结构调整、劳动力流动与地区工资差异

从1999年到2007年间,中国东部和中西部地区之间的工资收入增长出现了明显的收敛趋势,其中的重要影响因素是什么?本文通过构建比较优势理论和新经济地理学的分析框架,分析了劳动力流动和中西部地区的工业化在中国特有条件下的作用机制。不断放松管制的劳动力流动鼓励了劳动力要素的迁移,促进了劳动力要素价格均等化的发展,中西部地区大力发展第二产业和第三产业又进一步提高了劳动力要素的报酬。假如这一局面继续维持,它将推动沿海和内地的工资收入增长的均衡发展。     

Wage Effects of Labour Migration with International Capital Mobility

Wage effects of immigration are investigated in a setting with international capital mobility, which eliminates two‐thirds of the native wage effects of immigration. Without international capital mobility, overall gains from migration in the immigration region are only a small fraction of total losses to native workers, but with perfect international capital adjustment, overall gains are larger than total losses to native workers. Two alternative tax policies to eliminate the negative wage effects of immigration on low‐skilled native workers are evaluated.     

中国城市的职业流动:水平与差异

社会学家传统上使用流动表考察职业流动状况.运用人口学方法提出一种新的职业流动水平的测量指标,即总和流动率.利用2003年全国综合社会调查数据,通过总和流动率的计算,近40年来我国城市的职业流动率出现了大幅度增长.按照2002年的职业流动率水平,我国城市地区人们一生将从事三份工作或职业.同时,职业流动率的社会经济差异非常明显,较高的职业流动率发生在男性、未婚、少数民族、初中受教育程度、党员和流动人口群体中.对职业流动率测量作了新探索,提出的总和流动率概念简洁、计算方便,并具有标准化指标性质,故有一定的学术和应用价值.     

The Consequences of Globalisation: India's Software Industry and Cross‐border Labour Mobility1

The Indian software industry is a prime example of globalisation. The industry has been characterised by large cross‐border mobility of its skilled labour force. Using a unique survey of Indian software firms, our paper quantifies the extent and impact of mobility on firm behaviour and performance. Cross‐border labour mobility in the paper refers to both temporary and permanent labour flows by Indian software professionals. The picture that emerges is of a highly mobile world in which temporary mobility has been an important characteristic of the industry. A significant number of workers have work experience abroad in a developed country. Moreover, the share of skilled workers with such experience has been positively associated with the incidence of skilled migration from the firm. This suggests network effects are at work. In terms of the impact on performance – as measured by the change in turnover per worker and the change in the employment size of the firm – the paper finds little evidence of a robust adverse effect. Further, the evidence suggests that there have been important external effects at work, as through changes in the willingness of workers to acquire skills, as well as through increased provision of educational services. These have further abated the risk of a brain drain. However, the software industry may be rather different from other industries. Our results need to be interpreted as the outcome of a particular case of skilled migration and not one necessarily representative of all types of skilled migration and source sectors.     

广东省在业人口职业结构时空变迁及人口流动过程中的职业流动

近 2 0年来广东省职业结构发生巨大变化 ,但是各地的变化程度相差甚远 ,一些地区没有发生实际的改变。广东省内部的人口流动对各地职业结构改变有明显影响 ,绝大多数出自农村的流动人口通过迁移改变了职业 ,外出人口众多的地区是职业结构没有明显改变的区域。对于人口空间流动与职业流动结合的模式有两个问题要关注 ,一是流出地区的发展 ,二是回流人口的重新选择职业问题。     

广东省在业人口职业结构时空变迁及人口流动过程中的职业流动

近20年来广东省职业结构发生巨大变化,但是各地的变化程度相差甚远,一些地区没有发生实际的改变.广东省内部的人口流动对各地职业结构改变有明显影响,绝大多数出自农村的流动人口通过迁移改变了职业,外出人口众多的地区是职业结构没有明显改变的区域.对于人口空间流动与职业流动结合的模式有两个问题要关注,一是流出地区的发展,二是回流人口的重新选择职业问题.     

