Forecasting our environmental future

This series now comes to an appropriate end with the most menacing set of question marks ever raised about the future of the human race. During the past two decades—from the inauguration of the Club of Rome in 1967 to Margaret Thatcher's famous ‘green’ speech to the Royal Society in 1988—an ever growing volume of research has erased the old-time notion that we live out our lives in a steady-state world. As the bad news has spread—environmental pollution, acid rain, the warming of the oceans—a consensus of anxieties has found expression in a global fear for the future. Is there anyone who would gainsay the possibility that, as Mrs Thatcher put it, ‘with all these enormous changes—population, agriculture, use of fossil fuels—concentrated into such a short period of time, we have unwittingly begun a massive experiment with the system of the planet itself’? The scale of these changes and the measure of the dangers they bring—these provide the range of cause and effect in Dr Woodell's reflections on the great harm we have done to the human environment. This is the one occasion when an editor can truly say: Read on for the survival of our species.     

American anticipations : Is the future what it used to be? American views, 1945–1985

This article is the last in the present series. It ends most appropriately by noting the many big bangs that have marked the rapid development of futures literature in the last 40 years. They have given new phrases to the English language—Think-tank, Future Shock, Thermonuclear Warfare — which have sent special messages to our times. In their different ways they say that the future is not what it used to be. As the rate of change accelerates, the problems and the difficulties seem to go on increasing. As this article seeks to show, the beginning of the answers starts from the effort to arrive at a clear picture of the most probable future.     

Future kinship and the study of culture

Throughout the 20th century, body and machine have provided distinctive parallel metaphors for the concept of culture. But now these metaphors are merging as human lives are increasingly engineered through technonatural processes. In one imagined future, biotechnology will give us the means to determine our own genealogy and the potential to play a role in the ‘culturing’ of the future, as the natural and unpredictable transmission of human characteristics is transformed into a predictable process arising from the manipulation of the gene pool. New procreative possibilities—fertilization in vitro, gamete donation, maternal surrogacy etc—challenge us to reconstrue notions of identity and kinship; the article speculates on the implications of this for possible cultural futures.     

Why we should care for future generations now

This article argues that caring for future generations is a legitimate ethical concern that arises from our common humanity. The first section explores several reasons why this extension of concern is appropriate and desirable. The second considers a number of strategies for accomplishing this goal. It is argued that caring for future generations now has a number of ‘win—win’ outcomes. That is, it has positive implications for the well-being of present generations as well.     

Digitized bodies, virtual spectacles

The magnitude of recent advances in biomedical technologies has contributed to a significant shift in the common perceptions of the human body. This visual revolution has been achieved through the combination of prosthetic science, simulation technologies, genomics, informatics, biomedical engineering and—most importantly—advanced visualization techniques that include entirely new vectors of bodily image enhancement. Digital manipulations have contributed to a dramatic change in the relationship(s) between humans and machines and even those between humans themselves. While the theoretical, ethical and practical features of these developments permeate practically every aspect of our daily lives and have extended our understanding of communication with respect to the human body, the consequences for the future are obscure.     

The future quantified

The results reported in this paper demonstrate that the qualitative (group) research and quantitative (individual) survey techniques that have been developed now offer a viable means for mapping current expectations and the possible future directions these will take. Sensible use of these should provide governments, and large organisations in general, with a powerful new set of tools for positively managing the future. In terms of the issues themselves, the group which emerged most strongly from the quantified responses of the individuals are those which might be seen as relating to the ‘green' environment. On the other hand, our qualitative groups looked upon these key issues as representing matters of survival for humanity as a whole. Such a focus on survival may seem selfish, but it can also be seen as altruistic not concerned with personal survival. It also represents a sound, rational approach to long-term planning, where the respondents focused instead on how governments might positively, and safely, manage all the long-term issues threatening the future of humankind. If we move away from ‘green' issues, it is also clear that even individuals recognize the globalisation of issues in particular the globalisation of business, the possibility of a global financial crash and the (threat of) domination by Pacific Rim countries. At the opposite end of the spectrum are worries about the significant problems faced by the underclasses—and, in turn, the significant threat these present to society as a whole. In general though, apart from technological issues, the emphasis was—across almost all areas—on survival in the face of events ranging down from catastrophes to mere crises and stresses!     

The hunger for meaning

The global crisis is a crisis of meaning — a search for story as to how we now understand the world. The search for new meaning is explored through the congruence and convergence in the insights of several authors from the secular world; four in particular, two of whom are from the business world. Technology and materialism have made us mercenaries with no commitment and responsibility to the collective future, to morality, and to society. They reflect the false life energies we pursue in our search for meaning. Our innate desire to seek meaningful connection with the living world and a transcendent purpose in the universe is compromised. Yet this purpose is essential for evolutionary survival where we engage with the interior, subjective dimensions of reality, not just in our personal but also in our collective lives. The modern concepts of stewardship and partnership help in that transformation, of ourselves and in our systems of governance, from command and control structures to interdependent structures.     

