Overview on the recent developments of banking and risk management

This note aims at focusing at the recent developments in banking and risk management with a particular focus on empirical analyses about banks’ regulation and financial risk. It notably describes a financial atmosphere whereby, in response to the US subprime mortgage crisis and the continuing stress in financial markets, policymakers developed alternative monetary policies and regulators pursued different reforms and new regulations to overcome the effects of this crisis. To better understand these different changes and reforms, this note presents the 9 best articles selected from the second International Workshop on Market Microstructure and Nonlinear Dynamics (Paris, June 4–5, 2015, www.fmnd.fr) that focused on these topics. Interestingly, through these different contributions, this special issue has developed new insights about methodologies and quantitative risk management techniques that assess the effects of the financial crisis, explain its different challenges, and suggest some solutions.     

中国金融开放的外源性风险评估与预警研究

本文在构建金融开放的外源性风险指标体系的基础上,提出了评估金融开放外源性风险的＂3δ＂原理和方法,并建立了风险的BP神经网络预警模型。将该原理和预警模型应用到中国和其它25个世界主要发展中国家,结果表明,该原理和预警模型对金融开放的外源性风险的评估与预警具有很强的实用性和可操作性。     

The impact of enterprise risk management on the marginal cost of reducing risk: Evidence from the insurance industry

We test the hypothesis that practicing enterprise risk management (ERM) reduces firms’ cost of reducing risk. Adoption of ERM represents a radical paradigm shift from the traditional method of managing risks individually to managing risks collectively allowing ERM-adopting firms to better recognize natural hedges, prioritize hedging activities towards the risks that contribute most to the total risk of the firm, and optimize the evaluation and selection of available hedging instruments. We hypothesize that these advantages allow ERM-adopting firms to produce greater risk reduction per dollar spent. Our hypothesis further predicts that, after implementing ERM, firms experience profit maximizing incentives to lower risk. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that firms adopting ERM experience a reduction in stock return volatility. We also find that the reduction in return volatility for ERM-adopting firms becomes stronger over time. Further, we find that operating profits per unit of risk (ROA/return volatility) increase post ERM adoption.     

金融集聚、信息缺陷与金融风险形成机制分析

信息缺陷是金融风险形成的根本原因,其中信息不完全产生系统性金融风险,信息不对称则通过逆向选择和道德风险等途径形成金融风险。金融集聚促进了金融信息的大量集聚,提高了金融主体对信息的认知水平,降低了金融主体间认知水平的差距,提高了信息抽象和编码系统的处理能力,便利了金融信息的传播和扩散。金融集聚通过上述几方面作用,影响信息不完全和信息不对称程度,进而影响金融风险的形成。一方面,金融主体对信息平均认知水平的提高以及信息抽象和编码系统能力的提升扩大了金融信息中知识部分的比例,但金融信息的大量集聚又会扩大噪音信息的比例,因而信息不完全未能消除,系统性金融风险始终存在。另一方面,金融认知水平的普遍提高、金融主体间认知差距的减小以及信息的传播和扩散效率的提高都有利于降低信息不对称程度,减少金融市场中的逆向选择和道德风险,有利于防范金融风险。     

Predictability of nonlinear trading rules in the U.S. stock market

Most of the existing technical trading rules are linear in nature. This paper investigates the predictability of nonlinear time series model based trading strategies in the U.S. stock market. The performance of the nonlinear trading rule is compared with that of the linear model based rules. It is found that the self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model based trading rules perform slightly better than the AR rules for the Dow Jones and Standard and Poor 500, while the AR rules perform slightly better in the NASDAQ market. Both the SETAR and the AR rules outperform the VMA rules. The results are confirmed by bootstrap simulations.     

