城镇居民教育收益率及其分布特征

本文以中国居民收入分配课题组2002年城镇住户调查数据为基础,利用分位回归分析方法讨论城镇居民教育收益率与收入条件分布之间的关联形式。本文的基本结论表明,在收入条件分布较高的分位点上,所对应的教育收益率相对较低,即教育收益率随着收入等级的提高而下降;另一方面,收入函数中引入不同类型的控制变量将会影响到平均的教育收益率估计水平,这也在一定程度上影响到教育收益率的分布特征。就方法论来说,分位回归分析可能为教育收益率估计中如何剔除能力因素所造成的偏差提供了一种解决办法;就政策意义而言,本文的结论表明,教育扩展可能更有利于低收入人口的收入的增长。当然,在施加不同类型控制变量的过程中,我们也发现就业特征对于教育收益率具有非常重要的影响,这不仅表明我国劳动力市场具有分割特性,也可能意味着就业或职业获得成为收入差距扩张的重要因素。     

城乡教育收益率的变动趋势

根据抽样调查数据的计算结果,我国教育收益率的变动具有下述特征:(1)与1988年、1995年水平相比,教育收益率逐年提高。与1988年、1995年的教育收益率水平相比,2000年的教育收益率有较大幅度的提高,城镇居民的教育收益率从1988年的3.8%到1995年的5.73%,再到2000年的6.57%;农村居民的教育收益率从1988年的2.50%上升到2000年的4.21%。无论是城镇的教育收益率还是农村的教育收益率都有了较大幅度的提高。(2)城镇的教育收益率高于农村的教育收益率,而且差距在逐渐拉大。1988年城镇教育收益率比农村教育收益率高1.3个百分点,而2000年城镇居民教育收…     

市场化能够消除歧视吗?——来自"身高溢价"的证据

市场化改革能改善资源配置效率,对中国的劳动力市场具有重要影响.文章使用中国家庭追踪调查2014年数据(CFPS2014),结合中国分省份市场化指数数据,分析了增进地区市场化程度对消除身高歧视的作用.结果表明:首先,我国劳动力市场存在"身高溢价"现象,即身高对收入具有显著正影响,并且身高优势有助于劳动力获得白领职业和进入具有较高职业声望的职业类别.其次,通过"中介作用"模型对其影响机理进行分析发现,身高溢价很可能是来自于劳动力市场上的雇主歧视行为,而非消费者歧视或个体在受教育水平、认知能力及非认知能力等人力资本方面的差异.最后,"身高溢价"现象具有明显的地区异质性,在相对欠发达的地区其影响更具显著性,而增进地区市场化程度能够显著降低劳动力市场的外貌特征歧视.     

教育扩展背景下我国城镇教育收益率的变动趋势研究：2002—2018

基于教育扩展背景,本文使用CHIP2002、2007、2013和2018的四轮城镇住户调查数据,探究我国城镇教育收益率的长期变动趋势。研究发现：首先,2002—2018年,我国城镇居民的工资性收入不断提高,且城镇居民收入分配状况展现了波动发展,并在细分时段内差距呈现扩大或缩小的演变态势;其次,平均教育收益率呈现先提高后降低并趋于稳定的趋势,相对教育收益率呈现出一定的先递增后递减的趋势;最后,低收入人群教育收益率展现了一定的逐年递增趋势,而高收入群体的教育收益率水平却比较稳定。本文不仅有助于理清教育与劳动力市场之间关系的长期演变态势,同时也对促进更加公平和可持续的教育发展具有决策参考价值。     

外来劳动力的工资溢价研究

我国外来劳动力呈现出城—城流动占比提高和素质明显提升的新特征,本文利用中国劳动力动态调查数据,研究外来劳动力与本地劳动的工资差异及其背后的成因机制。主要研究结论为：(1)外来劳动力相较于本地劳动力获得了11.2%的工资溢价。不论是乡—城流动还是城—城流动,不论是跨省流动还是省内流动,与相同户口类型和相同技能的本地劳动力相比,外来劳动力皆获得了更高的工资溢价。(2)高技能对于外来劳动力的工资溢价具有重要的作用,与本地劳动力相比,外来劳动力的高技能工资溢价率为22%,在一线和新一线城市中更加明显。(3)外来劳动力的工资溢价,来源于自选择效应和国有部门歧视型被选择效应共同作用的结果,这表明我国劳动力市场中部门分割的流动性障碍问题亟待解决。     

