The Theory of Fair Markets (TFM) toward a new finance paradigm

In this paper I offer the Theory of Fair Markets (TFM) as an alternative to the ubiquitous CAPM/EMH that has been ruling unabated academia's financial economics for the last four decades. According to the TFM what counts is whether society is better off with a market system which is carefully monitored and corrected by a democratically elected government and social, labor, and other laws that serve as its infrastructure than with the notion of laissez faire. Admittedly, the theory is in its infancy and as such it is subject to both evolutionary changes/modification and exploratory empirical research. Without a doubt, it is also subject to criticism. Nevertheless, I contend that the EMH should be scrutinized and abandoned, because it is a reality-retardant theory, falsely implying Pareto optimality.     

论金融统计中金融资产的分类调整

本文首先介绍了目前金融统计中金融资产的分类与建议财务会计中的金融资产分类．然后给出建议的金融统计中金融资产的分类调整结果,重点介绍了其中的各个金融资产类型,还针对金融资产流量核算、金融存量核算、金融市场统计等问题提出统一协调的建议。论文最后作了总结,展望了后续研究。     

基于利率角度的我国金融市场化改革风险与对策

一国金融体系的改革,都是以金融市场化为目标的.而利率作为衡量投资行为的价格成本,影响着金融市场交易活动的方方面面.因此,利率市场化是金融市场化改革过程的核心环节.通过分析以利率为核心的金融市场化发展趋势以及改革模式,找出利率市场化所产生的问题.着重研究利率市场化产生的金融风险以及对金融危机的诱导机理,进而完善利率市场化对货币政策的传导作用,并为维护我国利率市场化条件下的金融安全提供对策与建议.     

Measuring financial stress in a developed country: An application to Canada

This paper develops an index of financial stress for the Canadian financial system. It is a continuous variable with a spectrum of values, where extreme values are called financial crises. An internal Bank of Canada survey is used to condition the choice of variables. The authors show that alternative measures of financial crisis suggested by the literature do not accurately reflect the Canadian experience, while several measures developed in this paper are more representative and are thus likely better suited to a developed financial system. An accurate characterization of stress is a prerequisite for any researcher attempting to forecast financial crises.     

欧洲金融市场一体化进程中的金融中心研究

欧洲金融市场一体化目前已经达到了非常高的程度。对欧洲金融市场一体化进程中的金融中心的研究表明,金融市场一体化并不会导致欧洲只存在一个(或少数几个)金融中心,尽管欧洲金融中心体系内各层次金融中心的功能和作用有了调整,但欧洲多层次金融中心体系并没有因此而受到削弱。中国各区域之间同样正经历着一个金融市场日益融合的过程,因而欧洲的经验对于中国金融中心建设具有较强的借鉴意义。     

Variable selection and corporate bankruptcy forecasts

We investigate the relative importance of various bankruptcy predictors commonly used in the existing literature by applying a variable selection technique, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), to a comprehensive bankruptcy database. Over the 1980–2009 period, LASSO admits the majority of Campbell et al. (2008) predictive variables into the bankruptcy forecast model. Interestingly, by contrast with recent studies, some financial ratios constructed from only accounting data also contain significant incremental information about future default risk, and their importance relative to that of market-based variables in bankruptcy forecasts increases with prediction horizons. Moreover, LASSO-selected variables have superior out-of-sample predictive power and outperform (1) those advocated by Campbell et al. (2008) and (2) the distance to default from Merton’s (1974) structural model.