工业碳排放驱动因素研究:一种生产分解分析新方法

本文基于非参数距离函数和环境生产技术,构建了一种生产分解分析新方法,将碳排放变动分解为若干贡献因素,并应用于分析我国工业36个行业碳排放的驱动因素。结果表明,潜在能源结构碳强度对工业二氧化碳排放强度下降的贡献要小于潜在能源强度,能源强度调整空间更大;能源结构碳强度由于煤炭占总能源消费比例过高趋势并未扭转,致使结构节能的潜力并未有效释放;能源利用技术效率改善不明显,各行业能源利用技术效率差异成扩大趋势。     

我国各省市能源强度的差异及节能潜力

本文旨在分析各省市能源强度的差异及它们的节能潜力,对各省市控制能源消耗有一定的指导意义。文章首先计算了29个省市2009年的能源强度,分析了各省市能源强度的差异,并在此基础上计算了各省市的节能潜力,针对各省市的情况,提出了一定的建议。     

我国产业结构变动对碳排放强度影响的实证研究

通过建立模型,从横向和纵向两个角度分析了我国产业结构对碳排放强度的影响,实证结果表明：产业结构和能源消费结构对碳排放强度的变动有着较大影响;第二产业在经济结构中所占的比重高或煤炭消费占有较大比重的省区其碳排放强度较高,但通过调整和优化产业结构和能源消费结构可以有效达到降低碳排放强度的目的;第二产业对整个社会的碳排放强度的贡献率较大,其内部结构变化对碳排放强度变化有较大影响。因此,我国碳排放强度研究应该重点放在实行结构节能减排上,从调整产业结构、淘汰产能落后的行业、实施产业转移、改善能源利用结构等方面入手实现全国碳减排的目标。     

能源价格对能源强度的影响——以国内制造业为例

本文运用1985-2003年的时间序列数据，对我国制造业、能源价格和能源强度之间的关系作了实证研究。计量检验的结果表明，能源相对价格的上升对于降低总能源强度、石油强度、电力强度和煤炭强度具有积极的贡献。提高能源价格是改善能源效率的一个有效政策工具。     

基于SDA的结构效应对能源强度影响程度的实证研究

本文应用结构分解法(SDA)研究了结构效应在我国1980～2005年间能源强度变化中所起的作用,同时通过国际比较分析了我国与世界主要国家能源强度的差距以及其中的结构效应、非结构效应。研究结果表明:结构效应是形成我国与世界其他国家能源强度差异的主要原因,其中,中国的能源强度高于印度能源强度的所有原因均在于结构效应,这主要是我国这些年来产业结构一直没有发生根本性的变化。因此,优化产业结构是进一步降低我国能源强度的重要措施。     

中国能源强度变化的区域影响分析

为了解各类区域对我国能源强度变化的具体影响,本文运用完全分解模型,从省级区域、东中西部和经济发展不同组别等三类区域角度对我国能源强度变化的影响进行分解分析。结果发现:(1)在1997～2002年,对我国能源强度下降起最大正作用的是辽宁、黑龙江、江苏、四川、湖北5个省份、中部以及经济发展中组;(2)在2002～2005年,对我国能源强度下降起最大负作用的是内蒙古、河北、江苏、山东、湖南5个省级区域、东部以及经济发展高组;(3)要促使我国能源强度下降,首要监控对象应该是江苏、河北和湖南3个省份、东部以及经济发展高组。     

中国能源结构调整及其节能减排潜力评估

能源结构调整是实现节能减排的重要措施之一,但能源结构的调整受到能源内部替代性和能源供给结构的制约。本文建立内部替代约束和供给约束下的能源结构优化模型,给出碳排放量最优化的部门能源结构。研究结果表明:在目前的技术水平和预测的能源供给下,经济增长的速度越低,碳强度下降的幅度越大;以2010年的能源结构为基础进行优化,在2020年可节能16.16亿~18.50亿吨标煤,减排50.31亿~51.99亿吨CO_2,使碳强度比2010年下降31.73%~37.88%,比2005年下降46.21%~51.05%,完全可以实现预定的碳强度下降40%~45%的目标,并可在经济中低速增长的情形下实现能源总量控制目标。     

低碳经济下的浙江省能源需求情景预测

本文运用情景分析法和能源强度系数法相结合,预测了浙江2010-2020年三种情景下的未来各产业部门的能源需求总量和生活能源需求。同时针对节能减排任务,分析了经济结构对能源需求和能源强度的影响并提出了政策建议。     