中国城乡教育收益率差异与收入差距

本文利用CHNS数据,研究了历次调查年份分城乡和性别的教育收益率的动态变化。研究发现,分城乡和性别的教育收益率都基本呈现逐年递增的趋势,但城镇的教育收益率总是高于农村,而无论是城镇还是农村,女性的教育收益率都高于男性。从动态变化来看,自2000年以来城乡教育收益率的差异逐年加大,其中主要是城乡男性劳动力的教育收益率差距增大。本文的研究表明,除教育水平本身的差异以外,教育收益率差异的扩大也是引起城乡收入差距加剧的重要原因。     

工资“拉力”与城市劳动力流入峰值——基于“推拉”理论的中国经济实证

本文采用2004—2009年全国284个城市的面板数据,依据人口迁移的"推拉"理论对我国劳动力要素流动问题进行了整体样本与分样本的实证研究。从实证的结果来看,我国城市工资水平对劳动力要素流入的拉力在整体上呈现递减状态,也即工资水平的提高不能带来劳动力供给的无限增加,劳动力数量同工资水平之间的倒U关系使得劳动力流入城市的数量在理论上有个峰值。同时城市分样本估计告诉我们,低收入城市与高收入城市的工资水平对劳动力要素的拉力是不同的,高收入城市已经进入了工资拉力递减的倒U状态,而低收入城市则处于工资边际效用递增阶段,因此对高收入与低收入城市的城市化政策应该是有差异的。同时本文的研究也引发了我们对城市的生产力峰值与劳动力要素流入峰值的协调性思考。     

如何解释省内财政分权:一项基于中国实证数据的研究

省内财政分权的决定因素是当前财政分权研究的新的分支。尽管中国是一个单一制国家,但省内财政支出分权差异极大。文章对如何解释省内财政分权,省内财政分权的差异有什么样的政策启示进行了研究。基于1995年至2006年的面板数据,文章应用固定效应和两阶段最小二乘法的估计方法来研究省内分权的决定因素。结果显示,在其他条件不变的情况下,获得中央资助最多的省份,省内支出分权的程度最低。研究表明,中间层级政府(主要指省级政府)也有截留转移支付的可能。基于新的委托代理理论,文章认为,中国需要考虑建立更加透明、有效率的转移支付体系。而省内支出分权也需要得到进一步的规范。     

农民工的教育收益率上升了吗?—基于2006、2008、2010年珠三角农民工问卷调查的分析

教育收益率是人力资本理论研究的重要内容,是衡量市场转型的重要指标。现有研究对农民工群体的教育收益率关注不足。利用2006年、2008年和2010年珠三角农民工的调查数据,使用明瑟基准模型进行估计。研究发现:珠三角农民工三年的教育收益率分别为7.45%、6.75%和5.21%,并未出现递增的趋势;经济增长并未给农民工带来较高的教育收益率。导致这种现象的原因是珠三角的产业结构没有升级或提升缓慢,劳动力市场与教育市场不匹配。     

我国外汇储备币种结构与收益率的一个估计

文章在假设持有美元、欧元、日元三种币种结构的前提下,构建了我国外汇储备增长率的分解方程,利用Recursive Residual和虚拟变量法来处理异常点,同时借助CUSUM检验确认了2003年8月为结构性断点,继而分为两个子样本分别估计,并得出:(1)2003年8月前,我国外汇储备平均收益率约为3.66%,欧元资产比例大约为11.78%;2003年8月后欧元资产比例上升至21.79%,收益率微升至4.03%.(2)利用估计出的币种结构进一步对收益率进行调整,并将调整后的收益率与我国同期的GDP增长率和FDI投资回报率进行对比,说明改变现行的消极管理模式为强调市场化手段、旨在提高收益率为特征的积极管理模式的必要性,同时针对积极型外汇储备管理模式给出了进一步的研究展望.     

