Conjoint analysis of demand for IP telephony: the case of Japan

With the recent diffusion of broadband (BB) services, Internet protocol (IP) telephony is expected to spread significantly in Japan. This article investigates the demand for IP telephony by using conjoint analysis. Projecting IP telephony demand also contributes to Japanese info-communication policy discussions. Two points are made. First, IP telephony is still currently considered an optional supplement or an add-on service option of high-speed BB Internet access services in Japan rather than a close substitute of existing plain old telephone service (POTS). At this point, we find little evidence that many households will promptly forsake their fixed line service for IP telephony. Second, we conclude that the key condition for the proliferation of IP telephony is the complete guarantee of quality of service (QoS), including voice quality, number portability, fax usage and emergency access, comparable to or exceeding that of existing POTS.     

Access regulation and the adoption of VoIP

The introduction of packet-switched telephony in the form of Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) raises concerns about current regulatory practice. Access regulation has been designed for traditional telephony on public networks (PSTN). In this paper we analyze the effect of access regulation and retail price regulation of PSTN networks on the adoption of a new technology in the form of VoIP. In particular, we show that with endogenous consumer choice between PSTN and VoIP telephony, higher prices for terminating access to the PSTN network make VoIP less likely to succeed and lead to lower profits of operators that offer exclusively VoIP telephony.      

Economic crisis and benefits of the Internet: differentiated Internet usage by employment status

Using data from the Spanish Survey on Equipment and Use of ICTs in Households for 2007–2011, this paper evaluates the effect of employment status on the diffusion of the Internet among the labor force. We use a bivariate probit with sample selection model to account for a potential selection bias that arises because online usage is only observed for Internet users. Our results show that, controlling for income, employment influences online adoption and usage, and we find evidence of a digital divide in adoption and usage by education and age among the labor force. Employed individuals are more likely to have accessed the Internet and used it more frequently than the unemployed and for different activities. However, conditional on adoption, they do not use the Internet for more personal activities. These findings suggest that firms promote and subsidize Internet access, but this sponsored access does not translate into more personal use.     

Diffusion of mobile telephony in India: An empirical study

Diffusion of new technology is an important driver of economic growth. In this paper, diffusion of mobile telephony in India is studied. There is a vast diffusion potential in this country which needs to be exploited efficiently and in a rational way. This paper investigates the social, technological, economical and political (STEP) factors that have influenced the diffusion process of mobile telephony especially the diffusion speed. The epidemic model, which is widely employed in the diffusion studies of mobile telephony, is used for the study. The data is fitted into logistic, gompertz, and bass models by nonlinear least squares and it is found that gompertz model best describes the diffusion process of mobile telephony in India. The study reveals that competition and government intervention played a significant role in accelerating the diffusion speed of mobile telephony by making the technology affordable. It is found that mobile telephony is a substitute for fixed line telephony in India. The findings will be useful in taking managerial decisions with respect to factors in forecasting and controlling the diffusion process of emerging technologies.     

The usage of VoIP services and other communication services: An empirical analysis of Italian consumers

This paper examines the early stages of VoIP usage by analyzing the relationship between the usage of VoIP services and other voice and non-voice communication services in Italy. In doing so, it aims at filling the gap in the empirical literature on the diffusion of VoIP among consumers and aims at investigating the relationship between VoIP adoption and the usage of telecom and Internet-related services. It relies upon a survey carried out among consumers in Italy in 2006. The use of VoIP is negatively associated with the usage of other voice communication services — mobile communications in particular, but shows some degree of complementarity with other non-voice (Internet-based) communication services, suggesting that familiarity with the web plays a significant and positive role in explaining the adoption of VoIP applications. Furthermore, individual users' technical skills, job position and communications' habits also matter in determining the adoption of VoIP.     

Technology futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods

Many forms of analyzing future technology and its consequences coexist, for example, technology intelligence, forecasting, roadmapping, assessment, and foresight. All of these techniques fit into a field we call technology futures analysis (TFA). These methods have matured rather separately, with little interchange and sharing of information on methods and processes. There is a range of experience in the use of all of these, but changes in the technologies in which these methods are used—from industrial to information and molecular—make it necessary to reconsider the TFA methods. New methods need to be explored to take advantage of information resources and new approaches to complex systems. Examination of the processes sheds light on ways to improve the usefulness of TFA to a variety of potential users, from corporate managers to national policy makers. Sharing perspectives among the several TFA forms and introducing new approaches from other fields should advance TFA methods and processes to better inform technology management as well as science and research policy.     

Is fixed-mobile substitution strong enough to de-regulate fixed voice telephony? Evidence from the Austrian markets

In this paper, we estimate own-price elasticities for fixed network voice telephony access and national calls services for private users as well as cross-price elasticities to mobile services using time series data from 2002 to 2007 from the Austrian markets. Using instrumental variable estimates and considering cointegration, we find that access is inelastic while calls are elastic. We conclude that the retail market for national calls of private users can probably be deregulated due to sufficient competitive pressure from mobile. Access-substitution on the other hand does not seem to be strong enough to justify de-regulation.     