Futures dreaming outside and on the margins of the western world

In this article, we challenge the hegemony of western science fiction, arguing that western science fiction is particular even as it claims universality. Its view remains based on ideas of the future as forward time. In contrast, in non-western science fiction the future is seen outside linear terms: as cyclical or spiral, or in terms of ancestors. In addition, western science fiction has focused on the good society as created by technological progress, while non-western science fiction and futures thinking has focused on the fantastic, on the spiritual, on the realization of eupsychia—the perfect self.However, most theorists assert that the non-west has no science fiction, ignoring Asian and Chinese science fiction history, and western science fiction continues to ‘other’ the non-west as well as those on the margins of the west (African–American woman, for example).Nonetheless, while most western science fiction remains trapped in binary opposites—alien/non-alien; masculine/feminine; insider/outsider—writers from the west’s margins are creating texts that contradict tradition and modernity, seeking new ways to transcend difference. Given that the imagination of the future creates the reality of tomorrow, creating new science fictions is not just an issue of textual critique but of opening up possibilities for all our futures.

Science fiction has always been nearly all white, just as until recently, it’s been nearly all male

(Butler as quoted in [1]).

Science fiction has long treated people who might or might not exist—extra-terrestrials. Unfortunately, however, many of the same science fiction writers who started us thinking about the possibility of extra-terrestrial life did nothing to make us think about here-at home variation—women, blacks, Indians, Asians, Hispanics, etc [1].

Is all science fiction western? Is there non-western science fiction? If so, what is its nature? Does it follow the form and content of western science fiction, or is it rendered different by its own local civilizational historical processes and considerations? Has western science fiction moulded the development of the science fiction of the ‘other’, including feminist science fiction, in such a way that anything coming from outside the west is a mere imitation of the real thing? Perhaps non-western science fiction is a contradiction in terms. Or is there authentic non-western fiction which offers alternative visions of the future, of the ‘other’?     

Does the Stock Market Fully Appreciate the Implications of Leading Indicators for Future Earnings? Evidence from Order Backlog

Although leading indicators are becoming increasingly important for equity valuation, disclosures of such indicators suffer from the absence of GAAP related guidance on content and presentation. We explicitly examine (i) whether one leading indicator—order backlog—predicts future earnings, and (ii) whether market participants correctly incorporate such predictive ability in determining share prices. We find that the stock market overweights the contribution of order backlog in predicting future earnings, and a hedge strategy that exploits such overweighting generates significant future abnormal returns. However, such mispricing is not due to analysts' inability to incorporate order backlog into their earnings forecasts.     

Modernizing innovations Analysing their use and prospects in Brazil

A recent study, conducted in Brazil, has investigated the difusion of new technologies and new organizational techniques—both important facets of the emerging technoeconomic paradigm—in the context of a newly industrializing country. In addition to examining current levels of use of these innovations in leading firms, it examines the expectations of managers as to future prospects for their use, and the implications for employment, training and competitive circumstances. As well as presenting methodological innovations, this article reports on the empirical results—indicating considerable uptake of some elements of the new paradigm, but less effort with respect to others—and develops scenarios for the future of the Brazilian economy.     

The city: heaven-on-earth or the hell-to-come?

Polis is the Greek for city; and, like so many things in our civilization, the never-ending debate about the ideal human environment began with the Greeks. To think about the ideal city, as Plato knew, is to think about the desirable, about the not-yet-achieved, about the future. There has been no end to the building of cities—from the Athens of Pericles to the Chandigarh of Le Corbusier. As I.F. Clarke shows, there is no end to the fiction of future cities for the reason that the applied sciences come like the Greeks bearing gifts; and these gifts can so affect the condition of human existence that the citizens have to plan their cities to meet growing populations, new means of communication, and ever-rising expectations. Before 1914 heaven was the organized, industrial metropolis. Since then the city of the future has moved through a history of hell-on-earth, first displayed in the dazzling images of Fritz Lang's Metropolis (1926), to the most recent space cities of the galactic age.     

名义价格幻觉——基于证券分析师目标价格预测的经验证据

本文利用证券分析师发布的股票目标价格预测,为名义价格幻觉提供了能够直接反映心理预期的经验证据。研究发现,证券分析师对低价股未来收益的心理预期显著高于高价股,该行为偏误在规模小、上市时间短、股票波动性大、财务透明度低和无形资产占比高等估值难度更大的股票中表现得更加明显。我们还利用股票送转,对证券分析师是否受到名义价格幻觉的影响做进一步验证,发现由送转引起的与基本面无关的名义价格下降显著提升了证券分析师对股票未来回报的心理预期。进一步研究表明,上述发现并不是因为证券分析师准确预见了低价股和高价股未来有不同的投资机会,也不是为了最大化其供职证券公司的利益而有意迎合投资者。     

Futures India: society, nation-state, civilisation

The future of a phenomenon can only be understood in terms of (a) the conceptual construction one makes of it and (b) the changes in empirical content of that phenomenon. In turn, the empirical reality ought to be discerned in terms of the past-present-future dialectic. Keeping this in view, this paper begins with conceptual clarifications of the terms society, nation-state and civilization and situates India in terms of these notions. It is suggested that India’s future as a society and as a civilisation is durable although some changes in their content are inevitable. But as a ‘nation-state’ India may radically change given the contestations about it. Four competing value-orientations—cultural monism, cultural pluralism, cultural federalism and cultural subalternism—about the contemporary Indian nation-state have been identified. India’s future as a nation-state will depend upon the legitimacy these value orientations achieve in future.     

