The Causes and Consequences of Sectoral Reallocation: Evidence from the Early 21st Century

A number of industries underwent large and permanent reductions in employment growth at the beginning of this decade. We investigate the sources of these permanent changes in employment growth and what the consequences were for the U.S. economy. In particular, we find that relative declines in demand rather than technological innovations were the key drivers of the elevated levels of job destruction and permanent layoffs in the affected industries. In addition, most workers that were displaced in downsizing industries relocated to other sectors. While this process of reallocation led to large increases in productivity (and a reduction in labor's share of aggregate income) in industries shedding workers, it also resulted in prolonged periods of unemployment for many displaced workers, along with sizable reductions in earnings that were consistent with substantial losses in their specific human capital. Putting these pieces together, we estimate the costs to those adversely affected by these events to have been 1/2 percent to 1 percent of aggregate income per year.     

Productivity and trade openness in Ecuador's manufacturing industries

This study takes an empirical look at whether Ecuador's trade liberalization in the 1990s increased or decreased the productivity of Ecuadorian manufacturing establishments for the period 1997-2003. This research applies robust estimation procedures on micro-level data, controlling for a number of other economic events that may have affected productivity during the period under study. The study takes a particular look at how both exporters and import-competing sectors respond to trade openness. The results suggest evidence of a positive and significant effect of trade openness on the productivity of manufacturing industries in export-oriented industries in the years after the implementation of trade reforms, but decreasing productivity after 2000. Increased aggregate productivity might be a result of both the most productive establishments producing output, and slightly increased own-plant's productivity.     

Cultural and recreational industries in the United States

This article focuses on cultural and recreational industries in the United States. Cultural industries are defined as arts, entertainment, and recreation, as well as components of education, the information sector, wholesaling and retailing, manufacturing (for example, musical instruments), and accommodation and food services. Consumption patterns of cultural industries are shown to have changed significantly over the past 40 years in the United States. This change has been associated in part with changing information technologies, and in part by changes in policies permitting new types of recreation, especially gambling. The study documents the changing level of employment in these industries by state, using data for both employers and proprietors. Some sectors are highly concentrated spatially, while others are distributed widely.     

How Do the Trans‐Pacific Economies Affect the USA? An Industrial Sector Approach

This paper studies how the Trans‐Pacific region affects the US economy in terms of business cycle transmission. We use a large data set consisting of disaggregated sectoral industrial production indexes from selected countries in the region and employ a factor‐augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach to analyse the transmission of shocks in different industries. We find that a positive output shock in the entire Trans‐Pacific region has positive effects on the majority of US manufacturing sectors. We also find that sectoral shocks in five sectors of the Trans‐Pacific region have a large impact on the overall US economy. Three of the five sectors displayed strong same‐sector responses relative to the overall response, suggesting that vertical production linkages might play a key role in the transmission of shocks. Our results highlight the importance of examining industrial sectors in studying the transmission of shocks in the Trans‐Pacific region.     

Services policy reform and manufacturing employment: Evidence from transition economies

Policy reforms targeting the services sectors are a neglected dimension of the process of structural transformation and economic development. The effects of such reforms on employment across industries as a function of their use of services as intermediate inputs are theoretically ambiguous and remain largely understudied. This paper uses sector‐level data for 24 transition economies for the 1990–2012 period to assess the impacts of services policy reforms on downstream manufacturing employment. We find a negative effect of services reforms on manufacturing sector employment. This is mostly associated with the process of transition to a market‐based economy. Controlling for transition‐specific dynamics, the data suggest a neutral effect of progress towards adopting “best practice” policies for upstream services on employment in downstream manufacturing. Furthermore, in line with the extant literature, we confirm that services policy reforms enhance productivity of downstream manufacturing industries. Finally, we find that the negative effects on downstream employment are mitigated in countries with better economic governance and human capital.     

Has the Byrd Amendment Affected US Imports?