E-commerce transactions,the installed base of credit cards,and the potential mobile E-commerce adoption

Mobile e-commerce (m-commerce) relaxes consumers’ temporal and geographic purchasing constraints and encourage the establishment of omnichannel markets. It is often argued that rapid increase in smartphone penetration is the primary driver of m-commerce adoption, whereas others contend that early adoption of m-commerce applications are mostly by “relatively heavy” Internet commerce users. Brynjolfsson et al. (2013) argue that rapid increase in smartphone penetration is the primary driver of m-commerce adoption, whereas Einav et al. (2014) contend that early adoption of m-commerce applications are mostly by ‘relatively heavy’ Internet commerce users. This article explores strength of the influences within a nested multiple-service framework, where the reduced-form econometric analysis allows for interdependency between m-commerce and e-commerce services, and the installed base of credit cards. The results reveal a complex situation in which credit cards facilitate e-commerce services, whereas m-commerce adoptions are driven by prior e-commerce and online transaction activity. Also, higher respondent incomes are negatively associated with proposed m-commerce adoption. Surprisingly, privacy concerns do not affect proposed adoption independently; however, an interaction term suggests privacy remains an adoption barrier for the older persons.     

Technological discontinuities, competition and firm performance

This article discuss in a tentative way what determines the effect of technological discontinuities on the competitive position. of companies within an industry. Three cases of technological change are anahzed: the change from manual to romputer numericalb controlled metal cutting machine tools, the change from stand-alone machine tools to flexible manufacturing systems; and the change from non-cellular to cellular mobile telephony It is argued that the character of technological discontinuity affects market shares, by altering the barriers to entry and mobility, and by being more or less in accordance with the different firms' vision about the future, implying variations in the time needed to detect and accept the new threat or opportunity. A technological discontinuity that includes a new threat or opportunig. A technological discontinuip that involues a new generic technology which substitutes for rather than adds to the previous technology base is seen as being most disruptive. The time actualb available for detecting the need to change and to act is limited by the market growth of the new product (the 'speed of diffusion between users). The faster the difficulties is, therefore diffusion is the greater are the possinbilities that early movers will fain intial advantages. Furthermore, the faster the diffusion is the greater are the possibilities that early movers will build sustanable, volume-related entry and mobility barries.     

Estimating demand curve in the Korean VoIP telecommunications market

The VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) market in Korea is showing rapid growth since domestic carriers initiated the service in 2006. These carriers are now seeking new revenue sources from various convergence services and are increasing investment into VoIP. In particular, local exchange carriers (LECs), formerly reluctant to invest in technologies that would cannibalize their local telephone revenue, have started to invest in VoIP, in recognition of the current convergence of media and the telecommunications industry, as well as in the face of intensifying competition. In this study, we determined that VoIP call rates and landline telephony call rates were the most important factors affecting VoIP call demand, in addition to network externality. We also verified that landline telephony is no longer a supplement to VoIP, but rather, a substitute that has considerable influence on VoIP call demand. Empirical evidence is expected to be considered in policy decision making on current issues in the IT industry, such as access prices or competitiveness assessment. The current empirical analysis on the Korean VoIP industry and the adherence to lessons learned from policy enforcement should provide valuable information to countries seeking to develop their own VoIP industries, as well as to businesses developing new strategies based on the VoIP market.     

Models of water market mechanisms and an illustrative application to the Middle East

The growing demand by countries in the eastern Mediterranean over the waters of the Jordan and Yarmuk Rivers, and the highly depleted coastal and mountain groundwater reservoirs, raise the need to explore ways and means to ameliorate existing and expected water scarcity. Economists have for some time proposed ways towards more efficient exploitation of existing water supplies, specifically by employing market incentive mechanisms in order to encourage voluntary water sharing among countries and regions. Such trading schemes may involve two or more countries. It can be shown that such schemes — given any initial assignment of property claims to water resources — can often lead to increases in the welfare of the countries concerned.The paper proposes two specific mechanisms for international markets in water claims in the eastern Mediterranean region, in which parties voluntarily engage in such trades, as they would expect to gain real benefits from these transactions. Simulation exercises with real data show that — as is true for any opening of markets to international trade — that all parties in the region might benefit to a greater or lesser degree from auctions of water.     

Afterword on the Five-Year Outlook: Problems and promises

The editors offer a synthesis that reflects the motivations and concerns that underlie this volume and present “some reasonably tempered hopes and future prospects”. Among the former, they discuss “political/ institutional issues” impinging on the Outlook—its purpose, production, users, and feedback—as well as “technical/intellectual” ones. Among the latter, they note that for Outlook reports beyond the second, current signals are that the science policy community will be involved more substantially, and that contributions in general will be decentralized. They foresee the Outlook evolving into a forum for discussion and advocacy of future science-technology priorities.     

