Regional Shifts in Pork Production: Implications for Competition and Food Safety

U.S. pork production and processing is consolidating in larger, more economically efficient units, and shifting from the Midwest into the Southeast. A regional model of farm supply and processing demand shows that smaller Midwest operations can survive only if processing capacity remains concentrated in that region. Salmonella incidence is higher in the Southeast and on larger farms. Restricting salmonella incidence in hogs delivered for processing to the minimum feasible level would increase total industry costs by 3%, due to increased production and delivery costs. It would also increase the comparative advantage of farms and processing firms in the Midwest.     

Spatial Econometric Issues for Bio‐Economic and Land‐Use Modelling

We survey the literature on spatial bio‐economic and land‐use modelling and assess its thematic development. Unobserved site‐specific heterogeneity is a feature of almost all the surveyed works, and this feature, it seems, has stimulated significant methodological innovation. In an attempt to improve the suitability with which the prototype incorporates heterogeneity, we consider modelling alternatives and extensions. We discuss solutions and conjecture others.     

An Econometric Model of the Colombian Beef Sector: 1950–1970

Recent theoretical and empirical studies of beef cattle producers by Barros, Jarvis, Nores, Reutlinger, and Yver have focused on producers' supply response assuming cattle represent consumption goods and capital goods. To differentiate producer price response for cattle sold as consumption goods and cattle retained as capital goods requires data on herd and slaughter age-sex structure. This has limited the range of econometric work which could be carried out in many developing countries. This study utilizes a time series of the Colombian cattle herd which was recently constructed by Rivas and Valdes and which has the necessary age-sex and slaughter data to develop a complete system of structural equations representing the simultaneous determination of demand and supply for Colombian cattle over the 1950–1970 period.     

Econometric analysis of expected price formation

The current report analyses the process of producers' expected price formation through the estimation of supply functions, using vegetables and green tea in Japan as an example. At first, theoretical analysis shows that the factors which transform the producers' expected price formation from the lagged expectation to the rational expectation are as follows: decrease in information price, increase in managerial ability and/or organizational innovation, rightward shift of supply curve, and increase in price elasticity in supply curve. Second, supply functions are estimated by using the price expectation formation which include the rational expectation and the lagged expectation as its extreme form. Consequently, producers' price expectations were found to approach the rational expectations in the case of Chinese cabbage, lettuce and green tea, whose supply curves show high price elasticities, and whose producers' organizations gather price information and monitor the production more than other crops taken in this paper.     

An Econometric Model of the Canadian Agricultural Economy

This study presents an annual macro-type econometric model of the Canadian agricultural sector. The model is designed to depict and forecast some of the important activities of the agricultural economy. This agricultural model is linked with a well established existing econometric model of the Canadian economy—the TRACE model. Forecasting results using the agricultural model with and without the linkage with the TRACE modfhtre discussed. Government expenditure multipliers of the TRACE model with and without the linkage of the agricultural model are also examined and discussed.
Cette étude présente un modèle économétrique annuel de type macroéconomique du secteur agricole canadien. Le modèle est concupour décrire el pour prévoir quelques-unes des activités importantes de l'économie agricole. Ce modèle est liéà un modèle économétrique existant bien établi se rapportant à l'économie canadienne—soil le modile TRA CE. Nous discuterons de l'emploi du modèle agricole visant la prévision de résultats avec et sans la participation du modèle TRACE. Les mulliplicateurs des dépenses du gouvernement selon le modile TRACE avec el sans la liaison avec le modèle agricole seront également examinés et discutés.     

R&D and Technological Learning in Indian Industry: Econometric Estimation of the Research Production Function

Estimation of research production functions has produced rich and useful results for developed countries in the past. This paper makes a pioneering attempt to estimate the same in the context of a less-developed country (LDC) (India). The objective is to examine the process of technology generation and learning in Indian industry. The existing literature recognizes two principal characteristics of technological activities in LDCs. First, their R&D effort is geared towards "minor" as opposed to "major" innovations. Second, technological learning constitutes an integral part of their research thrust. This paper attempts to capture these characteristics in a rigorous econometric framework by estimating a comprehensive research production function incorporating the role of learning. We use Indian firm-level in-house R&D data for two sectors: pharmaceuticals and electronics. Our study not only captures the role of learning in determining research effort and research output, but also re-examines some of the existing hypotheses relating to the effects of firm size, technology import and ownership. We find that the two sectors display two distinct learning trajectories, but in both cases learning proves to be crucially important in technology generation.     

