高校毕业生就业难题及对策

多年来,我国高校毕业生就业率一直比较高.如2001年6月毕业生实际就业率本科生超过80%,研究生超过95%,专科生达到40%.然而,从2002年开始,高校扩招后的毕业生逐渐进入就业市场,高校毕业生就业形势发生了巨大转变.2002年,高校毕业生达145万人,2003年212万人,2004年将超过250万人.据分析,今年高校毕业生的就业率只有70%,也就是说大约有64万大学毕业生落实不了工作岗位.     

我国的就业形势越来越复杂

我国的失业率处于世界平均水平 20世纪80年代末,我国公布的城镇登记待(失)业率才1.8%,而2002年年底城镇登记失业率已达4.0%.我国在10多年的时间里,失业率上升了122%.如果从传统计划经济或者是经典社会主义的观点来看,失业率确实是高的,上升速度也确实太快.     

亚洲经济:加快结构改革

亚洲开发银行今年4月9日公布的<2002年亚洲经济展望>认为,亚洲经济将在2002～2003年进入持续发展阶段.亚太地区平均国内生产总值(GDP)的增长速度预计在2002年达到4.8%,2003年达到5.8%.来自国际货币基金组织的报告说,新兴工业经济体今年的经济增长率将达到3.6%.东南亚地区国内生产总值的增长幅度预计将从去年的2.6%上升到3.3%.南亚经济体的经济增长预计将从2001年的4.2%升高至今年的5.2%.     

对农村信用社改革试点进展情况的阶段性调查--以浙江省丽水市为例

农信社改革取得阶段性成果 深化改革两年多来,丽水市农村信用社快速发展壮大,存贷款大幅增长.截至2005年6月末,全市农村信用社各项存款余额76.27亿元,比2002年末增加24.89亿元,增幅达48.44%.各项贷款余额58.81亿元,比2002年末增加18.1亿元,增幅达44.46%;其中农业贷款余额41.66亿元,比2002年末增加17.19亿元,增幅达142.35%,占各项贷款的比重由2002年的60.1%提高到70.84%,支农效果明显.     

当下保险业三大未知

投资收益能否上升 据统计,2002年全国实现保费收入3053.1亿元,同比增长44.7%,其中财产险保费收入778.3亿元,同比增长13.6%;人身险保费收入2274.8亿元,同比增长59.8%.但另一方面,保费迅速增加的同时,投资收益却下降了.截至2002年底,中国保险业可运用资金余额达到了5799亿元,比2001年的3702亿增长了56.6%,但保险资金运用收益率却从2001年的4.3%下降到了2002年的3.14%.     

就业市场大趋势

首先是入世后就业总量将增加.劳动和社会保障部的一项研究表明:在2000年～2010年的10年间,就业弹性会比20世纪90年代平均提高50%,达到0.15左右,即GDP每增加1个百分点,就业总量增长0.15个百分点.以此推算,如果2000年～2010年期间国民经济增长速度保持在平均7%的水平,入世后能够比入世前每年平均增加450万个左右的就业机会.     

实行积极的就业政策 缓解严峻的就业形势

当前,我国面临十分复杂和极为严峻的就业形势。具体表现在四个方面: 1.劳动力供给增多,总量压力不断加大 一是失业人员不断增加。2001年末,城镇登记失业人员,由2000年末的595万人增加到681万人,失业率也由3.1％提高到3.6％。2002年上半年,城镇登记失业人员进一步增加到733万     

中国处于老龄化初期

未富先老 据联合国经济社会局人口司编写的<2002年人口老龄化报告>,2002年中国超过60岁的老年人口已达13424.3万人,预期2050年能达到43698万人;占人口的比例将从2002年的10%增长到2050年的30%;可能支助比从2002年的10,到2050年时则会减少至3.     

我国就业问题概况

据了解，一般情况下，一国的就业率应与一国的经济增长成正比，而我国目前的就业率却和经济增长成反比。从1998年到2002年，五年间GDP平均增长了7．3％，而2003年猛增到9．3％，2004年是9．5％，今年一季度是9．4%，在其他条件不变的情况下，经济增长反弹得这么快，失业率应该下降才对，但事实上失业率在上升，前几年的失业率是3．4％，今年很有可能超过4．5％。若经济紧缩则失业问题势必进一步加重。     

2002:经济稳定增长任务艰巨

2002年,预计中国经济增速大体与2001年持平.值得注意的是,2001年经济增长已呈现出明显的季度滑坡趋势:第一季度增长8.1%,第二季度增长7.7%,第三季度增长7%.如果全年增长7.3%,则第四季度增长仅为6.4%左右.这一趋势表明支撑经济增长的因素正在逐步减弱,世界经济持续低迷可能会进一步推动这一趋势.因此,2002年促进内需持续扩张和经济稳定增长的任务十分艰巨.     

