Migration in late working age and early retirement

The publication of population forecasts for small areas has highlighted the primitive basis for their migration components, while a recent growth of interest in the migration of elderly people has revealed pronounced differentials by age, sex and marital status. The paper presents a detailed examination of these differentials from United States and British census sources. It shows that improved forecasts of the volume of internal migration are produced by combining age specific participation rates with population forecasts for single or quinquennial years of age. Different series, based on different elderly cohorts, diverge in their forecasts by as much as 20%. Illustrative forecasts are presented and some implications for migration theory are discussed.     

A simultaneous-equations analysis of urban development: migration and industrial growth in Israel's new towns

A simultaneous-equations econometric model is used to analyze the recent development of new towns in Israel. The focus is on the relationships among migration, industrial investment, employment, and other structural and policy variables affecting urban development. "Our results affirm the importance of economic opportunity, agglomeration effects, population socioeconomic and ethnic composition, and access in determining migration flows. At the same time, unemployment and investment indices are affected by local labor-market conditions, government incentives, and regional development effects as well as by population composition and migration flows. Policy implications of the analysis are considered."     

Determinants of the Choice of Migration Destination*

This paper examines migrants’ choice of destination conditional on migration. The study uses data from two rounds of Nepal Living Standard Surveys and a Population Census and examine how the choice of a migration destination is influenced by various covariates, including income differentials across possible destinations. We find that migrants move primarily to nearby, high population density areas where many people share their language and ethnic background. Better access to amenities is significant as well. Differentials in average income across destination districts are significant in univariate comparisons but not once we control for other covariates. Differentials in consumption expenditures are statistically significant but smaller in magnitude than other determinants. It is differentials in absolute, not relative, consumption between destination districts that are correlated with the destination of work migrants. Except for the latter, results are robust to different specifications and datasets.     

Does migration arbitrage regional labor market differentials?

"This paper examines the determinants of regional migration [in the United States] in the 1980s using a place-to-place migration model in which migration flows depend upon the relative economic opportunities in the origin and destination regions. Using the results of the model, we then examine the potential role for migration in diffusing the economic pressures associated with disparate regional economic growth. Although the results reinforce the notion that divergent regional growth was an impetus to migration in the 1980s, estimates of the employment status of movers suggest that the true effects of migration on unemployment differentials may be quite small."     

Entrepreneurship and market size. The case of young college graduates in Italy

We analyse empirically the effects of urbanization on Italian college graduates' work possibilities as entrepreneurs three years after graduation. We find that doubling the province of work's population density reduces the chances of being an entrepreneur by 2–3 percentage points. This result holds after controlling for regional fixed effects and is robust to instrumenting urbanization. Provinces' competition, urban amenities and dis-amenities, cost of labour, earning differentials between employees and self-employed workers, unemployment rates and value added per capita account for more than half of the negative urbanization penalty. Our result cannot be entirely explained by the presence of negative differentials in returns to entrepreneurship between the most and the least densely populated areas. In fact, as long as they succeed in entering the most densely populated markets, young entrepreneurs are able to reap-off the benefits of urbanization externalities: the elasticity of entrepreneurs' net monthly earnings with respect to population density is 0.02–0.03.     

保障性住房能促进流动人口城市融入吗?

基于原国家卫生计生委2014流动人口动态监测数据,本文探讨了保障性住房对流动人口城市融入的影响效应。结果显示:保障性住房与流动人口城市融入显著正相关,其估计系数要高于社会租房,但略低于自购住房,而采用"定居意愿"替换结果变量后的结论仍稳健;保障性住房对流动人口的经济融入、社会融入、文化融入具有显著正效应,但对心理融入的正效应并不显著;Oaxaca-Blinder分解表明,城-城和乡-城流动人口融入差异主要是由其经济社会特征差异引起的,但户籍制度及其形成的制度约束等不可解释因素仍有较大影响,而住房是城-城和乡-城流动人口的城市融入差异形成的重要因素。     

The relative size of exchange rate and interest rate responses to news: An empirical investigation

