Regional Shifts in Pork Production: Implications for Competition and Food Safety

U.S. pork production and processing is consolidating in larger, more economically efficient units, and shifting from the Midwest into the Southeast. A regional model of farm supply and processing demand shows that smaller Midwest operations can survive only if processing capacity remains concentrated in that region. Salmonella incidence is higher in the Southeast and on larger farms. Restricting salmonella incidence in hogs delivered for processing to the minimum feasible level would increase total industry costs by 3%, due to increased production and delivery costs. It would also increase the comparative advantage of farms and processing firms in the Midwest.     

An Econometric Model of the Colombian Beef Sector: 1950–1970

Recent theoretical and empirical studies of beef cattle producers by Barros, Jarvis, Nores, Reutlinger, and Yver have focused on producers' supply response assuming cattle represent consumption goods and capital goods. To differentiate producer price response for cattle sold as consumption goods and cattle retained as capital goods requires data on herd and slaughter age-sex structure. This has limited the range of econometric work which could be carried out in many developing countries. This study utilizes a time series of the Colombian cattle herd which was recently constructed by Rivas and Valdes and which has the necessary age-sex and slaughter data to develop a complete system of structural equations representing the simultaneous determination of demand and supply for Colombian cattle over the 1950–1970 period.     

Econometric analysis of expected price formation

The current report analyses the process of producers' expected price formation through the estimation of supply functions, using vegetables and green tea in Japan as an example. At first, theoretical analysis shows that the factors which transform the producers' expected price formation from the lagged expectation to the rational expectation are as follows: decrease in information price, increase in managerial ability and/or organizational innovation, rightward shift of supply curve, and increase in price elasticity in supply curve. Second, supply functions are estimated by using the price expectation formation which include the rational expectation and the lagged expectation as its extreme form. Consequently, producers' price expectations were found to approach the rational expectations in the case of Chinese cabbage, lettuce and green tea, whose supply curves show high price elasticities, and whose producers' organizations gather price information and monitor the production more than other crops taken in this paper.     

An Econometric Model of the Canadian Agricultural Economy

This study presents an annual macro-type econometric model of the Canadian agricultural sector. The model is designed to depict and forecast some of the important activities of the agricultural economy. This agricultural model is linked with a well established existing econometric model of the Canadian economy—the TRACE model. Forecasting results using the agricultural model with and without the linkage with the TRACE modfhtre discussed. Government expenditure multipliers of the TRACE model with and without the linkage of the agricultural model are also examined and discussed.
Cette étude présente un modèle économétrique annuel de type macroéconomique du secteur agricole canadien. Le modèle est concupour décrire el pour prévoir quelques-unes des activités importantes de l'économie agricole. Ce modèle est liéà un modèle économétrique existant bien établi se rapportant à l'économie canadienne—soil le modile TRA CE. Nous discuterons de l'emploi du modèle agricole visant la prévision de résultats avec et sans la participation du modèle TRACE. Les mulliplicateurs des dépenses du gouvernement selon le modile TRACE avec el sans la liaison avec le modèle agricole seront également examinés et discutés.     

经济学数量模型的选择与科布-道格拉斯生产函数

科布-道格拉斯生产函数早已成为经济学几乎全部数量方法的可操作工具的基础,然而到今天还存在着几个基础性的理论问题没有解决。此外,它的适用性以数据符合同方差性假设为依据,因此,在选定数量模型之前进行数据检验是必不可少的步骤,以避免有偏的结果。本文采用前沿生产函数模型和随机参数—前沿模型,对采自贵州省湄潭县的农户数据进行对比分析,所得到的结果支持上述关于“模型适用性”的论点。     

Econometric Examination of U.S. Potato-Related Market Relationships

Abstract

Modeling results, from a U.S. International Trade Commission investigation, that illuminate potato-related competitive conditions, particularly U.S. market impacts of potato imports, are presented. Estimation and simulation results of a monthJy vector autoregression model of the U.S. fresh and frozen trench fry markets suggest that the own-price elasticity of fresh table potato demand is more moderately elastic than previously thought; that U.S. fresh potato and trench fry markets only modestly interact, because the fresh table market residually and infrequently supplies raw product to processors; and that increased U.S. imports of fresh Canadian potatoes are likely a regional problem in Northeast U.S. markets, and do not appreciably influence potato-related prices or quantities nationally. Given the scarce potato-related literature, the model's estimated market parameters arc of interest.     

