Insider-outsider forces in wage and employment determination: The case of Sweden

This paper applies a statistical approach used by Andersen & Hylleberg (1993) in their study of insider-outsider effects in wage-employment determination in the Danish manufacturing sector, to analyse insider-outsider effects in the Swedish private sector. Focusing on the univariate and multivariate trend properties of the data, a bivariate wage-employment error correction model is used as an explicit test-bed for the theoretical predictions of adjustments to anticipated and unanticipated shocks. According to the Blanchard & Summers (1986) insider-outsider model, the former changes are absorbed entirely by wages while the latter changes are reflected fully in employment. As in the case of analysis on Danish manufacturing data, it is found that the evidence based on data related to the Swedish private sector also fails to accept the Blanchard & Summers insider-outsider model in its unqualified version. Nonetheless several important traits of insider-outsider mechanisms seem to be in accordance with the observed evolution of the data.     

Insider-outsider influences on industry wages

The persistence of high rates of unemployment in Europe has focused renewed attention on the wage determination process. One aspect which has received particular attention recently is the extent to which wages are determined by insiders, with outsiders having little impact on the wage bargain. If outsiders are disenfranchised in the wage determination process, they may be unable to underbid themselves into employment. The insider-outsider model, and the associated implication of hysteresis, thus provides a possible explanation for persistent involuntary un-employment. Most empirical work on the importance of the insider-outsider model and hysteresis has been done at the aggregate level, either by testing whether wage growth is related to the level or the change in unemployment, or by testing if employment or unemployment follows a random walk. This paper extends both of these lines of analysis to the industry level. Based on a specification which nests alternative models of the wage determination process, estimation results are presented for fifteen industries using annual data for fourteen industrialized countries, and for pooled time-series cross-country data. The paper also tests the hypothesis that only industry-specific variables are important to the determination of industry wages and considers whether differences in industry wage determination might help to understand cross-country differences in unemployment. The results offer considerable support to the insider view of wage determination. Industries in which wages seem to be determined by a natural rate/Phillips curve model — the primary competing model considered in the paper — appear to be the exception rather than the rule. Moreover, at the industry level hysteresis does not appear to characterise wage formation in the high-unemployment European countries to a greater extent than in North America and Japan.     

Unemployment insurance and union bargaining — an insider-outsider approach

A trade union is required to tax its own members to fund unemployment benefit paid to its unemployed members in an insider-outsider model of union bargaining over wages and employment. An increase in unemployment benefit imposed by the government increases employment overall but not necessarily the employment of insiders if the tax rate is exogenously fixed by the government.This paper has benefited from comments of Mick Common, Dipak Ghosh, Bob Hart, and Robin Ruffell. The comments of two anonymous referees and the advice of the Editor have greatly improved the presentation of the paper. Any remaining errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.     

Spot market wages,implicit contracts and technological change: skill-level evidence from Finland

This article investigates the relevance of the theories of implicit contracts and spot market model to the skill-level wages in Finland. We use linked worker-firm panel data over the period from 1991 to 2004, which included major institutional and technological changes. We find similar patterns in the wage flexibility of primary and highly educated workers: their wages increased with the decreasing spot market unemployment rate after the EU membership still exhibiting some weak backward linkages. The wages of the secondary-educated did not follow the decreasing spot market unemployment, but instead some signs of the full commitment risk sharing were found.     

INSIDER-OUTSIDER EFFECTS IN WAGE FORMATION: AN EMPIRICAL SURVEY*

The paper provides a review of empirical work on insider-outsider and duration effects in wage formation. It presents a theoretical model to investigate the relationship between previous employment and the wage rate. The impact of unemployment and long-term unemployment is considered. Empirical results show that the effect of previous employment on the wage rate is generally insignificant. Both short-term and long-term unemployment appear to have a significant negative impact. Micro-studies reveal that both firm-specific and aggregate variables play a role in wage determination.     

效率工资理论的新发展：阿克洛夫的观点

阿克洛夫的效率工资理论,通过吸收社会学、人类学的研究成果,将人的劳动行为看成基于公平出发的社会习俗。根据这一习俗,企业支付的工资不少于工人预期的公平工资,而工人根据企业支付的工资决定自己的努力程度,从而决定自己的边际产出。对于追求利润最大化的企业来说,并非支付的工资越高越好,支付工人的工资应等于工人的边际产出。当公平工资高于市场出清工资时,非自愿失业问题出现,工人技术程度与其失业率负相关。二元劳动力市场的现实与人类内生的行为规范,使得非自愿失业问题的解决前景十分悲观。     

The Gender Wage Gap in Offered,Observed, and Reservation Wages for Spain

The literature on the gender wage gap and wage discrimination has exclusively analyzed observed wage differences, ignoring inactive or unemployed individuals. In order to obtain a more complete overview of gender wage differences, this paper analyzed inactive or unemployed individuals in terms of offered and reservation wages in Spain in the years 1994, 2000, and 2006. The results show that the observed wages give a more positive perspective of the gender wage gap than offered ones. Furthermore, the existence of an important gender wage gap for reservation wages has been noted, which is possibly because women take charge of household and family caregiving tasks to a greater degree than men. The results show that Spanish women had higher reservation wages and lower offered wages than men, which explains their lower participation in the labor market.     

