An introduction to Allan Gibbard’s oligarchy theorem paper

This note provides an introduction to the accompanying previously unpublished paper by Allan Gibbard in which he establishes his oligarchy theorem.     

Bridging Africa’s income inequality gap: How relevant is China’s outward FDI to Africa?

This study examines whether: (i) the remarkable inflow of Chinese FDI to Africa matters for bridging the continent’s marked income inequality gap, (ii) Africa’s institutional fabric is effective in propelling Chinese FDI towards the equalisation of incomes in Africa and (iii) there exist relevant thresholds required for the various governance dynamics to cause Chinese FDI to equalise incomes in Africa. Our results, which are based on the dynamic GMM estimator and macrodata for 48 African countries, reveal the following. First, although Chinese FDI contributes to fairer income distribution in Africa, the effect is weak. Second, although Africa’s institutional fabric matters for propelling Chinese FDI towards the equalisation of incomes across the continent, governance mechanisms for ensuring political stability, low corruption, and voice and accountability are critical. Finally, the critical masses required for these three key governance dynamics to cause Chinese FDI and other income inequality-reducing modules to reduce income inequality are 0.8, 0.5 and 0.1, respectively. These critical masses are thresholds at which governance is necessary but no longer sufficient to complement Chinese FDI to mitigate income inequality. Hence, at the attendant thresholds, complementary policies are worthwhile. Policy recommendations are provided in the conclusion.     

Global growth to 2024: reversion to which mean?

• We expect global GDP growth to average 3.5% per year (at PPP exchange rates) over the next ten years. This is lower than the 3.8% recorded in 2000–14 though not dramatically so. There will be a modest recovery in advanced economy growth ‐ but not to pre‐crisis rates. Emerging market (EM) growth will slow but remain faster than growth in the advanced economies. And with EM's share in world GDP much increased from 10–15 years ago, EMs will continue to provide a large proportion of world growth.
• EM growth is expected to run at around 4.5% per year in 2015–24, well down on the 6% seen in 2000–14. This includes a slowdown from around 10% to 5–6% in China ‐ but China's share in world GDP has risen so much that China's contribution to world growth will remain very substantial.
• Advanced economies are forecast to grow by 1.9% per year in 2015–24, a big improvement from the 1% pace of 2007–14 (which was affected by the global financial crisis) but below the 1990–2014 average. Indeed, the gap between forecast G7 GDP and GDP extrapolated using pre‐crisis trends in potential output will remain large at 10–15% in 2015–24.
• Global growth will remain relatively strong compared to much longer‐term averages: growth from 1870–1950 was only around 2% per year. But a return to such low growth rates looks unlikely; China and India were a major drag on world growth until the 1980s but are now fast growing regions.
• Our forecast is relatively cautious about key growth factors; the contribution of productivity growth is expected to improve slightly, while those from capital accumulation and labour supply fall back. Demographics will be a more severe drag on growth from 2025–40. Overall, risks to our long‐term forecasts look to be skewed to the downside.

     

Do universities knowledge spillovers impact on new firm’s growth? Empirical evidence from UK

The paper explores the effect of scientific institutions on firm’s growth, coupling regional science and entrepreneurship approaches. We focus on the role of universities, largely considered in the literature as the main source of knowledge spillovers. To this purpose, we centre our attention on UK public companies on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM), a market dedicated to young and growing companies in both science and non-science based industries. In the paper we investigate the growth determinants of 231 listed firms which have gone public during the period going from 1995 to 2006. To our purposes, in the empirical analysis we use the Gibrat’s Law of Proportionate Effects model. The results supports the hypothesis that, controlling for firm’s idiosyncratic factors and external forces, both universities knowledge input and output are important determinants of the growth of entrepreneurial firms listed on the AIM.

Formal sector job growth and women’s labor sector participation : The case of Mexico

This paper looks at the effects of demand and supply on the determinants of labor sector (school, home work, informal, and formal) participation between Torreon and Tijuana, Mexico for married and single women. Comparisons between the two cities are used to capture differences in labor demand. Torreon is a traditional city with an agri-industrial base and Tijuana is a border city with large export processing (maquiladora) and tourism sectors, both of which demand female labor. Factors influencing labor supply include both individual and household characteristics. Married women, given the strong cultural tradition of working in the home, do not significantly increase their paid labor participation with higher labor demand or changing characteristics of the household. Personal characteristics have the greatest impact on labor sector participation. Single women do, however, increase their formal sector participation with additional employment opportunities and respond to household needs by moving in and out of the paid labor market. Results indicate that increases in labor demand in Mexico from the NAFTA could expand formal sector labor force participation of single women.     

