Canadian Dietary Fat Substitutions, 1955–93, and Coronary Heart Disease Costs

In this paper, we use a prevalence-based, cost-of-illness approach to estimate the impact of change in dietary fat intake on coronary heart disease (CHD) costs in Canada. To this end, we review the clinical studies that have examined the relationship between fatty acid consumption and serum cholesterol levels. We estimate the increase in consumption of less saturated vegetable oils, which displaced some of the animal fats in the Canadian diet between 1955 and 1993, was responsible for an estimated 10.1% reduction in the incidence of CHD in Canada. This implies ex post a $832 million reduction in direct and indirect CHD costs in 1993. To put it another way, if Canadians had retained their 1955 diet in 1993, CHD costs would have been $832 million greater. Since many of these costs are external to marketplace, the magnitude of these numbers suggests a need to include health costs in the economic analysis of policies that affect fatty acid intake.     

Estimating the Potential Benefits of New Health Claims in Canada: The Case of Soluble Fiber and Soy Protein

Growing awareness of the link between diet and health has spurred growth in the functional food sector. Health Canada regulates allowable health claims on food products, and in recent years has approved health claims linking the consumption of soluble fiber from barley (2012) and psyllium (2011) to reduced/lower low‐density lipoprotein (LDL)‐cholesterol levels, a major risk factor for heart disease. A health claim linking consumption of soy protein to reduced risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) is still under consideration. Using a cost‐of‐illness approach, this paper estimates the potential economic benefits of allowing health claims for soluble fiber and soy protein in terms of reductions in the direct and indirect costs of CHD. Parameters for the economic analysis are drawn from a meta‐analysis of scientific studies examining the effect of soluble fiber and soy protein on LDL‐cholesterol levels, as well as other scientific literature. While a barley soluble fiber health claim yields nontrivial benefits in a base case scenario equal to CAD$105 million annually and ranging from $42 million to $238 million in low and high scenarios, the potential benefits of a soy protein health claim appear to be several magnitudes larger at $549 million annually in the base case and ranging from $220 million to $1.25 billion in low/high scenarios. Given the relatively slow regulatory approval process for new health claims, there may be value in using economic estimates of potential gains to help prioritize health claims approval processes.     

Estimating the health care savings from trans fat-free canola in Canada

Growing scientific evidence links consumption of trans fatty acids in the diet to elevated levels of cholesterol and therefore to coronary heart disease. Coronary heart disease is the single largest contributor to health care costs in Canada (both direct medical costs and indirect costs in the form of lost productivity). As with many industrialized nations, rising public health care costs are a major public policy concern in Canada. The major source of trans fats is hydrogenated vegetable oils and processed food products. New canola varieties are emerging which enable the production of canola oils that are virtually trans fat-free. This paper evaluates the potential savings in public health care costs from a trans fat-free canola oil. Using four scenarios and conservative assumptions, the paper estimates non-trivial potential health cost savings in the range of Cdn$280 million to Cdn$1.09 billion annually. A number of policy implications are discussed.     

Pesticides,Preference Heterogeneity and Environmental Taxes

In this paper we present results from two choice experiments (CE), designed to take account of the different negative externalities associated with pesticide use in agricultural production. For cereal production, the most probable impact of pesticide use is a reduction in environmental quality. For fruit and vegetable production, the negative externality is on consumer health. Using latent class models we find evidence of the presence of preference heterogeneity in addition to reasonably high willingness to pay (WTP) estimates for a reduction in the use of pesticides for both environmental quality and consumer health. To place our WTP estimates in a policy context we convert them into an equivalent pesticide tax by type of externality. Our tax estimates suggest that pesticide taxes based on the primary externality resulting from a particular mode of agricultural production are a credible policy option that warrants further consideration.     

基于背包模型的水稻种植负外部性评估方法研究

目的 为改善现有研究对水稻种植负外部性承载效率关注不足的问题,在理论模型、评估方法、检验方式3个层面实现新的边际贡献。方法 文章尝试引入背包模型设计一个解决环境承载效率优势问题的算法框架,结合数学推演的逻辑框架给出3种算法的效率优势排序结果,并基于“双重维度”的检验原理,分别利用已有研究文献中局部地区的实证数据与AHP模型中的评分数据进行检验。结果 单调算法是实现水稻种植负外部性评估与承载的最优处理方法,不规则贪婪算法在处理效率与满意程度方面虽较单调算法存在一定改进空间,但仍较贪婪算法更易实现最优承载。结论 （1）农业部门应提高对水稻种植负外部性评估的认识程度;（2）统计部门应扩展水稻主产区水稻种植的相关数据;（3）政策部门应加强对水稻种植负外部性污染源的预防性宣传;（4）水稻产业不能走低产出的“老路”和先污染后治理的“弯路”,应走负外部性低的生态农业“新路”。     

Price Ceilings on Milk Production Quota Values: Future or Folly?

