Commodity Rates of Interest and Intertemporal Substitution in Commodity Demand and Consumption

This paper examines the role of commodity own rates of interest in intertemporal analysis of consumer behaviour and presents a disaggregate analysis of intertemporal substitution in commodity demand and consumption. Commodity rates of interest are defined from the Euler equations implied by the intertemporal consumer choice problem. The relationship between commodity own rates and the real interest rate is derived, and the conditions for equality of commodity own rates are discussed. The intertemporal commodity substitution elasticities are characterised using commodity rates of interest, and the intertemporal substitution elasticity of consumption is derived from its constituent commodity demands. Evidence from estimation of the demand system and the consumption function reveals high intertemporal substitution for consumer goods as well as consumption.     

On the Political Economy of Temporary Stabilization Programs

This paper provides a political economy explanation for temporary exchange-rate-based stabilization programs by focusing on the distributional effects of real exchange-rate appreciation. I propose an economy in which agents are endowed with either tradable or non-tradable goods. Under a cash-in-advance assumption, a temporary reduction in the devaluation rate induces a consumption boom accompanied by real appreciation, which hurts the owners of tradable goods. The owners of non-tradables have to weigh two opposing effects: an increase in the present value of non-tradable goods wealth and a negative intertemporal substitution effect. For reasonable parameter values, owners of non-tradables are better off.     

The Relation between Real Wage Rates and Employment: An Intertemporal General- Equilibrium Analysis

Abstract. The paper studies the relation between real wage rates and employment in an intertemporal model in which expectations of subsequent real wage rates affect equilibrium capital investments and equilibrium interest rates in previous periods. Whether the wage–employment tradeoff is more favourable or less favourable in this model than in the static model with given capital depends on whether there is relatively more substitution in consumption or in production, or, more precisely, whether the elasticity of substitution in production is less than or greater than the inverse of the elasticity of marginal utility in consumption.     

Riding the wave: Monetary responses to aid surges in low-income countries

We focus on the management of highly persistent shocks to aid flows in the presence of currency substitution by the domestic private sector. Such shocks have beneficent long-run effects, but when currency substitution is high they can produce dramatic macroeconomic management problems in the short run. What is the appropriate mix of money and exchange rate targeting in such cases, and the role of temporary sterilization? We analyze these and related issues in an intertemporal optimizing model that allows a portion of aid to be devoted to reducing the government's seigniorage requirement. Our results show that a managed float, with little or no sterilization of increases in the monetary base, supports the smooth absorption of the increased aid without incurring higher inflation, higher real interest rates or overshooting of the real exchange rate.     

Tax Base and Crowding‐in Effects of Balanced Budget Fiscal Policy

A dynamic general equilibrium business cycle model is constructed with staggered price adjustment, monopolistic wage setting and distortionary taxation. The government purchases goods, runs an unemployment benefit system and balances its budget through a proportional tax on labour income. A temporary tax‐financed increase in government expenditures can lower the tax rate through a demand‐induced widening of the tax base. It is shown analytically that this allows private consumption to rise, under realistic conditions, despite the negative wealth effect of increased fiscal spending.     

Seigniorage and public good in an OLG model with cash-in-advance constraints

This paper is a contribution to the theory of the optimal monetary policy in overlapping generations models with a cash-in-advance constraint applying on old age consumption purchases. We are particularly interested in the study of seigniorage when the latter is used to finance public goods valued by consumers. Assuming that a public good enters the utility function and the existence of cash-in-advance constraints, we find a Laffer curve of seigniorage at steady-state. We also analyze the dynamic optimal monetary policy when the government maximizes an intertemporal social welfare function and can only resort to seigniorage to finance the purchases of the public good. We show that the optimal rate of money growth may be strictly higher than the one which maximizes steady-state seigniorage: the optimal amount of seigniorage may lie on the decreasing part of the Laffer curve of seigniorage. We finally suppose that the government can use lump-sum taxes in addition to seigniorage. Then, the Friedman rule prevails and public expenditures are only financed through lump-sum taxes.     

BALANCED BUDGETS: ECONOMIC NIRVANA OR FISCAL CHAOS?

This paper investigates the effect of a pay-as-you-go, balanced budget policy on macroeconomic performance. It uses a simple model of the aggregate demand for money and goods, with temporary monetary equilibrium and quantity adjustments on goods markets. Within this framework, if the monetary/real interaction is strong enough, a balanced budget with sufficiently high tax rates (≡ sufficiently high government expenditures) is consistent with typical bounded fluctuations around a relatively high income, low unemployment equilibrium. Lower tax rates (≡ lower government expenditures) can trigger a sharp decline in revenues, expenditures, employment, and output.     

