Consumption, Wealth, and Indebtedness in the Context of Uncertainty: The Consumption Function Meets Portfolio Theory

The objective of this paper is to provide a sound theoretical framework for the empirical analysis of consumer indebtedness, by integrating Portfolio theory with the Life-Cycle hypothesis (LCH) model of consumption. Modern versions of this LCH theory almost always assume that utility is additive over time, but in this study, the multiplicative Cobb–Douglas function is used. The new synthesis also explains the stochastic properties of consumption more fully and clearly than previous studies, in particular the uncertainty arising from rates of return on risky assets. The new theory will also help to improve the explanation of the surprise changes in consumption because these sources of risk are incorporated explicitly into the analysis.     

Portfolio choice and pricing in illiquid markets

This paper studies portfolio choice and pricing in markets in which immediate trading may be impossible. It departs from the literature by removing restrictions on asset holdings, and finds that optimal positions depend significantly and naturally on liquidity: When expected future liquidity is high, agents take more extreme positions, given that they do not have to hold those positions for long when they become undesirable. Consequently, larger trades should be observed in markets with more frequent trading. Liquidity need not affect the price significantly, however, because liquidity has offsetting impacts on different agents' demands. This result highlights the importance of unrestricted portfolio choice. The paper draws parallels with the transaction-cost literature and clarifies the relationship between the price level and the realized trading frequency in this literature.     

Measuring and Optimizing Portfolio Credit Risk: A Copula‐based Approach*

In this work, we present a methodology for measuring and optimizing the credit risk of a loan portfolio taking into account the non‐normality of the credit loss distribution. In particular, we aim at modelling accurately joint default events for credit assets. In order to achieve this goal, we build the loss distribution of the loan portfolio by Monte Carlo simulation. The times until default of each obligor in portfolio are simulated following a copula‐based approach. In particular, we study four different types of dependence structure for the credit assets in portfolio: the Gaussian copula, the Student's t‐copula, the grouped t‐copula and the Clayton n‐copula (or Cook–Johnson copula). Our aim is to assess the impact of each type of copula on the value of different portfolio risk measures, such as expected loss, maximum loss, credit value at risk and expected shortfall. In addition, we want to verify whether and how the optimal portfolio composition may change utilizing various types of copula for describing the default dependence structure. In order to optimize portfolio credit risk, we minimize the conditional value at risk, a risk measure both relevant and tractable, by solving a simple linear programming problem subject to the traditional constraints of balance, portfolio expected return and trading. The outcomes, in terms of optimal portfolio compositions, obtained assuming different default dependence structures are compared with each other. The solution of the risk minimization problem may suggest us how to restructure the inefficient loan portfolios in order to obtain their best risk/return profile. In the absence of a developed secondary market for loans, we may follow the investment strategies indicated by the solution vector by utilizing credit default swaps.     

Returns of Small Growth Stocks: An Empirical Analysis

I investigate the mean reversion tendency of small growth stocks. Using a carefully articulated research design employing established and empirically tested principles, my findings should support or refute the anecdotal evidence that small growth stocks make superior investments. The primary motivation for the study springs from the documented differential preference among investors for value and growth stocks. Despite evidence that value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks, investors retain strong interest in growth stocks. Yet in examining the performance of Business Week’s (BW), smaller capitalization companies (called “Hot Growth Companies”) with respect to the overall financial market, Bauman et al. [2002] found positive excess returns in the pre-publication period but negative excess returns in the post-publication period. A limitation of their study is that their analyses relied on only three criteria: sales, BW rank and return on capital, which do not represent completely a firm’s financial health. I replicate Bauman et al.’s study but use a more robust and representative variable set to test the mean reversal hypothesis — Forbes’ financial criteria — and I focus on six variables. In the current study, I look at 4,200 companies listed in Forbes from 1980 to 2000. The results of the expanded study substantiate Bauman et al.’s [2002] study showing that there are positive excess returns in the pre-publication period, but negative excess returns in the post-publication period. An expanded future study will look at five additional variables to see if they make a significant difference on the effects of the returns of small growth stocks.     