Since the inception of supply management in Canada during the 1970s, milk production quota has been used to regulate output and participation in the dairy industry. In recent years, milk quota values have increased dramatically, almost tripling in value since the mid 1980s. This led to the Dairy Farmers of Ontario intervening on the milk production quota exchange on two occasions: first, in November 2006 with a progressive transfer assessment and then in July 2009, replacing the former policy with a firm price ceiling—fixing the unit price of quota at $25,000. These policies represent a significant redistribution of economic benefits from milk producers selling their quota to those remaining in the industry. The objective of this study is to first explore the reasons for the increase in production quota values; and second, to assess the welfare and distributional effects of each of the two quota policy schemes. Our results suggest that the increase in quota values were driven by basic economic factors and that the efficiency losses from intervention in the quota exchange are nontrivial. We conclude by suggesting there are several alternative policy options that could minimize efficiency losses while moderating the escalation in quota values. Depuis la mise en place du système de gestion de l’offre au Canada dans les années 1970, les quotas laitiers sont utilisés pour régulariser la production et la participation dans l’industrie laitière. Au cours des dernières années, la valeur des quotas laitiers a fait un bond considérable et a pratiquement triplé depuis le milieu des années 1980. Cette situation a amené la Dairy Farmers of Ontario à intervenir à deux reprises dans le système d’échange de quotas laitiers : en novembre 2006, en imposant l’établissement d’un transfert progressif et en juillet 2009, en remplaçant la politique précédente par l’établissement d’un prix plafond ferme fixéà 25 000 $. Ces politiques permettent une importante redistribution des avantages économiques lorsque des producteurs de lait vendent leurs quotas à des producteurs qui demeurent dans le secteur. La présente étude visait d’abord à examiner les raisons qui sous‐tendent l’augmentation de la valeur des quotas de production et ensuite àévaluer le bien‐être et les effets distributifs de chaque plan de quotas. Les résultats de notre étude autorisent à penser que l’augmentation de la valeur des quotas a été motivée par des facteurs économiques fondamentaux et que les pertes d’efficacité découlant de l’intervention dans les échanges de quotas n’étaient pas sans importance. En conclusion, nous estimons qu’il existe plusieurs politiques de rechange qui pourraient minimiser les pertes d’efficacité tout en modérant l’escalade de la valeur des quotas.     

Optimal Production Tax and Quota under Time Consistent Trade Policies

This article investigates the policy active importers' incentives and welfare implications of using production and trade policies in a dynamic framework where production decisions occur before consumption decisions. We show that the equilibrium for production taxes and quotas are not equivalent, and that each equilibrium depends on whether the trade policy instruments are tariffs or quotas. Under import quotas, the equilibrium policy is to tax domestic production, whereas under a tariff either a production tax or subsidy may be optimal. We also show that a collective agreement to ban production policies is likely to be welfare-improving in many circumstances.     

Marketing reforms,market development and agricultural production in China

Chinese agricultural reforms have consisted of two transitional stages; initially decollectivization in the late 1970s followed by market liberalization in the mid 1980s. While much research has been conducted on the initial stage of increasing the incentives for farmers in collective cultivation, little quantitative evidence exists on how marketing reforms and the development of rural markets has affected agricultural production decisions. Using more accurate and disaggregated measures of the reform and market development components of liberalization than previous research, this study examined the effects of these liberalization policies on the agricultural production decisions in Shaanxi province. Procurement quota levels were found to be positively associated with the area planted to grain crops. Thus, quotas represent an effective way of increasing grain production and thereby also a means of achieving food self sufficiency which remains an important policy objective for the Chinese government. The involvement of state grain stations in free market grain trade and the expansion of rural markets has increased the area planted to the two potential cash crops, soybeans and wheat, and reduced the sown area of the Subsistence crop, corn reflecting the reduced need to plant corn as a self insurance mechanism for smoothing consumption. An increase in procurement quotas increases fertilizer use on grain crops, due to the policy of linking quotas to access to below-market priced fertilizer, but decreases the use of labor, which shifts to other more profitable enterprises. Market development has increased these off-farm employment opportunities and the earnings associated with them, thereby promoting the shift of labor out of crop production and increased the use of fertilizer which has also become more available.     

