There's more to volatility than volume

It is widely believed that fluctuations in transaction volume, as reflected in the number of transactions and to a lesser extent their size, are the main cause of clustered volatility. Under this view bursts of rapid or slow price diffusion reflect bursts of frequent or less frequent trading, which cause both clustered volatility and heavy tails in price returns. We investigate this hypothesis using tick by tick data from the New York and London Stock Exchanges and show that only a small fraction of volatility fluctuations are explained in this manner. Clustered volatility is still very strong even if price changes are recorded on intervals in which the total transaction volume or number of transactions is held constant. In addition the distribution of price returns conditioned on volume or transaction frequency being held constant is similar to that in real time, making it clear that neither of these are the principal cause of heavy tails in price returns. We analyse recent results of Ane and Geman (2000 Ane, T and Geman, H. 2000. Order flow, transaction clock, and normality of asset returns. J. Finance, 55(5): 2259–2284. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]: J. Finance, 55, 2259–2284) and Gabaix et al. (2003 Gabaix, X, Gopikrishnan, P, Plerou, V and Stanley, H.E. 2003. A theory of power-law distributions in financial market fluctuations. Nature, 423: 267–270. [Crossref], [PubMed], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]: Nature, 423, 267–270), and discuss the reasons why their conclusions differ from ours. Based on a cross-sectional analysis we show that the long-memory of volatility is dominated by factors other than transaction frequency or total trading volume.     

A note on the valuation of asset management firms

Market capitalization relative to assets under management is often used to value asset management firms. Huberman’s (2004) dividend discount model implies that cross-sectional variations in this metric are explained by cross-sectional differences in operating margins, and yet we find no evidence of this in our data set. We show that a superior model—inspired by the work of Berk and Green (2004)—includes also the level of fees as an explanatory variable. This approach dramatically increases the fit of our valuation model and casts doubt on the relevance of the so-called Huberman puzzle.     

Tukey’s transformational ladder for portfolio management

Over the past half-century, the empirical finance community has produced vast literature on the advantages of the equally weighted Standard and Poor (S&P 500) portfolio as well as the often overlooked disadvantages of the market capitalization weighted S&P 500’s portfolio (see Bloomfield et al. in J Financ Econ 5:201–218, 1977; DeMiguel et al. in Rev Financ Stud 22(5):1915–1953, 2009; Jacobs et al. in J Financ Mark 19:62–85, 2014; Treynor in Financ Anal J 61(5):65–69, 2005). However, portfolio allocation based on Tukey’s transformational ladder has, rather surprisingly, remained absent from the literature. In this work, we consider the S&P 500 portfolio over the 1958–2015 time horizon weighted by Tukey’s transformational ladder (Tukey in Exploratory data analysis, Addison-Wesley, Boston, 1977): \(1/x^2,\,\, 1/x,\,\, 1/\sqrt{x},\,\, \text {log}(x),\,\, \sqrt{x},\,\, x,\,\, \text {and} \,\, x^2\), where x is defined as the market capitalization weighted S&P 500 portfolio. Accounting for dividends and transaction fees, we find that the 1/\(x^2\) weighting strategy produces cumulative returns that significantly dominate all other portfolio returns, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 18% over the 1958–2015 horizon. Our story is furthered by a startling phenomenon: both the cumulative and annual returns of the \(1/x^2\) weighting strategy are superior to those of the 1 / x weighting strategy, which are in turn superior to those of the \(1/\sqrt{x}\) weighted portfolio, and so forth, ending with the \(x^2\) transformation, whose cumulative returns are the lowest of the seven transformations of Tukey’s transformational ladder. The order of cumulative returns precisely follows that of Tukey’s transformational ladder. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to discover this phenomenon.     