基于能源投入产出表分析四川天然气能耗强度

四川是我国天然气消费最成熟的地区。我们根据2002年、2005年、20007年四川省各产业产值及其消费各种能源的相关数据,编制实物价值型能源投入产出表,建立能源投入产出模型,分析四川天然气的直接能耗和完全能耗;在此基础上,采用因素分解法,将天然气能耗变动因素分解为能源强度变化、产品技术变化和最终需求变化等三方面,从而找出影响四川天然气能耗强度变动的原因,准确揭示四川天然气能耗强度变化与四川各产业发展的关联。     

技术进步、节能减排与发展方式转型——基于中国工业36个行业的实证考察

本文在考虑能源与排放因素的基础上,测算并分解中国36个工业行业基于绿色增长的技术进步,分析了工业节能减排的转型特征。以此为基础,采用面板技术实证分析技术进步对节能减排的非对称影响。结果显示,工业能耗与排放具有明显的行业异质性,高能耗与高排放强度行业节能减排潜力巨大;技术进步对节能减排具有显著正向影响,其中科技进步的贡献最大,纯技术效率、规模效率次之;能源消费结构对减排具有重要影响,在减排政策中应重点关注。     

How to reduce energy intensity to achieve sustainable development of China's transport sector? A cross-regional comparison analysis

China's transport sector has been attracting great attention for its excessive energy consumption and ever-increasing pollution emissions. Thus, reducing energy intensity is one of the top priorities of China's ongoing transport upgrade. In this paper, by establishing a panel data regression model derived from the Cobb–Douglas cost function, we focus on investigating the impacts of energy price and transport productivity on transport energy intensity at the national and regional levels. The study uses the provincial panel data for 2005–2016 to perform regression analysis. The results show that: (1) energy price has a significantly negative effect on transport energy intensity in the whole China and the eastern region, whereas it has no significant impacts in the central and western China. (2) Improvements in transport productivity can effectively decrease transport energy intensity in the whole China and the three major regions. (3) Applying an extended data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach, we decompose transport productivity into four components (i.e., technical change, technology gap change, scale efficiency change, and pure efficiency change) and further differentiate their impacts in different regions. The results indicate that these four components have substantially different impacts in each region. These results provide some valuable insights for policymakers and enterprise entities aiming to adopt measures to reduce energy intensity and achieve sustainable development in China's transport sector.     

CAN THE CARBONIZING DRAGON BE DOMESTICATED? INSIGHTS FROM A DECOMPOSITION OF ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND INTENSITY IN CHINA, 1987–2007

China has relied on energy to stimulate its booming economy. As a result, its share of world energy consumption rose to 17.3% in 2009 from 7.9% in 1978. Somewhat surprisingly, through 2000 its rate of energy consumption was about half its rate of economic growth. This trend changed after 2001 as energy consumption rose about 1.3 times more rapidly than did gross domestic product through 2005. Through heavy governmental influence, energy intensity subsequently reduced through 2007, but just marginally. This paper uses the structural decomposition approach to understand key drivers behind changes in China's energy intensity and its energy consumption from 1987 to 2007. In our model, energy intensity change was decomposed into five factors: changes in energy efficiency, changes in share of value added, changes in input structure, changes in consumption structure, and changes in consumption volume. This paper provides insights into how changes in China's economic structure, technology, urbanization, and lifestyle affect energy intensity and energy consumption.     

基于ISP指数的中国能源生产率再测度与分解研究

本文首次采用基于投入冗余的全要素生产率指数来重新测度和分解中国1985-2009年29个省份的能源生产率,该指数优势在于不仅可以测度与分解全要素生产率,而且可以将全要素生产率进一步分解为各种投入要素的生产率,测度的能源生产率还可以分解为能源的技术变化与技术效率变化。研究表明：中国能源生产率年均提高2.89%,总体水平并不高,低于其他国内外文献的测度结果。2002年是中国能源生产率发生变化的关键年份。2002年之前,中国能源生产率年均变化为3.69%,但是波动性较大,2002年之后,中国的能源生产率水平稳步上升。2002年之前,技术变化是能源生产率提升的主要驱动力量,2002年之后,技术效率变化推动了中国能源生产率的稳步上升,表明中国能源生产率开始走上效率提升的轨道。中、西部与东部的能源生产率水平差距越来越大,技术变化是导致东、中、西部之间差距的主要原因。东部地区呈现出“高能效-高增长”的经济发展模式,而中西部则表现为“低能效-低增长”的经济发展模式。全部省份的能源生产率均得到提升,最佳实践省份越来越多,但是省份之间的追赶效应只有0.36%,     

A Spatial Structural Decomposition Analysis of Chinese and Japanese Energy Demand: 1985–1990

This paper proposes a spatial structural decomposition analysis to measure the effects of the changes in intra- and inter-country linkages on the embodied energy demand in the concerned country. For the empirical analysis, we have used the China- Japan inter-country input–output tables for 1985 and 1990, expressed in constant prices of 1990. The empirical results reveal that (1) at least for the period between 1985 and 1990, the effects of the non-competitive input structural changes in China on the primary energy requirements of Japan were negligible, and (2) the contribution of the Japanese final demand shifts on the total change in Chinese primary energy demand was 40 times larger than that of the Chinese final demand shifts on the primary energy requirements of Japan. The Japanese policy makers should concentrate on the energy impacts of the changes in the domestic production structure rather than the changes in the Chinese production structure.     

