基于实物期权的风险投资项目评价分析

风险投资项目与其他项目相比不确定性更大,在传统投资决策方法下,风险投资项目的不确定性使项目的投资价值更低,而实物期权方法作为一种新的投资决策方法为风险项目投资中不确定性问题提供了一种解决的思路。尝试把实物期权理论引入到风险投资项目评估中,并把传统方法与实物期权方法结合起来,旨在完善风险投资项目的评价方法。最后得出结论,实物期权方法为投资者继续投资提供了科学的依据,其在风险项目投资决策中的应用具有重要意义。     

政府投资项目后评价的监督约束机制探讨

政府投资项目后评价的三个基本功能是监督功能、评价成果的直接利用、概念性影响。政府投资项目后评价在政府投资项目的事前、事中、事后都具有监督约束机制。强化这些监督约束机制的主要措施有构建以审计机关为政府评价主体的后评价体系;建立奖惩机制,完善配套制度等。     

Uncertain outlays in time-to-build problems

In this paper we analyze investment projects in which there is uncertainty in the total investment cost in addition to uncertainty in the completed project value. We deal with an uncertain time-to-build. Uncertainties in investment cost are quite common in long-term, large-scale, path-breaking undertakings such as some R&D projects. We find that the inclusion of uncertainty in investment cost tends to mitigate the impacts of the uncertainty of completed project value. The implications of the results are significant. First, when uncertainty of investment cost is ignored, the value of the project is underestimated and a tendency toward underinvestment will result; and second, the existence of uncertainty in investment cost will cause long-term projects to require larger declines in value before discontinuation of investment should occur.     

固定资产投资项目管理研究

随着国家对基本建设投入规模的不断扩大,尤其是对固定资产投资项目的财政投入越来越多,因此,加强对固定资产投资项目的管理就显得尤为重要。本文阐述了固定资产投资项目建设规范化管理的内涵和意义,并通过对固定资产投资项目管理存在问题的分析,提出了加强固定资产投资项目管理的建议。     

Finite project life and uncertainty effects on investment

This paper revisits the important result of the real options approach to investment under uncertainty, which states that increased uncertainty raises the value of waiting and thus decelerates investment. Typically in this literature projects are assumed to be perpetual. However, in today's economy firms face a fast-changing technology environment, implying that investment projects are usually considered to have a finite life. The present paper studies investment projects with finite project life, and we find that, in contrast with the existing theory, investments may be accelerated by increased uncertainty. It is shown that this particularly happens at low levels of uncertainty and when project life is short.     

政府投资项目的投资管控之拙见

政府投资项目是指政府为了实现其职能,满足社会公共需要,使用预算内资金、土地开发基金以及其他财政性资金所进行的固定资产投资建设项目。如何搞好政府投资项目的投资控制和管理,使之产生良好的经济效益、社会效益和环境效益,是值得我们长期关注和探讨的课题。文章将对当前政府工程项目投资存在的主要问题进行剖析,并就如何解决这些问题提出一些建议、意见和解决思路。     

企业互补性项目投资包资本预算模型研究

在企业前后期项目投资之间存在互补性关系时,可将具有互补性投资特点的前后期项目看作是一个投资包,构建投资包资本预算模型,从整体角度考察企业的投资决策。以净现值为决策指标,构造关联性项目未来收益现值的关联系数变量,假定该关联系数变量服从正态分布,给出互补性项目投资包的资本预算模型,以辅助企业进行多期互补性项目的投资决策。     

对政府投资项目工程量清单控制价编审的分析

财政部门是政府投资的出资人,投资控制是财政部门在项目投资管理工作中的重要内容,工程量清单控制价编审又是投资控制中控制造价、节约财政资金最有效的方式方法。通过对当前政府投资项目工程量清单控制价编审的分析,提出了政府投资项目工程量清单控制价的编审要点,为政府部门做好投资项目的造价管理和提高投资效益提供一些参考。     

政府投资项目工程造价控制研究

政府投资项目是指以财政拨款、国土基金、城市基础设施增容费、教育附加费、排污费、住房基金、市属国有企业上缴利润等投资的建设项目.当前,政府投资项目造价控制仍然停留在对项目实施阶段的造价控制上,缺少对项目前期投资决策、设计、招标等各个阶段的造价控制,没有实施有效的造价全过程控制.文章阐述了时政府投资项目工程造价控制的有效管理方法,说明对国有资金和以国有资金为主的投资项目实施造价控制是十分必要的.     

实物期权方法在企业投资决策中的应用研究

为了更好的对投资项目进行评估,引入了实物期权理论,为项目投资决策提供全新的思路。本文介绍了实物期权理论,并根据企业投资决策的特点,介绍了实物期权的分类和特征,提出了实物期权应用于企业投资决策的一般步骤。     

Understanding liquidity shortages during severe economic downturns

One feature of economic recessions is the appearance of aggregate liquidity shortages that can exacerbate the economic downturn. We develop a model in which the demand for liquidity arises suddenly in response to continued funding needs of partially completed investment projects whose outcomes are subject to idiosyncratic shocks and moral hazard. When the economy experiences an adverse aggregate productivity shock, incentive constraints that underlie equity contracts may bind, provided the shock is severe enough. In this case, credit-rationing appears, and the heightened demand for liquidity coincides with a greater reluctance to take on equity positions or deepen investments in on-going investment projects. The consequence is a reduction in new investment and termination of on-going projects due to a lack of liquidity, thereby worsening the economic slowdown.     