会计政策选择的经济学思考

本文从会计信息具有的稀缺性和有偿性两个特点出发,将会计信息纳入传统经济学的范畴分析。笔者首先建立基本假设和五项具体假设,据此建立理想条件下的分析模型,以便分析会计政策选择的一般性约束;然后,在理想模型的基础上,逐步放松这5项具体,分析现实中会计选择所面临的多重约束,并分析得出结论。     

Feasible Net Income Distributions under Income Tax Evasion: An Equilibrium Analysis

We investigate how redistribution of income is affected by the fact that income is privately observed and agents may not be truthful in their reports to tax authorities. In response, the government establishes an audit mechanism with penalties. Adhering to a signaling equilibrium concept, we prove that agents resort to mixed strategies, which makes it difficult for tax authorities to identify the true types. The audit strategy has a cutoff property: All income declarations below the pivotal income are audited with a constant probability; other declarations are not audited. In spite of not necessarily being truthful, agents whose true income is below or equal to the pivotal income pay their liability and, consequently, the government is implementing the designated tax schedule for those agents. In equilibrium, penalties and tax corrections equal the audit cost. Consequently, the audit system does not contribute directly to revenues, and its role is restricted to supporting the equilibrium.     

An Experimental Testing of Anchoring Effects in Discrete Choice Questions

This paper re-examines the openended/dichotomous choice question in the lab. It hasearlier been suggested that the dichotomous choiceformat suffers from anchoring and yea-saying.Comparing actual economic commitments for a privategood with a significant market value, we cannot rejectthe null hypothesis of equal WTP for the two formats.We conclude that problems with DC might be due toissues of how the survey is framed, not the DCquestion itself.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Foreign Aid: A Panel Approach

This paper uses a panel approach to examine the determinants of foreign aid. It examines the extent to which taxes on international trade and the scope of government activities, ethnicity, private credit, and education determine foreign aid. The paper specifies and estimates a model that explains the allocation of foreign aid among 151 countries over the period 1975 to 1998. The key empirical finding suggests that Taxes on Trade increases foreign aid dependency. Moreover, trade, private credit, foreign direct investment, GDP per worker, and government consumption are important determinants of foreign aid. The factors that appear to decrease foreign aid include: Years of schooling, private credit, trade, and GDP per worker. The factors that appear to increase foreign aid include: Taxes on international trade, ethnicity, and government consumption.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Aid on Growth

The fact that so many countries register low per capita income after receiving enormous amounts of foreign aid questions its effectiveness as a tool for economic growth and consequently as an instrument of poverty alleviation. The impact of foreign aid on economic growth is ultimately an empirical question and one that will be addressed in this paper. The paper uses the most recent data and incorporates most of the salient features of the new growth literature to test the effect of aid on economic growth. Three important conclusions emerged from the empirical analysis of the paper. First, it shows that the effect of aid on growth is nonlinear. The nonlinearity of the relationship indicates a threshold for foreign aid beyond which more aid is detrimental to economic growth. Second, the empirical results of this paper support Burnside and Dollars findings that a good policy environment is important for aid to work effectively. Aid effectiveness can only be sustained in an environment of good economic policy. Finally, using etholinguistic fractionalization as an instrument, the empirical results of the paper indicate that the relationship between AID/GDP and economic growth is sequential. More and more aid leads to lower economic growth.The authors would like to thank W. Mark Crain, G. Chris Rodrigo, Willem Thorbecke, an anonymous referee, and the participants of the 57th International Atlantic Economic Conference held in Lisbon, March 10–14, 2004. This paper is presented to the conference under a different title. Professor Ali would also like to thank the Research Council of Niagara University for their financial help.     

中国农村收入流动分析

本文利用农业部1986—2001年间六省农村固定观察点数据,对农村家庭收入流动进行了经验分析,发现:第一,分析期内农户呈现出收入流动程度随时间先增大后逐渐稳定的趋势,这使得持久收入不均等程度显著小于年度不均等,1995年以后虽然有较大的年度收入不均等,但持久收入不均等较小;第二,分析期内农村收入流动始终大于同期城市收入流动;第三,在1986—1990年间,农民平均收入较高省份的收入流动程度较大,而在1995—2001年间,各省收入流动差异并不明显;第四,农民收入水平有条件收敛的趋势,同时,教育水平提高、外出打工,都对农民收入增长有显著的推进作用。     

负所得税制度评析

市场竞争追求高效率的结果会导致收入分配的不平等,政府实施的有助于增进收入公平分配的各种福利计划,往往容易影响经济效率。负所得税制度尽管也会减少劳动供给,但可以在一定程度上兼顾公平与效率,尤其是能够对收入特别低的人群组提供必要的保障,而又很少影响其工作热情,是对个人所得税制度的一种延伸和改善,实施负所得税制度是政府福利计划进一步改革和完善的趋势。     