Two-Step Econometric Estimation of Farm Characteristics Affecting Marketing Contract Decisions

We examine how farm characteristics affect marketing contract decisions. We relax the restrictive assumptions of Tobit, Poisson, and multinomial logit models and consider the quantity, frequency, and contract type decisions conditional on, rather than jointly with, the contract adoption decision. In contrast to earlier studies on marketing contract decisions, we estimate a two-step econometric model using Agricultural Resource Management Study data and find that farm characteristics affecting decisions to adopt marketing contracts differ from those affecting decisions regarding quantity, frequency, and contract type.     

农户借贷行为和偏好的计量分析

本文利用大样本微观数据,运用泊松模型,对农户的借贷行为和偏好进行了分析。研究发现:农户显著地偏好年利率低、担保抵押少、决策时间短、满足程度高和期限灵活的贷款,而对出借者是否具有农业知识抱无所谓态度;农户不会因为倾向其他特征水平而承受高水平的年利率;农户对年利率水平的偏好不是对称的,农户显著地偏好年利率低的贷款,但高水平的年利率对农户的借款偏好并不具有统计上显著的影响。虽然户主的性别、户主受教育的最高年限对农户借款偏好的影响并不显著,但是,家庭纯收入、所经营的土地面积以及医疗卫生与教育总支出对农户借款偏好的影响在统计上是显著的。     

耕地资源数量与经济发展关系的计量分析

研究目的:探讨耕地资源数量与经济发展的相互关系和相互作用,以协调耕地保护与经济发展的矛盾。研究方法:经济计量分析方法。研究结果:(1)耕地资源数量与经济发展之间存在长期均衡关系,但短期内却存在失衡,短期波动向长期均衡趋近的调整幅度达到38.37%。(2)耕地资源数量对来自经济发展的冲击响应强烈,经济发展的冲击对耕地资源数量变化的解释水平达到50%;经济发展对来自耕地资源数量的冲击响应微弱,耕地资源数量的冲击对经济发展的解释水平不到1.2%。(3)耕地资源数量、经济发展均显著地受到自身波动的影响。因此,协调耕地保护与经济发展的矛盾,应采取长期而非短期的策略,要把经济发展质量提升、耕地质量保护与土地集约节约利用作为主要途径。     

广西集体林权制度改革绩效综合评价计量分析

以广西林改试点的钦州市钦北区和南宁市武鸣县的农户作为研究对象,运用层次分析方法,从集体林权制度改革所取得的经济、社会、生态功能等3个方面,建立了9个评价指标进行综合绩效实证研究表明,其评价结果为0.8168,得到广西集体权制度改革的绩效相当满意,说明广西集体林权制度改革是富有成效的。最后,从积极妥善处理林产资源产权等角度提出了继续深化广西集体林权制度改革的政策建议。     

Econometric estimation of a global spillover matrix for wheat varietal technology

An econometric approach using international and national yield trial data is employed to estimate a spillover matrix for wheat varietal technology. The global spillover matrix is estimated based on international yield trial data from 1979–80 to 1987–88, that include 195 international trial locations and 209 wheat varieties. The locations were classified across countries using the CIMMYT's wheat megaenvironment system and varieties were classified by both their environmental and institutional origin. The model gave good explanatory power and confirmed the location specificity hypothesis, at least, for the varieties developed by national programs (NARS). The spillover matrix shows that NARS varieties developed in the home' environment generally perform better on average than varieties developed in other megaenvironments. Also, the matrix is not symmetric. CIMMYT varieties perform better on average in irrigated and high rainfall environments than NARS varieties developed for these environments. The yield advantage of CIMMYT varieties in many test megaenvironments indicates the potential of CIMMYT varieties to spill-over to these test megaenvironments. Results also indicate that national programs are efficient in selecting from among imported technologies. Analysis of international data is complemented by the analysis of country-level data for Pakistan and Kenya that confirms the above results. The country-level analysis, however, indicates that CIMMYT germplasm does not do so well in some sub-environments, such as the irrigated short-duration environment. The results of the spillover matrix have implications for the design of crop breeding programs both at the national and international levels. Information provided by the spillover matrix can be utilized by national programs to deploy their resources more efficiently by following a mixed strategy of direct importation of technology in some environments and local development of technologies in other environments which are unique to the country.     