基于成本内涵的农田防护林生态补偿标准分析

农田防护林生态系统的存在不仅关乎平原地区粮食安全、农民增收问题,更关系社会主义新农村建设及农业生态文明。本研究在阐述农田防护林现状及问题的基础上,运用外部性理论对其进行解释,认为直接成本、机会成本和生态服务功能效益是生态补偿的主要部分,尝试运用外部性理论对生态补偿标准的核算问题进行分析。     

SSP范式下黑龙江省森工林区全面停伐试点政策的影响分析

运用"状态—结构—绩效"(简称SSP)制度分析框架对黑龙江省森工林区全面停伐试点的政策影响展开深入解析,结果表明:全面停伐政策在一定时期内对森工企业和林区职工具有不利影响,林区基本生产生活受到冲击;全面停伐政策具有增加社会改革成本的负的外部性,以及在生态、经济、社会和政治环境方面的正的外部性。总体来说,黑龙江省森工林区实施全面停伐政策试点对林区经济社会可持续发展具有战略意义,整体政策绩效与制度设计初衷保持一致,且全面停伐政策未来的发展方向应该是围绕着确保国有林区经济社会稳定发展,积极开展后续保障体制建设,特别是在改善民生、积极发展林下经济、做好森林经营抚育等方面提供具体的对策设计。     

A Cost‐Based Model of Seasonal Production with Application to Milk Policy

Milk production is seasonal in many European countries. While quantity seasonality poses capacity management problems for dairy processors, an EU policy goal is to reduce price seasonality. After developing a model of endogenous seasonality, we study the effects of three EU policies on production decisions. These are private storage subsidies, production removals, and production quotas. When cost functions are seasonal in a specified way, then arbitrage opportunities interact with storage subsidies to reduce both price and consumption seasonality. But production seasonality is likely to increase because storage subsidies promote temporal market integration. Conditions are identified under which product market interventions increase quantity seasonality.     

EFFICIENT COMPLIANCE WITH AGRICULTURAL NITRATE POLLUTION STANDARDS

Non-point pollutants such as nitrates are difficult to monitor and hence control. This paper considers nitrate abatement policies for the Tyne catchment in northern England. The analysis is based on an aggregate-level LP model which predicts producers' production decisions and estimates the resulting spatial distribution of nitrogen applications and nitrate emissions. The policy evaluation compares a catchment-level nitrate emission quota, a catchment-level nitrogen input quota and nitrogen input quotas targeted at individual land classes as alternative measures to achieve nitrate concentration standards. The results indicate that targeted nitrogen input quotas provide a feasible and relatively efficient abatement policy when a lack of information on individual farms prevents the use of the least cost emission tax.     

The Effects of Educational Externalities on Maize Production in Rural Malawi

The paper looks at the existence, nature and form of intra- and inter-household externalities of education on productivity, efficiency and uncertainty of maize production in rural Malawi. Data from the Third Integrated Household Survey are used. I find statistically and economically significant positive intra- and inter-household externalities from education on all three elements, and that intra-household externality effects are larger than inter-household externality ones. Community-level schooling is found to substitute for household-level schooling in the sense that farmers who reside in households where members are not educated nevertheless have relatively higher production and lower production uncertainty, on account of living in communities where some inhabitants are educated. The paper also finds that the intra- and inter-household externality effects are more pronounced for the least efficient farmers, that they are monotonic and that they are largest when average household schooling is relatively low.     

Agriculture's 'multifunctionality' and the WTO

Are the agricultural policy reforms embodied in the Uruguay Round consistent with meeting domestic policy objectives such as providing adequate food security, environmental protection and viability of rural areas? This article examines the claim that agriculture deserves more price support and import protection than other sectors because of the non‐marketed externalities and public goods it produces jointly with marketable food and fibre (agriculture’s so‐called ‘multifunctionality’). Do these unrewarded positive externalities exceed the negative externalities from farming by more than the net positive externalities produced by other sectors? To what extent are those farmer‐produced spillovers under‐supplied, and what are the most efficient ways to boost their production to the socially optimal levels? The article concludes that there is little trade‐off required to meet domestic policy objectives on the one hand and agricultural protection reform objectives as embodied in WTO rules on the other.     

