Hypothesis on the genesis of homo intelligent

By linking recent research findings from palaeoanthropology and sociobiology with advanced information science, and by use of historical analogy, a hypothesis for the genesis of ‘new man’—homo Intelligens—is derived. Key elements are: human evolution; the fifth and sixth generation computers, the development of new communications media and advanced robotics; and gene—culture coevolution. From this hypothesis the nature of the human society of homo Intelligens is postulated as a global citizens community—a synergetic society of mutual aid with no need for states and armed forces, and with a bio-ecological economic system based on restrained consumption, reutilization of resources, and synergy between production and utilization.     

The spatial effects of information technology: Some literature

The conclusion emerging from comparing many studies is that information technologies can indeed encourage and also substitute for the physical movement of goods and people, with consequences for centralisation and decentralisation. Which of the two effects will appear in any given case appears to depend more on factors other than the choice of technology.     

Institutions,Informal Economy,and Economic Development

Using cross-national panel data, we examine the evolution of the informal economy through the course of economic development. Borrowing from previously published informal economy estimates for 141 countries over the period 1984-2009 and using panel data estimation techniques, we investigate the relationship between informal economy and the level of economic development, proxied by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Our findings suggest that institutional quality strongly interacts with this relationship. Specifically, we find that a higher GDP per capita is associated with a larger informal sector size in countries where the institutional quality is low. The opposite is true in countries with good institutions. These results are also in line with a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model.     

The sociologist as social architect: A new task for macro-sociology?

The theme of voluntarism and determinism is revisited, here in the context of forecasting for futurists. Although fraught with danger the use of scenarios is vital in a world of rapid change, in which people are more than ever aware of the choices open to them and the ways they are able to determine their own future. The author proposes that a merger between the approaches of the sociologist and the futurist could aid our understanding of social futures. The outcome is a ‘design sociology’ based on six key concepts.     

New technology and the new services : Towards an innovation strategy for Europe

The paper summarizes the results of an EEC-sponsored research project on the impact of new technical devices likely to lead to the generation of new types of service activities. A series of policy initiatives are proposed as the basis for a European innovation strategy designed to maximize the benefits of the new technological revolution in services.     

Futures and government: Combating the new philistinism

The downgrading of long-term forecasting and planning in the governments of a number of Western countries is traced to the rise of ‘the new philistinism’—blunt myopia and political opportunism—typified by the stance of the Thatcher and Reagan administrations. After a review of the fate of the proposals for an independent European futures unit deriving from the Europe Plus Thirty project, this article calls for another attempt to set up effective Western futures institutions. Not to forecast and not to plan is a use—or rather, a misuse—of government power.     

Development of the informal economy: A strategy for resolving the crisis of the welfare state

This article is about the factors and conditions which would influence an expansion of the informal sector (jobs which at present are not registered or taxed and which are done on a voluntary or self-help basis). The need and the opportunity for a stronger informal sector are assessed and the social forces which could support such a strategy are identified. There is a danger of a situation arising where the dominant economic system would use the informal sector for its own stabilization; this reflects the limitations of such independent activities as a model for solving our problems.     

基于偏最小二乘的虚拟经济对实体经济影响研究

基于1992年至2011年相关数据,研究我国虚拟经济对实体经济的影响。在阐述虚拟经济对实体经济产生影响的理论基础上,建立虚拟经济评价指标体系及实体经济评价指标体系;构建以实体经济各评价指标为因变量,以虚拟经济各评价指标为自变量的多因变量对多自变量的偏最小二乘回归模型;实证结论表明:虚拟经济对实体经济影响的程度很高,虚拟经济各部分对实体经济各部分既有积极促进的影响作用,也有负向阻碍的影响作用。     

县域经济发展与新型工业化道路的选择

县域经济是宏观经济与微观经济、城市经济与农村经济的结合点,是地方经济发展的基石和支撑。工业化是城镇化的基础,而城镇化又能进一步推进工业化。因此,县域经济的发展必须走新型工业化道路,坚持可持续发展理论,用工业化推动信息化,信息化促进工业化,利用技术进步进行产业技术变革。     

Asymmetric information consolidation and price discovery: Inferring bad news from insider sales

Due to the paucity of sources of negative firm‐specific information, US capital markets have more difficulty identifying and incorporating bad news into stock prices than they do good news. Even though insider selling is a potentially important proxy for undisclosed bad news, researchers have difficulty ex ante identifying information‐based sales due to an inability to separate liquidity‐motivated from information‐based insider trades. We hypothesize that when insiders in multiple firms sell shares of one firm in which they are insiders and at the same time buy shares of other insider portfolio firms, the sale is more likely to be information‐based, since the proceeds are reinvested. Conversely, when an insider sells one firm without purchasing others or sells multiple insider firms the sale is likely liquidity‐motivated. We find that insider sales identified as information‐based using this algorithm are followed by significant negative abnormal returns. Information‐based sales are also more likely to be associated with delistings, earnings declines and earnings restatements. Analysts are also more likely to revise their earnings forecasts downwards for these firms. It is thus possible to ex ante identify insider sales with information content. Our results will be of interest to investors and also to regulators designing insider trading rules.     

