缴费年限对养老保险基金支付风险的影响研究

缴费年限直接影响着养老保险基金的缴费积累与参保者的待遇水平。能够领取养老金的缴费年限由最低缴费年限和退休年龄框定,参保者在缴费年限上具有较大的自主选择权。本文根据城镇职工基本养老保险现行制度设计,运用保险精算方法,构建了基金支付风险精算模型,并依据该模型实证评估了缴费年限对养老保险基金支付风险的影响。研究结果表明:单方面提高最低缴费年限并不能降低基金支付风险,根本原因在于“长缴多得”的计发机制;退休年龄的延长确能降低基金的支付风险,“早缴费”、“长缴费”将是减少养老基金支付风险的重要举措,但需要辅之以最低缴费年限调整才能充分发挥延迟退休增收减支作用;同一退休年龄下,女性比男性获益程度更高,相应地对实现缴费与待遇平衡产生更大的负效应;缴费年限增加能够提高替代率,增强制度的保障功能;缴费比例降低以及退休后平均余命、城镇单位就业人员平均工资增长率、养老金增长率、个人账户记账利率以及平均缴费工资指数提高会增大基金支付风险。建议通过调整退休年龄辅之以最低缴费年限并进行参量调整以降低基金支付风险。     

风险态度与居民财富——来自中国微观调查的新探究

随着资本市场的快速发展,在风险资产回报率剧烈波动的现实背景下,考察居民风险态度关于财富的函数形式对于研究家庭资产配置和相关市场政策的福利影响有重要的意义。本文使用代表性家庭调查数据,首次通过构建绝对和相对风险态度的指标,系统分析了我国居民风险偏好与财富之间的关系。研究表明,居民的绝对风险厌恶系数是财富的减函数,相对风险厌恶系数是财富的增函数,从而拒绝了常用于经济学模型假设的常绝对风险厌恶(CARA)和常相对风险厌恶(CRRA)偏好。进一步,我们发现背景风险可能是财富对风险态度的作用渠道之一,财富的变化改变了投资者面对的背景风险水平,继而改变其风险厌恶程度和对风险金融资产的投资。这意味着平抑经济过度波动等控制背景风险的政策将有助于提高居民金融市场参与的积极性。     

精算模型在确定给付养老金计划风险管理中的应用

养老基金的风险管理越来越多地受到各国的关注.捐纳金风险和偿付能力风险是确定给付(DB)养老金计划的主要风险,通过分析和评价确定型模型、随机模型和动态随机控制模型等三类精算模型在评估和控制DB计划风险中的作用,说明养老金计划的决策者能够利用精算模型逐年确定恰当的捐纳金并进行有效的风险管理.     

保险公司系统重要性识别及其影响因素研究——基于系统性风险敞口与贡献的视角

全球金融危机后,系统性风险是全球各级政府和监管部门以及金融业关注研究和应对的热点和重点。金融系统性风险的防范和管理是减贫脱贫、环保治理和系统风险防范化解三大攻坚战略之一,研究金融系统性风险,不仅具有重要的学术价值,更有迫切的现实意义。本文立足识别保险公司系统重要性,通过MES、SRISK、以及ΔCoVaR多维度测量中国保险公司的系统性风险敞口与贡献,甄别主要影响因素,并利用BP神经网络模拟非上市保险公司的风险溢出效应。研究发现:三种评估模型结果具有一致性,保险公司的杠杆率和非核心业务对其系统重要性有显著正效应;保险公司系统性风险敞口与贡献受金融危机和股市震荡明显。鉴于系统性风险有效防控是未来保险业防风险工作的重点,本文结合研究发现提出了对中国保险业系统性风险管理的建议。     

Are required SEC proxy disclosures about the board’s role in risk oversight substantive?

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) requires companies it regulates to include disclosures about the board’s role in risk oversight in the annual proxy statement to shareholders. The SEC does not mandate specific content or actions that boards should perform as part of their risk oversight responsibilities, leaving the nature of activities and extent of those disclosures to the discretion of the reporting entity. This study examines whether these disclosures contain substantive information reflective of the effectiveness of the organization’s risk oversight. We find that organizations disclosing more specific information (but not simply more information) about board risk oversight practices are associated with firms independently assessed as having the strongest management and governance processes. These findings suggest that these firms use the discretion provided by the SEC’s disclosure rule to provide substantive and potentially value-relevant information for stakeholders about the entity’s risk management processes and board risk oversight activities.     

