What do we know about the second moment of financial markets?

Recent research shows that the vast majority of scientific studies published in leading finance journals fails scientific replication (Hou, Xue, and Zhang, 2020; Harvey, Liu, and Zhu; 2016). This study argues that p-hacking, publication pressure and the selection bias from leading finance journals are perhaps not the underlying root cause for this issue. This study shows that standard methodologies often used in finance research are inevitably sample-specific due to the very nature of financial markets. While the consensus of earlier research postulates a rejection of the time-honored Levy hypothesis, the results of this study strongly indicate that the variance of variance does not exist in any of the financial key markets that are considered. An unexpected finding of this study is that the variance process governing the U.S. dollar foreign exchange rate market is generating more extreme events than the Bitcoin market. The results cast doubts on the validity of methodologies currently used in finance research.     

Credit risk interconnectedness: What does the market really know?

We analyze the relation between market-based credit risk interconnectedness among banks during the crisis and the associated balance sheet linkages via funding and securities holdings. For identification, we use a proprietary dataset that has the funding positions of banks at the bank-to-bank level for 2006–2013 in conjunction with investments of banks at the security level and the credit register from Germany. We find asymmetries both cross-sectionally and over time: when banks face difficulties to raise funding, the interbank lending affects market-based bank interconnectedness. Moreover, banks with investments in securities related to troubled classes have a higher credit risk interconnectedness. Overall, our results suggest that market-based measures of interdependence can serve well as risk monitoring tools in the absence of disaggregated high-frequency bank fundamental data.     

What do we know about the role of financial reporting in debt contracting and debt covenants?

The paper examines the role of financial reporting in debt contracting and in particular focuses on the definition, measurement, and monitoring of accounting-based covenants used to manage agency relationships arising from borrowing by firms. The paper also reviews research in areas of financial reporting where the presence of accounting-based covenants provides incentives to managers, notably choice of accounting method, lobbying on standard setters' proposals, and accounting earnings management. Although US dominated and latterly increasingly focused on large datasets and quantitative and analytical methods, relevant research is available from a range of methodologies and countries and the paper reflects this variety and identifies both inter-jurisdictional differences and inter-temporal changes in debt contracting practices. Despite the extensive research which is reviewed important areas for new research remain.     

What should we know about momentum investing? The case of the Australian Security Exchange

This paper investigates Australian momentum strategies and their performance stability separately employing two samples a) the S&P/ASX 200 constituents and b) all market securities; for different time periods and market states. To avoid transaction intensive strategies, non-overlapping portfolios are employed. Results show that momentum performance is not sample specific and is positive in all cases, yet at varying magnitudes for different states and years. The profits are robust to univariate and multivariate risk considerations, seasonality (which is however present), and to different starting months.     

Credit risk and the business cycle: What do we know?

We perform a meta-regression analysis to characterize the relationship between ex post credit risk, measured through non-performing loans and real GDP growth. Although the prior empirical literature reveals a statistically significant inverse association, the precise effect of growth performance to credit quality diverges and remains subject to several qualifications. Using estimates from 56 studies and applying a Bayesian meta-regression analysis we explore the systematic patterns of the heterogeneity in the reported estimates. According to our evidence, the specification form as well as features related to the type of data, and the sample period are factors that systematically influence the estimated results.     

Fintech and banking: What do we know?

This paper is a review of the literature on fintech and its interaction with banking. Included in fintech are innovations in payment systems (including cryptocurrencies), credit markets (including P2P lending), and insurance, with Blockchain-assisted smart contracts playing a role. The paper provides a definition of fintech, examines some statistics and stylized facts, and then reviews the theoretical and empirical literature. The review is organized around four main research questions. The paper summarizes our knowledge on these questions and concludes with questions for future research.     

What is science’s crisis really about?

Present day reasoning about difficulties in science reproducibility, science governance, and the use of science for policy could benefit from a philosophical and historical perspective. This would show that the present crisis was anticipated by some scholars of these disciplines, and that diagnoses were offered which are not yet mainstream among crisis-aware disciplines, from statistics to medicine, from bibliometrics to biology. Diagnoses in turn open the path to possible solutions. This discussion is urgent given the impact of the crises on public trust in institutions. We ask whether the present crisis may be seminal in terms of drawing attention to alternative visions for the role of Science in society, and its relevant institutional arrangements. We finish by offering a number of suggestions in this direction.     

COVID-19 social distancing and the US service sector: What do we learn?

