smoothing, regression and Naïve 2 models are considered singly and in combination in terms of forecasting demand for international tourism. These models generate accurate predictions of tourism flows, but their prime utility is when combined with other models. Usually, models are combined by means of purely statistical criteria. We show that goal programming (GP) offers an alternative, flexible approach to model combination. GP offers planners a practical solution to tourism forecasting problems, since the method is more adaptable than conventional minimisation of prediction error, by permitting practitioners to prioritise a series of management related goals. Forecasters can focus on longer- and short-term goals, minimising forecast under- and over-estimation and/or concentrate on prediction errors in tourism flows at various times of the year.     

Tourism demand for Italy and the business cycle

This study provides a strategy for modelling the effect of the business cycle on tourism demand under the rationale that tourism cycles are heavily influenced by lagged effects of the overall business cycle. Using quarterly data on overnight stays in Italian hotels, both domestic and inbound between 1985 and 2004, we adopt a structural time series approach to evaluate two alternative models, the first with a latent cycle component (LCC) and the second based on specific economic explanatory variables (XCV). The two models are compared in terms of explanatory power, best-fit, residual diagnostics and forecasting ability. The results show similar performances. The policy implication is that the XCV model can be used for calibrating countercyclical interventions in tourism policy.     

Tourism research on the Caribbean: An evaluation

Abstract

A content analytical review of a select bibliography of tourism research on the anglophone Caribbean is provided according to time period, territorial focus, subject area, and authorship. Salient features of the literature are described along with their deficiencies. More specifically, questions of theory and method are examined, and certain suggestions are offered where improvement can be made.     

《旅游法》与我国旅游行政治理体系的变革研究

在综述分析的基础上,文章对我国传统的旅游行政治理体系进行总结,并从我国旅游行政治理的主体和客体、职能目标和理念、手段和内容等结构层次,对《旅游法》实施后的旅游行政治理体系的变革进行系统分析。研究发现,《旅游法》推动了旅游行政治理主体和客体的扩大化;引导治理理念转向服务、公平、可持续发展导向;强化法律手段,且进一步改进和提升了治理内容。研究据此提出了《旅游法》推进实施的建议措施。     

Tourism product development and the changing consumer demand: A case study of Kenya

Kenya is an important tourist destination in Africa accounting for over 6% of the total international tourist arrivals to the continent. However, in recent years Kenya's tourism industry has been experiencing problems of poor performance and continuing decline in the number of international tourist arrivals. This study examines the main characteristics of the country's tourism product vis‐a‐vis the changing trends in global tourism market demands. It is argued that the underlying cause of the recent poor performance of the tourism industry relates to the nature of the country's tourism product. Over the years, Kenya has been offering a limited tourism product that is based on beach and wildlife tourism. Also, the marketing of Kenya mainly depends on overseas tour operators who mainly sell inclusive tour packages. Thus, the form of tourism product that is offered by Kenya has not responded to the recent changes and trends in international tourism market demands. Post‐modern tourists, particularly tourists from developed countries, are increasing becoming aware of the negative impacts of mass tourism and are increasingly looking for alternative tourism products that provide a deeper and more meaningful experience. Thus, if Kenya is to rejuvenate its tourism industry there is need for the country to provide a diverse alternative tourism product which is more appealing to the post‐modern tourists.     

Teaching Global Tourism Geography Using the Internet

Abstract

A paradigmatic shift is taking place from using technology as a presentation tool to integrating technology as a processing center of interactive teaching and learning unconstrained by time and place. This research was conducted as a case study in enhancing a travel and tourism class, Global Tourism Geography, by applying the new technological paradigm, especially the Internet. A survey of students in the class was conducted and yielded a favorable response to the incorporation of the Internet. However, it was concluded that the most effective instruction resulted from the combination of the Internet with other instructional delivery methods.     

