Early warning indicators and macro-prudential policies: a credit network agent based model

Credit network configurations play a crucial role in determining the vulnerability of the economic system. Following the network-based financial accelerator approach, we constructed an agent based model reproducing an artificial credit network that evolves endogenously according to the leverage choices of heterogeneous firms and banks. Thus, our work aims at defining both early warning indicators for crises and policy precautionary measures based on the endogenous credit network dynamics. The model is calibrated on a sample of firms and banks quoted in the Japanese stock-exchange markets from 1980 to 2012. Both empirical and simulated data suggest that credit and connectivity variations could be used as early warning measures for crises. Moreover, targeting banks that are central in the credit network in terms of size and connectivity, the capital-related macro-prudential policies may reduce systemic vulnerability without affecting aggregate output.     

商业银行国家助学贷款之风险分析

文章着重论述了国家助学贷款的信贷风险问题,指出国家助学贷款是一种财政贴息无担保的信用贷款,是一项公共政策;提出防范助学贷款的信贷风险,需要构建以国家征信体系为基础的社会诚信环境,完善全国性的个人征信信息系统,大力推广生源地贷款,创建助学贷款的风险管理系统。     

商业银行国家助学贷款之风险分析

文章着重论述了国家助学贷款的信贷风险问题,指出国家助学贷款是一种财政贴息无担保的信用贷款,是一项公共政策;提出防范助学贷款的信贷风险,需要构建以国家征信体系为基础的社会诚信环境,完善全国性的个人征信信息系统,大力推广生源地贷款,创建助学贷款的风险管理系统。     

Macroeconomic and financial stability in a monetary union: The case of Lithuania

In this paper, we study the implications of macroprudential policies in a monetary union for macroeconomic and financial stability. For this purpose, we develop a two-country monetary union new Keynesian general equilibrium model with housing and collateral constraints, to be calibrated for Lithuania and the rest of the euro area. We consider two different scenarios for macroprudential policies: one in which the ECB extends its goals to also include financial stability and a second one in which a national macroprudential authority uses the loan-to-value ratio (LTV) as an instrument. The results show that both rules are effective in making the financial system more stable in both countries, and especially in Lithuania. This is because the financial sector in this country is more sensitive to shocks. We find that an extended Taylor rule is indeed effective in reducing the volatility of credit, but comes with a cost in terms of higher inflation volatility. The simple LTV rule, on the other hand, does not compromise the objective of monetary policy. This reinforces the “Tinbergen principle”, which argues that there should be two different instruments when there are two different policy goals.     

网络舆情发展规律与处理研究

当前,我国正处于转型时期,网络舆情缺乏有效的监管,使得各种言论、思想充斥网络,导致信息不对称的普通民众极易受到一些偏激言论的吸引而忽略了真正的事实真相,引发更多的社会矛盾和冲突。因此如何构建起高效的网络舆情处理机制对于更好的利用网络舆情反映现实民意、缓和社会矛盾、维护社会稳定有着重要的意义。     

Firm entry, credit availability and monetary policy

This paper presents a dynamic general equilibrium model that incorporates firm entry under credit rationing. Goods-producing firms in this model are bank dependent in the sense that they have no choice but to borrow funds from banks to cover labor wages that must be paid in advance of production. The results show that a cut in the policy rate enhances firm entry by mitigating the severity of credit rationing. This policy transmission is different from the conventional balance sheet channel in that a change in the policy rate directly affects borrowers' credit availability. I also show that a sudden stop in the credit supply to new firms is most likely to occur shortly after a credit boom. This is because endogenous downward wage rigidity prohibits the credit risk of prospective firms from decreasing enough to re-equilibrate the loan market.     

MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICIES INTERACTION IN MONETARY UNIONS

In this paper, the literature on the interaction between monetary and fiscal policies in a monetary union is surveyed. By adopting the concept of symbiosis as a starting point, the paper highlights the importance of uncertainty, policy makers' preferences and targets. Then, the role of commitment to policy rules and coordination is addressed. The analysis also focuses on the importance of the data considered for the generation of the policy mix. As a final step, the paper discusses the main results in the literature on public debt management in a monetary union. All the reported theoretical results are then adopted to retrieve policy and institutional implications for the European Monetary Union.     