Correction to: From stand-up to start-up: exploring entrepreneurship competences and STEM women’s intention

International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal - The author included the name of her University in English “Technical University of Madrid” and it seems that to validate it for...     

A short proof of Deb’s Theorem on Schwartz’s rule

Schwartz in (Nous,7, 1972, Definition, 3) introduces a generalization of the Condorcet criterion, which is the classical approach to rational choice in the context of cycles, and he defines the Schwartz set. Deb (J Econ Theory 16:103–110, 1977) shows that the Schwartz set consists of the maximal elements according to the transitive closure of the asymmetric part of a binary relation corresponding to a choice process or representing the decision maker’s preferences. This note provides a short and simple proof of Deb’s theorem on the characterization of the Schwartz set.     

The Fed’s TRAP

The article examines if US monetary policy implicitly responds to asset price booms. Using real-time data and a GMM framework we estimate a Taylor-type rule with an asset variable that captures phases of booms and busts in the real estate market. We identify quasi real-time booms and busts using an asset cycle dating procedure. Our analysis yields two main findings. Firstly, the Fed does implicitly respond to asset price booms in the real estate market. Secondly, these responses are typically pro-cyclic and their intensity changes over time.     

Reflections on PATCO’s Legacy: Labor’s Strategic Challenges Persist

The 1981 PATCO strike stands out as a symbol of union decline. The penchant to stigmatize PATCO detracts from important aspects of the union’s unorthodox strategy. Preparations for 1981 negotiations were coordinated by rank-and-file activists who referred to themselves as ‘choir boys’. An extensive mobilization network cultivated by the ‘choir boys’ contributed to cohesiveness and in effect democratized PATCO. The union’s effectiveness in building internal solidarity was its most notable accomplishment. Twenty-first-century labor-movement revitalization will require not only strong, creative leadership but also rank-and-file mobilization in the mold of PATCO’s ‘choir boy’ system. It is this type of grassroots activism that has the potential to promote an internal culture of militant action which can serve as the foundation for union growth.

Approaches to solving China’s marine plastic pollution and CO2 emission problems

Global contamination of the oceans by waste plastics is of increasing concern. Besides being the largest emitter of CO₂ in the world, China is suspected of being the largest contributor to marine plastic waste pollution. Responsible for the latter is the still inadequate management of waste in China, a significant improvement of which is necessary for addressing the issue of marine plastic pollution. Since plastics are hydrocarbons, submitting them to appropriate waste treatment/recycling technologies could contribute to mitigating the emission of CO₂, indicating the possibility of addressing the two environmental issues simultaneously. Based on the combined use of waste input–output and linear programming, we investigated options for mitigating CO₂ emissions under consideration of alternative waste treatment/recycling processes applied to waste plastics of China. It was found that of the nine processes considered, four could result in a net reduction in the emission: a win-win situation.     

Ethics,morality and the subject: the contribution of Zygmunt Bauman and Michel Foucault to `postmodern’ business ethics

This paper discusses a `postmodern’ alternative to business ethics in the light of two authors: Zygmunt Bauman and Michel Foucault. Despite their different usage of the concepts `ethics’ and `morality', both offer an approach to ethics that avoids the problems of a self-enclosed subject inherent in liberal as well as in communal theories. Bauman and Foucault demonstrate how the continuation of social dialogue suffers from the postulation of fixed individual and organizational identities. Managers and other participants cannot formulate ethical rules on their own, but neither can they come together as a community without tensions and difference. Instead, embodied engagement in the reciprocal play of interpretations and influences keeps us ethically attuned to the limits of reason.     