This paper examines the relative size of the effects of macroeconomic news on the spot exchange rate, and interest rate differentials (2- and 5-year swap rate differentials), and the synthetic forward exchange rate schedule, for the high-frequency New Zealand data. We find that the spot exchange rate and 5-year swap rates respond by a similar magnitude to monetary surprises, implying there is little response of the forward exchange rate to this type of news. In contrast, the spot exchange rate responds by nearly three times as much as 5-year interest rates to CPI and GDP surprises, implying that forward rates appreciate to higher than expected CPI or GDP news. This is in contrast to standard theoretical models and US evidence. Lastly, we show that exchange rates but not interest rates respond to current account news. The implications of these results for monetary policy are considered.     

LOCAL PAY DETERMINATION

Abstract. Theoretical models of local pay are reviewed, ranging from neoclassical perspectives, unemployment/wage trade-off models, and segmented labour market approaches. The empirical work on U.S. North-South differentials is discussed. For the U.K., studies of the extent of and trends in geographical pay differentials are considered, as well as behavioural explanations focusing on the role of excess demand. The issue of adjustment processes is then discussed, both in theory and in relation to empirical work for the U.S. and U.K. This discussion focuses largely on geographical spillover effects, in terms of origins, evidence, and issues of identification. Finally, the impact of certain impediments in the adjustment process are considered, specifically in relation to the U.K. These concern the role and influence of national wage bargaining, as well as factors inhibiting labour migration, stemming from the housing market and the climate of the national labour market.     

The efficiency of interprovincial migration in Canada, 1961-1978

A programming model is used to analyze the impact of the efficiency of migration flows on regional income disparities in Canada. A new method to measure such efficiency is presented in an attempt to show that occupations involving high-level skills and training have efficient migration patterns. The relationship between income differentials and internal migration is discussed.     

Estimating regional construction cost differences: Theory and evidence

The economic theory of cost functions is employed to derive geographic cost differentials for construction projects located across the United States. Assuming a Cobb-Douglas production technology, cost function estimates are obtained and used to calculate the regional cost differentials for major US cities relative to Washington, DC. Explanations are provided for adjusting these regional cost differentials according to additional information available on input prices or expected future inflation rates specific to particular locations.     

MIGRATION THEORIES AND EVIDENCE: AN ASSESSMENT

Abstract. This paper presents a critical survey of theories of migration, their welfare and policy implications and their empirical relevance. We also develop some extensions to the theory beginning with the Harris and Todaro (HT) model. In particular, the HT model is extended to examine risk averse behaviour within families where the migration of members of families serves to diversify risk. The welfare implications of the individual migration decision and government intervention in the form of employment subsidies are examined. Recent evidence on international migration is presented. It is shown that migration does not flow automatically in response to wage differentials. Characteristics of migrants and the process of self-selection are found to be important determinants of the rate of migration.     

A discretionary model of industrial buying

This paper demons!rules that product differentials exert an important influence on the demand for industrial inputs. It presents a utiliu-maximizing model of industrial buying which integrates the empirical findings of marketing scholars with orthodox economic theory. The model receives statistical support in the form of partial correlations of industrial sourcing determinants and a factor-analytical extraction of hypothetical constructs corresponding to features which in the model influence sourcing decisions.     

基于流动人口特征的首都人口疏解与管控

流动人口的迁移行为是多种因素共同作用的结果,关于人口迁移的政策制定应建立在对流动人口特征及变化趋势的深入了解基础之上。在京流动人口以劳动年龄人口为主,对于增加劳动力供给和缓解老龄化压力做出了显著的贡献。多数流动人口在京居住依赖租房,房租是导致其生活成本日益上升的重要因素;流动人口的社会融入程度较低,尤其城乡接合部地区社会隔离现象较为显著,大量流动人口未能有效融入现代城市的生产生活体系。首都的人口管控与城市治理是一个系统工程,既要通过“控”“收”联动,加强人口的有序流动,也要疏解与引导相结合,使流动人口的结构与行为更符合首都发展的需要。     

Regional growth and interstate migration

The current study examines a simultaneous equation model of interstate migration using income growth, employment growth, unemployment growth, population growth, gross migration, and employment in manufacturing as endogenous variables. The results show that neither the growth of employment nor the growth of income in the destination location has been directly important determinants of migration flow. However, an indirect effect through the population variable can be discerned for these variables, and this has important policy implications. A key feature of this migration model is that it incorporates most of the determinant factors as rates of change over time. The study sheds light on the joint and indirect effects of migration and other endogenous variables and draws some important policy implications pertaining to growth.     

