也谈商务谈判技巧

谈判既是一门科学,又是一门艺术。在市场竞争日益激烈的今天,谈判已经发展成集社会学、语言学、心理学、逻辑学、行为学、传播学、公关关系学等诸多学科为一体的综合性现代科学。对于现代企业的经理人,如果不能在商务活动中把握谈判的技巧和艺术,就不可能做好经理,获得成功。     

How Do Ordinary Japanese Reach Consensus in Group Decision Making?: Identifying and Analyzing “Naïve Negotiation”

The purpose of this study is to investigate ways in which ordinary Japanese people negotiate in a multi-party meeting. We initially gave such a way of negotiation the tentative name of “naïve negotiation”. The analysis of the conversational data reveals three structural features of naïve negotiation: (1) at the utterance level, the participants tend to claim their opinions without providing any overt grounds, (2) at the local consensus-building level, they tend to jump to conclusions without the full examination of proposed hypotheses, (3) at the final consensus-making level, there tends to be disjunctions between discussion units. Although these features are not necessarily seen as irrational or illogical, a naïve-negotiation style can still be a trouble-source in achieving successful consensus-making. This leads us to emphasize the necessity of developing a support system for the discussants.     

从博弈论看商务谈判僵局的本质和处理

商务谈判中的僵局是谈判双方都不愿看到但又不得不面对的难题。只有了解了商务谈判僵局产生的本质才能够更好地处理好谈判中的僵局。从博弈论的角度,对商务谈判僵局的本质进行了分析,指出在挖掘共同利益的过程中既可以寻求到瓜分共同利益的有效途径,又可寻找到共同利益与个体利益实现的最佳结合点。     

Identifying the strategic market

When are markets truly global? Will Europe be a single market after 1992, and how will we know? When are niche strategies sustainable? In this article, John Kay develops answers to these questions by developing the concept of the strategic market–the minimum area, product or geographical, within which it is possible to compete. He identifies the common strategic error involved in confusing the dimensions of the market with those of the industry, and warns that economic integration is not at all the same as the creation of a single market.     

Analyzing the Multiple Dimensions of Negotiation Processes

Negotiation processes involve a substantive, a communication, and an emotional dimension. These dimensions have been analyzed mainly in isolation of each other. We introduce an approach to consider all three dimensions and present an empirical study on the relations between these dimensions. Results indicate a strong linkage between communication behavior and emotions, while connections to the substantive dimension of the negotiation process are weaker.     

论社会主义宏观调控的目标

宏观调控的目标关系到宏观调控体系的完善与宏观调控水平的提高。传统观点认为,四大宏观调控目标为世界各国普遍认同。但中国政府宏观调控目标的历史变迁与内在逻辑深刻表明了中外差异的客观存在。中国社会主义宏观调控的本质是"制度调控"与"政策调控"的有机结合,根本目标是通过总供给与总需求的平衡来不断满足社会主义初级阶段人民群众日益增长的物质文化需要与落后的社会生产之间的基本矛盾,主要应对经济运行中存在的"过冷"、"过热"两类总供求失衡现象,进而实现国民经济"软着陆"。科学发展观在完善宏观调控体系方面的体现之一就是社会发展宏观调控目标的介入。绩效评估指标体系的建立是宏观调控目标从理论走向实践的重要突破口。     

如彗星划过夜空

彗星在夜空的闪亮,代表着一种新智慧的诞生,企业社会责任正是如此,它代表着一种新的世界观和方法论,代表着企业可持续发展的一条不同于以往的全新的路径。近来读书,读到了林达的旧作《如彗星划过夜空》。这本书通过记述发生在1787年美国费城制宪会议前后的一系列故事,梳理美国宪政民主从源头、发展到相对成熟和付诸实践的基本过程,先哲们的智慧,如慧星般照亮了夜空。     

Negotiation support using the Decision Support System GMCR

The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution constitutes a unique and flexible approach to the representation, analysis, and understanding of strategic conflict. This methodology, as implemented in the Decision Support System GMCR, constitutes a useful tool for negotiation support. Because GMCR includes efficient algorithms for calculating the stability of states, it encourages extensive comparisons of the consequences of different models of negotiators' decision making. GMCR also facilitates modifications to the way in which the conflict is represented, encouraging sensitivity and what-if analyses. The applicability of GMCR to negotiations is discussed in general, and in the context of a specific case study in environmental conflict resolution.     