模糊综合评价法在房地产项目风险评价中的应用

房地产开发投资本身所特有的性质,使之表现出很大的风险性,尤其近期国家对房地产行业的调控政策层出不穷,使投资者面临较大的投资风险。文章通过模糊综合评价法对一房地产投资项目进行风险评价,来介绍该方法在房地产投资领域的应用情况,对投资者进行科学决策有一定的指导意义。     

高等教育投资项目的财务评价

我国高等教育的高速发展对高等教育投资主体和资金来源多元化提出了新的要求。在这种情况下，对高等教育投资项目进行全面的财务评价就成为高等教育投资主体所关注的重要问题。鉴于高等教育投资项目在我国的发展才刚刚起步，相关的研究工作不多，因此，通过调查和对比分析，了解与高等教育相类似行业的投资项目评价，运用系统方法，提出和筛选高等教育投资项目的财务评价指标，初步形成高等教育投资项目财务评价指标体系，将对合理确定高等学校办学规模、正确评价高等教育投资项目提供理论依据和决策参考。     

电力工程施工招投标阶段的风险分析和管理

电力工程投资规模大,招投标管理过程复杂,具有一定的风险。因此对招投标过程的风险分析和管理就尤为重要。文中阐述了电力工程招投标过程中的风险控制的一些方法以及结合实际的一些具体运用。     

When bigger is better: Investment volume drivers in infrastructure public-private partnership projects

This research studies the factors that favour the establishment of high-investment infrastructure public-private partnership (PPP) projects. We analyse 9121 PPPs, hosted in 107 developing countries, in the period 1997–2017. We find that PPP projects adopting contractual forms in which the private party takes more risks, awarded through competitive methods and benefitting from indirect government support programmes, are characterized by a larger investment volume. A more business-friendly economy and robust institutions configure the most conducive environment to establish larger investment PPPs. Furthermore, multilateral development banks’ support of the projects relates positively to their investment volume.     

BP神经网络在项目投资风险分析中的应用

影响项目投资经济效益评价指标的参数很多,这些参数均具有一定的不确定性.由于各参数的不确定性,其项目投资经济效益评价指标值也是不确定的,因此,对投资项目所做的经济效益评价结论必将带有风险.在经济评价工作中,应当对这种风险作出合理的量化分析和估算,以了解项目的风险承受能力,并尽可能采取措施回避风险.本文共搜集了10个相似投资项目,根据BP神经网络工作原理筛选确定了6个影响和制约项目投资因素的指标作为神经网络的输入变量,并提出了基于BP神经网络的项目投资风险分析模型;其中7个投资项目作为训练样本,2个作为检测实例,最后一个进行敏感性分析.经过测算,其精度完全可以满足实际项目投资风险分析的需要.因此,神经网络在这方面有很好的应用前景.     

关于折现率的一些思考

在进行投资决策时，投资人需要以投资项目的价值作为投资决策的依据。计算投资项目价值中的一个难点是如何选取合适睁折现率。文章对折现的意义、折现率的选择中要考虑的因素，以及折现率和投资风险的关系进行了探讨。     

关于做好政府投资项目资金管理的思考

长期以来,我国政府投资项目普遍存在投资失控、监督失控、建设失控、市场失控等现象,国家相继出台了项目法人责任制、资本金制度、招投标制度、代建制管理等一系列制度,对基本建设领域的管理规范化起到极大的推动和促进作用;同时也对如何加强政府投资项目的资金管理,进一步提高财政建设资金的使用效益提出了新要求。本文将就政府投资项目建设资金管理问题进行深入分析,并在借鉴国外发达国家和地区政府投资项目管理经验的基础上,就政府有关部门应如何更好搞好基本建设资金管理提出一些思考和建议。     

A multi-criteria expert decision system for investment decisions: The case of commercial real estate investments in China

Consistent with the rapid growth of the Chinese economy and its commercial real estate (CRE) market, evaluating CRE investments in China is becoming an important application area where a multi-criteria expert decision system can make a significant contribution. We used a multi-criteria expert decision system to evaluate ten actual CRE investments in China. Based on thirty-one industry experts, we identified key decision factors to consider when evaluating different CRE investment projects and determined their importance weights. We then evaluated whether or not the ten CRE investment projects were considered to be successful, taking into account the unique characteristics of each CRE investment project. We finally compared the evaluations for the ten cases with their actual performance using four different performance indicators. The results showed that the evaluations had at least 87.5% accuracy across four different performance indicators. As probably one of the first systematic and in-depth scholarly studies to evaluate CRE investment projects in China, this study contributes to a better understanding of such evaluations and helps CRE investors evaluate CRE investment projects in a more informed fashion.     

Investment and cultural conflict: the Japanese in South Korea

After decades of heavy investment in South Korea, Japanese firms are now finding the country less than ideal for long-term investment due to numerous management conflicts. This study found that many Japanese firms would not initiate new direct investment projects or expand their operations under the existing conditions.