Regional Comparisons,Spatial Aggregation,and Asymmetry of Price Pass-Through in U.S. Gasoline Markets

Spot to retail price pass-through behavior of the U.S. gasoline market was investigated at the national and regional levels, using weekly wholesale and retail motor gasoline prices from January 2000 to the present. Asymmetric pass-through was found across all regions, with faster pass-through when prices are rising. Pass-through patterns, in terms of speed and time for completion, were found to vary from region to region. Spatial aggregation was investigated at the national level and the East Coast with the aggregated cumulative pass-through being greater than the volume-weighted regional pass-through when spot prices increase. These results are useful to the petroleum industry, consumers, and policy makers by providing a basis to estimate the retail price effects that result from a change in spot price.     

Asymmetric Competition on Commuter Routes: The Case of Gasoline Pricing

The intensity of competition among firms depends on commuting patterns, as has been noted, because commuters can reach any store located on their route to work without incurring any incremental travel costs. We incorporate this insight into our estimation of a retail gasoline price function for Lexington, Kentucky, by treating each commuter route as a separate market. Competition in these markets, however, displays an asymmetry because all the commuters travel to the Central Business District (CBD). To accommodate this asymmetry, we treat the market segments on each side of a firm as distinct submarkets and include independent variables (number of competitors and submarket length) from each submarket. Both sets of structural variables influence gasoline prices in the expected direction, but the variables representing the submarket near the CBD have significantly stronger effects. Refinements show that a firm's strongest competition comes from sellers of different brands and from its nearest neighbor.     

Pump Prices and Oil Prices: A Tale of Two Directions

It has been argued that retail gasoline prices adjust more quickly to crude oil price increases than to price decreases. We investigate this issue using the statewide data on weekly retail gasoline prices in the United States between January 2000 and June 2007. Our analysis does not confirm the prediction that gasoline prices adjust more quickly to price increases in crude oil prices. On the contrary, the results suggest that in some geographic areas gasoline prices could change faster when crude oil prices decrease. These findings suggest that a national or a one size fits all energy policy for the United States may be misguided.

What affects intranational price dispersion?: The case of Japanese gasoline prices

The empirical analysis on price dispersion, as described by [Engel, C., Rogers, J.H., 1996. How wide is the Border? American Economic Review 86, 1112–1125], is to investigate the determinants of international relative price fluctuations. Using data from the Japanese gasoline industry, we investigate the implications of the market structure for intranational price dispersion. Our empirical results suggest that: (1) in conformity with the double marginalization model, the dispersion of the wholesale gasoline price is affected by the relative retailer’s margin and (2) the dispersion of the retail gasoline margin is influenced by the degree of competition and advertising. Considering these results synthetically, the retail price dispersion is amplified by the retail market structure both directly and indirectly.     

The Euro and Psychological Prices: Simulations of the Worst-Case Scenario

Currently, nearly 90% of all prices of consumer goods and services in the Netherlands are psychological, conveniently broken or round prices. After converting these 'attractive' guilder prices into euro using the official conversion rate, the resulting euro prices are generally not attractive. The Dutch public is concerned that retailers will not round their euro prices symmetrically upwards and downwards to the next attractive pricing point but only upwards. This paper investigates the question 'What would be the effect on the consumer price index (CPI) if prices were systematically rounded upwards.' Firstly, the attractive pricing points are determined empirically using the actual price sample underlying the Dutch CPI. Secondly, different rounding scenarios are investigated and the likelihood of the worst-case scenario is discussed. It turns out that the euro introduction may cause an increase of the CPI due to psychological price setting by 0.7% at most. However, the competition in the retail sector makes it unlikely that this scenario materialises.     

Reinvestigating the Oil Price–Stock Market Nexus: Evidence from Chinese Industry Stock Returns

The present study investigates the influence of international oil prices on China's stock market returns across 29 different industries. The paper attempts to account for any structural breaks and nonlinearity in this relationship. The results reveal that the effect of changes in the international price of oil on stock returns differs substantially across industries. The stock returns of the coal, chemical, mining and oil industries are found to be positively affected by crude oil price movements. Conversely, electronics, food manufacturing, general equipment, pharmaceuticals, retail, rubber and vehicle industries are found to be negatively affected by movements in the price of crude oil. The results of the estimations also suggest that the majority of Chinese industries have been significantly affected by oil prices since 2004. The influence of international oil prices on Chinese stocks also has a stronger effect in the presence of high volatility but the effect varies across industries.     

Access to Bottleneck Inputs under Oligopoly: A Prisoners' Dilemma?

We analyze the incentives of vertically integrated oligopolists to concede access to their bottleneck inputs to an entrant in the downstream market. First, two vertically integrated incumbents make access price offers to an entrant that chooses which one to accept, if any. Second, firms compete on Salop's circle. The firms may be asymmetrically located on the circle, to reflect differences in consumer shares. For some levels of asymmetry, the incumbents face a prisoners' dilemma with respect to conceding access to their bottleneck inputs. Entry by a downstream firm may lead to lower retail prices. However, entry may also lead to higher retail prices for the access provider and for the entrant. We also consider the cases where there are several incumbents and where the entrant makes the access price offers.     