Qualitative One-to-Many Multi-Issue Negotiation: Approximating the QVA

When there is one buyer interested in obtaining a service from one of a set of sellers, multi-attribute or multi-issue auctions can ensure an allocation that is efficient. Even when there is no transferable utility (e.g., money), a recent qualitative version of the Vickrey auction may be used, the QVA, to obtain a Pareto-efficient outcome where the best seller wins. However, auctions generally require that the preferences of at least one party participating in the auction are publicly known, while often making this information public is costly, undesirable, or even impossible. It would therefore be useful to have a method that does not impose such a requirement, but is still able to approximate the outcome of such an auction. The main question addressed here is whether the Pareto-efficient best-seller outcome in multi-issue settings without transferable utility (such as determined by the QVA) can be reasonably approximated by multi-bilateral closed negotiation between a buyer and multiple sellers. In these closed negotiations parties do not reveal their preferences explicitly, but make alternating offers. The main idea is to have multiple rounds of such negotiations. We study three different variants of such a protocol: one that restricts the set of allowed offers for both the buyer and the seller, one where the winning offer is announced after every round, and one where the sellers are only told whether they have won or not after every round. It is shown experimentally that this protocol enables agents that can learn preferences to obtain agreements that approximate the Pareto-efficient best-seller outcome as defined by the auction mechanism. We also show that the strategy that exploits such a learning capability in negotiation is robust against and dominates a Zero Intelligence strategy. It thus follows that the requirement to publicly announce preferences can be removed when negotiating parties are equipped with the proper learning capabilities and negotiate using the proposed multi-round multi-bilateral negotiation protocol.     

Identifying the employee of the future

Hewlett-Packard evaluated its future marketing needs and compared it to the capabilities of current employees. This case study is an example of how other companies can ensure they have the best people to meet their strategic goals.     

Small and Medium Enterprises Across the Globe

This paper analyzes the relationship between the relative size of the small and medium enterprise (SME) Sector and the business environment in 76 countries. The paper first describes a new and unique cross-country database that presents consistent and comparable information on the contribution of the SME sector to total employment in manufacturing and GDP across different countries. We then relate the importance of SMEs and the informal economy to indicators of different dimensions of the business environment. We find that several dimensions of the business environment, such as lower costs of entry and better credit information sharing are associated with a larger size of the SME sector, while higher exit costs are associated with a larger informal economy.      

Negotiation support using the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution

The Graph Model for Conflict Resolution is a flexible methodology for systematically studying strategic conflicts in the real world, and is therefore a natural tool for negotiation support. The basic definitions underlying the graph model are reviewed, and the techniques for analysis and interpretation are discussed. The modeling and analysis of a case study, an international trade negotiation concerning the export of Canadian softwood lumber to the United States, are used to demonstrate the practical application of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution as a negotiation support tool. The modeling and analysis is carried out using the GMCR software system. The ability of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution to provide insights and advice to negotiators is emphasized.     

中国加入WTO《政府采购协议》谈判分析

2007年12月28日,中国正式启动加入WTO《政府采购协议》谈判,意味着中国在WTO框架下开放政府采购市场从承诺阶段进入到实践阶段,这是继加入WTO后,中国在对外经贸领域开展的又一项重大谈判,对经济社会发展将产生广泛和深远的影响。政府采购市场的开放是世界经济一体化的必然趋势,任何国家、政府都不可能回避这一现实。但政府采购领域是国际贸易中较为特殊的领域,它的开放受到多重因素的影响和制约,涉及经济贸易问题,更涉及国家宏观政策的执行乃至社会、政治问题。这些影响因素的分析和研究对于我国政府采购市场开放具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。     

Solving Intra-Company Conflicts Using the RAMONA-Interactive Negotiation Support System

A key issue within manufacturing organizations is how to induce the different departments and/or interest groups to work most effectively for the common good of the company. In almost every company daily conflicts exist between different interests and/or interest groups. For example in a typical manufacturing company, production management and marketing management perspectives can contain different goals with respect to the terms of sales with resultant inefficiencies. This paper describes 1) in detail the RAMONA-program a user-friendly interactive Negotiation Support System, and 2) how RAMONA can support the different interest groups involved in intra-company negotiations for the overall benefit of the firm.     

