服务业能承担转移我国农村剩余劳动力的重任吗

服务业就业比重的提高难用一个统一的理论基础来解释.发达国家服务业就业结构的变迁表明,服务业就业比重的提高实质上是以商务服务业为主的生产者服务业和以教育、医疗卫生业为主的社会服务业就业比重的提高.从目前来看,短期内我国服务业难以承担大规模转移农村剩余劳动力的任务.但通过发展劳动密集型制造业转移农村剩余劳动力不仅是可行的,也是必要的.     

户籍制度背景下我国残疾人就业影响因素分析

就业是残疾人融入社会和实现自身价值的有效途径。基于某地区2017年全国残疾人基本服务状况与需求信息动态更新调查数据,构建Logit回归模型,针对不同的户籍制度,考察残疾程度、教育程度与无障碍设施对残疾人就业选择的影响。研究发现,教育对就业有显著正相关关系,而残疾人就业与残疾程度,无障碍设施呈负相关。与以往研究不同的是,对样本按户籍制度进行分组后,发现无障碍设施,即社会对于残疾人群体的真实关怀程度对农业户口残疾人就业呈显著负相关。由此提出政府对残疾群体在支持公共配套无障碍设施与鼓励残疾人就业之间应寻找新的平衡点,同时也反映出我国对于残疾人保障的力度。     

Modeling the employment–oil price nexus: A non-linear cointegration analysis for the U.S. market

ABSTRACT

Theoretically, fluctuations in oil prices are expected to affect production costs and may force businesses to delay their investment decisions, triggering pressures on employment. Following these theoretical notions, this paper investigates the asymmetric impact of oil prices on employment (measured as total employment, male employment, and female employment), in a nonlinear cointegration structure for the U.S. market. In doing so, this paper adopts the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model to shed light on such asymmetric association, as the NARDL model recently emerged as a new direction in examining nonlinear cointegration and asymmetry. The empirical findings document a long-run asymmetric effect in case of total employment and male employment only. Furthermore, the short-run asymmetric effect was detected for all three employment categories. As a final point, the Granger Causality test documents a unidirectional causality running from oil price decrease to both total employment and male employment.     

Effects of foreign investment in the presence of unemployment

In this paper we present a simple model of unemployment in the presence of foreign investment in the traded sector. More foreign investment increases employment in the nontraded sector but may or may not increase employment in the traded sector. The effect on total employment is also ambiguous. In a two-country framework with foreign investment itself a variable, we show that foreign investment should most likely be subsidized rather than taxed. Moreover, the employment maximizing tax on foreign investment is shown to be less than the optimum tax.     

市场化改革后国有企业创造就业机会的途径研究

本文通过计算1999-2004年国有企业的综合就业系数和就业扩张比。证明国有企业的减员增效和战略性调整，虽降低了国有企业直接创造就业机会的能力，但间接创造就业机会的能力增强了，总的效果是国有企业创造就业机会的能力不降反升。因此在现代市场经济条件下，国有企业创造就业机会的途径，由原来的仅仅通过增加本企业的就业，转变为通过投入产出联系带动相关产业中其他企业的就业。这样。国有企业就可以通过不增加冗员的方式，承担创造就业机会的社会职能。     

Having your cake and eating it too? A two-stage model of the impact of employment and parallel job search on hybrid nascent entrepreneurship

Hybrid entrepreneurship, simultaneous employment and entrepreneurship, is increasingly prevalent. We theorize entrepreneurial entry as one possible outcome of a two-stage new employment search process 1) decision to search for a job, attempt a start-up, or both and 2) outcome of start-up attempts. Stage 2 is critically different for hybrid (employed) nascent entrepreneurs who have greater access to resources and experience lower risk but also more salient alternative employment options. Using a novel longitudinal panel of new employment opportunity seekers, we find that employment status matters and that “parallel search” for a new job is detrimental to successful entrepreneurial entry.     

Were Small Producers the Engines of Growth in the Canadian Manufacturing Sector in the 1980s?

Small firms are often seen to be the engines of growth. There are two main sources of empirical evidence that are adduced to support this conclusion. The first is that job creation has been coming mainly from small firms. The second is that the share of employment accounted for by small firms has increased in the past two decades. Both of these sources rely on a simple metric-employment. This paper asks whether changes in this metric affect the view of the role that small firms play in the growth process.The first section of the paper maintains employment as the measure that is used to evaluate the importance of small firms but modifies the raw measure of employment to correct for the fact that small firms pay lower wages than large firms. When this is done, small producers are no longer found to outperform large producers in terms of job creation over the 1970s and 1980s in the Canadian manufacturing sector.The second section of the paper changes the metric used to evaluate relative performance by moving from employment to output and labour productivity. The paper demonstrates that while small producers have increased their employment share dramatically, they have barely changed their output share. Small firms have been falling behind large firms both with respect to wages paid and labour productivity.     