How connected are Chinese farmers to retail markets? New evidence of price transmission

This paper examines the extent to which Chinese farmers are connected to regional agricultural markets by looking at the intensity of price transmission from retail markets to the farmgate. This intensity is indicative of the extent to which farmers might benefit from improved marketing opportunities and be exposed to price risks. We estimate the elasticity of farmgate prices to retail prices using price data for 170 markets, in 29 out of 33 provinces of China, at the detail of 12 main products and for the five-year period 1996 to 2000. In each province we find strong linkages between retail and farmgate prices with elasticities ranging between 0.6 and 1 and intensifying over time. This suggests that Chinese farmers are generally well connected to retail markets and that this connectivity has strengthened in the period considered, creating not only new opportunities but also new risks. It is also found that linkages are relatively weak in inland provinces, which is a point of concern in view of Chinese policies to create equal opportunities and equitable growth.     

New Belgian Stock Market Returns: 1832–1914

The limited availability of high quality and computer readable data seriously impedes research in history and finance. We introduce a new monthly return series for Belgian owned equity based on Brussels Stock Market data for the period 1832–1914 as an improvement to the popular Drappier index. Over this period, our dataset includes 446,374 prices, 23,976 dividends, 371 stock and reverse splits (or other capital operations) on 2037 stocks of 1387 (foreign and Belgian) companies. Our dataset includes all shares and bonds but also high-quality information on prices, dividends, shares outstanding and market capitalization. In addition, company, country and sector information is available. We construct value weighted, price weighted and equally weighted indices as well as dividend yields. We find three important results. First, total nominal returns hover between 3.29% and 5.35% per annum, depending on how individual stocks are aggregated into the index. Second, dividend income constitutes the major part of total return and dividend distributions have a clear seasonal pattern. Third, the results highlight several drawbacks of the Drappier indices, especially an upward bias in expected equity performance.     

The effect of gasoline prices on suburban housing values in China

By raising road transportation costs, an increase in gasoline prices should be expected to reduce housing demand in locations further from the central business district (CBD) relative to inner-city locations. This study uses a monthly real estate area dataset for 19 large cities in China over 2010–2018 to investigate the impact of gasoline prices on intra-city spatial differentials in housing prices. The findings suggest that higher gasoline prices on average lead to a relative decline in housing prices in outer suburbs, with a 1% increase in gasoline prices on average leading to a 0.004% relative reduction in home values for every additional kilometer from the CBD. The effect is larger in cities that have higher automobile ownership rates and that are less densely populated. The results are consistent with a conclusion that the rise of electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles, and working from home is likely to contribute to a lowering of geographical price differentials within Chinese cities over time.     

Impacts of high-speed rail construction on land prices in urban agglomerations: Evidence from Kyushu in Japan

High-speed rail integrates regions and cities, and thus can possibly have significant impacts on the distribution of economic activities. Using the opening and extensions of a high-speed rail, Shinkansen, in Kyushu, Japan, we examine its effects on land prices in urban agglomerations, which would reflect changes in the distribution of economic activities across urban agglomerations. We estimate hedonic price equations to conduct a difference-in-differences analysis. We find that the large metropolitan areas gained from the high-speed rail by experiencing increases in land prices, whereas small metropolitan areas located between them lost by experiencing decreased land prices. However, such positive effects are shown to be limited to areas close to Shinkansen stations.     

The impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam: the transmission through domestic oil price

This study examines the impact of world oil price shocks on macroeconomic variables in Vietnam with a focus on the transmission channel of domestic oil prices. The Structural Vector Autoregression model with two blocks of real economy variables and monetary variables is employed. The world oil price follows an autoregressive process to reflect the exogenous nature of world oil price shocks to the domestic economy. The retail domestic oil price is determined simultaneously by only the world oil price due to the government's control of the domestic oil market. Using monthly data in the period between 2009 and 2021, the study indicates that a positive shock to world oil prices will increase the domestic oil prices significantly, industrial production (slightly and only statistically significant in the third month after), and inflation (significantly in 8 months). Besides, the domestic oil price is not the only transmission channel of world oil price shocks to the economy. This result implies forecasting, assessing, and controlling the impact of the world oil price shock on the economy should focus on both domestic oil prices and other indirect channels.     