Labour market institutions,learning and self-employment

We develop a dynamic partial-equilibrium model to analyse how labour market institutions (wage compression, minimum wages, unemployment benefits, mobility costs and fixed-costs of self-employment) and learning affect who and when people become self-employed. We find that certain ability groups of workers become self-employed for both “carrot” and “stick” reasons: Some prefer self-employment to the low institutionalised wage, while others are not productive enough to qualify for a job at the institutionalised wage. Furthermore, wage compression and learning may give rise to a class of switchers who start in wage employment and later switch to self-employment. Several predictions of the model are consistent with observed empirical regularities, such as the existence of a group of low-skilled self-employed workers, the increasing propensity for self-employment over age groups and the larger spread in earnings among self-employed.     

Uncertainty,Flexible Labour Relations and R&D

This paper examines the effects of uncertainty and flexible labour contracts on the Research and Development (R&D) intensity. Using a panel of Italian manufacturing firms, we find a hump‐shaped relationship between workforce flexibility and R&D intensity. Moreover, as predicted by the real options theory, our results suggest that product market uncertainty reduces R&D efforts and that flexible labour contracts countervail the adverse effect of uncertainty on R&D.     

Trade,Technical Change,and Labour Market Adjustment

This paper empirically examines three possible reasons for the high and rising unemployment of low‐skilled employees in Germany: (i) an upsurge in inter‐industry trade, (ii) a skill‐biased technical change, and (iii) a failure of labour market adjustment. The empirical analyses indicate that an exogenous wage‐setting process as well as a bundle of factors, including a skill‐biased technical and structural change, have contributed to the decline in relative demand for low‐skilled employees in Germany. Thus, economic policy in Germany should focus on improving the employability of workers in the lower segment of the labour market and on raising the adjustment flexibility, above all the flexibility of the wage structure, of the German labour market.     

Retail Characteristics and Ownership Structure

The choice of vertical relationships between an upstream manufacturer and a set of heterogeneous downstream retailers/entrepreneurs is examined using a principal-agent framework. Standard principal-agent theory predicts that as unobservable effort exerted by the retailer/entrepreneur becomes more important to the manufacturer, contracts between the manufacturer and agent will entail strong incentives and less direct control. The observability of effort is linked to retail characteristics in the gasoline industry, and station-level data on retail characteristics and ownership structure from every gasoline station in the Los Angeles retail gasoline market from 1992–1996 confirm the model's predictions.     

Exchange Rates,Employment and Labour Market Rigidity

In this paper, we study the effect of labour market rigidity on the impact of exchange rate shocks on employment. We use a panel dataset comprising 22 manufacturing sectors across 23 OECD countries. In our econometric model, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on sectoral employment is mediated by the degree of openness and by a measure of labour market rigidity: the OECD's employment protection legislation (EPL) index. Our results suggest that greater labour market rigidity reduces the impact of exchange rate shocks on employment. This effect is statistically significant for low‐technology sectors.     

Globalisation,Women's Economic Rights and Forced Labour

Globalisation critics are concerned that increased trade openness and foreign direct investment exacerbate existing economic disadvantages of women and foster conditions for forced labour. Defenders of globalisation argue instead that as countries become more open and competition intensifies, discrimination against any group, including women, becomes more difficult to sustain and is therefore likely to recede. The same is argued with respect to forced labour. This article puts these competing claims to an empirical test. We find that countries that are more open to trade provide better economic rights to women and have a lower incidence of forced labour. This effect holds in a global sample as well as in a developing country sub‐sample and holds also when potential feedback effects are controlled via instrumental variable regression. The extent of an economy's ‘penetration’ by foreign direct investment by and large has no statistically significant impact. Globalisation might weaken the general bargaining position of labour such that outcome‐related labour standards might suffer. However, being more open toward trade is likely to promote rather than hinder the realisation of two labour rights considered as core or fundamental by the International Labour Organisation, namely the elimination of economic discrimination and of forced labour.     

