我国入境旅游预测:基于ARFIMA模型的研究

旅游需求预测是旅游规划、开发与管理的基础和前提。将分整自回归移动平均模型(ARFI-MA)应用在旅游需求预测中,采用我国月度入境旅游人数建立ARFIMA模型,并依据RMSE,MAE和MAPE三个标准,将ARFIMA与AR IMA,SAR IMA模型的预测精度进行比较。结果表明ARFIMA模型的精度最高,在旅游需求预测中有较强的实用性。     

Modeling and forecasting tourism demand: the case of flows from Mainland China to Taiwan

The study of tourism demand is attracting more and more attention. Hence, it is important to understand the variables that affect tourism demand and to forecast the demand. Many studies have been conducted to analyze the demands in various countries. Recently, China has been expected to become one of the largest originators of outbound tourists in the world. Hence, it is interesting to explore what the variables are that affect the Mainland Chinese arrivals to Taiwan and to forecast its corresponding tourism demand. This study applies neural networks to select proper models, and then to forecast the demand.     

The International Tourism Market in Eastern Europe

Estimates presented of the size of the international tourism markets of the European CMEA countries, the USSR and Yugoslavia show that only Yugoslavia is an established centre for tourist development. Data on tourist arrivals and tourist receipts are presented. International tourist receipts account for approximately two per cent of National Product in Yugoslavia and Hungary and are much smaller in the other economies as far as can be ascertained. The major constraints on further tourist developments in CMEA countries are political and economic planning constraints, the cost of development of tourist amenities and the low priority assigned to tourism. Short-term increases can be brought about by improved marketing and promotion of the considerable attractions of Eastern European countries as tourist destinations.     

Trade in tourism services: Explaining tourism trade and the impact of the general agreement on trade in services on the gains from trade

The article addresses two questions related with tourism as a service trade. Can tourism be explained as other export activities? Does service liberalisation have a positive or negative impact on tourism receipts in destination countries? Previous research has either focused on the demand side factors (i.e. factors of demand in the origin countries) or on tourism as a long-run factor of economic growth. The research shows that a complementary perspective such as that offered by trade in a supply side perspective can render additional insights towards understanding tourism. This approach can explain why countries have absolute and comparative advantage. Another finding is that tourism as an export can be explained by some of the same destination factors that explain other service exports. Using different panel estimators the importance of supply side factors that are to some extent exclusive to tourism are demonstrated: the general price competitiveness of the destination, tourism infrastructure and the provision of safety. The econometric models also confirm the relevance of other conventional explanatory factors of trade in services such as GDP per capita and internet usage. The last part of the article analyses the welfare gains from trade under the general agreement on trade in services (GATS). The revenue (tourism receipt) effect is decomposed into a volume (arrival) and price effect. Results suggest that liberalisers under the GATS gained especially from a volume effect with average higher growth rates in the number of arrivals. There is also found to be a positive effect on the average income earned per tourist from being a liberaliser.     

台湾开放大陆赴台旅游的经济影响度研究

2008年7月,台湾开放大陆13省居民赴台旅游,以期由旅游业带动台湾的低迷经济走出低谷。基于旅游乘数模型和旅游人数模型,本文以2008年前后台湾旅游业分析为背景,定量研究开放大陆居民赴台旅游对台湾经济的贡献度,及影响大陆居民赴台旅游需求的影响因素,认为开放大陆赴台旅游对台湾经济发展具有很强的拉动作用,两岸政策的开放性对赴台旅游人数影响巨大。     

Movements of People for Movements of Goods?

Whilst it is well established to think of international tourism as a type of exports, namely ‘home’ exports, the potential of tourism flows as an engine for fostering trade among countries is a poorly studied topic. In this paper, we show that this relationship can be studied at a very detailed level by exploiting the disaggregation of existing information on international trade and inbound tourism. We consider a sample of 25 countries belonging to the European Union, a region that has been interested by common shocks such as the establishment of the euro as the new currency for many countries and the liberalisation in the air transport market. We carry out a panel data analysis by means of which we assess whether international tourist arrivals by a given country activate additional exports towards the same country. We find not only that tourism can promote exports, but also that this effect displays important differences depending on whether or not consumption goods are considered. This finding is consistent with the idea that the experience of tourists in a given destination reduces the fixed costs of trade, thus facilitating access to the advantages of international trade for more peripheral economies.     