An endogenous volatility approach to pricing and hedging call options with transaction costs

Standard delta hedging fails to exactly replicate a European call option in the presence of transaction costs. We study a pricing and hedging model similar to the delta hedging strategy with an endogenous volatility parameter for the calculation of delta over time. The endogenous volatility depends on both the transaction costs and the option strike prices. The optimal hedging volatility is calculated using the criterion of minimizing the weighted upside and downside replication errors. The endogenous volatility model with equal weights on the up and down replication errors yields an option premium close to the Leland [J. Finance, 1985 Leland, HE. 1985. Option pricing and replication with transaction costs. J. Finance, 40: 1283–1301. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], 40, 1283–1301] heuristic approach. The model with weights being the probabilities of the option's moneyness provides option prices closest to the actual prices. Option prices from the model are identical to the Black–Scholes option prices when transaction costs are zero. Data on S&P 500 index cash options from January to June 2008 illustrate the model.     

A BSDE approach to fair bilateral pricing under endogenous collateralization

Nie and Rutkowski (Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finance 18:1550048, 2015; Math. Finance, 2016, to appear) examined fair bilateral pricing in models with funding costs and an exogenously given collateral. The main goal of this work is to extend results from Nie and Rutkowski (Int. J. Theor. Appl. Finance 18:1550048, 2015; Math. Finance, 2016, to appear) to the case of an endogenous margin account depending on the contract’s value for the hedger and/or the counterparty. Comparison theorems for BSDEs from Nie and Rutkowski (Theory Probab. Appl., 2016, forthcoming) are used to derive bounds for unilateral prices and to study the range for fair bilateral prices in a general semimartingale model. The backward stochastic viability property, introduced by Buckdahn et al. (Probab. Theory Relat. Fields 116:485–504, 2000), is employed to examine the bounds for fair bilateral prices for European claims with a negotiated collateral in a diffusion-type model. We also generalize in several respects the option pricing results from Bergman (Rev. Financ. Stud. 8:475–500, 1995), Mercurio (Actuarial Sciences and Quantitative Finance, pp. 65–95, 2015) and Piterbarg (Risk 23(2):97–102, 2010) by considering contracts with cash-flow streams and allowing for idiosyncratic funding costs for risky assets.     

The scaling limit of superreplication prices with small transaction costs in the multivariate case

Kusuoka (Ann. Appl. Probab. 5:198–221, 1995) showed how to obtain non-trivial scaling limits of superreplication prices in discrete-time models of a single risky asset which is traded at properly scaled proportional transaction costs. This article extends the result to a multivariate setup where the investor can trade in several risky assets. The \(G\)-expectation describing the limiting price involves models with a volatility range around the frictionless scaling limit that depends not only on the transaction costs coefficients, but also on the chosen complete discrete-time reference model.     

Liquidity risk,price impacts and the replication problem

We extend a linear version of the liquidity risk model of Çetin et al. (Finance Stoch. 8:311–341, 2004) to allow for price impacts. We show that the impact of a market order on prices depends on the size of the transaction and the level of liquidity. We obtain a simple characterization of self-financing trading strategies and a sufficient condition for no arbitrage. We consider a stochastic volatility model in which the volatility is partly correlated with the liquidity process and show that, with the use of variance swaps, contingent claims whose payoffs depend on the value of the asset can be approximately replicated in this setting. The replicating costs of such payoffs are obtained from the solutions of BSDEs with quadratic growth, and analytical properties of these solutions are investigated.     

The Bank Lending Channel Transmission of Monetary Policy in the EMU: A Case Study of Portugal

Abstract

This paper confirms the importance of bank performance to the credit-lending channel of monetary policy in the countries of the EMU and particularly in Portugal during recent years. The paper’s main innovations are (1) its use of macro and microeconomic statistical data; (2) the introduction of three calculated bank-performance indicators—asset structure, conversion of clients’ resources into credits and financial margins—into an adaptation of the Bernanke and Binder model; and (3) the use of panel data estimations not only to demonstrate the importance of the bank lending channel, but also to analyse the effects of the calculated indicators in bank-lending growth.     