The persistence of economic profit

Recently, as practitioners and researchers from developed countries have increasingly probed the activities of emerging economies, what exactly drives the long-term economic profitability of firms in China has become the most salient issue in the above fields. However, a study dedicated to the persistence analysis of profitability differentials among firms in China has not yet been proposed. This study thus employs China’s business database to examine the persistence in the incremental components of the industry and firm effects on economic profitability and tests the hypotheses that conform to the conventional wisdom of relative rates of persistence. A persistence partitioning model is fitted to a new data set, and the results show that the incremental effects of industry on economic profitability persist longer than the incremental effects of the firm. In other words, the long-term competitive advantages of firms in China are more predictable and sustainable based on industry influences compared to firm factors. These findings support the predictions of industrial organization economics, and provide some implications for corporate strategy.     

Cross-national tests of a third world development-migration paradigm: With particular attention to Venezuela

This paper amplifies a conceptual framework relating internal migration and development processes. This is first done by a cross-national comparison of regression parameters from interregional migration studies often different countries. Attention then turns to parallel analyses of interstate migration in Venezuela for three different time periods representing, approximately, 1940–1950, 1950–1960, and 1966–1971. These cross-national and temporal comparisons support the hypothesis that development systematically affects the role of distance separating origins and destinations, and of spatial differentials in urbanization levels, wages, unemployment, and education.     

江苏省人口老龄化影响产业结构优化的动力机制——基于积极老龄化视角

论文从积极老龄化视角分析人口老龄化对区域产业结构优化的影响,分别从劳动力供给、消费需求变化、居民储蓄等方面研究人口老龄化对产业结构优化影响中的抑制或推动作用。研究结果显示:积极老龄化视角下,人口老龄化在人才培养、产业结构匹配、产业集聚等方面能够促进产业结构优化。     

Spatial dynamics and metropolitan change

"This special issue presents contributions to a collaborative effort to analyze 'the dynamics of metropolitan processes and policies'....[It] contains four papers which focus on industrial change and economic restructuring; two papers deal with population relocation and migration processes; one paper contains a study of economic cycles in space and one paper treats the assessment of urban investment and urban renewal projects." The geographic focus is on the developed countries.     

Uncovering uncovered interest parity during the classical gold standard era, 1888–1905

This paper examines the uncovered interest parity hypothesis using the dollar-sterling exchange rate during the gold standard era. This period is interesting because the exchange rate was seasonal, because transactions costs were high, and because occasions when uncovered interest rate speculation did not occur can be identified. The paper shows UIP speculation frequently did not occur, that speculation was most active in response to expected exchange rate changes not interest differentials when it did occur, and that profitability varied systematically with interest rate differentials. The estimated UIP equations are substantially improved by distinguishing occasions when sterling was borrowed not lent.     

An exploratory study of the impact of tax freedom on geographic living-cost differentials

In the United States, there exist enormous geographic differentials in the cost of living. A sound, basic understanding of factors that influence such geographic living-cost differentials is important to help formulate useful policies to address various contemporary economic and social problems such as public-school funding across counties. In this exploratory study of the effects of tax freedom on geographic living-cost differentials, the following hypothesis is investigated using panel data for the period 2009 through 2020. The higher the average overall freedom from taxation in a state in the forms of personal income taxation, property taxation, and sales taxation, the lower the overall cost of living in the state. In this exploratory study, strong empirical support is obtained for this heretofore effectively overlooked hypothesis.