New directions in Mediterranean tourism: Restructuring and cooperative marketing in the era of globalization

At a time when tourism is the preeminent global industry, the Mediterranean is one of the most important tourist regions in the world, accounting for approximately a third of total tourism revenues and half of international arrivals. Because the traditional sun, sand, and sea tourist product of the Mediterranean is experiencing a crisis with subsequent market shifts toward other regions and alternative tourist products, the region has begun to lose its share of the international travel market. The time is ripe for the 21 Mediterranean countries to evaluate their tourist industries in the context of sustainable development strategies, begin to consider restructuring their industries to increase efficiency and competitiveness, and form strategic alliances for cooperative marketing efforts in order to maintain a competitive edge in the global tourist market at the threshold of the third millennium. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons. Inc.     

基于行为分析的南宁市越南旅游市场拓展研究

自2007年以来,越南已经成为广西第一大入境游客客源地,越南旅游市场已经成为广西入境旅游的重要组成部分。南宁作为广西的首府,是越南游客重要的中转站和目的地。越南游客的旅游消费行为特征将对南宁市开发越南旅游市场具有十分重要的意义。本文通过对南宁市越南游客的市场调研,在分析越南游客的行为特征基础上,提出了南宁市进一步拓展越南旅游市场的对策。     

关于大冬会旅游客源市场的研究

2009年第24届世界大学生冬季运动会在哈尔滨举办,为哈尔滨旅游业的发展提供了难得的机遇。为了做好大冬会的旅游接待工作,必须对大冬会旅游客源市场进行深入的分析与预测,总结其中的规律性,以期为哈尔滨的旅游管理部门与旅游企业提供一定的指导与借鉴。     

安徽省道路旅游客运车辆需求量预测分析

本文分别采用指数函数曲线预测模型、灰色简单预测模型和多元线性回归的一般模型预测安徽旅游人数,依据三种方法预测结果的加权平均数,预测了安徽道路旅游客运车辆需求量,为道路旅游客运体系的建立,能够提供科学的决策依据。     

Measurement of Tourism Market Potential of Croatia by Use of Delphi Qualitative Research Technique

Abstract

The Delphi survey as an effective qualitative marketing research tool was designed to project the future Croatian tourism scenario from 2001 through the year 2020. It is predicted that Croatian tourism industry will grow and prosper substantially over the next decade due to increased tourist demand for non-traditional holiday destinations. There will also be a high demand for activity-based tourism and eco-tourism. Although the tourism demand projections predict positive trends in the coming term, it is subject to a host of uncontrollable factors which make long-term projections difficult and cumbersome. In view of the developments and changes, tourism industry operators and public sector planners need scientifically accepted projection bases for tourism investment and effective operational tourism decisions. In this vein, this research qualitatively forecasts the tourism market potential and identifies the most significant future trends in Croatian tourism and hospitality.     

基于新市场环境影响的我国旅游供应链重构研究

旅游产品的复杂性与服务主体的多元化要求构建旅游供应链,从而实现主体之间的协作以更好地满足旅游者需求。文章在对旅游供应链文献进行梳理的基础上认为,旅游供应链的构建与旅游产业发展环境密切相关。当前我国旅游业面临着大众旅游、信息技术、环境承载力、旅游目的地等新的市场环境变化,市场环境影响到旅游供应链的结构与核心企业的确立。基于旅游目的地在旅游活动与公共服务两个方面的影响力,确立旅游目的地为旅游供应链的核心企业。设计基于旅游目的地的旅游供应链的结构模型与功能模型,期望通过旅游供应链的重构与实践促进我国旅游产业的可持续发展。     

Long-Term Forecasts for Tourism Industries: the Case of Austria and Switzerland

This paper outlines the design of a causal econometric model for world tourism. The model allows for long-term forecasts of outgoing and incoming tourism for each country considered (here with a special emphasis on Austria and Switzerland) in a consistent international model setting. The main forecast result in the baseline scenario is that Austria gains market share in the long run, Switzerland loses significant market share. The growing tourism import demand resulting from the completion of the international European Community (EC)- market is widely allocated to the EC-member countries and the overseas destinations in the form of additional export growth. The non-EC member Austria loses market share. Switzerland would have even greater market share losses compared to the baseline scenario.     