Labour unions,globalization and deregulation in Thailand

This contribution traces the evolution of work systems and labour-management relationships in Thailand, with emphasis on the nature and role of unions in the Thai economy. We focus on issues that have emerged as a consequence of globalization and privatization (currently the most significant form of deregulation in Thailand). Labour unions are quite weak in Thailand, even in comparison to other rapidly developing countries in the region. Furthermore, unions have been weakened further in recent years as the consequence of government action, prompted both by globalization pressures and extensive privatization of state enterprises. The emergence of a democratic political system in Thailand has not served to reverse this trend. Indeed, a reversal of this trend does not seem likely in the foreseeable future.     

环太平洋经济圈国际分工的新特点及中国的对策

当前国际产业链和产品价值链分工的深入和细化,推动水平型分工和垂直型分工向新的纵深方向发展,并为中国在全球范围内享受资源最佳配置提供机遇和挑战.我们必须认清形势,充分发挥中国在环太平洋经济圈中的重要作用,制定正确的应对方略和措施,在与跨国公司的竞争与合作中,不断发展和壮大自己的经济实力,在国际经贸往来中掌握主动权和制胜权.     

Inequality,Mobility, Real Earnings,and Real Anger

Understanding the anger among the electorate right now requires an examination of the relevant economic trends. Inequality has increased and real wage growth has been limited for the median worker, as the relationship between productivity and wages has broken down. Measures of wealth inequality have outstripped those for incomes. Higher levels of inequality are correlated with less upward mobility over the life span, have potential costly macro-growth impacts, and contribute to “sticky” poverty rates which hurt child outcomes. Even in recent decades, though, periods of full employment have seen advances in real earnings. Thus, to reconnect growth and more broadly shared prosperity we need full employment, better-targeted manufacturing policy, a strengthened safety net, a higher minimum wage, access to quality preschool, and reduced mobility barriers.     

分工、经济服务化与区域轮动战略研究

20世纪70年代以来,发达国家经济服务化历程主要是以产品价值链为基础的国际分工与专业化演进的扩展与深化。在知识性要素禀赋方面,由于发展中国家与发达国家存在巨大差距,中国在经济服务化方面面临着两难境况。但是,中国经济具有地区差异、多元结构以及适应性等特征,可以采取区域协同、渐次轮动的战略思路,根据各类生产要素的地区差异及其动态演化,以国内区际分工与专业化深化过程复制发达国家的经济服务化历程,循序渐进地实现中国经济的服务化转型。     

Employment Flexibility,Dual Labour Markets,Growth, and Distribution

Many policymakers and economists have argued in favour of greater labour market flexibility as a part of structural adjustment reforms that are expected to improve economic performance. Existing post‐Keynesian‐Kaleckian (PKK) models are unable to address these issues because they assume away long‐term labour by allowing employment to be short term and adjusting freely with output. This paper introduces long‐term labour into PKK models. We develop a model that provides alternative ways of modelling labour market flexibility and suggest that when aggregate demand issues are important, an increase in employment flexibility is likely to have adverse growth and distributional impacts.     

Real Exchange Rate Targeting,Macroeconomic Performance and Sectoral Income Distribution in Developing Countries

This paper uses a two-sector general equilibrium model to analyse both steady-state and stochastic dynamic effects of two real exchange rate targeting policies: a constant-target, and a band-target rule. In the model, targeting is implemented by imposing a stochastic fully-rebatable tax on the consumption of non-traded goods. The first result is that when comparing only steady states, a real exchange rate appreciation favours labour and capital in the non-traded sector, while factors in the traded sector are favoured by depreciations. A second result is that both rules reduce the volatility of investment and the trade balance. The third key result is that in the stochastic economy sectoral income distribution outcomes depend on the design of the constant and band-target rules. In particular, a variety of outcomes may be generated depending on the magnitude of the constant target, or the amplitude of the band, relative to the volatility of productivity shocks.     

收入差距、劳动力流动与粮食生产

由收入差距引起的农村劳动力向城市和非农业转移在一定程度上对粮食生产产生负面影响.根据1990-2010年间省级面板数据估计结果,以2004年为分界点,2004年之前的收入差距对粮食增长具有显著的负面作用.根据经济发展程度和粮食安全状况将全国各省分为四类区域,欠发达地区粮食增产与地区经济差距的关系最明显.应重视缩小区域差距,加大对欠发达地区的投资,在当地创造就业机会,吸引农村劳动力回流,以促进当地农业生产.