Exploring creative entrepreneurs’ happiness: cognitive style,guanxi and creativity

Traditional economic theories generally assume that entrepreneurs’ satisfaction is largely affected by financial performance of their entrepreneurial business, while recent research suggests that entrepreneurs’ happiness is more important than financial success. Drawing upon the theories of entrepreneurial cognition and social networks, we develop a model to explore the factors influencing entrepreneurs’ happiness. A total of 270 creative entrepreneurs in Taiwan’s creative industries are studied. Results show that entrepreneurs’ creating cognitive style has a positive effect on both entrepreneurs’ creativity and firm creativity, but entrepreneurs’ planning cognitive style has a negative effect. Findings indicate that entrepreneurs with strong family ties and business ties have high level of individual creativity and firm creativity, which then have a positive influence on entrepreneurs’ happiness.     

The role of the seller’s stock performance in the market reaction to divestiture announcements

Divestitures have the potential to create shareholder value. However, the extent of the market reaction should depend on the likelihood of finding more valuable uses for the divested assets or the ability on the part of the seller to eliminate negative synergies. We hypothesize that strong performers have less scope to achieve substantial improvements compared to poorly performing firms. Using the seller’s stock return in excess of the market return in the 1-year and 2-year periods preceding the divestiture announcement to expose the divesting firm’s inefficient use of its assets, we show that the market reaction to divestiture announcements is significantly higher for underperforming firms. The difference in abnormal returns can be as high as 4 %. In contrast, none of the accounting-based variables that have been used in previous studies are found to be significantly related to the announcement returns. These results suggest that the firm’s stock performance is a more useful indicator of the wealth effect associated with divestitures.     

On the nearness of record values to order statistics from Pitman’s measure of closeness

In the two-sample prediction problem, record values from the present sample may be used as predictors of order statistics from a future sample. In this paper, we investigate the nearness of record statistics (upper and lower) to order statistics from a location-scale family of distributions in the sense of Pitman closeness and discuss the corresponding monotonicity properties. We then determine the closest record value to a specific order statistic from a future sample. Even though in general it depends on the parent distribution, exact and explicit expressions are derived for the required probabilities in the case of exponential and uniform distributions, and some computational results are presented as well. Finally, we consider the mean squared error criterion and examine the corresponding results in the exponential case.     

Employment in China’s hi-tech zones

The purpose of this paper is to explore employment differences over time across China’s hi-tech zones. Using data from China’s Ministry of Science and Technology, we find that if a university science park is within a hi-tech zone, employment in that zone is higher, but that finding only holds for zones established in the pre-information communication technology period. After 2000, proximity to a university science park does not appear to be necessary for the exchange of tacit knowledge which we contend leverages the technology base of firms and organizations in the zone and thus their level of employment. We also find greater employment in hi-tech zones in which information technology is a dominant industry.     

Global estimates of growth–inequality–poverty (GIP) triangle: evidence from World Bank’s classification countries

This study extended the concept of ‘growth–inequality–poverty (GIP) triangle’ by using the principle component approach which allows us to composite different poverty and inequality indicators into one single index that contains most of the useful information from the original dataset. Using the idea of GIP triangle, this study examines the long-run relationship among weighted poverty index (which comprises headcount ratio, poverty gap and squared poverty gap); weighted inequality index (i.e., Watts Index, Gini Index and MLD Index) and average monthly per capita income in the designated 138 countries according to World Bank’s classification over a period of 2005–2010. The data set mainly contain countries’ unit record household survey at least one which is conducted between the countries during the sample period. The regression model encompassing the impact of economic growth and income inequality on poverty reflects that income inequality increases poverty while economic growth decreases poverty. It indicates that the impact of inequality in increasing poverty is a somewhat greater than that of growth in average income in reducing overall poverty in a sample countries. The other regression model encompassing the impact of economic growth and poverty on income inequality showed that the poverty itself is also likely to be a barrier for poverty reduction; and inequality seems to predict lower future growth rates. The final regression model depicting the impact of poverty and income inequality on mean income of the household suggests that poverty itself reduces mean income of the household while income inequality increases economic growth. The results are interesting and simply suggest that whenever social institutions malfunction, the incidence of damage would usually be distributed unevenly over the society’s members.     

An application of Stein’s method to limit theorems for pairwise negative quadrant dependent random variables

Stein’s method is used to derive an error in normal approximation for sums of pairwise negative quadrant dependent random variables, but under the assumption of second moment only. This allows us to derive a central limit theorem for pairwise negative quadrant dependent random variables with Lindeberg’s condition. Research supported by Science Foundation of Zhejiang Provincial Education(no. 20060122)