The Voice of the People

Bruce Ackerman offers a view of American constitutional politics that stresses the fundamentally democratic nature of all American politics, and the increasingly national character of the American demos. The strength of the voice of the people, rather than constitutional due process, are the hallmark of episodes of constitutional reform. At the same time, Ackerman suggests that the American people need to reclaim their Constitution, and proposes that the voice of the people should be heard in a particular way—one involving clear elements of direct democracy. This essay seeks to interrogate the idea of the voice of the people—and the idea of direct democracy—as an appropriate basis for constitutional politics from a perspective that allows of expressive as well as instrumental political behaviour.     

A general hypothesis of aggregated expectations

The aggregated expectations hypothesis, described here in full for the first time, offers a new way of examining likely future outcomes based upon the most important contributor—expectations—to the individual decisions which aggregate to create these final macro-outcomes. It also offers more powerful actors, especially governments, a new tool for influencing some of those future outcomes. The core concept is that the future outcome of an issue, economic or political, will be largely determined by the expectations of those in the population affected whose aggregated individual decisions will shape that outcome.     

Governmental entities: Compliance and performance auditing considerations

The American Institute of Certified Public Accountants recently issued Statement on Auditing Standards (SAS) No. 69 [1996a]. This establishes two parallel hierarchies—one for the public sector (headed by the Governmental Accounting Standards Board (GASB)) and one for the private sector (headed by the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB)). Formerly, governmental accountants had to absorb all FASB pronouncements and then ignore some on command of the GASB. Under the provisions of SAS No. 69, only those future FASB pronouncements that the GASB specifically makes applicable to government entities will be of primary concern to governmental accountants. However, some aspects of the new standard are confusing. The GASB hierarchy of authoritative sources should be understood as having six, not five, levels and some applications—such as accounting for proprietary funds of government entities—need to be clarified by future GASB pronouncements. This study first highlights the provisions of SAS No. 69. Then, based upon the responses to a survey questionnaire, it discusses how the new SAS will affect users of the new authoritative pronouncement.     

Coverage area expansion, customer switching, and household profiles in the Japanese broadband access market

This paper examines the diffusion process of Internet broadband access in Japan by modeling the household choice of access modes. Estimates reveal that the characteristics of users, rather than those of the access modes, play a significant role in demand substitution across the modes. Simulation exercises indicate that had optic fibers (fiber-to-the-home; FTTH) been made available to the whole country in 2005, only 10% of households would have switched to that mode. This result implies that once chosen, the household choice of access mode persists, and that indirect network effects are an important element in decisions to adopt the new technology of broadband. Finally, policy implications are discussed.     

Modelling creative destruction: Technological diffusion and industrial structure change to 2050

Future disruptive, pervasive technologies will have important consequences for industrial structure, economic growth and the environment. Drawing on theories of technological diffusion, industrial evolution and long-term technological change this paper explores the effect of the development and diffusion of two future pervasive technologies on five industrial sectors in three regions during the 21st century in terms of their effect on economic structural change. Through semi-structured interviews with over 100 experts in the two technologies, the paper quantifies the effects of future biotechnologies and nanotechnologies on the industrial structure of the EU, USA and China in 2020 and 2050. The paper finds that as a result of the development and diffusion of future biotechnologies and nanotechnologies, some industries grow whilst others decline and some new ones emerge. The evidence suggests that the effect is different across countries and time; whereas the experts commonly believe that effect of the technologies on the industrial structure of the EU and US is likely to be similar, the effect in China is considered to be less by 2020 but the same as in the EU and US by 2050. This finding has important implications for the location of production, economic growth and energy demand in the future.     

网络财务报告改革:利益相关者的态度研究--基于问卷调查数据的实证分析

随着信息技术的发展和互联网的快速普及,网络财务报告成为一种新的财务呈报方式.本文基于一次问卷调查所获得的数据,运用Cyert和Ijiri关于财务报告的分析框架,了解了信息使用者、信息提供者、中介机构、监管者以及财务软件商等利益相关者对网络财务报告的基本态度,并分析了各方利益关系者之间的差异.该研究为信息技术环境下的财务报告改革提供了初步的证据,并为未来网络财务报告在中国的发展提出政策性的建议.     

Polynomial innovation diffusion models

In an earlier paper [42] the authors presented a comprehensive evaluation and extensions of available causal models of “binomial type” for describing the time pattern of the innovation diffusion processes. The binomial models are based on the assumption that the entire population can be divided into two groups—adopters of an innovation and the potential adopters—such that eventually everyone adopts the innovation and an innovation once adopted is never rejected. However, many examples can be cited where this assumption is unrealistic. Therefore this paper presents some polynomial innovation diffusion models that are less restrictive compared with the binomial models. The paper also shows the link between the polynomial diffusion process and the multilevel technological substitution process.