证券市场中政府行为的行为金融理论分析

众所周知,证券市场中政府行为对证券市场的作用之直接、影响之剧烈远远超过证券市场自身因素的影响.适当的政府干预有利于证券市场的稳定,对资本市场的健康发展具有积极作用,而过度的政府干预,其结果则会与政府"发展资本市场,促进国民经济的发展"的初衷相悖.本文从行为金融理论的角度就证券市场中政府行为对证券市场作用的內在机理进行分析,意在揭示政府行为对证券市场施加影响的有效途径.     

关于金融经济中的金融套利行为的思考

金融套利行为是金融经济中常见的现象,可以分为跨市套利、跨期套路和跨商品套利几种类型,金融套利行为在整个市场中表现出一种两面性的特征,既可以在一定程度上促进金融市场的良性发展,也会给市场的稳定性带来一些不利影响,不仅导致整个市场出现波动,也提高了金融市场的风险,本文主要分析金融套利行为的模式和管理策略。     

内部控制自我评价报告披露的市场反应研究——基于2010年中小板上市公司的数据

在对我国2010年中小板上市公司披露内部控制自我评价报告披露情况进行分析的基础上,采用事件研究法和多元回归分析法就我国证券市场对内部控制自评报告披露的市场反应进行实证研究,结果发现:上市公司内部控制自我评价报告具有信息含量,投资者能够利用这些信息获得超额收益;我国证券市场能够有效反映已公开的信息,进而消除市场套利行为,这在一定程度上间接证明了我国证券市场价格中包含的信息越多,市场就越有效;盈利能力越强、成长性越好的公司越愿意披露内部控制自评报告.     

指数套利：我国推出股指期货值得注意的一个问题

指数套利是股指期货市场中一种重要的交易行为,它既对股指期货价格的合理定位,促使股指期货市场功能的有效发挥以及促进现化市场的发展具有重要作用,同时对现货市场也具有不利影响。本文研究了指数套利的机制,指数套利对现货市场的作用及现阶段我国制约指数套利的几个因素。最后,提出了有利于发挥指数套利对未来股指期货市场发展的积极作用的几点意见。     

有效证券市场与财务会计理论——基于行为金融学的思考

证券市场是否有效对财务会计理论有着重要的影响。基于有效市场假说,学者们提出了财务报告的方式之"决策有用的信息观"。然而,行为金融学理论的发展对有效市场假说提出了质疑,有效证券市场的异象也对有效证券市场假说构成了严峻的挑战。在证券市场并非充分有效的情况下,"决策有用的计量观"能够为投资者提供更多的预测性的信息,日益受到现实证券市场的重视。     

中国权证市场高开效应行为金融学研究

探讨中国权证市场全部55只权证的高开效应,从行为金融学视角分析了影响权证高开效应的主要因素,建立了回归模型,并进行实证检验,检验结果统计上显著地支持高开效应的普遍存在性以及理论分析和回归模型的合理性。高开效应及相应的无风险套利机会的长期存在表明大陆证券市场还不是一个弱有效市场。对于市场的监管决策,监管部门需要降低模糊性,提高透明度。     

异质行为、不确定性与证券市场波动

针对证券市场价格波动,分析了投资者与证券市场之间的行为特征和反馈机理,以投资者行为与证券市场行为相互作用的视角探讨了资产价格的不确定性波动,得出结论：证券市场波动是由其自身的发展与外部条件变化交互影响所致;在证券市场中,不确定性的作用被严重低估了;灰色神经非线性组合比线性组合更能反映证券市场的复杂性。并提出不确定性在证券市场中具有强化市场适应能力,稳定市场融资能力,以及平衡各方利益的作用。     

对我国股权分置改革的思考

一、股权分置对我国证券市场的不利影响 我国证券市场只有十几年的发展历史,与发达国家如美国已有百余年的证券市场历史相比,显得十分稚嫩,是典型的新兴市场.而且我国证券市场是在经济体制转轨过程中建立和发展起来的,除了有"新兴"的特征,还有明显的转轨烙印.这个"转轨"即在制度设计上由股权分置安排转为股权分置改革.解决股权分置问题能在一定程度上恢复资本市场的固有功能,即价格发现功能和对上市公司行为的市场约束功能.而作为历史遗留的制度性缺陷,股权分置在我国存在着不足,在诸多方面制约了我国资本市场的规范发展和国有资产管理体制的根本性变革.随着新股发行上市不断积累,这一问题对资本市场改革开放和稳定发展的不利影响也日益突出.其主要表现在以下几个方面:     

证券监管的『掠夺之手』

证券市场的监管是国家规范证券市场的有效手段。我国证券市场起步比较晚,还存在一系列的不足,容易造成证券市场的失灵。证券监管是解决市场失灵的有效手段。作为社会公众利益代表的政府就要用"看得见的手"来弥补亚当·斯密"看不见的手"的缺陷,对经济活动和市场进行干预和监管。通过监管,减少市场摩擦,降低交易成本,防止垄断、操纵市场和欺诈行为的发生,减少市场风险,维护市场秩序。我们把政     

从套利交易看证券市场的有效性

近年来,我国学者对于证券市场的有效性做了很多研究,这些研究一般是从证券交易价格的数据出发,分析价格的均值和方差,考察价格的随机性质以及事件发生前后信息对价格的影响等方面而进行。本文则从另外的角度,利用证券市场中是否存在套利交易的机会以及套利交易与证券市场价格的有效性的关系来分析证券市场的有效性。     