ASYMMETRIC PRICE TRANSMISSION AND MARKET CONCENTRATION: AN INVESTIGATION INTO FOUR SOUTH AFRICAN AGRO-FOOD INDUSTRIES

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Spread of E-commerce,prices and inflation dynamics: Evidence from online price big data in Korea

The so-called Amazon effect is generally defined as such that the increasing competition in the online market and between online and traditional retailers is reducing retail markups and putting downward pressure on prices. This paper investigates the existence of the Amazon effect using online price big data in Korea where e-commerce has been rapidly spreading. For this task, the direct comparison between the online and offline prices were conducted in terms of the levels, trends, inflations, and dynamic correlations for two prices. Online prices for products were collected and classified under the identical classification in the CPI for 14 items in two divisions: food and non-alcoholic beverages and clothing and footwear. Laspeyres formula with identical weights as for the CPIs was applied to compilation of the item- and division-level OPIs (online price indexes) from July 2018 to June 2019. The empirical analyses overall indicated that persistent decreasing trends in the online prices were found when compared to those in the offline prices represented by the CPIs, indicating the existence of the Amazon effect in Korea. More specifically, the OPI covering two divisions decreased by 1.8%, while the CPI increased by 3.6% for the period. In addition, the close dynamic correlations between on-month inflations of two indexes were also found in panel regression and VAR estimations, indicating that a 1% increasing shock to OPI inflation led to an around 0.3% increasing response in the CPI inflation. The dynamic correlations, however, were quite different across the divisions. Those were more pronounced for the division of food and non-alcoholic beverages while they were found little in the division of clothing and footwear.     

北京市西瓜销售市场和典型零售商调查研究

从北京市西瓜价格走势、销售产地、品种等情况对北京市西瓜销售情况进行分析,并以北京市各区的西瓜批发零售点作为销售环节的调研对象,对零售商抽样调研进行成本效益分析。结果显示,从销售量上,农贸市场＞超市＞便利店,而在销售价格上,超市＞农贸市场＞便利店,三种零售商的利润率在10%～12%之间。最后提出对零售商进行基础建设升级改造、采用差异化战略和加大促销力度等方面的建议。     

Retail price concentration, transaction costs, and price flexibility circa 1900

This paper studies a unique 1901 data set containing prices of three products obtained from grocery stores in over 1400 cities nationwide. A striking characteristic is a high concentration of retail prices at relatively few “even” numbers. I propose a novel transactions cost explanation for this phenomenon on which existing theory is silent. In particular, grocers selected prices that simplified the task of toting up customer bills by hand and reduced related costs. As stores independently adopted this strategy across the country, prices converged to a few even numbers. Several empirical regularities for all three products are consistent with this explanation. An important implication is that preferences for computationally convenient prices would have made prices “sticky.” An independent study of price flexibility circa 1890 supports this hypothesis. The underlying data show price concentration patterns similar to the 1901 data, suggesting that the phenomenon covered a wide range of products.     

Are China's energy markets cointegrated?

The paper investigates energy price co-movement over the period 01/1999–12/2005 for China as a whole, and over sub-periods and for seven regions, using panel unit root and panel cointegration tests developed by Pedroni (1999, 2004). The results suggest that not all energy sources are spatially homogenous in prices and the processes of energy price cointegration are different over sub-periods; over groups of fuels; and over regions. Coal and electricity prices have co-moved since 2003 while gasoline and diesel prices have co-moved since 1997. The results show that there are clearly variations in the emergence of energy price co-movement over regions, implying that regional fuel markets have emerged in China. Important lessons that can be learnt from the results are that an energy market has, to some extent, already emerged in China and, as a result, energy prices are substantially less distorted than before. If correct, these findings have significant global implications both in terms of future emission reductions, emission trading and trade negotiations where China should be treated as a ‘market driven economy’.     

基于协整理论的美国电力期货市场实证研究

本文基于VAR的协整理论,对美国PJM电力期货市场作了模型实证研究。因果关系检验显示下月合约价格是现货价格单向的Granger原因。协整检验结果显示电力期货价格和现货价格存在长期稳定均衡的关系,期货市场具有价格发现的功能,与现货市场相比价格发现功能较弱。方差分解结果显示,期货价格受自身的影响很大,受现货价格的影响很小;而现货价格受自身影响很大,随着滞后期的增加,受自身的影响逐渐减弱,受期货市场的影响逐步增大,期货市场在价格决定中起主导作用;脉冲响应函数同样显示现货对期货的影响较小,期货对现货的影响相对较大。     

零售企业自有品牌发展研究

零售企业开发自有品牌是零售企业发展的一个显著特征,本文对零售企业发展自有品牌获得成本、营销组合、竞争、差别优势及提升零售商的品牌价值等方面进行了研究,提出了中国零售企业发展自有品牌应以跟随型自有品牌在价格上形成优势,用高端卖场品牌型自有品牌在质量上竞争,使零售企业利润达到最大化。     

地方政府土地市场行为的经济学分析

当前,城市非理性扩张、房价不断攀升、土地市场秩序混乱等问题日益凸显,这离不开地方政府的土地市场行为。文章重点分析了地方政府的土地征购、出让定价、实物地租转嫁以及协议出让等行为,指出中央——地方的财政竞争以及地区之间的平行竞争是其深层次的制度根源,而中国土地制度的产权缺陷决定地方政府对土地市场的“事实垄断”为其提供了现实基础。因此,规避地方政府行为对经济的不利影响,必须明确地方政府土地市场的监管职能,深化土地市场改革,充分发挥市场机制的基础性作用。