政策网络的结构与治理:以我国房地产宏观调控政策为例

房地产的宏观调控是我国政府公共管理能力的核心体现,然而,近年来其调控效果并不显著.作为一种新兴的分析工具--政策网络能较好地掌握与处理多元角色参与公共政策制定的议题.因此,本文从政策网络的视角,通过理论研究和案例分析,探讨房地产政策网络的结构特征及其治理机制.研究发现:我国房地产宏观调控的困境关键在于政策网络的开放度太...     

组建统一农村商业银行是广西农村合作金融机构发展的必然趋势——借鉴台湾地区信用合作社和农会信用部发展经验

自2003年农村信用社改革试点后,我国农村合作金融机构取得了瞩目成就,但在今后10年经济转型期我国进一步深化农村合作金融机构体制改革仍在不断探索.文章以广西为例,借鉴台湾地区信用合作社及农业金库与农会信用部的发展经验,对农村合作金融机构新一轮体制改革进行探讨     

信贷渠道在我国货币政策传导中的现状

根据货币政策传导理论,银行信贷渠道和资产负债表渠道是货币政策信贷传导的主要方式。从2003年开始,我国中央银行连续采取紧缩性的货币政策。文中介绍了此轮货币政策的信贷传导现状,指出现阶段我国货币政策的信贷传导仍然存在梗阻,应加以疏通。     

Greece in the Eurozone: Lessons from a decade of experience

This study examines Greece's experience as a member of the Eurozone over the period 2002 to 2011. In evaluating the Greek experience within the Eurozone, we derive the following fundamental policy lessons that apply both to similar small peripheral EU countries that plan to enter the Eurozone, or any other economic union, and to the Eurozone itself in terms of facilitating their integration in a large monetary union. First, countries with inefficient public systems must re-engineer and restructure the decision making process in the public sector before they become members of an economic union. Second, countries must generate a friendly environment toward business and provide (a) a simple, stable tax system, (b) an effective and efficient justice system, and (c) a high quality educational system. Third, the living standards of the people are determined by the productivity and competitiveness of the economy and not by an inefficient and overspending public sector. Fourth, structural funds should be used to improve the competitiveness of the economy, not serve the political clientele of the party in power. Fifth, the admission requirements to an economic union must be strict and these requirements must be enforced. Sixth, capital market investors must always differentiate default risk within the country-members of a monetary union.     

Lessons from management–union partnership in teacher performance appraisal in the New South Wales public education system

Performance appraisal is frequently seen as one of the hallmarks of the ‘new managerialism’ in public sector human resource management. It is also commonly represented as a device for individualizing the employment relationship. Yet even appraisal offers scope for employee voice/participation, both individually and collectively, and for varying degrees of management–union cooperation. This study examines an unlikely case of management–union partnership in performance appraisal – that applied since 2000 to teachers in Australia's largest public schooling bureaucracy, the NSW Department of Education and Training, whose teachers have a long history of union solidarity and industrial militancy. The experiment can be seen as a union retreat from confrontationism, a concession to managerialism, and a resignation to the dominance of individualism over collectivism. However, we argue that it has also widened the scope for both union and employee voice at workplace level.     

Robustness of banking networks to idiosyncratic and systemic shocks: a network-based approach

We propose a network-based structural model of credit risk to demonstrate how idiosyncratic and systemic shocks propagate across the banking system and evaluate the costs. The banking system is built as a network of heterogeneous banks which are connected with one another. In such a system, single credit events propagate through the interbank market from debtors to creditors and across the system. The shock is imposed as an unexpected event. We demonstrate that while idiosyncratic shocks cannot substantially disturb the banking system, a systemic shock of even a moderate magnitude can be highly detrimental. Such shock includes a huge contagious potential. We demonstrate that the costs of the shock are largely determined by the extent of contagion and range from negligible to catastrophic. The results imply that a severe crisis has to be initiated by a systemic shock of at least moderate magnitude. Capital ratio and the bank size are two additional factors of the banking system stability. Finally, credit risk analysis is sensitive to the network topology and exhibits a profound nonlinear characteristic.     