股指期货对股票市场定价效率的影响

股指期货的推出,能够大大提高股票市场的定价效率。在动态非均衡市场上,股指期货的价格形成集中并传递大量信息。这些信息通过股指期货市场与股票市场间的套利机制及时传递到股票市场,增加相关股票组合价格的信息含量,引导和发现现货价格,从而提高股市的定价效率。     

Time-varying lead–lag structure between investor sentiment and stock market

This paper uses the thermal path method to study the lead–lag structure of sentiment and the stock market. First, based on principal component analysis, four indicators are selected to construct the sentiment index. Furthermore, the effectiveness of the thermal path method is verified by numerical simulation. Finally, the lead-lag characteristics of the Shanghai Stock Index and the sentiment index are studied via the symmetric thermal optimal path method. The analysis results show that in the short term, investor sentiment has a leading position in the stock market, which may be related to the herd effect and buying the winners behavior. However, over a longer period of time, investor sentiment is affected mainly by fluctuation in the market, which may be related to the existence of cyclical fluctuations in the market and futures arbitrage. In addition, the stock market's leading effect appears mainly from January 2006 to January 2012, with an average lead time of one month.     

Financial markets with volatility uncertainty

We investigate financial markets under model risk caused by uncertain volatilities. To this end, we consider a financial market that features volatility uncertainty. We use the notion of G-expectation and its corresponding G-Brownian motion recently introduced by Peng (2007) to ensure a mathematically consistent framework. Our financial market consists of a riskless asset and a risky stock with price process modeled by geometric G-Brownian motion. We adapt the notion of arbitrage to this more complex situation, and consider stock price dynamics which exclude arbitrage opportunities. Volatility uncertainty results in an incomplete market. We establish the interval of no-arbitrage prices for general European contingent claims, and deduce explicit results in the Markovian case.     

Assessing the reversal of investor sentiment

Assessing the reversal of sentiment in stock markets is needed because, according to the social mood cycle, the change of social mood over time is an antecedent of price movements. The purpose of this study is to empirically assess reversal of investor sentiment, to show the phases of social mood cycle from increasing mood to decreasing mood, and to explain the dynamic change in market inefficiency from increasing to decreasing. Growth modeling, developed particularly for dealing with the change over time, is used in this study for assessing the reversal of investor sentiment. The autocovariance structure of errors and the variances/covariances of the random coefficients are all taken into account in the model. The results have indicated that the change in investor sentiment over time is inverted U-shaped for the entire market. Moreover, arbitrage constraint and stock characteristics exert a joint moderating effect on sentiment reversal. Less arbitrage constraint can strengthen sentiment reversal only when the market for individual stocks is dominated by noise traders. Based on the results obtained, we discuss asset pricing, liquidity management, and market intervention.     

Non‐linear Predictability of UK Stock Market Returns*

Linear predictability of stock market returns has been widely reported. However, recently developed theoretical research has suggested that due to the interaction of noise and arbitrage traders, stock returns are inherently non‐linear, whereby market dynamics differ between small and large returns. This paper examines whether an exponential smooth transition threshold model, which is capable of capturing this non‐linear behaviour, can provide a better characterization of UK stock market returns than either a linear model or an alternate non‐linear model. The results of both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample specification tests support the exponential smooth transition threshold model and hence the belief that investor behaviour does differ between large and small returns.     

股指期货交易量与股指现货波动关系研究——来自香港恒生指数的实证

文章以香港恒生股票指数及其期货为样本,研究了股指波动性与指数期货交易量之间的关系。研究结果表明,它们之间存在单向因果关系,股指现货市场的日间价格波动并没有明显增加股指期货的交易,但股指期货的交易量却对指数现货的波动性产生延迟影响,这从一定程度上反映了香港市场股指期货主要被投资者用于套利而不是风险对冲的工具。     

Volatility smiles when information is lagged in prices

This study explores volatility smiles when stock market information is lagged, specifically in the REIT industry. A usual requirement is that REITs can only disseminate information relating to their property valuations once per year; therefore, this leads to the lagging effect. Within the context of exchange options (i.e. mergers), it seems that no study has researched on this theme. This article uses the Black & Scholes model to calculate implied volatilities and their corresponding implied options to illustrate arbitrage opportunities when exchange options emerge. The results illustrate that implied volatilities are different from non-implied volatilities. Further, arbitrage is still higher among REITs as opposed to other capital market instruments. Finally, just like other capital market instruments, REIT acquisitions generate alpha.     

转型期我国股票市场规制目标的选择

"为国有企业筹资、推动国民经济增长"这一政府股票市场规制的目标已经不能适应经济发展的要求,监管当局应该将"加强投资者利益保护"作为股票市场规制的核心目标,以进一步推进中国股票市场的可持续发展。保护投资者利益是股票市场政府规制目标的核心。造成我国股票市场投资者保护机制缺失的制度性基础在于政府一身兼三职的制度安排,即政府既是国有上市公司、证券交易所、证券公司的实际或者变相的终极所有者,又是投资者利益的守护神,同时也是证券市场的规制与监管者。     

The Relationship Between Stock Market Returns and Technical Efficiency Innovations: Evidence from the US Airline Industry

This paper analyzes the association between two firm performance measures: stock market returns and relative technical efficiency. Using linear programming techniques (Data Envelopment Analysis and Free Disposal Hull), technical efficiencies are calculated for a panel of eleven US airlines observed quarterly from 1970–1990. A relationship, between efficiency news in a quarter and stock market performance in the following two months, is found. A risky arbitrage portfolio strategy, of buying firms with the most positive efficiency news and short-selling those with the worst news during this time frame, results in zero beta risk yet yields annual returns of 17% and 18% for the two methodologies.