This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 social distancing on the US service sector. Results from four industry indexes (hotels, entertainment, restaurants and airlines) indicate that conditional correlations among index pairs exhibited substantial increases. Iterated Cumulative Sums of Squares (ICSS) tests in dynamic conditional correlations show that while the relationship between airlines and entertainment venues is unstable, restaurants and hotels demonstrate stable co-movement. Markov regime-switching regression analysis suggests the pandemic is affecting mainly the entertainment and airline industries, with gradual deterioration in the hotel industry, led by small-market-cap companies. However, we see no evidence of a negative impact on the restaurant industry from the pandemic in our analysis period. This may be related to Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Based on our results, we recommend employment of effective working capital and supply chain management methods in the service sector to streamline the operations of affected companies. In addition, all other sectors should utilize appropriate methods of risk measurement and should take 'Black Swans' into account to incorporate a more accurate probability of unexpected events.     

What do we know about the price spillover between green bonds and Islamic stocks and stock market indices?

This paper investigates the risk transmission, linkages, and directional predictability between green bonds, Islamic stocks, and other asset classes. Using daily data from November 2008 to August 2020, we use the Standard & Poor's (S&P) Green Bond Index to represent the green bond market and the Dow Jones Islamic World Index and the S&P Global Shariah Indices to represent Islamic stocks. The other asset classes considered include the S&P 500 Stock Composite, S&P 500 Bond, and S&P 500 Energy indices. This paper uses the novel quantile cross-spectral (coherency), the windowed scalogram difference (WSD), and the cross-quantilogram (CQ) correlation approaches. The results from the quantile coherency analysis reveal a negative spillover effect from green bond price returns to Islamic stocks in the long run, which indicates that the green bond market poses a long-run systemic risk to Islamic stocks. From the WSD analysis, the results show that the integration between green bonds and Islamic stocks, the S&P 500 Stock Composite, and the S&P 500 Bond index is weaker during volatile market conditions. The CQ correlation suggests that the dependency between green bonds and other asset returns is concentrated in the lower quantiles and that this dependency is weaker at longer lags. Our results underscore the significance of green bonds in investor portfolios as a new investment asset class.     

Domestic or global imbalances? Rising income risk and the fall in the US current account

When default leads to exclusion from financial markets, the implied loss of consumption smoothing opportunities is more costly when income volatility is high. A rise in income risk thus makes default less attractive, allowing creditors to relax borrowing limits. I show how, in an open economy, this endogenous financial deepening may reduce aggregate foreign assets in response to a rise in individual income risk, against the precautionary savings intuition. Conditions for this depend on whether default constrains complete or uncontingent contracts. The post-1980 rise in US household income risk strongly reduces foreign assets when domestic markets are complete or world interest rates low.     

Financial instruments in non-financial firms: what do we know?

Accounting for financial instruments is one of the most controversial standard setting issues. Attempts by standard setters to expand the scope of fair value measurement provoked fierce opposition from preparers, in particular from the financial industry but also, albeit less frequently and less scathingly, from non-financial firms. Academic research could help to bring the discussion onto a more objective level. Most of the existing research focuses on the financial industry and uses US disclosure data from the 1990s. More recent papers use recognition and measurement data from IFRS financial statements, again primarily from the financial industry. This paper provides novel evidence on the relevance of financial instruments for non-financial firms of the STOXX Europe 600 Index. The results in particular refute the myths that fair value measurement of financial instruments is pervasive and that many fair value measurements are of the problematic ‘level 3’ quality. The empirical evidence forms the background for a survey of the small body of existing research on the effects of accounting standards relating to financial instruments on non-financial firms. This survey covers research on the effects on risk management, on the volatility of cash flows and earnings, on earnings management and on the effects on user decisions. Both in the empirical sections and in the survey sections, I identify a number of areas for further research to overcome the poor current state of knowledge.     

Empirical analysis of corporate tax reforms: What is the null and where did it come from?

Absent theoretical guidance, empiricists have been forced to rely upon numerical comparative statics from constant tax rate models in formulating testable implications of tradeoff theory in the context of natural experiments. We fill the theoretical void by solving in closed-form a dynamic tradeoff theoretic model in which corporate taxes follow a Markov process with exogenous rate changes. We simulate ideal difference-in-differences estimations, finding that constant tax rate models offer poor guidance regarding testable implications. While constant rate models predict large symmetric responses to rate changes, our model with stochastic tax rates predicts small, asymmetric, and often statistically insignificant responses. Even with very long regimes (one decade), under plausible parameterizations, the true underlying theory—that taxes matter—is incorrectly rejected in about half the simulated natural experiments. Moreover, tax response coefficients are actually smaller in simulated economies with larger tax-induced welfare losses.     

Corporate financial policy: What really matters?

Reliable access to funding, as in Myers and Majluf (1984), is what really matters, but there are nontrivial indeterminacies in how such access is arranged and in the debt, cash-balance, and payout components of financial policy. These inferences are from a corporate “twins” comparison study of the financial policies of Henry Ford at Ford Motor Co. and Alfred P. Sloan, Jr. at General Motors Corp. The documented testimony of Ford and Sloan indicates that both focused on funding their business, with debt as a funding tool, not an element of an optimized leverage ratio. Their financial policies differ in five important respects, including (i) the use of debt versus large cash balances to meet funding needs and (ii) a commitment to paying large dividends versus a strong aversion to payouts. The data also point to the importance of the inability of managers to identify optimal policies with reliable precision.     