On Numerical Differentiation of Functions of Several Variables

In a previous paper ¹ This journal (1957), pp. 60-70; in the sequel it will be quoted as N. D. some results concerning numerical differentiation of functions of a single variable were obtained on the basis of the important investigation by W. Barrett ² ‘On the remainders of numerical formulae, with special reference to differentiation formulae’, Journ. Lond. Math. Soc., Vol. 27 (1952). , which involved, inter alia, a considerable simplification of the form of remainder-terms of various formulae for numerical differentiation. The object of the present paper will be an extension of the results obtained for functions of a single variable to functions of several variables in the case of a regular distribution of the points at which the functional values are supposed to be given.     

The leverage effect puzzle: the case of European sovereign credit default swap market

One of the stylized facts about the behaviour of time series is that their volatility exhibits asymmetrical responses to good and bad news. In the case of stock markets, volatility seems to rise when the stock price decreases and fall when the stock price increases. This so-called “leverage effect” was first described by Black (Proceedings of the 1976 meeting of the business and economic statistics section, pp 177–181, 1976). The concept is not new and has already been comprehensively studied and implemented in many volatility models (GARCH and SV) in the form of an additional parameter in the volatility equation. However, there is no study or a theoretical explanation of the leverage effect in sovereign credit default swap spreads (hereinafter: sCDS). In this article, we discuss the possible behaviour of sCDS volatility and explain it by way of reference to the Prospect Theory by Kahneman and Tversky (Econometrica 47(2):263–292, 1979). We estimate a series of stochastic volatility models with the leverage effect, proposed by Yu (J Econom 127(2):165–178, 2005). In this model, the “leverage effect” is, in fact, the same as a coefficient of the correlation between the current return of an asset and its expected future volatility. We show that the effect does exist and differs across markets. As far as the safe European markets are concerned, the parameter is negative; in the case of extremely risky economies—it is positive. In markets of medium risk the effect varies depending on the relationship between the perceived risk and the value of the sCDS premium.     

Investor relations,information asymmetry and market value

Evidence to date on the market value of investor relations (IR) strategies is limited. We test the market relevance of IR activity directly employing a proprietary database measuring IR quality across all firms listed on NYSE, Amex and NASDAQ. Although, in theory, ‘repackaging’ and communicating existing information should have no market impact, we find that firms with higher quality IR strategies are rewarded with significantly higher valuation multiples. In addition, increase in IR quality is associated with increases in analyst following and liquidity. Overall, our findings are generally stronger for small firms which are more likely to be ‘neglected’. Our evidence is consistent with effective IR successfully raising firm visibility leading to enhanced recognition and reduced information asymmetry in line with Merton (1987 Merton, R., 1987. A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. Journal of Finance, 42 (3), 483–510. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-6261.1987.tb04565.x[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and thus ‘fairer’ firm valuation as argued by IR professionals.     

How do agency problems affect firm value? – Evidence from China

Using newly available data, we examine the effects of the agency conflicts between ultimate controlling shareholders and minority shareholders in China's publicly listed firms between 2004 and 2009. We measure the severity of these agency problems by the excess control rights of the ultimate controlling shareholders. We show that higher excess control rights are associated with significantly lower firm value. We identify two channels through which the excess control rights affect firm value: (1) related-party loan guarantees, and (2) legal violations. We find that higher excess control rights are associated with significantly larger amounts of related-party loan guarantees (scaled by assets) for non-state and private firms, but not for state-owned firms. We find that, for non-state and private firms, the excess controls rights are associated with (1) significantly higher probability that the firm will issue value-destroying related-party loan guarantees and (2) significantly worse stock market reactions to the announcements of related-party loan guarantees. However, these results do not hold for state-owned firms. We also find that higher excess control rights are associated with significantly higher probability, frequency and severity of legal violations for non-state and private firms, but not for state-owned firms.     