我国资本市场国际化进程中的金融风险研究

结合我国资本市场国际化进程的最新进展,主要从溢出效应的冲击、波动性风险、金融危机及传染效应和金融机构的风险等方面,对这一进程中蕴含的金融风险进行了分析,最后提出了风险防范的对策。     

地方政府债券的风险及其防范机制构建*--基于广东省政府自行发债的经验分析

地方政府债券既是金融市场的投资产品,又是地方政府的融资工具,具有金融领域和财政领域的双重风险。本文在考察广东省政府自行发债的风险现状和法制障碍的基础上,提出构建和完善相关风险防范机制的建议。     

关于金融办组建的历史背景与使命的思考

陕西省金融办自2007年3月份组建以来,已运行近四年了。本文通过对金融办组建的历史背案、使命、履职中应该处理好的几个关系进行了深入探讨。并从实践出发,对陕西省委省政府组建金融办的重大决策有了进一步的理解和思考。     

试论我国城镇就业风险的监测与管理

国际金融危机对实体经济产生的负面影响越来越大,中国的城镇就业风险也随之加大。因此,有必要进行城镇就业风险研究,帮助政府把握各项城镇就业风险因素的影响程度,制定相应政策并实施城镇就业风险管理。     

论金融统计中金融资产的分类调整

本文首先介绍了目前金融统计中金融资产的分类与建议财务会计中的金融资产分类．然后给出建议的金融统计中金融资产的分类调整结果,重点介绍了其中的各个金融资产类型,还针对金融资产流量核算、金融存量核算、金融市场统计等问题提出统一协调的建议。论文最后作了总结,展望了后续研究。     

The dispositif of risk management: Reconstructing risk management after the financial crisis

Despite its dubious role during the global financial crisis of 2008, risk management has continued its expansion. This paper addresses the question why risk management, in the face of its evident failure to manage risks during the crisis, has retained its importance even today. We build on the existing critical literature on risk management (Power, 2007) and advance it by introducing a more rigorous consideration of power. We refer to the notion of the “permanent state of exception” as conceptualized by the Italian social theorist Giorgio Agamben, 1998, Agamben, 2005 in order to argue that risk is a powerful social category as it reflects a potential exception, challenging norms as well as normalizing forms of control. We conclude that a dispositif of risk management, an assemblage of institutions, regulations and models, lies at the heart of risk management. This dispositif provides elites engaged in risk management with an argument that allows them – in exceptional situations – to take extraordinary measures which cannot be rescinded after the initial state of exception has ended. The logic of the state of exception can be used as a discursive resource and adds to, but also gradually replaces, other forms of management control. Our study contributes to management control theory by focusing on post-disciplinary forms of control and provides a novel focus on how elites use management control systems for their own interests.     

区域协调发展的金融地理学探析与现实应用

目前国内不同学者对金融协调界定的内涵外延等存在交叉和冲突,导致其诸多层面尚未达成共识,理论体系比较杂乱。此外,金融协调的中观视角研究还很薄弱。通过金融协调理论溯源、内涵、外延、分歧及共识探析,对金融协调理论进行梳理,框定区域协调发展的金融地理学分析的研究主体与内容,同时凸显其实际应用价值,为进一步的研究提供了方向和借鉴。     

完善我国商业银行国别风险监管体制的思路

国际金融危机的爆发,使金融机构国别风险成为世界各国监管当局关注的焦点。本文从国别风险的不可抗性、复杂性、危害性等角度分析了加强我国商业银行国别风险监管的必要性。鉴于我国商业银行国别风险监管体系不健全、法律基础薄弱、信息系统滞后,必须从树立国别风险理念、建立健全法律法规体系、建立监管体系、创建国际合作机制等方面入手,完善我国商业银行国别风险监管体制。     

财务指标评价银行信贷风险的实例运用

纵观古今,对于全球银行业来说,信贷风险管理的好坏决定了银行的生死存亡。近年来,随着我国银行业体制改革深入,各家银行信贷业务发展迅速,但是我国银行业信贷风险管理观念薄弱,管理水平仍较低,信贷业务快速发展和风险管理相对滞后的矛盾日益凸显,国内关于银行信贷风险管理手段和技术的研究也比较落后,本文将着重从财务报表分析角度探讨财务指标在信贷风险评价中的运用,探讨财务指标在信贷风险评价中的有效性。     