对中国创新能源开发利用模式的思考

应对气候变化的形势要求中国创新能源开发利用模式。可持续能源发展理念的核心是节能减排与新能源的开发利用,中国的能源和环境状况决定了创新能源开发利用模式对于应对气候变化、转变经济发展方式的重要现实意义。本文在阐明创新能源开发利用模式的必要性的基础上,探讨了中国在创新能源开发利用方面取得的积极成效,对中国创新能源开发利用模式的发展目标和行动策略进行了探索,表明了中国作为负责任的大国在应对气候变化中做出的不懈努力和突出贡献。     

STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND GROWTH IN CHINA UNDER ECONOMIC REFORMS: PATTERNS,CAUSES AND IMPLICATIONS

This paper investigates the patterns, causes, and implications of China's structural change and its contribution to China's regional growth. Among many other findings, our regression results show that conditional convergence exists across different regions in China. Regional structural change has a convergence effect and regional openness facilitates regional structural change. Structural shocks and structural transformation had the opposite effect on China's interregional convergence during the 1990s, though the combined effect of overall structural change is a convergence effect. We also find that Chinese regions rely more heavily on structural change for labor productivity growth as the economy evolves. In summary, the results of our empirical analysis support the hypothesis underlying the theoretical model of this paper.     

The rebound effect on energy efficiency improvements in China’s transportation sector: A CGE analysis

Energy use is becoming more efficient due to technological innovations. We focused on the transportation sector in China to develop a national multisector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for analyzing the rebound effect from an improvement of 10% in the energy efficiency. We compared the size of the energy rebound effect at both the macroeconomic and sectoral levels in different transportation modal subsectors, namely rail, road, water, and air travel. The findings showed that the magnitude of the rebound effect varies across the transportation modes. This is particularly true for the air transportation sector, which has an economy-wide rebound effect of 30.1% and an own-sector rebound effect of 74.6% because of a sharp increase in the export demand for air transport services. We also quantitatively evaluated the contribution of energy efficiency improvement in the transportation sector to China’s economic growth and carbon reductions and found a positive dividend effect on the economy as well as the environment. The modeling results suggest that improving overall transportation energy efficiency by 10% generates an economy-wide welfare gain of approximately 29 billion yuan, while 19 billion yuan are attributable to a more efficient road transportation subsector. Furthermore, to offset the effects of these mode-specific rebound effects, we simulated the effectiveness of different policies and solutions. These included economic instruments in the form of energy, environmental, and carbon taxes, household transport consumption structure adjustments, and energy structure adjustments. This study revealed that combining these sustainable development policies offers opportunities for economy-wide multisectoral improvements in energy savings, emissions reduction, and economic benefits.     

上海能源效率变动及其因素分析

本文首先就上海能源效率的发展现状进行了分析，结果显示，上海经济总量持续上升、产业结构变动显著，上海能源强度持续下降，但这一趋势近期有所减缓。为了能进一步分析上海能源效率的决定因素，本文构建了能源效率分析的因素分析模型，选用对数平均迪氏指数法（Log Mean Divisia Index）对上海的整体能源效率进行研究，并讨论上海整体能源效率变动的原因。结果表明，以部门强度效应为主、结构效应为辅的两大影响因素共同提高了上海的整体能源效率。最后，本文从优化产业结构、加大科研投资、促进能源结构多元化、加快新能源发展等方面提出了对提高上海能源效率的政策建议。     

Energy Demand,Structural Change and Trade: A Decomposition Analysis of the Danish Manufacturing Industry

This paper examines the relation between trade patterns and energy consumption in manufacturing industries. An input-output decomposition method is used to decompose the change in industrial energy consumption for Denmark into six components, of which three are trade-related. Trade-induced changes in energy consumption have important implications for issues such as international distribution and regulation of energy consumption and emissions. It is shown that a structural change in foreign trade patterns can increase domestic energy demand. This is contrary, however, to what might be expected for a small industrialized country, which is presumed to export products that intensively use inputs of skilled manpower as well as research and development. Finally, calculations carried out at different levels of aggregation are compared. The findings here demonstrate the importance of large variations in energy intensities among subsectors for the calculation results.