Leveraged Lévy processes as models for stock prices

Adopting a constant elasticity of variance formulation in the context of a general Lévy process as the driving uncertainty we show that the presence of the leverage effect? ?One explanation of the documented negative relation between market volatilities and the level of asset prices (the ‘smile’ or ‘skew’), we term the ‘leverage effect’, argues that this negative relation reflects greater risk taking by the management, induced by a fall in the asset price, with a view of maximizing the option value of equity shareholders. in this form has the implication that asset price processes satisfy a scaling hypothesis. We develop forward partial integro-differential equations under a general Markovian setup, and show in two examples (both continuous and pure-jump Lévy) how to use them for option pricing when stock prices follow our leveraged Lévy processes. Using calibrated models we then show an example of simulation-based pricing and report on the adequacy of using leveraged Lévy models to value equity structured products.     

A four-factor stochastic volatility model of commodity prices

The number of factors driving the uncertain dynamics of commodity prices has been a central consideration in financial literature. While the majority of empirical studies relies on the assumption that up to three factors are sufficient to explain all relevant uncertainty inherent in commodity spot, futures, and option prices, evidence from Trolle and Schwartz (Rev Financ Stud 22(11):4423–4461, 2009b) and Hughen (J Futures Mark 30(2):101–133, 2010) indicates a need for additional risk factors. In this article, we propose a four-factor maximal affine stochastic volatility model that allows for three independent sources of risk in the futures term structure and an additional, potentially unspanned stochastic volatility process. The model principally integrates the insights from Hughen (2010) and Tang (Quant Finance 12(5):781–790, 2012) and nests many well-known models in the literature. It can account for several stylized facts associated with commodity dynamics such as mean reversion to a stochastic level, stochastic volatility in the convenience yield, a time-varying correlation structure, and time-varying risk-premia. In-sample and out-of-sample tests indicate a superior model fit to futures and options data as well as lower hedging errors compared to three-factor benchmark models. The results also indicate that three factors are not sufficient to model the joint dynamics of futures and option prices accurately.     

The Impact of IFRS 16 on Key Financial Ratios: A New Methodological Approach

In January 2016, the International Accounting Standards Board issued a new standard for lease accounting: International Financial Reporting Starndard (IFRS) 16. IFRS 16 will lead to the capitalisation of the majority of current operating leases by lessees. We analyse the impact of the new accounting model on entity’s key financial, contributing to research by making significant changes in the Imhoff et al. [(1991). Operating leases: Impact of constructive capitalization. Accounting Horizons, 5(1), 51–63. Retrieved from http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&;db=buh&;AN=9604010111&;site=ehost-live; (1997). Operating leases: Income effects of constructive capitalization. Accounting Horizons, 11(2), 12–32. Retrieved from http://0-search.proquest.com.fama.us.es/docview/208896121?accountid=14744] methodology used by previous authors. We change how the lease term is estimated (more aligned with the final approved standard), and how the discount rate is obtained. Furthermore, we use a more comprehensive sample (646 quoted European companies). In line with previous research we find important systematic impacts on key balance sheet financial ratios (mainly leverage ratios), on a magnitude that depends on the operating lease intensity of the sector in which the entity operates. Our estimated impact is generally higher than that obtained in previous studies. The most affected sectors are retail, hotels and transportation. We do not find a consistent result with regard to the effect on profitability ratios.     

International asset allocation using the market implied cost of capital

The Black and Litterman (Financ Anal J 48(5):28–43, 1992) (BL) approach to portfolio optimization requires investor views on expected asset returns as an input. I demonstrate that the market implied cost of capital (ICC) is ideal for quantifying those views on a country level. I benchmark this approach against a BL optimization using time-series models as investor views, the equally weighted portfolio, and allocation methods based on stock market capitalization and GDP. I find that the ICC portfolio offers an increase in average return of 2.1 percentage points (yearly) as compared to the value-weighted portfolio, while having a similar standard deviation. The resulting difference in Sharpe ratios is statistically significant and robust to the inclusion of transaction costs, varying BL parameters, and a less strictly defined investment universe.     