西方国家劳动力市场灵活化改革的理论分析

灵活化目前已成为西方国家劳动力市场改革的主要发展趋势。西方国家希望通过放弃凯恩斯主义的劳动就业宏观需求管理政策、减少政府和工会对劳动力市场的管制与干预,以及实行激活性劳动就业政策等措施来降低劳动力市场的刚性,提高就业率。从理论上来讲,劳动力市场灵活化改革的根源在于:凯恩斯主义就业政策的失灵、刚性劳动力市场的低效率和全球化时代生产方式与就业模式的根本性变革。同时,劳动力市场的灵活化也被认为是降低失业率的一条有效途径,也是政府、资本和工会之间新的力量平衡下的一种选择。     

产业结构演变与就业结构协调发展分析

本文认为,产业结构与就业结构具有密切的相关性,产业结构与就业结构演变之间的协调关系即和谐问题对整个国民经济的长足健康发展具有非常重要的影响。研究发现,我国产业结构与就业结构演变之间存在不协调、不合理的地方,就业结构演变明显滞后于产业结构,大量劳动力滞留在农村,严重阻碍了我国经济的健康顺利发展。因此,必须促进产业结构升级和就业结构转变的良性循环,在考虑扩大就业与产业发展问题时,注意二者之间的相互依赖性,产业政策调整要充分考虑其对就业结构和就业总量的影响。加快第二、第三产业的发展,扩大整个国民经济对劳动力的需求。     

Analyzing the Link Between Real GDP and Employment: An Industry Sector Approach

This paper offers insight into the “jobless recovery” phenomenon recently experienced in the U.S. economy by examining industry-sector employment responsiveness to the long-term real GDP expansion occurring during 1991- 2001. Two employment models are specified—one using real GDP as the only explanatory variable and the other using real GDP, five additional macroeconomic performance variables, and a time trend as explanatory variables. Monthly data for April 1991–March 2001, and OLSQ regressions are used to derive industry-sector elasticities of employment with respect to real GDP. Empirical results highlight the importance of controlling for non-real GDP macro variables when determining relationships between employment and real GDP. The results identify five industries exhibiting “jobless recovery” characteristics (having negative employment elasticities) and a broad range of employment elasticities across industry categories. The findings may be helpful to business economists modeling their own industry employment and suggest that even during extended periods of real GDP expansion, there may be a case for using industry-specific labor market transition initiatives to assist employment growth. JEL Classification C82,R31     

How Large are the Direct Employment Effects of New Businesses? An Empirical Investigation for West Germany

We analyze the development of employment in start-up cohorts, which is the direct gross employment effect of the new businesses. The data is for West Germany and covers the 1984–2002 period. While total employment in the cohorts remains above the initial level in manufacturing, we find a pronounced decline of employment below this level in the service sector. Only a small fraction of the firms create a considerable amount of jobs. The contribution that the start-up cohorts of the 1984–2002 period made to total employment in 2002 is nearly three times as high in services as in manufacturing.      

失地农民中特殊群体非正规就业问题实证研究——以成都市郊两镇为例

通过对成都市郊弥牟镇和大弯镇的特殊群体——大龄、文化程度低失地农民非正规就业选择问题的实证案例及其理论分析,揭示了非正规就业是大龄、文化程度低失地农民人力资本合理的再配置形式;城市政府现行相关政策导向和制度安排导致非正规就业制度成本上升,无助于这一群体生计的可持续性。城市政府应积极看待非正规就业的正面功能,以新的制度安排促进非正规就业市场的健康发展,从而为社会弱势群体创造实现可持续生计的公平机会。     

资本、技术、工资投入要素对就业效应的实证分析

近年来,我国经济在飞速增长的同时面临着失业量上升的巨大压力,尤其在国际金融危机的影响下,我国的就业形势日益严峻。影响就业量的因素很多,既有宏观因素和微观因素,也有可量化的因素和不可量化的因素。资本、技术、工资、劳动力均是决定产出的投入要素,充分就业是宏观经济目标之一,研究相关投入要素对于就业量的影响具有现实意义。本文运用1995~2010年的数据,分析资本、技术、工资三个投入要素对就业量的影响,并建立长短期模型,寻求影响我国就业效应的深层次原因。     

