内生增长、政府生产性支出与中国居民消费

中国财政支出的较大一部分用于生产建设,中国居民消费与政府生产性支出表现出稳健的正相关关系,这一事实与从标准的新古典和新凯恩斯模型得出的挤出效应截然不同。本文构建了包含存量和流量两部分政府生产性支出的内生增长模型,研究表明,政府支出增加在提高税负、挤出居民消费的同时,也通过其生产性增加收入、挤入居民消费;政府支出增加究竟挤入还是挤出居民消费取决于两种效应的比较以及政府的生产性支出比重和税负水平。政府生产性支出的最优结构等于其相对生产性之比,政府支出的最优规模等于政府支出的生产性。     

Variety of products,public capital,and endogenous growth

This paper develops an extension of the endogenous growth model with variety expansion presented in Romer [Romer, P.M., 1990. Endogenous technical change, Journal of Political Economy 98, part 2, S71–S102] by considering public capital accumulation. Characterizing the transitional dynamics, the growth rate of consumption traces (and available number of intermediate goods also might trace) an S-shaped converging path to the equilibrium growth rate, similar to a logistic growth curve, if the intensity of public capital is sufficiently high. We also show that public investment enhances economic growth because it stimulates demand for intermediate goods and raises the market interest rate.     

Ramsey fiscal policy and endogenous growth

This paper examines the effects of fiscal policies on capital accumulation and economic performance in a simple endogenous growth model with elastic labor supply by focusing on the implementability of a competitive equilibrium with productive public spending and distortionary taxation. Given a feasible exogenous fiscal policy, productive public spending can, at first, lead to positive short-run and long-run growth in the unique competitive equilibrium. However, although strictly positive growth is possible in the short run, a Ramsey policy with productive public spending does not implement positive capital accumulation in the long run. Also, the local indeterminacy of Ramsey allocations, in conjunction with the global multiplicity, arises as an implementable competitive equilibrium with Ramsey policies: namely, a continuum of transitional dynamics and multiple balanced growth paths. I am grateful to Kazuo Nishimura, Theodore Palivos, Sang Hee Won, John Conlon, Apostolis Philippopoulos, Arved Ashby, In Ho Lee, Katsuaki Terasawa, and an anonymous referee of this journal for valuable comments and suggestions. I also thank seminar participants at Ioannina University, Kyoto University, University of Mississippi, and Seoul National University. This paper is supported by 2006 Sabbatical Project, Kyung Hee University.     

Superneutrality, indeterminacy and endogenous growth

In this paper, we explore the possibility of having money as a source of indeterminacy in endogenous growth models. We adopt the simple Ak model of endogenous growth to be the main analytical vehicle whose balanced growth paths do not display local indeterminacy. Money is introduced via either a general cash-in-advance (CIA) constraint or a pecuniary transactions costs (PTC) technology. It is shown that local indeterminacy of the dynamics is due to the presence of an intertemporal substitution effect on capital accumulation that works against and dominates the conventional inflation effect of Tobin [1965, Money and economical growth. Econometrica 33(4), Part 2, 671]. If money is growth-rate superneutral, then the intertemporal substitution effect is absent so that local indeterminacy cannot occur. Finally, the strength of the intertemporal substitution effect depends positively on the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in consumption.     

Evidence of public capital spillovers and endogenous growth in Taiwan

This study reaffirms the empirical evidence of public capital spillovers and endogenous growth by using data for the period 1966Q3–2012Q3 in Taiwan. Avoiding the use of a 100% depreciation rate for generating public and private capital stock series that is applied in some related studies, this study estimates these series by using disaggregate data of various investment assets and applying their individual depreciation rates, as calculated by Jorgenson and Stiroh (2000). The results show that, first, (per capita) output, private capital stock, and public capital stock cointegrated in the sample period. Second, the contribution of private capital to output is 50% higher than that of public capital. Third, in the presence of significant and sizeable public capital spillover effects, growth in Taiwan is strictly endogenous. Finally, the dynamic model with a cointegration equation helps in studying some sensible short-run properties of the model and bi-directional effects among variables.     

Growth, welfare and transitional dynamics in an endogenously growing economy with abatement labor

This paper sets up a simple endogenous growth model that highlights the importance of the endogenous labor-leisure choice and the allocation between production labor and abatement labor. We show that, in contrast to the common notion (e.g. [Bovenberg, A.L., Smulders, S., 1996. Transitional impacts of environmental policy in an endogenous growth model. International Economic Review 37, 861–893] and [Bovenberg, A.L., de Mooij, R.A., 1997. Environmental tax reform and endogenous growth. Journal of Public Economics 63, 207–237]), the existence of an environmental production externality is a sufficient (but not necessary) condition for environmental policies to stimulate economic growth if the labor-leisure choice is endogenously determined. In particular, since there are complementarities between public abatement and private abatement, the public abatement expenditure will have a more powerful enhancing effect on economic growth when it is accompanied by more efficient private abatement. This result also leads to a corollary to the effect that it is easier to achieve double dividends in terms of enhancing both growth and welfare if the endogenous labor-leisure choice is taken into account.In our dynamic analysis, we show that if public abatement is substantially large, dynamic indeterminacy may occur despite the absence of a positive labor externality and interestingly, this is more likely to be the case when abatement labor plays a more significant role. Besides, the transitional effects of an increase in public abatement are also investigated.     