Household adoption of smog protective behavior: a comparison between two Chinese cities

This study compares residents of two Chinese cities – one with a high risk and one with a low risk of air pollution, in terms of their smog experience, reliance on smog information sources, risk perception, attribution of responsibility and intention for adoption of protective behavior regarding smog. The results indicate that the two cities differ considerably in their smog experience, somewhat less so in reliance on smog information sources and risk perception, and very little in protective behavior. Using multiple regression analyses, the study revealed a basic chain of reaction in which demographic characteristics and location cause smog experience and smog information, smog experience and smog information cause risk perception, risk perception causes attribution of responsibility, and attribution of responsibility causes intention to adopt protective behavior. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed and recommendations for further research are suggested.     

中国系统重要性银行的市场识别法有效性研究

宏观审慎监管需要识别出系统重要性机构（SIFIs），目前已有相关研究，但还没有就如何有效识别达成共识。首先阐述MES法、SRISK法和CoVaR法三个主流的市场识别法原理与计算，在统一的DCC-GARCH模型相关性分析框架中，对它们做了理论比较。然后，以中国上市银行为样本，收集市场交易数据，用DCC-GARCH模型拟合相关结构，分别进行了中国SIFIs识别，根据各指标的理论特征分析了各系统重要性排序结果的有效性及其经济意义。     

Assessing business risk: The case of Premier Punch, Inc

The recently issued Statement on Auditing Standards No. 109, Understanding the Entity and Its Environment and Assessing the Risks of Material Misstatement, emphasizes the need for auditors to understand the client’s business and environment, particularly the client’s business risk [American Institute of Certified Public Accountants (AICPA) (2006a), understanding the entity and its environment and assessing the risks of material misstatement, Statement on Auditing Standards No. 109. New York, NY: AICPA]. However, the manner in which auditors obtain such an understanding, especially an auditor’s assessment of a client’s business risk, is often challenging for students because they lack the business experience necessary to perform such an assessment. This case provides students with an opportunity to assess business risk in a realistic context that includes evidence beyond the content of the financial statements. Company information is provided via a webpage (www.premierpunch.com) with content similar to that of an actual investor relations site. Students must evaluate the information presented in the company’s annual report, press releases and other sources, and consider the impact of that information on several facets of business risk. Students also perform an analytical review of the company’s financial statements and synthesize the case information into a professional memo containing their assessment of business risk.     

Is PIN priced risk?

Several recent papers assume that private information (PIN), proposed by Easley et al. [2002. Is information risk a determinant of asset returns? Journal of Finance 57, 2185–2221; 2004. Factoring information into returns. Working Paper, Cornell University], is a determinant of stock returns. We replicate Easley et al. (2002) and show that while PIN does predict future returns in the sample they analyze, the effect is not robust to alternative specifications and time periods. There is no evidence that PIN factor loadings predict returns or that PIN factor returns reflect future GDP growth. PIN exhibits no association with implied cost of capital derived from analysts’ earnings forecasts. Overall, our findings cast doubt on whether PIN reflects information risk systematically priced by investors.     

Enterprise risk management and firm performance: The Italian case

This paper investigates whether a relationship exists between the extent of implementation of enterprise risk management (ERM) systems and the performance of Italian listed companies. While many contributions in the literature focus on the determinants of ERM adoption and use one-dimensional feature to proxy for ERM implementation, we detect the consequences of ERM implementation and capture a variety of features to measure the sophistication of the ERM system. The results show that firms with advanced levels of ERM implementation present higher performance, both as financial performance and market evaluation. Additional tests also corroborate the expectation that effective ERM systems lead to higher performance by reducing risk exposure and that reverse causality between ERM and performance is not present in the short term. The study provides a twofold contribution to the ERM literature. First, it introduces new and more complete measures for ERM implementation, concerning not only corporate governance bodies dedicated to risk management, but also the characteristics of the risk assessment process. Moreover, it provides evidence of a positive relationship between ERM implementation and firm performance in an under-investigated context such as Italy.     

The disclosure of risk in financial statements

The accounting information currently issued by firms is not wholly adequate when used for decision making purposes, and within that process, for forecasting, for which additional information on risks is required. Therefore a reform of the current framework becomes necessary. Within this reform an adequate scheme and typology for the risks facing firms must be established and a set of specific risk quantification models must be designed. This paper focuses on both issues, showing all the risks that can affect firms and proposing a quantification model for each one.     

Is recovery risk priced?

Recovery risk to explain corporate debt premia has not received much attention so far, most likely due to the difficulties around decomposing the expected loss. We exploit the fact that differently-ranking debt instruments of the same issuer face identical default risk but different default-conditional recovery rates. This allows us to isolate implied recovery under the T-forward measure without any of the rigid assumptions employed by prior studies. We find a pronounced systematic component in recovery rates for which investors should receive a premium. Comparisons to physical realizations show that the premium is quite time-stable and similar for different debt seniorities.