家族企业收益构成分析

家族拥有企业的控制权使得家族企业的收益函数有着其特定的内涵,分析发现家族企业收益由企业收益和家族收益两部分组成,家族收益是难以度量的非货币形态的收益,包括:为家族成员提供就业机会、创业者中兴家业、光宗耀祖的成就感、在企业中指挥调拨他人的满足感、附随于企业家头衔上的荣誉感以及一系列有形或无形的社会网络资本等。家族收益依附控制权而存在,是影响家族企业控制权转移的主要原因。     

中国行业收入不平等问题的解析

进入新世纪以来,中国行业收入不平等有持续扩大的趋势。基于回归方程的Shap-ley分解结果表明,人力资本、所有制、资本投资、技术等因素对行业收入差距有显著影响,其中人力资本对行业收入差距的贡献约为45%,所有制的贡献在20%以上。因此在治理措施上,实施教育均等化,提高教育回报率,开放垄断行业的劳动力市场,推行劳资谈判制度可以有效缓解行业收入差距持续扩大的问题。     

个税免征额探析

本文通过对免征额累进作用和对宏观经济影响的函数分析,及其对纳税人影响的图像分析,并加以相关数据分析,得出免征额作用的间接性和局限性特征,提出我国目前个税的免征额过高,应当在适当降低免征额以遵循个税“大众税”的发展趋势的同时更多地配合税率和税级的改革来完善我国个税制度。     

我国现阶段个人收入分配差距扩大化趋势:理论分析与对策选择

我国现阶段的个人收入分配差距很大 ,且有不断扩大的趋势。运用现代个人收入分配理论对这一现象进行分析发现 ,人力资本投资差异、机会不平等和社会再分配政策等因素都将影响个人收入分配差距的扩大。因此 ,为缩小我国现阶段个人收入分配上的差异 ,提出了要大力发展经济 ,发展教育事业 ,加强对个人收入分配中的初次分配和再分配过程的宏观调控等对策建议     

Non-linear causality between the stock and real estate markets of Western European countries: Evidence from rank tests

Using the non-parametric rank tests proposed by Breitung (2001), we set out in this study to determine whether any non-linear long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the stock and real estate markets of Western European countries. We go on to adopt the threshold error-correction model (TECM) to determine whether a similar relationship is discernible possibly non-linear functions of the log-price of these two markets. The findings clearly point to the existence of long-run unidirectional and bidirectional causality between the real estate market and the stock market in regions both above and below the threshold level. Finally, we find the existence of both wealth and credit price effects in the real estate markets and stock markets of Western European countries, which thereby offer financial institutions and individual investors in their construction of long-term investment portfolios within these two asset markets.     

影响我国农民收入因素的计量分析

文章基于1986年-2009年时间序列数据,利用主成分分析的方法,在对影响农民收入因素分类的基础上,选取了影响农民收入的17个代表性指标,在损失较少信息的前提下,将之提取为3个主成分,并实证检验了农民收入与这三个主成分之间的协整关系。研究发现：农村劳动力转移、国家财政支农支出、农村物质资本投资及农民受教育程度等因素对农民增收有较大的正向作用;农业产业结构及三大产业结构变化对农民增收有较大的负向作用。最后,基于得出的实证结论,提出促进我国农民增收的财税政策建议。     

Technological Choice In Voluntary Standards Committees: An Empirical Analysis

Vendors frequently compete to have their technology adopted as part of a voluntary consensus standard. In this paper we report the results of an empirical study of the factors that influence the choice of technologies in voluntary technical standards committees.

Participation in standards committees is viewed as an aspect of the product development process of corporations involved in markets where network externalities are present. The factors hypothesized to affect the technology decision are: the market power of the coalition sponsoring the technology, the installed base of the products containing the technology, the size of the firms that make up the coalition, the promotional activities of the sponsors (such as technical contributions submitted), the perceived superiority of the technology, and the political skills of the coalition.

These hypotheses were tested by collecting data concerning specific technical decisions that were made in several standards committees in the area of computer communications hardware. Two sided t-tests were used to test the hypotheses, and logit regression was used to infer the importance of each factor in predicting adoption or non-adoption of the technology. A factor analysis was also performed to gain further insight into the data.

The results suggest that the size of the firms in the coalition supporting a technology and the extent to which they support their position through written contributions are significant determinants of technological choice in the standards decisions studied. The market share of the firms in the coalition was found to be significant only for the buyers of compatible products, i.e., the monopsony power was significant, not the monopoly power. In addition, the technologies whose sponsors weighted market factors more highly than technical factors were more likely to be adopted in the standards decision studied. The proponents of both the adopted and non-adopted technologies were found to have equal belief in the overall technical superiority of their technical alternative, even after the decision. The installed base of a technology and process skills were not found to be significant predictors of the committee outcome.