The Continued Dumping and Subsidy Offset Act (CDSOA), also known as the Byrd Amendment, allows the US government to distribute revenues from antidumping duties to domestic firms alleging harm. Prior to the amendment these revenues were not distributed to firms. In this article, we formally test the hypothesis that the Byrd Amendment effectively provides double protection to US firms to the extent that it further restricts US imports, as argued by the EU and 11 other US trading partners. Using a rich panel of 362 US manufacturing industries for the period 1998 to 2003, we find that whether or not the Byrd Amendment restricted US imports depends crucially on the level of competitiveness in the import‐competing industry. Specifically, we find that the Byrd Amendment served to restrict imports only in industries where competition is relatively weak, while the amendment is associated with an increase in imports in more competitive industries.     

India and the Global Economy

India’s booming knowledge-based sectors demonstrate the power of globalization to transform developing economies. For India, however, these industries are just part of its contribution to the global economy. For a more nuanced picture of India’s international economic position, this paper places India in international and historical context, examines its links to the world through trade, labor, and capital, and outlines some critical challenges facing the country. What emerges is a more complex picture of India -- a nation with far more to offer than skilled programmers but which must address problems of poverty, infrastructure, and governance to achieve its potential. JEL Classification O530     

Measuring the Magnitude of Significant Market Power in the Manufacturing and Services Industries: A Cross Country Approach

This paper provides estimates of price-marginal cost ratios for manufacturing and services sectors in the Eurozone, the US and Japan over the period 1970–2007. The estimates are obtained applying τhe methodology developed by Hall (J Pol Econ 96:921-947 1988) and extended by Roeger (J Pol Econ 103:316-331 1995) on the EU KLEMS March 2011 database. The empirical findings show that sectors that are more open to internationalisation such as textiles, experience relatively the lowest mark up ratios, while policy makers should enhance their policy in fragmented industries in which profitability indicators of market players indicate evidence of imperfect competition. The major stylized facts that are emerged from the empirical results based on the Ordinary Least Squares, Two Step Least Squares and Bootstrap methods of estimation are a) there is no evidence of imperfect competition across the majority of industries in Eurozone, US and Japan, b) sectors that are more open to internationalisation, experience relatively lower mark up ratios than the ratios experienced in less open sectors to internationalisation and c) deregulated industries generally have lower mark – up ratios than regulated industries, while fragmented industries generally exhibit higher mark – up ratios than segmented ones.     

International spillovers of knowledge and sectoral productivity growth: some evidence for Canada and the United States

This paper develops and tests a two-country model of a monopolistically competitive industry in which the production function shifts endogenously via national and international spillovers of knowledge. The basic version of this model implies that, in the long run, the growth rate of sectoral productivity is the same in each country. In support of this version, for a number of matched Canadian and US manufacturing industries, the paper finds that these two countries' rates of sectoral productivity growth tend to converge despite marked international differences in R and D.     

On the origins of comparative advantage

This paper proposes a simple theory of international trade with endogenous productivity differences across countries. The core of our analysis lies in the determinants of the division of labor. We consider a world economy comprising two large countries, with a continuum of goods and one factor of production, labor. Each good is characterized by its complexity, defined as the number of tasks that must be performed to produce one unit. There are increasing returns to scale in the performance of each task, which creates gains from specialization, and uncertainty in the enforcement of each contract, which create transaction costs. The trade-off between these two forces pins down the size of productive teams across sectors in each country. Under free trade, the country where teams are larger specializes in the more complex goods. In our model, it is the country where the product of institutional quality and human per worker capital is larger. Hence, better institutions and more educated workers are complementary sources of comparative advantage in the more complex industries.     