Contrarian Investment and Macroeconomic Risk

It is now widely accepted that contrarian, or value investment strategies deliver superior returns. Gregory, Harris and Michou (2001) examine the performance of contrarian investment strategies in the UK and find that value strategies formed on the basis of a wide range of measures of value have delivered excess returns that are both statistically and economically significant. However, while value strategies appear to be profitable, the reason for their superior perform‐ ance is far from clear. Under the contrarian model, value strategies are profitable because they are contrarian to naïve strategies such as those that erroneously extrapolate past performance, while under the rational pricing model, value strategies are profitable because they are fundamentally riskier in some sense. In this paper, we discriminate between these two possibilities by undertaking a comprehensive investigation of the relationship between the returns to value investment strategies and various macroeconomic state variables that in a multi‐factor asset pricing model could reasonably be taken as proxies for risk. Moreover, we examine whether the returns to value strategies predict future GDP, consumption and investment growth over and above the contribution of the Fama and French (1993 and 1996) SMB, HML and market factors. While the SMB and HML factors behave in a manner consistent with the rational pricing model, we show that some value strategies in the UK are able to generate excess returns that do not seem to be related to known risk factors.     

Macroeconomic volatility and external imbalances

Does macroeconomic volatility/uncertainty affects accumulation of net foreign assets? In OECD economies over the period 1970–2012, changes in country specific aggregate volatility are, after controlling for a wide array of factors, significantly positively associated with net foreign asset position. A standard open economy model with time varying macroeconomic uncertainty can quantitatively account for this relationship. The key mechanism is precautionary motive: more uncertainty induces residents to save more, and higher savings are in part channeled into foreign assets. Data and theory suggest that volatility is an important determinant of the medium/long run evolution of external imbalances in developed countries.     

Macroeconomic shocks and banking supervision

We build a simple model of banking in the presence of macroeconomic shocks where the comparative roles of private and public monitors can be analyzed. This model provides endogenous justifications for prudential regulation (capital requirements) and emergency liquidity assistance by the Central Bank (lender of last resort). We show that market discipline can be helpful, but does not solve the fundamental problem of regulatory forbearance. We propose some directions of reform of the regulatory system that could improve the management of banking crises.     

Share Prices and Macroeconomic Factors

The APT with macroeconomic factors put forward by Chen, Roll and Ross (1986) was tested using monthly Australian sectoral share-price indexes for 1980–1994. The inflation rate was found to be consistently priced. The significance of other factors was found to depend on the choice of sample period and estimation method. The model was compared to both an APT with artificial factors and the CAPM. Both versions of the APT were found to clearly out-perform the CAPM but neither version of the APT was clearly superior to the other in terms of both within- and out-of-sample explanatory power.     

Macroeconomic News and Mortgage Rates

The study analyzes the influence of macroeconomic news announcements on (a) interest rates for commercial mortgages, residential mortgages, 10-year Treasury notes, and Baa-rated corporate bonds; and (b) corresponding mortgage spreads. It is both interesting and highly relevant from a policy and portfolio management standpoint to examine the implications of the influence of macroeconomic news announcements on mortgage markets. Some important results are reported. First, consistent with the notion of market integration, mortgage rates are found to be co-integrated with other capital market instruments. Second, of the 22 types of periodic macroeconomic news releases considered, 13 of them have a significant influence on at least one of the interest rates, and notably changes in hourly earnings and housing starts significantly influence all debt-security yields. More generally, macroeconomic news that conveys higher inflation and/or economic growth has a positive influence on mortgage and other interest rates. Finally, this study finds several announcements including durable goods orders, new home sales, personal consumption, non-farm payroll, trade balance and Treasury budget to have a significant influence on mortgage spreads.     

Shadow Banks and Macroeconomic Instability

We develop a macroeconomic model in which commercial banks can offload risky loans to a “shadow” banking sector, and financial intermediaries trade in securitized assets. The model can account both for the business cycle comovement between output, traditional bank, and shadow bank credit, and for the behavior of macroeconomic variables in a liquidity crisis centered on shadow banks. We find that following a liquidity shock, stabilization policy aimed solely at the market in securitized assets is relatively ineffective.     

Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy

The great moderation lulled macroeconomists and policymakers alike in the belief that we knew how to conduct macroeconomic policy. The crisis clearly forces us to question that assessment. In this paper, we review the main elements of the precrisis consensus, identify where we were wrong and what tenets of the precrisis framework still hold, and take a tentative first pass at the contours of a new macroeconomic policy framework.