对东北三省政府创新就业公共服务体系问题的思考

东北三省自2009年以来,围绕稳定就业、促进就业,密集出台了一系列相关扶持政策,虽然取得了显出成效,但并未达到理想效果。东北三省大学生就业率均低于全国大学生平均就业率水平。农民工就业量上升幅度有限。按照十八大报告提出"实施就业优先战略和更加积极的就业政策,推动实现更高质量的就业"的要求,东北三省应该在已经具有的基础之上,继续以就业公共服务体系为突破口,进一步创新政策,重点解决好就业公共服务的财政支持体系弱化、"二元"就业服务制度扩大了城乡差距、对就业公共服务机构缺乏有效的监管机制、就业公共服务技术手段落后等问题,从而促进东北经济更好更快发展。     

广东省就业结构变动趋势分析

本文认为,加入WTO后,广东省从就业的产业结构来看,劳动力正加速从第一产业向第二、第三产业转移;从就业的行业结构来看,劳动越来越密集化,经济和就业结构不断向劳动密集型行业转变;就业机会的增加主要集中在纺织、服装、食品、皮革制品与建筑建材等劳动密集型行业。文章提出,加快广东省就业结构转换的对策,一是加快经济增长,继续实施有利于促进就业的经济政策;二是提高城市化水平,扩大就业容量;三是调整产业结构,加快发展第三产业;四是建立城乡统一的劳动力市场,加快农村剩余劳动力转移。     

Sitting on the fence - Untangling the role of uncertainty in entrepreneurship and paid employment for hybrid entry

Prior research agrees that uncertainty in entrepreneurship shapes individuals' decision between hybrid and full-time entry, but largely neglects the role of uncertainty in paid employment. By theorizing that hybrid entrepreneurship is a portfolio of real options in entrepreneurship and paid employment, we argue that both uncertainty in entrepreneurship and paid employment as well as their interplay determine individuals' decisions regarding their mode of entry into entrepreneurship. We validate our theory using data from the Current Population Survey and the Study of Income and Program Participation and contribute to the hybrid entrepreneurship literature and research on uncertainty in entrepreneurship.     

Structure of the labour force

Labour force structure can be regarded as an important factor in analysing employment and unemployment problems in a developing economy. Specially in a country where data on the employment situation are very limited, characteristics regarding the structure of the labour force contribute a great deal to the understanding of employment problems.     

政府就业补贴、劳动保护政策的就业促进效应——基于沪深A股上市企业数据的分析

就业是民生之本,关乎人民生活福祉和社会稳定。为了让企业吸纳更多就业,政府对企业进行了大量补贴。基于沪深A股上市企业数据,本文聚焦政府就业补贴、劳动保护政策与就业这个主题进行探讨。研究表明,政府补贴有助于推动企业吸纳更多就业,劳动保护能够协同政府补贴促进就业,政府补贴通过“政治许诺效应”和“融资效应”影响就业,地方人力资本积累强化了政府补贴对就业的正向影响;与资本密集型企业相比,劳动密集型企业的政府补贴强化就业的效应更明显;政府补贴增加了企业产生冗余雇员的可能性,冗余雇员在政府补贴对企业生产率的负向影响中发挥了部分中介作用。     

汇率波动对机电行业就业影响的分析

本文利用2001-2010年我国机电行业的203家上市公司的面板数据以及2000-2010年我国机电行业各子行业的季度数据,分别从微观层面和行业层面实证研究汇率变动对我国机电行业就业的影响。研究发现,人民币实际有效汇率波动对机电行业就业的负面影响的短期效应明显低于长期效应,且具有明显滞后性,表明更富弹性的汇率制度有利于缓解汇率波动对就业的影响。同时机电企业规模经济的发展、产品附加值的提升对就业有显著支撑作用,因此在人民币汇率日益走高的背景下,机电行业更应加速行业资源整合和产业升级。     

浅析我国就业形势分析与对策

随着就业结构、就业环境和就业制度的改革,就业形势越来越复杂,并导致失业人数呈攀升趋势,就业、再就业问题凸显出来。应大力调整就业结构,缓解就业压力,营造良好的创业环境,提升就业弹性,完善城乡统一的劳动力市场,以防止就业环境恶化。