LABOR DEMAND AND THE WAGE GAP IN THE WEST BANK AND GAZA STRIP

The returns to schooling for Palestinian men in the West Bank and Gaza Strip declined sharply from 1981 to 1987 but recovered slightly from 1987 to 1991. This article examines the degree to which these returns were associated with the demand for Palestinian labor. Contrary to previous research, the current study finds that labor demand and not just the increased schooling of Palestinians determined the returns to schooling. Specifically, increased demand for unskilled Palestinian labor in Israel and decreased demand for Palestinian workers in other Arab states combined to explain one-fifth to one-quarter of the decline in the wage gap from 1981 to 1987.     

Social learning,neighborhood effects,and investment in human capital: Evidence from Green-Revolution India

This paper empirically identifies social learning and neighborhood effects in schooling investments in a new technology regime. Social learning implies that learning is most efficient when observed heterogeneity in schooling is greatest. The estimates of learning-investment rule, from farm household panel data at the onset of the Green Revolution in India, show that (i) agents learn about schooling returns from income realizations of their neighbors, and (ii) the speed of learning is high when the variation of schooling is large. Thus, schooling distribution of the parents' generation in a community has externalities to schooling investments in children. Simulations show that the variations in schooling within and across communities generate variations in child enrollment rate and average household income.     

Education and earnings in urban West Africa

Using a series of comparable labor force surveys in urban West Africa, we estimate the private returns to education among representative samples of workers in seven economic capitals (Abidjan, Bamako, Cotonou, Dakar, Lome, Niamey and Ouagadougou). The data allow us to provide a unique cross-country comparison using rigorously the same variables and methodology for each country. We tackle the issues of endogenous sector allocation (public, formal private and informal sectors) and endogeneity of the education variable in the earnings functions. We find that the returns to schooling are most often enhanced once an endogenous education variable is accounted for. This effect holds particularly true in the informal sector. In most West African cities of our sample, the public sector gives more value to education, followed by the formal private sector and then the informal sector. We also shed light on convex returns to education in all the cities and sectors, including in informal activity. More generally, a major contribution of this paper is to provide evidence of significant effects of education on individual earnings in the informal sectors of the West African cities, even at high levels of schooling.     

Economic returns to schooling in urban China, 1988 to 2001

This study provides estimates of the returns to schooling in urban China over an extended period of economic reforms. We find a dramatic increase in the returns to education, from only 4.0 percent per year of schooling in 1988 to 10.2 percent in 2001. Most of the rise in the returns to education occurred after 1992 and reflected an increase in the wage premium for higher education. The rise is observed within groups defined by sex, work experience, region, and ownership, and is robust to the inclusion of different control variables. The timing and pattern of changing schooling returns suggest that they were influenced strongly by institutional reforms in the labor market that increased the demand for skilled labor. Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (4) (2005) 730–752.     

Individual heterogeneity in the returns to schooling: instrumental variables quantile regression using twins data

Considerable effort has been exercised in estimating mean returns to education while carefully considering biases arising from unmeasured ability and measurement error. Recent work has investigated whether there are variations from the “mean” return to education across the population with mixed results. We use an instrumental variables estimator for quantile regression on a sample of twins to estimate an entire family of returns to education at different quantiles of the conditional distribution of wages while addressing simultaneity and measurement error biases. We test whether there is individual heterogeneity in returns to education and find that: more able individuals obtain more schooling perhaps due to lower marginal costs and/or higher marginal benefits of schooling and that higher ability individuals (those further to the right in the conditional distribution of wages) have higher returns to schooling consistent with a non-trivial interaction between schooling and unobserved abilities in the generation of earnings. The estimated returns are never lower than 9 percent and can be as high as 13 percent at the top of the conditional distribution of wages but they vary significantly only along the lower to middle quantiles. Our findings may have meaningful implications for the design of educational policies.     