Auditing private companies: what do we know?

The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of the literature on what we currently know about the costs and benefits of auditing private company accounts. Our main conclusions are the following. First, there is much heterogeneity in factors driving audit demand in private companies and the value derived from the audit. Second, research provides support for improved financial reporting quality due to, and real economic benefits from, private company audits. Third, the cost–benefit analysis for private company audits is firm-specific and mandating the audit does not seem to be cost-effective and thus economically optimal for all private companies. Alternative services may better meet the needs of especially smaller private companies. Furthermore, mandating the audit is not necessarily an optimal solution since private companies with low demand for a high-quality audit are able to find an auditor that meets their requirements even under a mandatory regime. Hence, having a mandatory audit in place is no guarantee for universally high-quality audits and this seems most salient for private companies where auditors may be more prone to independence issues. We conclude by providing a number of directions for future research.     

What can we learn about the market reaction to macroeconomic surprise? Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis

We investigate the impact of macroeconomic surprise and uncertainty on G7 financial markets around COVID-19 pandemic using two real-time, real-activity indexes recently constructed by Scotti (2016). We applies the wavelet analysis to detect the response of the stock markets to the macroeconomic surprise and an uncertainty indexes and then we use NARDL model to examine the asymmetric effect of the news surprise and uncertainty on the equity markets. We conduct our empirical analysis with the daily data from January, 2014 to September, 2020. Our findings indicate that G7 stock markets are sensitive to the macroeconomic surprise and uncertainty and the effect is more pronounced at the long term than the short term. Moreover, we show that the COVID-19 crisis supports the relationship between the macroeconomic indexes and the stock prices. The results are useful for investment decision-making for the investors on the G7 stock indices at different investment horizons.     

What Should the World Bank Think about the Washington Consensus?

The phrase "Washington Consensus" has become a familiar termin development policy circles in recent years, but it is nowused in several different senses, causing a great deal of confusion.In this article the author distinguishes between his originalmeaning as a summary of the lowest common denominator of policyadvice addressed by the Washington-based institutions (includingthe World Bank) and subsequent use of the term to signify neoliberalor market-fundamentalist policies. He argues that the latterpolicies could not be expected to provide an effective frameworkfor combating poverty but that the original advice is stillbroadly valid. The article discusses alternative ways of addressingthe confusion. It argues that any policy manifesto designedto eliminate poverty needs to go beyond the original versionbut concludes by cautioning that no consensus on a wider agendacurrently exists.      

Too big to fail in banking: What does it mean?

Interest in too big to fail (TBTF) resolutions of insolvent large complex financial firms has intensified in recent years. TBTF resolutions protect some in-the-money counterparties of a targeted insolvent firm from losses that they would suffer if the usual bankruptcy resolution regimes used in resolving other firms in the industry were applied. Although special TBTF resolution regimes may reduce the collateral spill-over costs of the failure, the combined direct and indirect costs from such “bailouts” may be large and often financed in part or in total by taxpayers. Thus, TBTF has become a major public policy issue that has not been resolved in part because of disagreements about definitions and thereby the estimates of the benefits and costs. This paper explores these differences and develops a framework for standardizing the definitions and evaluating the desirability of TBTF resolutions more accurately.     

The individual learning account experiment in the UK: A conjunctural crisis?

Individual learning accounts (ILAs) were a flagship policy of the 1997 Labour Government in the UK. ILAs provided a new universal right for all adults to receive State financial support to pursue lifelong learning that was delivered through markets in ways consistent with the prevailing neo-liberal hegemony. The scheme was suspended following allegations of fraud and abandoned after regulators of markets associated with the neo-liberal hegemony published reports. An analysis of these reports is used to highlight how they failed to emphasise the positive and novel universal right of financial support from ILAs, but instead criticised the adoption of light-touch accounting controls and gave these as a reason for fraud being possible and over-expenditure. Subsequently, when a replacement scheme was introduced, the novel principle of universal financial support was abandoned. Gramsci's concept of a conjunctural crisis is used to explain the abandonment of the novel element of ILAs while the neo-liberal hegemony endured.     

What have we learnt about joint working between health and social care?

Joint working between local authorities and the National Health Service (NHS) has been an integral part of health and social care policy in the United Kingdom for many years. Using evidence from two literature reviews this paper argues that there is little indication that joint working delivers the outcomes envisaged in policy. While recent reforms may be beginning to influence improvements, they are undermined by constant reform and professional scepticism.