Disutility of pollution and endogenous growth

Endogenous growth is generally built on a positive externality hypothesis which is the opposite of a negative externality caused by pollution. We study a linear technology with simple assumption: an aggregate capital stock which represents a learning by doing effect and a pollution flow proportional to production. In this framework, we analyse the precise effects on growth of the disutility of pollution and its interaction with the utility of consumption in an economy without abatement technology. The decentralized equilibrium always leads to unlimited growth, but optimal growth is often limited (the negative effect of pollution dominating the positive effect of learning by doing). In this case, the optimal policy which leads the decentralized economy to follow the optimal growth path is to tax capital; in contrast with the optimal subsidy policy in an economy without pollution. When an abatement technology is introduced, the optimal solution can lead the economy to unlimited growth, whatever the form of the utility function.     

Fiscal policy, long‐run growth, and welfare in a stock‐flow model of public goods

Abstract.  We introduce public capital and public services as inputs in an endogenous growth model. We show that the growth rate depends on the apportionment of tax revenues between the accumulation of public capital and the provision of public services. When public spending is financed by proportional income taxes, the growth rate, the level of public spending as a proportion of GDP, the level of investment in public capital as a proportion of total public spending, and the level of private investment as a proportion of total private spending all are lower in the equilibrium outcome than in the optimal outcome. JEL classification: E62, O40     

Public Debt,Productive Public Spending and Endogenous Growth

We analyse the effects of public debt in a basic endogenous growth model with productive public spending. We demonstrate that a discretionary policy in general violates the intertemporal government budget constraint along a balanced growth path. A balanced government budget gives a unique saddle point stable growth path. With a rule‐based policy, two saddle point stable balanced growth paths can occur, depending on the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of consumption and on the primary surplus policy. Higher debt goes along with smaller long‐run growth and we derive a condition such that a deficit‐financed increase in public spending raises the growth rate.     

Polluting Non-Renewable Resources and Growth

In an endogenous growth model with human capital accumulation, we introduce non-renewable resources which cause flow pollution problems. In this set-up the negative external effect of pollution on productivity does not cause any distortions in the economy: The market economy will achieve the optimal extraction and growth rates. Consequently, emission taxes are unnecessary and, when introduced, will have no effect on the economy. The more important is the negative pollution externality, the larger will be the optimal long-run growth rate (which may be either positive or negative). In the case of a positive human capital externality, consumption in the market economy may approach zero in the long run, although positive consumption growth is socially optimal. Growth-enhancing policies do not necessarily cause a larger drain in the resource stock.     

The spillover effects of innovative ideas on human capital

This paper extends a two‐period overlapping generations model of endogenous growth where the interactions between public infrastructure and human capital with research and development (R&D) activities and growth are studied. The paper makes two important contributions. First, it accounts for the spillover effect of the stock of ideas on learning, which in turn promotes the production of innovative technologies. In doing so, it brings to the fore a two‐way interaction between human capital and innovation. The paper then applies various econometric methods which confirm the above theoretical thesis. Second, the solutions of the model emphasize the important role public spending on infrastructure, human capital and R&D can play in promoting economic growth. However, the findings also show that trade‐offs in the allocation of public spending may inevitably emerge. In particular, investment in public infrastructure at the expense of spending on R&D is less likely to succeed in promoting economic growth, whereas it may be more effective to foster growth through an offsetting cut in another productive component, namely, education. In light of these potential trade‐offs, governments in low‐income countries need to use their limited budgets as part of holistic measures in order to achieve efficient outcomes.     

On Indeterminacy and Growth under Progressive Taxation and Utility‐Generating Government Spending

We examine the theoretical interrelations between progressive income taxation and macroeconomic (in)stability in an otherwise standard one‐sector AK model of endogenous growth with utility‐generating government purchases of goods and services. In sharp contrast to traditional Keynesian‐type stabilization policies, progressive taxation operates like an automatic destabilizer that generates equilibrium indeterminacy and belief‐driven fluctuations in our endogenously growing macroeconomy. Unlike the no‐sustained‐growth counterpart, this instability result is obtained regardless of (i) the degree of the public‐spending preference externality and (ii) whether private and public consumption expenditures are substitutes, complements or additively separable in the household's utility function.     

Fiscal policies,frictional labor market,and endogenous growth

This paper considers the spillover effects from public spending, and studies optimal fiscal policies in frictional labor markets. We obtain that the optimal shares of government spending in production and consumption are the same as those in a frictionless labor market under the Hosios condition. However, as higher capital accumulation increases the cost of job creation and maintenance, the optimal tax rate of capital income is positive. In addition, when the labor market is frictional, the marginal benefit of labor is larger than the marginal utility of leisure. Thus, consumption and labor should not be taxed uniformly any more. Our calibration suggests that all of the three tax rates should be positive. Moreover, in the situation in which the Hosios condition does not hold, the shares of public productive spending and public consumption both increase when the worker’s bargaining power is greater than the elasticity of search in the matching function.     