KEYNES ON WAGE FLEXIBILITY AND THE AUSTRALIAN WAGES SYSTEM*

Keynes' General Theory briefly discusses the Australian wages system, as an example of a system in which an attempt was made to fix real wages by law. Keynes argues that such a system, strictly enforced, generates an unstable unemployment equilibrium or highly volatile money wages and prices. This paper clarifies Keynes' views on the Australian system, with a view to their wider relevance for the significance of real and money wage flexibility and inflexibility in Keynes' economics. The most striking finding is that money wage stickiness is a conclusion, not an assumption, of Keynes' theory of employment.     

Minimum wages and youth unemployment

This paper constructs a labor search model to explore the effects of minimum wages on youth unemployment. To capture the gradual decline in unemployment for young workers as they age, the standard search model is extended so that workers gain experience when employed. Experienced workers have higher average productivity and lower job finding and separation rates that match wage and worker flow data. In this environment, minimum wages can have large effects on unemployment because they interact with a worker's ability to gain job experience. The increase in minimum wages between 2007 and 2009 can account for a 0.8 percentage point increase in the steady state unemployment rate and a 2.8 percentage point increase in unemployment for 15–24 year old workers in the model parameterized to simulate outcomes of high school educated workers. Minimum wages can also help explain the high rates of youth unemployment in France compared to the United States.     

Capital–skill complementarity and the immigration surplus

We build a neoclassical growth model with overlapping dynasties and capital–skill complementarities to evaluate changes in immigration policy. Calibrating the model using US data, we quantify the differential effects of skilled and unskilled immigration on factor returns and on the welfare of different sectors of the population. An influx of high-skilled immigrants lowers the wages of skilled workers, raises the wages of unskilled workers, and because of the relative complementarity between capital and skilled labor, substantially raises the rate of return to native-owned capital. By contrast, an influx of unskilled immigrants produces an opposite effect on wages, and has only a negligible effect on the return to capital. Because of capital–skill complementarity, an increase in the number of skilled immigrants generates an immigration surplus—the overall welfare benefit accruing to the native population—that is approximately ten times larger than the immigration surplus generated by an identical increase in the number of unskilled immigrants. This differential welfare effect is far higher than can be accounted for by the disparity between the productivities of each type of worker.     

The gift of advice: communication in a bilateral gift exchange game

We augment a standard bilateral gift exchange game so employees can send messages at the same time as choosing an effort level. Employee effort (controlling for wages) is unaffected by allowing messages, but wages dramatically increase. Messages affect wages because employees give managers advice to set higher wages, usually explaining that this will result in higher effort. This advice prompts managers to try higher wages, helping them learn that raising wages increases their payoffs. In a follow-up experiment, we directly provide managers with additional information about the relationship between wages and effort. This too causes wages to increase, but to a lesser extent than allowing messages. Our results highlight the critical role of learning in generating gains from positive gift exchange.     

The long-run effects of the real exchange rate on employment and wages in Canadian manufacturing

ABSTRACT

The literature on real exchange rate effects on the labour market is dominated by short-run analysis showing that there is heterogeneity in the responses of firms or industries to a real exchange rate shock. Analysing data on Canadian manufacturing industries, I conclude that there is a common long-run equilibrium across all manufacturing industries controlling for their openness to trade after varying adjustments to a real exchange rate shock have taken place. This conclusion is important from the perspective of policy making because it helps to form expectations about the effects of a real exchange rate movement on the labour market. The results suggest that real appreciation leads to economically significant reductions in employment in manufacturing in the long run. Real wages decrease in industries that are highly engaged in international trade and somewhat increase in industries that are relatively closed to international trade. Both employment and real wages converge quickly to the long-run equilibrium.     

EFFECTS OF IMMIGRANTS ON THE 1980–1990 U.S. WAGE EXPERIENCE

This paper questions the claim that U.S. immigration should be reduced because the economy can no longer absorb immigrants as it has in the past. Analysis of male hourly wages shows that the effect of immigration on wages did not change between 1980 and 1990. Further, immigration had no negative effects on wages in 1980 or 1990. These results suggest that the capacity of the labor market to absorb immigrants has not been reduced. Additional analysis shows that, controlling for personal characteristics, the hourly wages of the average native and immigrant worker in areas of high and medium immigration relative to areas of low immigration increased between 1980 and 1990. However, Latino immigrants are affected negatively by immigration.     