发展竞争、土地供应策略互动与城市用地增长——基于252个城市数据的空间面板模型实证检验

研究目的：针对发展竞争驱动下产生的地方政府土地供应策略,从空间维度上展开进一步分析,解析城市土地供应行为中存在着怎样的空间互动关系。研究方法：运用2007—2017年的城市层面面板数据和空间计量模型进行了实证检验。研究结果：（1）服务于发展竞争的土地供应策略,对本城市和周边城市的用地增长都会产生影响;（2）工业用地价格波动与商住用地价格波动都会产生空间溢出效应,且前者产生的空间溢出效应更强;（3）工业用地价格存在“竞次式”的城市间互动,其价格增长会显著抑制本城市的用地扩张,但会促进周边城市的用地增长;（4）商住用地价格提升会促进本城市用地扩张,并抑制周边城市用地扩张;（5）作为因变量的城市用地规模,在同省/异省的城市间分别存在着“彼此促进”和“此消彼长”两种互动关系。研究结论：区域协调、用地增长两个方面要紧密结合,针对工业用地价格“竞次式”竞争和商住用地价格高价出让,从城市间关系协调入手进行调控政策的设计与创新。     

An Econometric Analysis of Yield Variability in Paddy Production

The objective of this paper is to extend the specification of conventional production functions to a stochastic production frontier in order to explain productivity differences among firms. This involves explicitly incorporating the random variability, which is beyond the farm operator's control, and the true farmer specific variability, which is under his control, into the model. Assuming a Cobb-Douglas production relationship, the model was estimated by the maximum likelihood method. Using the estimated results, the causes for the farmer specific variability were identified. Farmers' understanding of the technology and access to extension advice were the most important factors influencing yield variability.
L'objectifde cette communication est d'étendre la spécification desfonctions deproduction convenlionelle à la limite dune production stochaslique dans le but d'expliguer les différences de productivité entre firmes. Ceci implique l'incorporation au modele d'une part de la variabilité dûe au hasard el hors du contrôle de l'agriculteur, d'autre part de la variability specifique à I'agriculteur qu'il peut contrôler. Supposant un rapport de production Cobb-Douglas. le modèle a été eslime par la methode de probabilité maximum. Utilisant les resultals estimés. les motifs de la variabilité spécifique de I'agriculteur om été identifiés. La compréhension par l'agriculteur de la technologie el l'accès au conseil d'extension ont été les plus importants facteurs affectanl la variabilité des rendemenls.     

Two-Step Econometric Estimation of Farm Characteristics Affecting Marketing Contract Decisions

We examine how farm characteristics affect marketing contract decisions. We relax the restrictive assumptions of Tobit, Poisson, and multinomial logit models and consider the quantity, frequency, and contract type decisions conditional on, rather than jointly with, the contract adoption decision. In contrast to earlier studies on marketing contract decisions, we estimate a two-step econometric model using Agricultural Resource Management Study data and find that farm characteristics affecting decisions to adopt marketing contracts differ from those affecting decisions regarding quantity, frequency, and contract type.     

Econometric Examination of U.S. Potato-Related Market Relationships

Abstract

Modeling results, from a U.S. International Trade Commission investigation, that illuminate potato-related competitive conditions, particularly U.S. market impacts of potato imports, are presented. Estimation and simulation results of a monthJy vector autoregression model of the U.S. fresh and frozen trench fry markets suggest that the own-price elasticity of fresh table potato demand is more moderately elastic than previously thought; that U.S. fresh potato and trench fry markets only modestly interact, because the fresh table market residually and infrequently supplies raw product to processors; and that increased U.S. imports of fresh Canadian potatoes are likely a regional problem in Northeast U.S. markets, and do not appreciably influence potato-related prices or quantities nationally. Given the scarce potato-related literature, the model's estimated market parameters arc of interest.     

Econometric analysis of noncompliance with organic farming standards in Switzerland

Applying the economics of crime theory, we model the decision of an opportunistic and/or careless organic farmer and derive hypotheses to explain noncompliance. Where empirical data are available, hypotheses are tested. We use data for the years 2007 through 2009 of organic farms certified by Bio Suisse. Imposed sanctions are used as a proxy variable for noncompliance and farm characteristics as explanatory variables. Random effects logit models show that processing activities and livestock diversity significantly increase a farm's sanction probability. Past noncompliances also indicate a higher present sanction probability. Finally, we discuss some methodological issues and suggest a way to organize risk‐based inspections more effectively.     