Constant-returns endogenous growth with pollution control

Pollution control with positive externality from the government is incorporated in an endogenous growth model with AK production function. The result indicate that if consumption and abatement expenditure grows at a constant rate, pollution stock will have smaller growth rate. The growth rate of consumption in a command economy will in general be greater than in a competitive economy. A greater intertemporal elasticity of substitution will result in a lower growth rate only if the household's preference parameter against pollution is sufficiently small. The development strategy of pursuing higher growth rate accompanied by more pollution in the early stage of economic development is economically justifiable. The utility in a wealthier economy is always higher in all stages of development than in a poorer economy, as is the pollution stock, although it may converge in the steady state.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, December 6–10, 1993, Perth, Australia. Constructive comments and suggestions from two anonymous reviewers of this journal are greatly appreciated, and so is the financial support from the Bureau of Industrial Development in Taiwan.     

我国人力资本投资对经济增长的贡献

本文在对人力资本与经济增长的文献综述的基础上,利用我国统计年鉴中有关经济、教育数据计算我国人力资本存量与物质资本存量,并利用有效劳动模型和人力资本外部性模型,估计我国人力资本对经济增长的贡献,发现在我国经济增长过程中,物质资本存量的作用更为关键,而且人力资本投资对经济增长的外部性作用明显。     

Public capital formation and labor productivity growth in Chile

Following the lead of the endogenous growth literature, this article analyzes the impact on labor productivity growth of public and private investment spending in Chile. Using cointegration analysis, the results of the dynamic labor productivity function for the 1960–95 period show that (lagged) public and private investment spending, as well as the rate of growth in exports, has a positive and highly significant effect on the rate of labor productivity growth. The estimates also indicate that increases in government consumption spending have a negative effect on the rate of labor productivity growth, thus suggesting that the composition of government spending may also play an important role in determining the rate of labor productivity growth. The findings call into question the politically expedient policy in many Latin American countries of disproportionately reducing public capital expenditures to meet targeted reductions in the fiscal deficit as a proportion of GDP.     

Externalities of investment and endogenous growth: theory and time series evidence

In the paper we present and estimate an endogenous growth model in which sustained per capita growth is the result of positive externalities of investment in physical capital. In contrast to the usual assumption that investment raises physical capital and, as a byproduct, a stock of knowledge one for one, we suppose a different framework. So, we treat physical and human capital as two distinct variables and underline the importance of the stock of knowledge per physical capital as to the growth performance of countries. Estimation of that model for France, Germany and Japan shows that it is compatible with empirical data. For Great Britain the model performs poor and for the USA it does not produce reasonable outcomes at all. One conclusion we draw from our studies is that an endogenous growth model with positive externalities of investment is of empirical relevance. However, the growth process is also determined by country specific factors such that cross-countries studies should be considered with some care.     

Human capital distribution, growth and convergence

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between distribution and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations model with accumulation of human and physical capital. It is shown how human capital can determine a relationship between per capita growth rates and inequality in the distribution of income. Family background effects and spillovers in the transmission of human capital generate dynamics in which aggregate variables depend not only on the stock, but also on the distribution of human capital. The evolution of this distribution over time is then characterized under different assumptions on private returns and the form of the externality in the technology for human capital. Conditions for existence, uniqueness and stability of a constant growth equilibrium with a stationary distribution are derived. Increasing returns, idiosyncratic abilities and the possibility of poverty traps are explicitely characterized in a closed form solution of the equilibrium dynamics, showing the role played by technology and preferences parameters.     

China's Fiscal Decentralization and Regional Economic Growth

The present paper applies Lucas's theory of endogenous growth and Stiglitz's theory of local public goods to build an econometric model consisting of five simultaneous equations to study China's fiscal decentralization effects on regional economic growth. The model is estimated by two‐stage least squares using a set of panel data on 31 Chinese provinces during 1996–2005. The estimated results show that China's fiscal decentralization increased the local governments' expenditure on physical infrastructure and education, which led to the rising local physical capital stock and human capital levels, respectively, and then resulted in the growth of regional economies.     

Infrastructure Investment and Maintenance Expenditure: Optimal Allocation Rules in a Growing Economy

This paper studies the allocation of public expenditure between infrastructure investment and maintenance in an endogenous growth framework. In the basic model, maintenance spending affects both the durability and efficiency of public capital. The balanced growth path is derived and transitional dynamics associated with a revenue-neutral increase in expenditure on maintenance are analyzed. The model is then extended to account for the possibility that public spending on maintenance affects also the durability of private capital. The growth-maximizing tax rate and share of infrastructure investment are calculated in both cases. First- and second-best welfare-maximizing solutions are also discussed.