The European Commission’s New Industrial Policy in an Integrating and Globalizing World

The European Commission has launched a new industrial policy for Europe in October 2005. While manufacturing industry remains a key building block of the European economy, it faces a number of challenges—as well as opportunities—in the form of rapid technological change; increasing trade and financial integration of the world economy; and the rise of new emerging market competitors. Whilst some sectors are performing strongly, the overall industrial structure of the EU economy makes it less than ideally positioned to face these challenges. The new industrial policy articulated by the Commission is to help the European economy adapt to the new circumstances. In contrast to old policies that sought to ‘pick winners’, the new approach starts from the screening of horizontal policies and framework conditions in terms of their implications for specific industrial sectors. Second, the Commission has integrated policy by bringing more closely together different policy dimensions of key relevance to various industries. Finally, the industrial policy attempts to achieve a greater consensus over policy, through the involvement at an early stage of key stakeholders and Member States in policy making.     

Competitive pressure,innovation and trade protection: Evidence from US patent data

Recent theoretical models have suggested that the relationship between competition and innovation may best be characterised as an inverted‐U shape: firms in industries with low levels of competition are more likely to innovate in the wake of increased competition as they attempt to escape competition, while those in highly competitive industries will decrease innovation in the wake of increased competition as the profit incentive to innovate dissipates. Results from other studies have found positive as well as negative relationships between innovation and competition. In a parallel literature, trade economists have produced conflicting results regarding the impact of trade liberalisation on innovation. One stream of research has shown that increased access to imported intermediate goods increases productivity, suggesting a positive relationship between imports and innovation. Others have hypothesised that firms may use the technology embodied in intermediate inputs as a substitute for domestic innovation. In this paper, we merge these divergent literatures and investigate whether innovation, as measured by the production of patents by US manufacturers, has been impacted by market competition and tariff reductions. Our empirical findings indicate that insulation from imports in the form of higher tariffs on final goods was associated with innovation until the late 1980s, while falling tariffs on intermediate goods appear to have facilitated innovation during the 1990s. We also find evidence of the inverted U‐shaped relationship between market competition and innovation.     

Economy and “New Economy” in the United States and Germany

The expression “New Economy” is used inconsistently. This article reviews the driving forces of the US boom of the 1990s, examining the changes introduced in the period and before, focusing on the IT sector and new technologies. The “New Economy” is not just the new sectors, but changes in the overall economy emanating from them. These changes will not evaporate in an economic slowdown. Comparisons of the USA with Germany and Europe illustrate that the “New Economy” will also continue to develop there on the foundations already laid.     

Trade effects of the Europe agreements: A theory-based gravity approach

We analyze normalized productivity differences for 15 developing Latin American countries and four firm types: National Domestic, National Exporter, Foreign Domestic, and Foreign Exporter. There are no productivity thresholds for viability, export activity, or multinational activity, but we do find a clear size productivity premium and development productivity premium in the manufacturing sectors. We also find a clear foreign-ownership productivity premium, both for domestic firms and for exporting firms and both for manufacturing sectors and services sectors. In contrast, we only find an export productivity premium for national firms in the manufacturing sectors.     

Technological structure of trade and BOP-constrained growth in Turkey

This study investigates the empirical validity of the Multisectoral Thirwall's Law for Turkey over the last half century. Multisectoral Thirwall's Law facilitates the discussion of the effects of the sectoral composition of trade on the extent of the balance of payments (BOP) constraint and consequently on the long run growth prospects of an economy. In particular, structural change favoring sectors with Schumpeterian and Keynesian efficiencies is expected to improve these prospects. Lall's commodity classification on a technology basis is adequate for delineating such sectors. In this study, distinct export and import functions are estimated for primary production, low technology manufacturing, medium technology manufacturing and high technology manufacturing industries using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test and Johansen approaches to cointegration. Resulting income elasticities are used to discuss the structural change in the technological content of Turkish trade and the validity of the Multisectoral Thirwall's Law. Results suggest that Turkey has come a long way in terms of improvements in Schumpeterian and Keynesian efficiency over the last 50 years and that the Multisectoral Thirwall's Law is empirically valid in the case of Turkey.     