关税、货币政策与中国实际均衡汇率

加入WTO后 ,降低进口品关税等措施将影响人民币均衡汇率水平 ,同时开放经济下国内货币政策、财政政策等宏观经济政策调整也会改变均衡汇率水平。本文运用动态一般均衡的方法 ,探讨中国在加入世界贸易组织之后 ,关税税率调整、货币供应量增长率改变、财政政策调整等措施对实际均衡汇率的长期效应。把货币引入生产函数和消费者的效用函数 ,我们扩展了由Turnovsky提出的两商品资本积累模型 ,利用参数赋值(calibration)的方法进行了均衡状态下的比较静态分析。研究发现降低进口品关税使人民币面临贬值压力 ,而政府增加税收 ,减少对贸易品的消费则有利于人民币的保值和升值。实证研究结果表明 :国外实际利率水平下降 ,实际货币供应量增长率降低都将引起人民币均衡汇率贬值。     

The international business cycle as intertemporal coordination failure

Where investments are irreversible and the future is uncertain, people in two countries can make investment decisions that turn out to be mutually inconsistent. I argue that this intertemporal coordination failure explains international business cycles in a two-currency-area setting with a floating foreign exchange rate. The sequence of events starts with an expansionary domestic monetary shock, which decreases the domestic real interest rate. Facing low transactions costs, people spend the new money relatively early in the foreign exchange market and in the foreign market for loanable funds. Domestic monetary expansion thereby changes the relative prices of domestic and foreign goods and also of goods of earlier and later stages of production. The relative price changes lead to intertemporal and international coordination failures once the monetary expansion ends and relative prices change. Domestic monetary policy thereby causes the comovement across different currency areas we observe of business cycles.     

A Model of Endogenous Nontradability and its Implications for the Current Account*

This paper studies how nontraded goods limit the ability of a country to finance current account deficits. It uses an intertemporal model of the current account for a small open economy where goods are endogenously nontraded due to explicit trade costs. The economy has an endowment of two goods with differing trade costs, either of which can be traded or nontraded in equilibrium. The model implies that current account deficits impose a cost, in the form of raising the effective interest rate in the country. The findings differ from some recent studies: first, in that the interest rate rises even for countries with modest current account deficits; secondly, the interest rate cost eventually reaches an upper bound as current account deficits grow, and progressively more nontraded goods become traded to service the debt. Panel regression analysis of interest rate and current account data is consistent with our conclusions.     

Anticipated Fiscal Policy Changes and Goods Market Adjustments

Abstract. Government policies are frequently known to be temporary and thus their termination is perfectly anticipated. These foreseen policy changes must be consistent with equilibrium in both the goods market and asset markets. Potential problems arise because prices often play dual roles, both as final goods prices, and as asset prices, as components of rates of return. We show how the economy accommodates an anticipated policy change depends upon its production flexibility and its structure. With flexible investment, an anticipated reduction in government expenditure is fully accommodated by capital accumulation. When investment involves adjustment costs, the marginal utility of wealth and the price of capital both jump so as to maintain equality among rates of return. Goods market clearance is maintained by a combination of increases in consumption and investment. Extensions of the model to include inventories and to a small open economy are also considered and contrasted.     

Useful Government Spending and Macroeconomic (In)stability under Balanced-Budget Rules

It has been shown that an otherwise standard one‐sector real business cycle model may exhibit indeterminacy and sunspots under a balanced‐budget rule that consists of fixed and “wasteful” government spending and proportional income taxation. However, the economy always displays saddle‐path stability and equilibrium uniqueness if the government finances endogenous public expenditures with a constant income tax rate. In this paper, we allow for productive or utility‐generating government purchases in either of these specifications. It turns out that the previous indeterminacy results remain unchanged by the inclusion of useful government spending. By contrast, the earlier determinacy results are overturned when public expenditures generate sufficiently strong production or consumption externalities. Our analysis thus illustrates that a balanced‐budget policy recommendation which limits the government's ability to change tax rates does not necessarily stabilize the economy against belief‐driven business cycle fluctuations.     

Intertemporal preference parameters for some European monetary union countries

In the European Monetary Union, the estimation and analysis of preference parameters in its members is of special interest because possible differences could help us to understand why a common monetary policy could have different effects on the different economies involved. In this article, we have focused our attention on the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, one of the key preference parameters in intertemporal macroeconomic models. Several studies have shown a possible underestimation of such elasticity for different countries. It is common practice to estimate the parameter using only nondurable goods and services consumption data, without referring to the flow of services generated by durable consumption. This is only admissible if the intratemporal utility can be separated among the different consumption components. Our first objective is, therefore, to test the assumption of intratemporal separability for a selection of European countries (Germany, Spain and France), and then to analyse the effect of durable consumption on the estimated values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of these countries, our ultimate goal. Knowledge of such elasticity will enable us to characterise how saving in these economies reacts to variations in the real interest rate.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Output Effects of Temporary and Persistent Government Purchases

This paper uses band-pass filters to identify cyclical components of the growth rates of government purchases and to examine their effects on output growth. It finds that for the period 1889–1994 the medium-run and persistent components of government purchases have stronger positive output effects than the temporary components. The finding is robust to alternative decompositions of government purchases.     