Loose with the Truth: Predicting Deception in Negotiation

Using a simulated, two-party negotiation, we examined how characteristics of the actor, target, and situation affected deception. To trigger deception, we used an issue that had no value for one of the two parties (indifference issue). We found support for an opportunistic betrayal model of deception: deception increased when the other party was perceived as benevolent, trustworthy, and as having integrity. Negotiators’ goals also affected the use of deception. Individualistic, cooperative, and mixed dyads responded differently to information about the other party’s trustworthiness, benevolence, and integrity when deciding to either misrepresent or leverage their indifference issue. Mixed dyads displayed opportunistic betrayal. Negotiators in all-cooperative and all-individualistic dyads used different information in deciding whether to leverage their indifference issues and used the same information (benevolence) differently in deciding whether to misrepresent the value of their indifference issue. Mara Olekalns is a Professor of Management (Negotiations) at the Melbourne Business School, University of Melbourne. Her research focuses on communication processes in negotiation. In her research, she has investigated how strategy sequences shape negotiation outcomes. She is extending this research to investigate how impressions and communication shape trust in negotiation. Her work on communication processes in negotiation has been published in Journal of Applied Psychology, Human Communication Research, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, and Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. Philip L. Smith is a Professor in the Department of Psychology, University of Melbourne. His primary research interest is in building quantitative models of the human visual system. He also applies his modeling expertise to analyses of communication processes in negotiation, focusing on the relationships between situational and dispositional factors, strategy sequences and negotiation outcomes. It has been published in leading management and psychology journals, including Human Communication Research, Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, and Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. Authors' Note The research reported in this paper was supported by a Discovery Grant from the Australian Research Council. We thank Ania Ratzik and Rudi Crncec for assistance with data coding. Correspondence should be addressed to Mara Olekalns, Melbourne Business School, University of Melbourne, 200 Leicester St, Carlton, Victoria, 3053, Australia or via email to m.olekalns@mbs.edu     

Identifying and Managing the Consumerist Gap

An interrupted service may yield less satisfaction than clients had anticipated when purchasing it. This Consumerist Gap may result in adverse consequences for clients, staff and company. A case study illustrates how passengers experienced a delay to their journey, and a model is developed to trace their changing levels of dissatisfaction during the interruption episode. The paper outlines ways in which management can influence the extent of consumer dissatisfaction while technical procedures are implemented to restore the service.     

资本区际流动的动因与效应分析

资本区际流动的根本动因是逐利和避险,廉价的原材料和生产要素、新的技术以及税收、土地等方面的优惠政策都可以成为资本区际流动的动因,而且资本区际流动还可以降低风险,使资本流出地区和流入地区的资源配置接近帕累托最优的状态。本文运用国际资本流动模型,在新古典经济学理论框架下分析了资本区际流动效应,研究表明在一个国家内的资本区际流动会给流出和流入地区带来净利益,且要比同样规模的资本跨国流动给该国(无论该国是投资的东道国还是母国)增加的净收益多。     

多哈回合谈判：2007年终盘点

<正>2007年末,WTO总干事拉米作为谈判委员会主席对WTO总理事会报告时称,各谈判小组已经在为多哈回合最后阶段的谈判作准备。作为最后阶段谈判依据的新修订草案文本将由农业谈判小组主席Crawford Falconer和工业品贸易谈判主席Don Stephenson共同完成。草案原先有望在2007年11月中旬公布,从而希望能够在2007年年底完成谈判"模式"。但由于在农业问题上需要更多的时间解决一些细节,草案的公布时间推迟到2008年1月底。拉米认为尽管草案有所推迟,但还是令人振奋的,