Competition Effects of Supermarket Services

This article investigates the competition effects of supermarket services using fluid milk as a case study. A simultaneous equation model for services and price competition is estimated with scanner data from fifteen supermarket chains using two alternative measures of services, namely store size and principal components of in-store services. Empirical results show that increasing services results in economies of scope, greater supermarket chain-level demand, lower price elasticity of demand, and enhanced market power, leading to higher milk prices and quantity sold. We conclude that, as result of service competition, supermarkets differentiate themselves from competitors and successfully attract less price-sensitive consumers.     

湖北省城市土地集约利用与社会经济因素的计量分析

在测度2001-2009年湖北省城市土地集约利用水平的基础上,选取经济发展、人口增长和城市化率为社会经济因素,采用计量经济模型分析城市土地集约利用与社会经济因素的相互作用.结果表明:城市集约利用水平与经济发展、人口增长和城市化均为一阶单整序列;经济发展、人口增长、城市化和城市土地集约利用之间存在单项因果关系;城市土地集约度与社会经济因素之间存在长期的稳定关系,短期波动向长期均衡趋近的调整幅度达到68.36％.因而,政府应采取长期和短期结合的策略,加大城市建设的投入,加强土地利用管理,提高城市土地集约利用水平,使经济和城市化有序发展.     

Econometric forecasting of European community policy impacts on the Scottish cereals and dairy sectors

Abstract

This paper presents an econometric model of the Scottish cereals and dairy sectors. The model was used to analyse the effects of the proposed “MacSharry” Reforms on production and prices in the two sectors. This was done by comparing two ex‐ante forecasts, the first of which assumed that the policies of the proposed “MacSharry” Reforms take place and the second that the policy instruments included in the model remained unchanged from their 1992 values. The results suggested that under the “MacSharry” Reforms cereal production would fall by approximately 8%, cerealprices wouldfallby approximately 11.2%, milk production would fall by 2%, while milk prices would increase by just under 2% as compared with a no change policy.     

The Empirical Distribution of the Costs of Revenue-Based Commodity Support Programs—Estimates and Policy Implications

This paper demonstrates how the density function of the U.S. domestic commodity support payments for corn differs between current price-based approaches to support and a revenue-based alternative. Comparing across program scenarios that provide equal expected levels of support at the national level, the revenue-based scenario exhibits a lower variability around total expected annual payments, and perhaps more importantly, a lower probability of high payments than the current-style support. Furthermore, for the vast majority of corn-producing counties in the United States, the coefficient of variation of total gross revenue per acre is lower under the revenue-based support scenario than under the current-style scenario.     

林业企业竞争力探讨

分析了我国林业企业的竞争环境,阐述了从产业生态角度提升林业企业竞争力的重要性,最后提出林业企业实施低成本和产品差别化战略,有利于培育其竞争力。     

A Spatial Econometric Approach to the Economics of Site-Specific Nitrogen Management in Corn Production

The objective of this study is to determine the potential for using spatial econometric analysis of combine yield monitor data to estimate the site-specific crop response functions. The specific case study is for site-specific nitrogen (N) application to corn production in Argentina. Spatial structure of the yield data is modeled with landscape variables, spatially autoregressive error and groupwise heteroskedasticity. Results suggest that N response differs by landscape position, and that site-specific application may be modestly profitable. Profitability depends on the model specification used, with all spatial models consistently indicating profitability, whereas the nonspatial models do not.