Economies of diversification in the US credit union sector

Significant scale economies have been recently cited to rationalize a dramatic growth in the US retail credit union sector over the past few decades. In this paper, we explore another plausible supply‐side explanation for the growth of the industry, namely economies of diversification. We focus on the fact that credit unions differ among themselves in the range of financial services they offer to their members. Since larger credit unions tend to offer a more diversified financial service menu than credit unions of a smaller size, the incentive to grow in size may be fueled not only by present scale economies but also by economies of diversification. This paper provides the first robust estimates of such economies of diversification for the credit union sector. We estimate a flexible semiparametric smooth coefficient quantile panel data model with correlated effects that is capable of accommodating a four‐way heterogeneity among credit unions. Our results indicate the presence of non‐negligible economies of diversification in the industry. We find that as many as 27–91% (depending on the type and the cost quantile) of diversified credit unions enjoy substantial economies of diversification; the cost of most remaining credit unions is invariant to the scope of services. We also find overwhelming evidence of increasing returns to scale in the industry.     

电子货币对货币政策的冲击——供给和需求层面的分析

随着网络技术的持续发展,消费者购物行为与支付方式亦随之改变,如信用卡、电子现金与电子支票等支付工具的蓬勃发展,无现金社会环境衍然已成趋势。电子货币乃因应电子支付系统之发展,以及消费者支持各类创新支付工具下所产生。本文主要从供给和需求两个层面来探讨电子货币出现情况下央行货币政策所受到的冲击。     

Deposit rate sensitivity of credit union shares

This study examines the factors that are related to the growth of credit union liabilities. We use individual credit union data on deposit categories and their associated interest rates to measure the effect of interest rate changes on the growth rates of total shares and five of its subcomponents. After controlling for credit union size, previous growth, and market interest rates, we find that while total share growth is related to individual credit union regular share and money market rates, it is most affected by share certificate rates. With the exception of share drafts, the growth in other deposit categories is significantly affected by the interest rate a credit union offers for those particular accounts. Finally, we provide evidence that, in general, the growth rate of a deposit category is negatively related to interest rates offered on other types of accounts.

Political and Institutional Determinants of Credit Booms

The literature that investigates credit booms has essentially focused on their economic determinants. This paper explores the importance of political conditionings and central bank independence and provides some striking findings on this matter. Estimating a fixed effects logit model over a panel of developed and developing countries for the period 1975q1–2016q4, we find that credit booms are less likely when right‐wing parties are in office, especially in developing countries, and when there is political instability. However, they have not proven to depend on the electoral cycle. More independent Central Banks are also found to reduce the probability of credit booms. Moreover, they seem to be more likely to occur and spread within a monetary union.     

The Structure and Growth of the Credit Union Industry in the United states: Meeting Challenges of the Market

A bstract . Credit Unions in the United States have grown significantly in recent years. This paper identifies and analyzes the unique characteristics of the credit union industry contributing to this growth. The consolidation of smaller institutions and product diversification among larger credit unions in the environment of financial deregulation in recent years has resulted in enhanced services for credit union members. The industry is expected to continue its growth in membership and assets relative to other depository intermediaries.     

四大创新开创农村信用社思想政治工作新局面

思想政治工作是企业凝聚人心、稳健经营、稳步发展的生命线.新时期、新形势下,农村信用社点多、面广、线长、人员结构复杂、管理难度大,信用社应与时俱进,开拓创新,善于多层次、多角度、全方位做好员工思想工作.博白县农村信用合作联社在改革发展过程中从4个不同角度采取应对策略,为各项经营业务稳健快速发展营造和谐稳定的企业文化氛围     

Slowdown of credit flows in Jordan in the wake of the global financial crisis: Supply or demand driven?

This paper estimates a disequilibrium model of credit supply and demand to evaluate the relative role of these factors in the slowdown of credit flows in the Jordanian economy in the wake of the global financial crisis. The empirical analysis suggests that the credit stagnation is mainly driven by the restricted credit supply amid tighter monetary policy conditions in Jordan relative to the United States, as evidenced by the widened interest differential between the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) re-discount and the U.S. Federal Reserve funds rates. Although it appears that demand side factors related to the slowdown of economic activity have also had an impact, their role has been relatively modest. The estimation results imply that economic policies targeted towards stimulating the supply of credit are likely to be a more effective tool for expanding credit flows relative to demand stimulating policies.