Intertemporal production and intertemporal substitution in output supply and input demand

This article presents an intertemporal model of production with multiple inputs to investigate substitution opportunities facing firms over time. The firm’s intertemporal profit maximization problem is characterized with the familiar cost function, and various intertemporal substitution elasticities are delineated for output supply and input demand. The absence of intertemporal substitution in production can imply production smoothing, and allowance for intertemporal substitution in labour demand reinforces the prediction of the real business cycle model. For aggregate US manufacturing, we find substantial substitution in output supply and labour demand over time due to intertemporal changes in output price and wage rates.     

Residence-and source-based taxation of capital income in an overlapping generations model

By using an intertemporal equilibrium model with overlapping generations, this paper explores how residence-and source-based taxes on capital income affect the external current account in small open economies. These taxes influence the saving-investment balance not only through their incentive effects on rates of return but also through their impact on the intergenerational distribution of resources. This paper, in its examination of these effects — both intertemporal substitution and intergenerational distribution — identifies the net effect of the various impacts.The author would like to thank Dieter Bös and an anonymous referee for helpful comments on an earlier draft.     

Equilibrium real interest rates and the financial cycle: Empirical evidence for Euro area member countries

We estimate the equilibrium real interest rate for nine Euro area member countries and the Euro area as a whole using quarterly data from 1995 to 2015. We expand the standard model of estimating real equilibrium interest rates to incorporate the financial cycle for the private sector. We show that adding the financial cycle indeed alters the equilibrium real interest rate estimates and, in line with previous studies, that there is a fall in the equilibrium real interest rate over time. Our results indicate that in most member countries the real rate is lower than its equilibrium level. Hence, they should not worry about secular stagnation now. This is because secular stagnation is likely to occur when real interest rates are higher than their equilibrium levels. This result can serve as a starting point for further research in this field, e.g. by adding public sector financial cycles or disentangling the roles of households, corporations and the government.     

Monetary policy and fiscal limits with no-default

This paper discusses monetary and fiscal policy interactions that stabilize government debt. Two distortions prevail in the model economy: income taxes and liquidity constraints. Possible obstructions to fiscal policy include a ceiling on the equilibrium debt-to-GDP ratio, zero or negative elasticity of tax revenues, and a political intolerance of raising tax rates. At the fiscal limit two mechanisms restore solvency: fiscal inflation, which reduces the real value of nominal debt, and open market operations, which diminish the size of government debt held by the private sector. Three regimes achieve this goal. In all regimes monetary policy is passive. In all regimes a muted tax response to government debt is consistent with equilibrium. The propensity of a fiscal authority to smooth output is found to determine what is an acceptable response (in the form of tax rate changes) to the level of government debt, while monetary policy determines the timing and magnitude of fiscal inflation. Impulse responses show that the inflation and tax hikes needed to offset a permanent shock to transfers are lowest under nominal interest rate pegs. In this regime, most of the reduction in the real value of government debt comes from open market purchases.     

Resurrecting the weak credibility hypothesis in models of exchange-rate-based stabilization

We analyze how weak credibility affects the volatility of consumption spending in a model of exchange-rate-based stabilization that allows for both durable and nondurable goods. The inclusion of durables greatly improves the explanatory power of the weak credibility hypothesis. The hypothesis can account for the main qualitative properties of the boom–bust cycle provided the elasticity of durables expenditure with respect to Tobin's q is greater than the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. Moreover, the quantitative effects are very large. In numerical simulations based on conservative assumptions about the expenditure share of durables (20%) and wealth effects (none), aggregate consumption increases 17–22% and the real exchange rate appreciates 24–26% when the crawl decreases from 100% to zero for 3 years. In variants of the model that incorporate supply effects, the consumption boom is equally strong but appreciation of the real exchange rate rises to 30–40%.     

Short-term policy in open semi-industrialized economies: The narrow limits of the possible

This paper develops a model to analyze short-term policy alternatives in semi-industrialized countries. The major points raised are the following: (i) There are two sectors, producing traded and non-traded goods. The latter is characterized by a fairly low elasticity of substitution and a high relative labor share. If the elasticity of substitution in the traded goods sector has an econometrically reasonable value, then short-run improvements in both the labor share and real income may well call for revaluation of the exchange rate and an increase in home good's price (prices of both goods being measured in wage units). (ii) If excess supply functions have Walrasian stability, such price changes will lead to deterioration in the balance of payments: On the other hand, devaluation-induced improvement in the balance of payments (with constant government expenditure) can lead to an improvement in real income, but reduces the labor share. (iii) If the economy is formally unstable, due to capitalists and laborers concentrating their expenditure demands respectively on the goods intensive in factor payments to themselves, then balance of payments improvement in a comparative static analysis may entail reductions in both real income and the labor share. (iv) If the additional realistic assumption is made that elasticities of excess supply functions for the two goods with respect to the interest rate are quite low, then in general improvement of all three targets (real income, balance of payments, and income distribution) will be unattainable. If in addition the government cannot finance expenditure changes by anything but money supply changes, then in general only one target variable can be attained. (v) Numerical sensitivity analysis based on Chilean data indicates that these (and other) rather pessimistic results hold for fairly wide ranges of ‘plausible’ parameter values, as long as the model's short-run Keynesian assumptions are maintained.