商业银行理财产品绩效评价研究

本文针对理财产品市场的复杂现状,建立商业银行理财产品的评价指标体系,以23家国内商业银行发行的人民币银行理财产品为样本,从风险和收益两个维度对理财产品进行综合绩效评价,并在此基础上为理财产品市场进一步的发展提出了相关的建议。     

基于房地产市场的我国系统性金融风险测度与预警研究

本文阐释了基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险形成机制,据此建立了分阶段、跨部门的房地产市场的系统性金融风险网络模型,并运用2006-2017年16家上市银行数据,分析和测度了我国房价大幅下跌所引发的系统性金融风险水平和结构,构建了基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险预警指标并进行测算。研究发现:在房价下跌30%的压力情景下,我国金融体系的潜在总损失总体呈级数式上升,年均增长22.70%;基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险值(SR)呈现先上升后波动下降的总体趋势;系统性金融风险(SR)的脆弱性指标(FLI)整体呈现波浪式振荡变化,且与房地产贷款/权益整体呈反向变动,系统性金融风险(SR)的传染性指标(CTI)在2012-2017年呈持续下降趋势,且与金融市场压力指数、金融机构间资产占总资产比重呈现出高度的一致性变化趋势。最后,基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险预警指标(SRWI)值呈收敛式振荡走势,表明基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险总体可控且呈收敛式下降。     

Detecting volatility persistence in GARCH models in the presence of the leverage effect

Most asset prices are subject to significant volatility. The arrival of new information is viewed as the main source of volatility. As new information is continually released, financial asset prices exhibit volatility persistence, which affects financial risk analysis and risk management strategies. This paper proposes a nonlinear regime-switching threshold generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model which can be used to analyse financial data. The empirical results based on quasi-maximum likelihood estimation presented in this paper suggest that the proposed model is capable of extracting information about the sources of volatility persistence in the presence of the leverage effect.     

基于房地产市场的我国系统性金融风险测度与预警研究

本文阐释了基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险形成机制,据此建立了分阶段、跨部门的房地产市场的系统性金融风险网络模型,并运用2006-2017年16家上市银行数据,分析和测度了我国房价大幅下跌所引发的系统性金融风险水平和结构,构建了基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险预警指标并进行测算。研究发现:在房价下跌30%的压力情景下,我国金融体系的潜在总损失总体呈级数式上升,年均增长22.70%;基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险值(SR)呈现先上升后波动下降的总体趋势;系统性金融风险(SR)的脆弱性指标(FLI)整体呈现波浪式振荡变化,且与房地产贷款/权益整体呈反向变动,系统性金融风险(SR)的传染性指标(CTI)在2012-2017年呈持续下降趋势,且与金融市场压力指数、金融机构间资产占总资产比重呈现出高度的一致性变化趋势。最后,基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险预警指标(SRWI)值呈收敛式振荡走势,表明基于房地产市场的系统性金融风险总体可控且呈收敛式下降。     

论我国金融消费者的概念及其特权

我国传统的消费者概念应修正为:消费者是为个人消费而获得商品或服务的自然人,但是以生产、经营为直接目的而获得商品或消费的除外。金融消费者可定义为:为个人消费而购买、使用金融商品或接受金融服务的自然人,但是以生产、经营为直接目的而获得金融商品或接受金融消费的除外。金融消费者享有消费者所享有的全部特权,与其他普通消费者的特权相比较,其财产安全权、知情权与金融隐私权需要在立法中加以特殊的保护。     

金融宏观审慎管理框架下我国存款保险制度主要问题探讨

存款保险是经济金融危机的产物,也是防范系统性金融风险的重要宏观审慎管理工具。本文基于政策设计的视角,对我国金融宏观审慎管理制度框架下的存款保险制度建设中的主要问题进行探讨,以期增加我国存款保险制度的完备性和效用性。