Turbo warrants under stochastic volatility

Turbo warrants have experienced huge growth since they first appeared in late 2001. In some European countries, buying and selling turbo warrants constitutes 50% of all derivative trading nowadays. In Asia, the Hong Kong Exchange and Clearing Limited (HKEx) introduced the callable bull/bear contracts, which are essentially turbo warrants, to the market in 2006. Turbo warrants are special types of barrier options in which the rebate is calculated as another exotic option. It is commonly believed that turbo warrants are less sensitive to the change in volatility of the underlying asset. Eriksson (2005 Eriksson, J. 2005. Explicit pricing formulas forturbo warrants. Uppsala Dissertation in Mathematics, 45 [Google Scholar]) has considered the pricing of turbo warrants under the Black–Scholes model. However, the pricing and characteristics of turbo warrants under stochastic volatility are not known. This paper investigates the valuation of turbo warrants considered by Eriksson (2005 Eriksson, J. 2005. Explicit pricing formulas forturbo warrants. Uppsala Dissertation in Mathematics, 45 [Google Scholar]), but extends the analysis to the CEV, the fast mean-reverting stochastic volatility and the two time-scale volatility models. We obtain analytical solutions for turbo warrants under the aforementioned models. This enables us to examine the sensitivity of turbo warrants to the implied volatility surface.     

The holdings markup behavior of mutual funds: evidence from an emerging market

This paper uncovers a seasonal mutual fund holdings markup pattern in Taiwan’s market. Specifically, we find that fund’s equity holdings jump up significantly at the quarter-ends and year-end while drop back immediately to the previous level in the following month. While the holdings markup pattern found in this paper may look similar to the price markup phenomenon found by Carhart et al. (J Finance 57:661–693, 2002), the mechanism used by fund managers in the performance inflation may be quite different. In specific, while Carhart et al. (J Finance 57:661–693, 2002) document that fund managers use the stocks currently held in their portfolio to mark up the fund performance, we find that fund managers in fact use both the stocks already held in their portfolio and the new stocks to mark up their holdings. Furthermore, Carhart et al. (J Finance 57:661–693, 2002) do not explicitly examine if there exists a holdings markup in addition to the price markup. In this study, we fill this gap by directly exploring the holdings markup behavior by the fund managers. We also identify the specific stock characteristics that fund managers prefer in their holdings markup. In specific, fund managers prefer to trade growth stocks, stocks with larger market capitalization, higher institutional ownership, higher quality of earnings, and stocks in the high-tech industry, to inflate the fund performance. We also find that fund managers tend to avoid stocks that are herded by other funds.     

Transaction Costs and Price Volatility: New Evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange

We investigate the volatility impacts of the full commission deregulation in Japan in October 1999, and find that the deregulation overall tends to significantly increase price volatility in the Japanese equity market, using alternative model specifications and control variables. This finding contrasts with previous evidence that implies a positive relation between transaction costs and price volatility, while consistent from the converse with the hypothesis proposed by Stiglitz (1989) and Summers and Summers (1989). Our results suggest that imposing higher transaction costs might still be a feasible policy tool for stabilizing the market by curbing short-term noise trading.

Latin American stock markets’ volatility spillovers during the financial crises: a multivariate FIAPARCH-DCC framework

The main purpose of this paper is to analyse the volatility spillovers in Latin American emerging stock markets. A multivariate Fractionally Integrated Asymmetric Power ARCH model with dynamic conditional correlations of Engle (1982 Engle, R. F. 1982. Autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity with estimates of the variance of United Kingdom inflation. Econometrica, 50: 987–1007. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) with a Student-t distribution is employed. We examine whether considering for long memory and asymmetry in emerging stock markets behaviour may provide more insights into the volatility spillovers phenomenon. In this paper we select daily frequency stock indexes covering four emerging countries in Latin America for the period (January 1995–September 2009). Our results point out the importance of volatility spillovers in these countries. Moreover, long memory and asymmetry in emerging stock market dynamics seem to provide more insights into the transmission of volatility shocks. More interestingly, the analysis of the DCCEs behaviour over time via multivariate cointegration, vector error correction model and the Cholesky variance decomposition shows shifts behaviour around major Latin American financial crisis and recent subprime crisis. On the practical side, these results may be useful for international portfolio managers and Latin American stock market authorities.