Fundamental analysis of banks: the use of financial statement information to screen winners from losers

This study investigates the efficacy of a fundamental analysis-based approach to screen U.S. bank stocks. We construct an index (BSCORE) based on fourteen bank–specific valuation signals. We document a positive association between BSCORE and future profitability changes, as well as current and one-year-ahead stock returns, implying that BSCORE captures forward looking information that the markets are yet to impound. A hedge strategy based on BSCORE yields positive hedge returns for all but two years during our 1994–2014 sample period. Results are robust to partitions of size, analyst following, and exchange listing, and persist after adjusting for risk factors. We further document a positive relation between BSCORE and future analyst forecast surprises as well as earnings announcement period returns, and a negative relation between BSCORE and future performance-based delistings. Overall, our results show that a fundamental analysis-based approach can provide useful insights for analyzing banks.     

The community and public spaces: ecological thinking, mobility and social life in the open spaces of the city of the future

The roots of the present crisis of public urban spaces in the modern and contemporary city can be traced back not only to the history of the early vision of the planning movement to which the city planning discipline dedicates much attention, but also to the history of scientific thinking, the measuring eye that all of us—specialists, administrators, intellectuals and citizens alike—have used on it from the 17th century up to the present day. Recognition of these roots allows us to distinguish the fruitful from the sterile among the many directions offered by the various projects for the city of today and the city of the future. In the recent emphasis placed on the concept of community—in the interpretation offered here—lies the basis and motivations of some of the most interesting guidelines for an in-depth study and really innovative approach to the problems of city traffic and the closely associated problems of the reappropriation of a social dimension of public space for the city of the future.     

Integrating scenario planning and design thinking: Learnings from the 2014 Oxford Futures Forum

This issue of Futures has covered a lot of ground and much of it breaks new ground. It is not too bold to write that these articles have added new thinking to the scenario and design literatures. Even bolder, we believe that human existence and long-term sustainability are predicated in part on the ideas in this issue of Futures. In his recent book The Meaning of Human Existence, Pulitzer Prize winning Biologist E.O. Wilson wrote: premier among the consequences [of human existence] is the capacity to imagine possible futures, and to plan and choose among them. How wisely we use this uniquely human ability depends on the accuracy of our self-understanding. The question of greatest relevant interest is how and why we are the way we are, and from that, the meaning of our many competing visions of the future. Wilson, 2014, p. 14.     

The future of Muslim politics : Critique of the ‘fundamentalist’ theory of the Islamic state

This article considers the future of Muslim political thought in the context of growing de-Islamization and the dominance of Western institutions. The ‘fundamentalist’ theory of the Islamic state—total mobilization of Muslim societies under a universal state—is criticized as religiously an immanentist heresy, and politically a totalitarian nightmare. Proposed here is a way out of the moral and intellectual crisis in Islamic political thought through the principle of Shura—meaning that Muslims must evolve their own form of representative government.     

Technologies for the people: a future in the making

India’s post-independence policy of using science and technology for national development, and investment in research and development infrastructure resulted in success in space, atomic energy, missile development and supercomputing. Use of space technology has impacted directly or indirectly the vast majority of India’s billion plus population. Developments in a number of emerging technologies in recent years hold the promise of impacting the future of ordinary Indians in significant ways, if a proper policy and enabling environment are provided. New telecom technologies—a digital rural exchange and a wireless access system—are beginning to touch the lives of common people. Development of a low-cost handheld computing device, use of hybrid telemedicine systems to extend modern healthcare to the unreached, and other innovative uses of IT at the grassroots also hold promise for the future. Biotechnology too has the potential to deliver cost-effective vaccines and drugs, but the future of GM crops is uncertain due to growing opposition. Some of these emerging technologies hold promise for future, provided a positive policy and enabling environment.     

Forecasting the world's problems : The Last Empire: the corporatization of society and diminution of self

A future scenario is postulated—‘The Last Empire’—based on concern with the ramifications of increasing corporatization and moves away from individualism. The globalization of the marketplace is marked by increasing cultural, psychological, social and ideological homogeneity, politicoeconomic centralization and the threat to individualism. Personal demands for autonomy and a liberalization of the human spirit provide the counter-thrust. These competing trajectories are the context within which major global problems are viewed. Five major issues are treated here: the global economy; nationhood and cultural determinacy; the economic dimension; the educational agenda; and the individual's outlook. In each area the clashes between individual involvement and corporatization, and their outcomes, provide the key to forecasting and dealing with the world's future problems.