Tourism and the geopolitics of Buddhist heritage in Nepal

This study explores the intricacies of geopolitical imagination at a heritage attraction in Nepal, when a Chinese NGO proposed an investment project to develop it as tourism hub. It seeks to investigate the discourses and reasons deployed by Nepali tourism stakeholders in explaining the Chinese plan. The study applies qualitative methodology and the primary data which were collected through 20 semi-structured interviews. The study shows that in articulating the project aim, the agency of national actors is shaped by the regional power struggle and a ‘nationalist’ sentiment originated from perceived threat to the heritage in question. The finding is useful in understanding the complexities of geopolitical constraints that can influence tourism development projects.     

强化国家义务之《旅游法》立法理念创新——基于公民旅游权保障视角

我国传统的管制型政府(国家)背景下,立法在规制国家与公民关系时,以公民基本权利-国家权力关系为指针,立法者将侧重点放在国家权力规范设计上,突出国家权力对公民权利的保障。今天,随着以人为本法治理念与服务型政府建设的推进,我国服务型政府正取代传统的管制型政府,公民权利保障制度设计上必然走出传统的公民基本权利-国家权力关系理念,采取替代性公民基本权利-国家义务关系理念。2013年4月通过的《旅游法》作为综合性法律,适应新形势要求,全面规范了国家尊重、保护、促进公民旅游权之义务,呈现了规制公民-国家关系之国家义务强化趋势。     

基于《旅游学刊》关键词分析的中国旅游研究知识体系解析

文章通过对《旅游学刊》2000～2010年1373篇文章的共5205频次的关键词进行归并、排序、分组,提取出了162个核心关键词和8个基因词,以反映国内旅游研究的关注重点与研究进展,揭示旅游现象与本质之间的互动与交融。同时,基于关键词的分析,为旅游研究知识体系的解析提供了一个新视角。     

从CAJCCR看《旅游学刊》的学术影响

文章以<旅游学刊>2001-2004年4年间所发表的408篇论文作为样本,运用科学计量学的方法,利用<中国学术期刊综合引证报告>(CAJCCR)的数据,对该刊的指标进行纵向和横向定量比较分析,所得结果客观地反映了目前<旅游学刊>及其论文的学术地位和应注意的问题,对于科研人员注意旅游学科最新研究动态,有效地收集利用文献有一定的指导作用;也是为进一步提升<旅游学刊>的水平,适应知识研究不断创新和发展的需要.     

An Application of the Social Psychological Model of Tourism Motivation

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to empirically test Iso-Ahola's (1982) Social Psychological Model of Tourism Motivation (SPMTM). The model is more commonly known as the seeking-escaping theory. Data were collected through a mail survey with 286 respondents and a 31.1% response rate. Factor analysis of the motivation items resulted in a six factor solution. The factors fit into the seeking and escaping dimensions of the SPMTM, thus confirming the model. Motivational factors were compared between Non-Caucasians and Caucasians. Significant differences between the two groups provided support for the subcultural hypothesis, which attributes differences in leisure preferences to differences in norms and values based on racial and ethnic groups.     

Tourism development and the tourism area life-cycle model: A case study of Zhangjiajie National Forest Park, China

The conceptual framework of the Tourism Area Life Cycle (TALC) has been frequently examined since it was first proposed by Butler in 1980. However, few studies have applied the concept to national parks and other protected areas. This paper examines the applicability of the model to China's Zhangjiajie National Forest Park. In addition, both external and internal factors affecting the park's tourism development as well as the environmental, social, and economic changes of the area are also discussed. Results indicate that the park has experienced the first four stages as described in Butler's 1980 seminal paper [The concept of a tourist area cycle of evolution: Implications for management of resources. Canadian Geographer, 24, 5–12]. Currently, the park is in the consolidation stage. Both governments and the private sector are major players as catalysts for the park's tourism development from one stage to the next. While the local or even regional economy has become increasingly dependent on tourism, the park has also been experiencing noticeable transformation and loss of traditional cultures since its inception in 1982. Finally limitations to the current paper are outlined.     

Tourism Market Recovery in the Maldives After the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami

SUMMARY

This paper will use a range of tourism data and a case study to examine the rates of recovery of ten source markets for the Maldives in the wake of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. The market response and recovery rates for these ten markets varied significantly and the reasons for this will be explored. It is evident that a 'one size fits all' marketing strategy will not in itself be sufficient to achieve acceptable rates of recovery following a disaster. The strategies, opportunities and rates of market recovery experienced in the Maldives will provide useful insights for the marketing and monitoring of other destinations that have experienced a crisis or disaster.     