旅游发展对城市工业化的影响及其差异性研究——以58个旅游城市为例

文章构建了旅游业发展影响工业化的理论模型，并利用2000—2016年中国58个旅游城市面板数据和动态面板模型，从总体、专业化、规模和区域等多维度，分析检验了旅游业发展对城市工业化的影响及差异性。结果表明：无论是宏观层面，还是三种分类检验，旅游业发展对城市工业化都具有负向效应。当前，中国旅游城市存在一定的“旅游诅咒”效应，阻滞了其工业化深化；分专业化研究可知，旅游业发展对工业化的负向作用，由大到小依次为旅游高专业化、低专业化和半专业化城市；分规模研究发现，中型旅游城市的最显著，小型旅游城市次之，而大型旅游城市最不显著；分区域研究表明，中西部旅游城市的较突出，而东部旅游城市统计上并不显著。这为各个旅游城市采取有效措施及时防范和规避“旅游诅咒”效应和正确处理“旅游业+工业化”关系提供了参考依据。     

The future of standardised quality management in tourism: evidence from the Spanish tourist sector

As quality management has become more important in the tourist sector, the implementation of standardised quality management systems has become more common in this industry. A forerunner in this development has been the Spanish tourist sector, in which 17 specific quality management standards have been developed over several years in various tourist sub-sectors, including hotels, rural accommodation, restaurants, spas, and travel agencies. The present study, which is exploratory in nature, analyses the diffusion of these standards using a model that has been well attested in the specialised literature, together with a qualitative analysis of three practical cases. The study concludes that the standardisation of quality management in tourism will increase in coming years. The worldwide diffusion of ISO 9001 and ISO 14001 in many service sectors and the findings of the present study with respect to the increasing implementation of the Spanish standards provide an indication of what is likely to happen in the service sector as a whole in most countries.     

Joint In-Season and Out-of-Season Promotion Demand Forecasting in a Retail Environment

Inaccurate forecasts of demand during promotions diminish the already meager profit margins of retailers. No forecasting method described in the literature can accurately account for the combination of seasonal sales variations and promotion-induced sales peaks over forecasting horizons of several weeks or months. We address this research gap by developing a forecasting method for seasonal, frequently promoted products that generates accurate predictions, can handle a large number of sales series, and requires minimal training data. In our method's first stage, we forecast the seasonal sales cycle by fitting a harmonic regression model to a decomposed training set, which excludes promotional and holiday sales, and then extrapolate that model to a testing set. In the second stage, we integrate the resulting seasonal forecast into a multiplicative demand function that accounts for consumer stockpiling and captures promotional and holiday sales uplifts. The final model is then fitted using ridge regression. We use sales data from a grocery retailing chain to compare the forecasting accuracy of our method with popular seasonal and promotion demand forecasting models at multiple aggregation levels for both short and long forecasting horizons. The significantly more accurate forecasts generated by our model attest to the merit of the approach developed here.     

黑龙江生态旅游消费流行与目标市场情报资源研究

生态旅游迎合消费者崇尚自然的意愿,是国际市场上颇为流行的一种时尚需求。分析黑龙江旅游资源的区域组合和消费流行情报源构成及生态旅游需求产品与目标市场营销,探索黑龙江省生态旅游消费流行和相关情报源及影响因素,对东北老工业基地旅游市场营销具有重要的意义。     

奥运会的旅游效应分析--以悉尼奥运会及雅典奥运会为例

奥运会作为一项大型节事，会对举办地的旅游业产生重大影响。论文比较了悉尼奥运会及雅典奥运会对澳大利亚和希腊的旅游业的长期与短期效应。由于受到多方面因素的影响，悉尼奥运与雅典奥运带给所在国家的短期旅游效应有很大的不同之处。而在长期奥运旅游效应方面．这两届奥运会则有许多相同之处。     

“90后”高校大学生旅游市场开发研究

我国目前大多数高校大学生正处于全"90后"时期,这个时代的大学生创业意识强、旅游动机强,大学生旅游市场数量庞大。存在的问题是目前大学生旅游消费难以吸引旅行企业的关注和重视,很多旅游企业并没有开展针对大学生旅游市场的营销活动。各地应发挥政府和社会各界的力量改善市场环境,支持并鼓励大学生旅游消费;旅游企业应合理实际的制定大学生旅游产品价格,激发其潜在的旅游需求,宣传推广"创业型"的大学生旅游市场,从而更好地开发大学生旅游市场。     

基于多因素分析的区域物流需求径向基函数网络预测

对区域物流需求量进行合理、精确地预测,能为政府部门科学制定物流规划、合理配置物流资源提供决策支持和依据。在对影响区域物流需求的多种因素进行全面分析以及物流需求量指标合理选取的基础上,采用径向基函数神经网络构建区域物流需求量的非线性预测模型,并以四川省相关统计数据为基础,对区域物流需求量进行了预测,取得了满意的预测结果。研究表明:该预测模型较全面地反映了区域物流需求量的变化规律,预测精度较高,泛化能力强,预测结果具有较高的可信性。