股权再融资与盈余管理研究辨析

对已有文献进行总结,是学术创新的重要基础。股权再融资过程中的盈余管理是值得研究的问题,本文归纳近几年的文献,从研究设计、研究技术路线、研究方法、未来研究趋势等方面对此问题进行梳理,以此来探寻关于股权再融资与盈余管理问题的研究现状及未来方向。     

Public health care services in the advanced welfare state: Observations from the Swedish futures study care in society

In 1978 the Swedish Secretariat for Future Studies—a government advisory body for long-term issues of broad societal significance—began its project “Care in Society”. The final project report was published in May 1982. The original purpose of the project was to study how conditions in society affect needs for care in different forms and how these needs are met—informally or through formal institutions. More broadly, the study came to be a general assessment of the welfare state and its growing problems. This article examines findings and proposals from the Swedish report.     

The life of an accounting information systems research course

This paper describes the development, evaluation, and the changes made to a research course for part-time Master of Science students in accounting. The course prepares students for their Master of Science thesis and aims to develop their research skills. On top of this, it managed to overcome barriers between faculty members who were chiefly involved in teaching, and those who mainly conducted research. In the course, students work in teams, closely supervised by faculty members, and go through a research process that ends with the preparation of a research paper. The course consists of 10 steps, which are described and critically discussed. Evaluation scores indicate that students appreciate the course and experience a steep learning curve. Faculty members also experience benefits, despite the extensive preparation time involved.     

Accounting education for professionals in Germany — current state and new challenges

In comparison to other countries, the requirements on the education of professional auditors in Germany have been considered to be the toughest in the world. However, German professionals risk losing this position since there are countries which seem to adapt more quickly and appropriately to changes in the accounting environment.The first part of the paper provides a review of the current state of the education for qualified auditors in Germany with special reference to the according EU-Directives and IFAC-Rules. It is shown that there are various issues which have to be accounted for in order to meet the challenges of the future.The remainder of the paper focuses on challenges due to changes in the accounting and auditing environment, on challenges due to an enlargement of the scope of statutory audit and — finally — on challenges due to the need for diversification from auditing to assurance services.     

The immigration issue

This article outlines the historical development of migration. It then discusses, with reference to two extreme scenarios, the future economic, religious and cultural effects of continued immigration.     

The argument for more future-oriented planning

Planning, and practically all forms of decisionmaking, are concerned with the future. The future, unless we adopt deterministic philosophies, is uncertain and therefore difficult to plan for. Through the processes of change it is likely to be different from the past; existing and past knowledge and experience are only a partial guide to decisionmaking. The inclusion of a future dimension based on careful thought about possible future development offers a new tool to the decisionmaker that should not be overlooked.     

The future of religions

The global future of religions is considered in the context of ‘worldviews’ which, unlike traditional Western beliefs, combine religious and secular belief systems into a dynamic functioning whole. Seven world blocs relating to seven worldviews are identified: the ‘democratic West’ (with a largely Christian background); the Euro—Asian Marxist bloc; the Islamic crescent from Indonesia to North Africa; the non-Marxist, non-Islamic cultures of old Asia; Latin America; Black Africa south of the Sahara; and the smaller countries of the Pacific. The dual forces of individualism and nationalism will have the largest impact on the future development and interactions of religions. The most powerful changes politically will be the convergence of the interests of Christianity and Western humanism on the one hand, and Buddhism and other religions on the other. The ecumenical North—South character emerging in Christianity will make the churches more critical of the present economic system, ‘privatized’ religion will appear in the Marxist countries, hardline Judaism will intensify in the USA (despite developments in Israel) and the friction between radical Hindu and Islamic values will increase (especially in India) and could be a major factor in warfare over the next 30 years.     

The Informational Role of Option Trading Volume in Equity Index Options Markets

This paper examines the dynamic relations between future price volatility of the S&P 500 index and trading volume of S&P 500 options to explore the informational role of option volume in predicting the price volatility. The future volatility of the index is approximated alternatively by implied volatility and by EGARCH volatility. Using a simultaneous equation model to capture the volume-volatility relations, the paper finds that strong contemporaneous feedbacks exist between the future price volatility and the trading volume of call and put options. Previous option volumes have a strong predictive ability with respect to the future price volatility. Similarly, lagged changes in volatility have a significant predictive power for option volume. Although the volume-volatility relations for individual volatility and volume terms are somewhat different under the two volatility measures, the results on the predictive ability of volume (volatility) for volatility (volume) are broadly similar between the implied and EGARCH volatilities. These findings support the hypothesis that both the information- and hedge-related trading explain most of the trading volume of equity index options.     

Communities as informal regulators: new arrangements in industrial pollution control in Viet Nam

A number of studies in developing countries show that in the absence of strict environmental regulation and strong enforcement, communities have emerged as a new informal regulators. In Viet Nam local communities in some cases are successful in forcing industrial polluters to reduce pollution or to change production processes into more environmentally sound directions. New subpolitical arrangements are formed, involving innovative relations between communities, industrial polluters and state authorities. However, people living in the neighbourhood of industrial firms are often dependent on firms and local authorities in terms of economic and social benefits, potentially inhibiting these processes of informal regulation by communities. This paper analyses if and to what extent economic and social dependencies of communities from industrial firms in their vicinity play a role in hampering community involvement in environmental regulation.     

The Role of Critical Evaluation in Finance Education: Insights from an MSc Programme

This paper explores how prepared MSc in Finance students at a British university were for a research-based dissertation; how much they knew about independent research prior to starting the dissertation; and how the university assisted them during this research work. Three changes were carried out within the programme with the aim of immersing students in research practices. Students were provided with the opportunity to discuss and evaluate critically the methodologies and findings of real research studies in Finance. Thus, the study provides practical suggestions on how to support the students' experience of dissertation work. Furthermore, this paper contributes to the literature on what constitutes research in Finance and on how students can learn about standards of academic validation, by offering a subject-specific perspective on information literacy.