论旅游学术期刊与旅游人才培养及教学科研的关系——以《旅游学刊》为例

学术期刊对科研工作和人才培养起着重要的导向作用。本文通过分析《旅游学刊》的相关文献数字 ,以及对其办刊方针和审稿制度的解析 ,阐述了期刊文献对旅游研究选题、研究水准、研究方法的导向作用 ;对研究型人才的发掘培养与催化作用 ,以及对教学的补充作用。     

Profiling the Strategic Marketing Activities of Small Tourism Businesses

Abstract

This study profiles the strategic marketing activities of small tourism businesses, by examining the extent to which they engage in specified practices which may be broadly described as “strategic.” It was found that city-based enterprises are more strategic in their emphasis than their rural counterparts, and that larger small businesses are more strategic than smaller small businesses. Businesses which engage in product packaging appear to be more strategic than those which do not. Possible explanations for the relatively low incidence of strategic marketing amongst small tourism business generally are a lack of managerial expertise and the absence of staff to whom tasks may be delegated.     

Tourism and inequality: A relook on the Kuznets curve

The study explores the impact of the tourism industry on income inequality upon a panel set of countries, classified in accordance with their levels of economic development. The countries are classified into three clusters based on their per capita GDP, the volume of international trade, and foreign direct investment inflows. The income inequality was measured using the GINI score. The long-run relationship between tourism receipts and GINI income inequality was explored for a panel set of forty-one countries over the period 1995 to 2016. The study concludes that earnings from tourism have varying impacts on the three clustered sets of countries. The inequality index of the highly developed countries remains unaffected by the earnings from tourism. The developed countries show Kuznets curve behaviour as far as the relationship between tourism and inequality is concerned. The developing countries exhibit an inverted Kuznets curve behaviour between tourism receipts and inequality of income.     

从2000～2009年《旅游学刊》载文统计探究旅游学术研究的发展

本文运用数理统计对《旅游学刊》2000～2009①年共83期载文的研究内容、研究方法、基金资助等指标进行统计分析。研究发现:10年来旅游学术的研究内容以旅游研究的问题与方法及接待业研究为主,旅游环境及交通研究处于相对无人问津的局面;研究方法多以定性研究和综述及理论构建为主;文献的基金资助10年来增加明显,以省级资助为主;载文作者所处地域则是以经济较发达的东部地区占绝大部分,中西部比例较小,但中西部部分省份旅游学术研究发展速度较快。     

Crisis Communication and Recovery for the Tourism Industry

Abstract

As the number of disasters and crises affecting the tourism industry increases, it is becoming necessary to understand the nature of these disasters and how to manage and limit the impacts of such incidents. This paper defines crises and disasters before discussing the area of crisis communication management and crisis communication in the tourism industry. The paper then applies the foot and mouth disease (FMD) which occurred in the United Kingdom to crisis communication theory at a national level (by examining the response of the British Tourist Authority) and at a local level (by examining the response of a District Council). The response was limited in part because of a lack of preparedness, but also due to the nature of the foot and mouth outbreak, and the speed and severity of international media coverage. Action was taken in the emergency phase of the crisis and was reactive involving inconsistency in developing key messages to stakeholders, partly due to confusion and a lack of information at the national level. Recovery marketing was also limited due to the length of time of the disease outbreak. This paper provides lessons for destinations and organisations are discussed which may help develop crisis communication strategies for tourism organisations.     

旅游产业集群化发展的制约因素分析--以大九寨国际旅游区为例

产业集群是区域旅游业竞争力提升的有效模式.近年来我国许多地方的旅游业呈现出产业集群化发展趋势,但要真正实现由产业集聚到产业集群的演变,还需要解决好许多问题.本文以大九寨国际旅游区为例,对旅游产业集群化发展过程中存在的问题进行深入分析,并对此提出了对策建议.