Asymmetric Information,Externalities and Incentives in Animal Disease Prevention and Control

Incentives influence behaviour while an understanding of farmer behaviour facilitates the control and prevention of infectious livestock disease. This paper lays out several perspectives on how information problems and other externalities affect biosecurity incentives. We use the principal–agent framework to examine livestock disease management in the presence of potential moral hazard and adverse selection. Moral hazard may apply to biosecurity decisions while adverse selection may apply to disease reporting. The example of compensation policies illustrates the importance of creating appropriate incentives: compensation must be sufficient to ensure early reporting but not so large as to discourage appropriate levels of biosecurity effort. Other cases of externalities are more diffuse than those modelled using principal–agent analysis, placing emphasis on third‐party effects and coordination problems. Three examples are provided. One concerns free‐riding when facing an endemic disease pool that can be managed by limiting sources and flows. Another regards coordination failure when securing against an exotic disease where farmer efforts complement and communicating actions are important. The last arises from absence of a risk market where an adverse infrastructural support externality could be managed by disease outbreak insurance.     

Differentiated products and supply controls in the analysis of agricultural policy reform: the case of tobacco

With a multi-market model of the U.S. tobacco and cigarette industries, we analyze the impact of a reduction in the assistance to U.S. tobacco producers by relaxing production quotas with nonbinding price support and by lowering tariffs on tobacco imports. The results show the importance of incorporating differentiated product and supply control assumptions into agricultural policy analysis.     

PLANT PESTICIDE ECONOMICS WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO COTTON INSECTICIDES

The energy crisis and the current world food situation have both drawn attention to the importance of off-farm inputs in high-technology agricultural systems. Plant pesticides are one of the most important of these off-farm inputs. The correct use of chemical pesticides requires a high level of managerial competence since the issues involved are extremely complex. The development of an integrated approach to the management of plant pests offers an alternative to the increasingly expensive chemical control techniques. Cotton production illustrates both the complexities of the management involved in plant pest control and the feasibility of developing integrated control strategies. Plant pesticides, especially insecticides, also create externalities. The policy issues surrounding the use of cotton insecticides demonstrates the need for careful analysis before political action is taken. A feasible package of policy measures for the control of the use of insecticides in Australian cotton-growing areas is suggested.     

平衡膳食模式视角下粮食需求预测

[目的]随着时代的进步和社会经济的发展,对粮食安全内涵的理解也在逐步深化,粮食安全内涵不仅包括数量方面,还包括营养健康安全,保障居民营养健康成为粮食安全的新时代内涵。基于营养目标的粮食需求研究,建立营养—消费—生产的粮食生产模式,对引导居民合理健康消费和保障粮食安全具有十分重要的意义。[方法]文章首先分析了我国城乡居民营养消费状况,然后基于平衡膳食模式视角,引入标准人消费系数这一概念对我国未来粮食需求进行了更准确的预测。[结果]城镇居民粮食消费已达到高营养目标,但目前农村居民仅达到低营养目标水平,相当于21世纪初的城镇消费水平;考虑人口结构因素,2020年和2030年粮食需求总量分别为4.8亿t和5.6亿t,比没有考虑人口结构变化时分别减少8700万t和2 600万t。[结论]根据分析结果,提出以下几点政策建议:(1)宣传普及营养健康消费知识,引导居民合理膳食;(2)关注人口结构变动,及时调整粮食安全调控机制;(3)优化食品工业的产业机构升级,提高饲料粮转化率。     

An empirical assessment of food security on First Nations in Canada

Using data generated from surveys conducted on First Nations throughout Canada, we use regression analysis to examine factors influencing food insecurity. To our knowledge, this is the first time a regression-based analysis has been conducted to examine food insecurity on First Nations in Canada. As expected, income is inversely related to the likelihood that one reports their household as experiencing food insecurity. In addition, individuals in extremely remote areas are more likely to report their household as experiencing food insecurity. Although traditional food consumption is prevalent, we do not find evidence that it is associated with reductions in the prevalence of self-reported household food insecurity. We find that gender and mental health are associated with perceived household food insecurity. Although this study is novel, for reasons and limitations detailed in the paper, it should be viewed as an initial effort to establish potential relationships that underscore one of the most important issues facing Canada: the high prevalence of food insecurity in First Nations communities.     

THE VALUE OF FARM ANIMAL WELFARE

This paper explores further some of the ideas put forward by McInerney (1993) in his economic perspective of animal welfare. It uses a simple economic framework to consider citizens' concerns and perceptions about farm animal welfare and the production and consumption of livestock products in society. People's perceptions that certain aspects of livestock production give rise to poor farm animal welfare are a potential source of disutility for them. This disutility may be associated with people's own consumption of livestock products and/or with other people's consumption. The latter is a negative externality of consumption in society, resulting in very real indirect costs associated with livestock production. The paper discusses the need for valuing farm animal welfare, considers techniques for evaluation and highlights some of the policy issues involved.