The Beveridge curve and labour market dynamics in Turkey

This article investigates the dynamics of unemployment and vacancy rates in Turkey during the period 1951 to 2008 by means of a Beveridge Curve (BC). The time-series analysis of unemployment and vacancies as well as two other relevant labour market variables, real wages and real labour productivity, strongly suggests inefficiency in the Turkish labour market. A stable long-run relationship between unemployment rate and vacancy rate is found for Turkey, that is, the existence of a negatively sloped BC is verified. The estimated Turkish BC reflects the structural problems and lack of flexibility in the labour market. The modified BC with real wages and labour productivity reveals that labour productivity has no significant effect on unemployment rate whereas wages have positive and significant effects on the same variable.     

On the credibility of harassment in the insider—outsider model

In a well-known version of the insider-outsider model, the decision by outsiders not to underbid follows from the threats made by insiders to harass new entrants, thereby raising the entrants' disutility of work. It has been argued, however, that the harassment threat is not credible, at least in the one-period case. In the current paper we explore this claim, concluding that the existence of a social convention, together with associated social pressure effects, provides a possible explanation of the credibility of the harassment threat. Moreover, we suggest that such a convention is likely to play a role even in a multi-period analysis.     

The business cycle of capitalism

In every business expansion the wage share declines because productivity rises faster than hourly wages. As a result, towards the end of expansion the limited wages and salaries cause an insufficient growth of consumer demand, which makes it difficult to realize profits. At the same time costs - including wage costs, material costs and interest costs - are rising, so it is difficult to produce at a profit. Therefore, at the peak of the cycle rising costs and insufficient demand squeeze profits as in a nutcracker, causing a fall in the expected rate of profit, which leads to a business contraction. In every business contraction the opposite trends tend to produce eventual recovery and a new expansion.     

Macroeconomic Policy to Aid Recovery after Social Distancing for COVID-19

Using the Keynesian model set out in McDonald (2020), in which downward wage rigidity is supported by worker loss aversion with respect to wages, this article shows that a period of social distancing (SD) can leave a post-SD economy with both stimulatory and depressive effects. A loss of productive capacity is stimulating. Costs of restarting firms, lower labour productivity when restarted and a desire to restore wealth from debt incurred during the period of SD are depressive. If, as seems highly probable, the net effect on economic activity is negative then a fiscal expansion can restore activity. To avoid an increased government budget deficit, this expansion would probably require an increased tax rate. Reductions in real wages may also be necessary. A desire to balance the government budget combined with no increase in the tax rate would be unfortunate, because it would cause a further contraction in activity from its post-SD level.     

Labour Demand and Wage-induced Innovations: Evidence from the OECD countries

This paper shows that increasing real wages steepens or reverses the slope of the labour demand schedule because increasing wages give firms incentives to innovate and to invest in newer and more efficient vintages of capital. Using macroeconomic data for the OECD countries it is shown that the efficiency inducement of higher real wages steepens the traditional neoclassical labour demand function substantially. Taking into account the adverse demand effects of wage reductions it is doubtful that real wage reductions are a cure for the unemployment problem in the OECD countries.     

Wage–Setting Institutions, Unemployment, and Voters' Demand for Redistribution Policy

This paper examines unemployment, wages, and voters' demand for redistribution policy under three different labour market structures: laissez–faire, wage–setting by company or industrial unions, and wage–setting by a central union. Decisions on the level of taxes and benefits are made by majority rule. Taxes, wages, and unemployment are lowest under competitive wage–setting and highest with decentralised unions. A higher degree of centralisation of union wage–setting implies lower unemployment and taxes because a fiscal externality is internalised. Under some conditions about the composition of the population, the political–economic equilibrium can further be improved upon by cooperation between the government and the central union. This seems to have happened in the Netherlands where the unions and the government agreed to cut taxes and restrain wages, which has led to the 'Dutch Miracle'.     

Directed search with heterogeneous firms: an experimental study

Directed search models labor markets where workers observe wages before deciding where they will apply. This paper tests this model for the case of heterogeneous firms in a laboratory experiment. The theory predicts that more productive firms offer higher wages and workers apply more often to these higher wages. In consequence, more productive firms are more likely to match and the market is more efficient than the prediction of an alternative model where search is random. The main results of the experiment are that average firms offer wages that are close to or a little lower than the theoretical predictions but highly variable and workers apply more often to high offers but not to the extent predicted. The markets are no more efficient than random search predicts, because of the variation in wage offers.