The factor content of Chinese trade

This article demonstrates that the growth of China's exports in recent years is consistent with the Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek (HOV) prediction of the factor content of trade based on international differences in factor endowments, after adjusting for substantial differences in factor-specific productivity. A comparison of the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development input–output data in the year 2000 shows that China's labor productivity relative to the United States is the lowest in a sample of 33 diverse countries, although China's capital is more productive than US capital. This in turn demonstrates the importance of a factor-specific rather than factor-neutral productivity adjustment common in much of the HOV literature. The use of value-added data to measure factor usage helps to correct for unobserved differences in factor qualities and differences in productivity across sectors, as is demonstrated for China. China's low average labor productivity reflects the structure of the Chinese economy where most employment is still in the inefficient agriculture and service sectors, with only 11% of employment in the more modern export-oriented manufacturing sector. Due to a trade surplus, China exports both labor and capital but Leamer's (The Journal of Political Economy 1980;88: 495–503) test for trade-revealed factor abundance confirms that China is labor abundant even after substantial factor-specific productivity adjustments.     

生产性服务贸易自由化与制造业生产率提升：基于跨国数据的分析

生产性服务贸易自由化作为当前的一种主要的对外开放的形式,对国家制造业发展的影响还没有统一的理论和实证研究。文章通过构建理论模型研究生产性服务贸易自由化对制造业生产率影响假设,利用2008-2012年中的69个国家的跨国面板数据来对假设进行检验。通过理论和实证分析发现：生产性服务贸易的自由化可以促进国内制造业生产率的提升,但是提升的作用在不同的国家收入水平和生产性服务业部门间体现出差异性。从国家的收入水平差异来看,生产性服务贸易自由化对高收入国家的影响要大于低收入国家。对于不同生产性服务业部门的自由化影响来看,显著地影响制造业生产率的是金融和商务服务生产性服务业,运输和电信生产性服务业的影响较小且不显著。     

Richtungswechsel in den USA — Folgen der neuen Präsidentschaft für die Wirtschaft

Under US President Donald Trump, it can be expected that large tax cuts will be passed and public expenditure will be slightly limited. He correctly identified US deindustrialisation as one of the economy’s core problems. His proposed policy platforms, however, are unpredictable and most likely harmful for the US and world economy. Even more importantly, the new government repeatedly clashes with national and multilateral institutions and thereby challenges the heart of democratically based capitalism. At present, it is still open if Donald Trump’s Executive Orders on trade measures will be backed by the US Congress. In any case, the new US administration is obviously abandoning the general principle of free trade. But the announced changes in US trade and exchange rate policies are less of a fundamental break than is often argued, because cooperation in international economic policy has always been limited and unstable. Beyond trade policy, it seems to be the intention of the new US government to fundamentally change the course of the country with regard to the financial markets. With regard to its monetary policy, the administration’s current position is marked by its inherent inconsistency. However, the new government has several channels through which to influence and fundamentally change the working of the Fed in order to make it more obedient to its goals.     

Trade, wages, and the political economy of trade protection: evidence from the Colombian trade reforms

Worker industry affiliation plays a crucial role in how trade policy affects wages in many trade models. Yet, most research has focused on how trade policy affects wages by altering the economy-wide returns to a specific worker characteristic (i.e., skill or education) rather than through worker industry affiliation. This paper exploits drastic trade liberalizations in Colombia in the 1980s and 1990s to investigate the relationship between protection and industry wage premiums. We relate wage premiums to trade policy in an empirical framework that accounts for the political economy of trade protection. Accounting for time-invariant political economy factors is critical. When we do not control for unobserved time-invariant industry characteristics, we find that workers in protected sectors earn less than workers with similar observable characteristics in unprotected sectors. Allowing for industry fixed effects reverses the result: trade protection increases relative wages. This positive relationship persists when we instrument for tariff changes. Our results are in line with short- and medium-run models of trade where labor is immobile across sectors or, alternatively, with the existence of industry rents that are reduced by trade liberalization. In the context of the current debate on the rising income inequality in developing countries, our findings point to a source of disparity beyond the well-documented rise in the economy-wide skill premium: because tariff reductions were proportionately larger in sectors employing a high fraction of less-skilled workers, the decrease in the wage premiums in these sectors affected such workers disproportionately.