Lower and upper bounds of returns to schooling: An exercise in IV estimation with different instruments

Several recent studies based on `exogenous' sources of variation in educational outcomes show IV estimates of returns to schooling that are substantially higher than the corresponding OLS estimates. Card (1995a, Earnings, schooling, and ability revisited. Research in Labor Economics 14, 23–48) suggests that these results are explained by the existence of heterogenity in individual returns and by the fact that these studies are based on instruments that influence only the educational decision of individuals with high marginal returns due to either liquidity constraints or to high ability. This conclusion is consistent with the local average treatment effect (LATE) interpretation of IV (Imbens and Angrist (1994, Identification and estimation of local average treatment effects. Econometrica 62, 467–475) according to which IV identifies only the average returns of those who comply with the assignment-to-treatment mechanism implied by the instrument. We show evidence for Germany suggesting that returns to schooling are heterogeneous, instruments matter and the LATE interpretation of IV makes sense. With an appropriate choice of instruments we also show how IV can be used to approximate the range of variations of returns to schooling in Germany.     

Filial Obligations and Child Labor

The model presented here reproduces the empirical fact that poorer countries show a higher incidence of child labor and time‐intensive care of retired parents, whereas richer countries have negligible child labor and people indulge in money‐intensive care of the old. For that purpose, the effect of social norms of filial obligations on child labor and schooling decisions is analyzed. It is shown that norms of filial obligations are sustainable as an equilibrium in the intergenerational game. Widely discussed contracting problems à la Becker, which allegedly explain underinvestment in schooling by poor households, are thus solved. However, this alone does not induce the elimination of child labor. Technological parameters and relative returns to schooling also play a fundamental role.     

The returns to education and wage penalty from overeducation: New evidence from Vietnam

This study intends to estimate the rate of returns to education in Vietnam, the distributive effects of education on wages, and the wage penalty from the incidence of overeducation in the Vietnamese labor market during 2004–2016. This study employs a pseudo-panel approach to address omitted variables bias and the unconditional quantile regression to identify the heterogeneity of returns to education across the income distribution. Our main finding indicates that the estimated rate of returns to education in Vietnam is approximately 6.5%, showing a downward bias from previous estimates. The returns vary across wage distributions, where a lower rate of return is observed in lower quantiles and a higher rate among those individuals at the higher quantiles. The returns to education have declined since 2008, confirming the oversupply of highly educated workers in the Vietnamese labor market with an estimated wage penalty of 17%. Government assistance measures are needed to reduce the overeducation and the wage penalty issues in the Vietnamese labor market.     

Child labor and schooling responses to anticipated income in South Africa

Forward looking, unconstrained households make child labor and schooling decisions considering their permanent income and weighing the relative returns to child time in various potential activities. The timing of anticipated changes in income should have no effect on child labor and schooling in a setting where households can borrow against permanent income. However, this study documents large increases in schooling attendance and declines in total hours worked when black South African families become eligible for fully anticipatable social pension income. As an explanation, the data are most consistent with liquidity constraints for black elder males forcing rural families into less schooling for boys than they would choose absent the constraint, perhaps because of schooling costs.     

Does a foreign degree pay? The return to foreign education in China

A large body of literature is devoted to estimating causal effects of schooling; however, few studies have addressed the returns on education overseas. In this paper, we focus on the causal impact of holding a foreign education degree on one's performance in the homeland labor market in the context of China, the world's leading source of students pursuing education overseas. To address the issue of endogeneity, we construct an instrumental variable based on the exchange rate when the individual is about to make further education plans to isolate the arguably exogenous cost‐side shocks to one's education decision. Utilizing data from the China Household Financial Survey, we find that holding a foreign education degree has no effect on one's propensity to join the labor market but leads to a 108.95% increase in one's wage upon employment. Moreover, such effects display significant heterogeneity among returnees regarding their background. Specifically, returnees earn less if they went abroad after China joined the WTO, work in public sectors or have rich family resources.