经济学数量模型的选择与科布-道格拉斯生产函数

科布-道格拉斯生产函数早已成为经济学几乎全部数量方法的可操作工具的基础,然而到今天还存在着几个基础性的理论问题没有解决。此外,它的适用性以数据符合同方差性假设为依据,因此,在选定数量模型之前进行数据检验是必不可少的步骤,以避免有偏的结果。本文采用前沿生产函数模型和随机参数—前沿模型,对采自贵州省湄潭县的农户数据进行对比分析,所得到的结果支持上述关于“模型适用性”的论点。     

农户借贷行为和偏好的计量分析

本文利用大样本微观数据,运用泊松模型,对农户的借贷行为和偏好进行了分析。研究发现:农户显著地偏好年利率低、担保抵押少、决策时间短、满足程度高和期限灵活的贷款,而对出借者是否具有农业知识抱无所谓态度;农户不会因为倾向其他特征水平而承受高水平的年利率;农户对年利率水平的偏好不是对称的,农户显著地偏好年利率低的贷款,但高水平的年利率对农户的借款偏好并不具有统计上显著的影响。虽然户主的性别、户主受教育的最高年限对农户借款偏好的影响并不显著,但是,家庭纯收入、所经营的土地面积以及医疗卫生与教育总支出对农户借款偏好的影响在统计上是显著的。     

The Incidence of EU Per‐Hectare Payments on Farmland Rental Rates: A Spatial Econometric Analysis of German Farm‐Level Data

This article analyses determinants for 2001 farmland rental prices from 3,819 farms in Germany. Based on specification tests we estimate a general spatial model to account for both spatial relationships among rental prices of neighbouring farmers and spatially autocorrelated error terms. A €1 per hectare higher rental price in a farmer’s neighbourhood coincides with a €0.72 higher rental price paid by the farmer. The marginal incidence of EU per‐hectare payments paid for eligible arable crop land on rental rates amounts to €0.38 for each additional €1 of premium payments. Regional livestock density, which is indirectly influenced by different policies, is also a major determinant of rental prices. Results are confirmed by sensitivity analyses. Consequently, German farmland rental rates are heavily influenced by agricultural policy instruments and therefore, these policies exhibit substantial distributional effects.     

广西集体林权制度改革绩效综合评价计量分析

以广西林改试点的钦州市钦北区和南宁市武鸣县的农户作为研究对象,运用层次分析方法,从集体林权制度改革所取得的经济、社会、生态功能等3个方面,建立了9个评价指标进行综合绩效实证研究表明,其评价结果为0.8168,得到广西集体权制度改革的绩效相当满意,说明广西集体林权制度改革是富有成效的。最后,从积极妥善处理林产资源产权等角度提出了继续深化广西集体林权制度改革的政策建议。     

Econometric estimation of a global spillover matrix for wheat varietal technology

An econometric approach using international and national yield trial data is employed to estimate a spillover matrix for wheat varietal technology. The global spillover matrix is estimated based on international yield trial data from 1979–80 to 1987–88, that include 195 international trial locations and 209 wheat varieties. The locations were classified across countries using the CIMMYT's wheat megaenvironment system and varieties were classified by both their environmental and institutional origin. The model gave good explanatory power and confirmed the location specificity hypothesis, at least, for the varieties developed by national programs (NARS). The spillover matrix shows that NARS varieties developed in the home' environment generally perform better on average than varieties developed in other megaenvironments. Also, the matrix is not symmetric. CIMMYT varieties perform better on average in irrigated and high rainfall environments than NARS varieties developed for these environments. The yield advantage of CIMMYT varieties in many test megaenvironments indicates the potential of CIMMYT varieties to spill-over to these test megaenvironments. Results also indicate that national programs are efficient in selecting from among imported technologies. Analysis of international data is complemented by the analysis of country-level data for Pakistan and Kenya that confirms the above results. The country-level analysis, however, indicates that CIMMYT germplasm does not do so well in some sub-environments, such as the irrigated short-duration environment. The results of the spillover matrix have implications for the design of crop breeding programs both at the national and international levels. Information provided by the spillover matrix can be utilized by national programs to deploy their resources more efficiently by following a mixed strategy of direct importation of technology in some environments and local development of technologies in other environments which are unique to the country.     

耕地资源数量与经济发展关系的计量分析

研究目的:探讨耕地资源数量与经济发展的相互关系和相互作用,以协调耕地保护与经济发展的矛盾。研究方法:经济计量分析方法。研究结果:(1)耕地资源数量与经济发展之间存在长期均衡关系,但短期内却存在失衡,短期波动向长期均衡趋近的调整幅度达到38.37%。(2)耕地资源数量对来自经济发展的冲击响应强烈,经济发展的冲击对耕地资源数量变化的解释水平达到50%;经济发展对来自耕地资源数量的冲击响应微弱,耕地资源数量的冲击对经济发展的解释水平不到1.2%。(3)耕地资源数量、经济发展均显著地受到自身波动的影响。因此,协调耕地保护与经济发展的矛盾,应采取长期而非短期的策略,要把经济发展质量提升、耕地质量保护与土地集约节约利用作为主要途径。