辩证看粮改 客观论输赢--就邓大才先生文章访林耘同志

主持人:林耘同志,您好。邓大才先生的文章是您推荐给我刊编辑部的,这里面有什么特殊的原因吗?林耘:邓大才先生的文章,确实是我推荐给《粮食问题研究》编辑部的。对5年来粮食流通体制改革的成败得失,目前确实仁者见仁,智者见智。我认为,邓大才先生的这篇文章,代表了许多同志的观点,值得推荐给更多的同志阅读,以期引起更多的同志思考5年粮改的成败得失与经验教训,改进粮食工作。主持人:我们知道,近两年来,您一直潜心研究粮食流通体制改革问题,那么,您同意邓大才先生的观点吗?林耘:我注意到,邓大才先生就粮改问题发表了不少文章,有很多观点确实…     

彻底消除粮食危机论的影响

这是我国著名经济学家茅于轼先生《寻求社会致富之道》一书中的一篇关于粮食安全问题的文章。此文观点鲜明,特点突出,很有代表性,我刊特予转载,并就此文涉及的内容,对四川省粮食局政策法规处林耘同志作了专题访谈。     

谁是粮改的最大赢家?

邓大才先生的文章提出了一个很尖锐的问题。因为篇幅所限,我们对原文作了节选,并对题目作了修改。为了引导读者参与讨论,我刊《体制改革》栏目主持人对近两年潜心研究粮食流通体制改革的四川省粮食局政策法规处林耘同志,就邓大才先生文章的主要观点,作了专题访谈,附在此文之后,欢迎大家争鸣。     

走过一年——致读者

亲爱的读者，这是我们在2009年的最后一次相见，我们即将与2009年挥手告别，跨入崭新的2010年的门槛。在这里，我们要感谢您这一年来对《中国粮食经济》的关注、支持与厚爱，并向您致以最真挚的新年祝福。     

新年贺辞

身披奋进的风尘,满怀胜利的喜悦,我们迎来了又一个崭新的春天。在这辞旧迎新之际,我很高兴通过《中国粮食经济》,代表国家粮食局向粮食行业的广大干部职工及其家属致以新春的慰问,向所有关心、支持我国粮食事业发展的各级领导和各界人士致以诚挚的谢意,向《中国粮食经济》的广大读者、作者致以新年的祝福!衷心祝愿大家在新的一年里身体健康,工作顺利,阖家幸福!     

评邓大才先生《粮食流通体制:行政管制与规范》

目前,有些高谈阔论、指点江山研究粮食经济的大块文章,其实并不真正了解粮食流通领域的现状。比如2003年《粮食经济研究》刊登的邓大才先生《粮食流通体制:行政管制与规范》(以下简称《规范》)一文,在剖析现行粮食流通体制行政干预过度的6大表现时,就充分反映出作者对粮食流通现状的陌生。例如,《规范》将“垄断收购渠道”列为行政干预的首条罪状,而实际情况又如何呢?众所周知,上世纪末国家将早籼稻和红小麦收购放开,本世纪初,全国又有13个省、市全面放开了粮食收购市场。今年安徽省在全省范围对农民实行直接补贴。新疆自治区宣布凡放开粮食…     

我国正在制定《中国21世纪议程》

四月,清明时节,春暖花开。 我们把本期的文章介绍给各位读者,希望各位读者能从中感受到春天的气息。 ——“经济透视”栏目内,编者向读者推荐两篇好文章,黄开旭先生的《近期中国宏观经济走势分析》一文,对今后两年中国经济走势作了分析,本文认为,94年我国经济增长将达12％以上,并有可能延续若干年。94年货币增幅35％以上,物价上涨幅度大致在10％之内,即不存在严重的通货膨胀。94年中国将形成新的外商投资高潮。本文的若干理论前提则值得商榷,如高速增长引起的货币发行量增大不会引发通货膨胀等,但本文不失为一篇有价值的文章。濮仲文先生的《我国正在制定〈中国21世纪议程〉》一文,向我们展示了世界各国未来21世纪的若干面貌,告诉我们,我国已开始着手制订《中国21世纪议程》,并向我们介绍了《议程》的若干内容。本文建议,上海要积极参与《议程》的制定,以上海的人口素质、枝术、资源、环境等优势条件为基础,率先进入21世纪,本文特别建议把崇明岛作为21世纪开发重点,争取把此项目列入《中国21世纪议程》。     

携手迎接二○○六

当您的目光投向2005年最后一期《中国粮食经济》时,请接受我们最诚 挚的谢意,感谢您长期以来对《中国粮食经济》的关注和支持。 时光总是在不经意间流逝,自1988年创刊以来,《中国粮食经济》已经 风风雨雨走过了17个春秋。作为粮食经济类期刊的发轫,《中国粮食经济》 本着为粮食工作者服务、为关注粮食工作的各界朋友服务、为粮食事业发展 服务的宗旨,为您传递及时有效清晰有力的声音,与您一起见证着粮改的进 程,一起探索着前进的道路,一起分享着粮食事业不断向前发展的喜悦……     

国家才是粮改的最大赢家--与邓大才先生争鸣

《粮食问题研究》2003年第3期发表的《谁是粮改的最大赢家》一文,作者邓大才先生通过对“当前粮食流通体制利益格局分析”,作出了“国有粮食部门成了粮改中最大赢家”的臆断,这与事实相左,与逻辑相悖,实有争鸣之必要。一、粮改利益格局浅析1998年以来,国家出台的一系列粮改政策,旨在“更好地保护农民的生产积极性和消费者利益,真正建立起适应社会主义市场经济要求,符合我国国情的粮食流通体制”。最终目标是“维护国家粮食安全和保护农民利益”。我们不仅不能从这些政策中找到让国有粮食部门成为最大受益者的政策依据,相反,中央制定任何一项…     

我对下川遗址出土石磨盘的看法——兼与黄崇岳、陈文华二先生商榷

自从《考古学报》1978年第3期所载王建先生等人的《下川文化——山西下川遗址调查报告》公布了下川旧石器遗址发现了三件残缺的石磨盘的材料以后,立即引起了一些探索我国农业起源的学者的注意,例如:1979年《中国农业科学》第二期发表的黄崇岳先生的《从出土文物看我国的原始农业》中就引证了这一材料。黄先生的文章说:这一发现“是旧石器时代晚期采集天然谷物加工成粮食的信息,使我们看到由原始采集经济向原始农业经济过渡的先兆。”1984年夏,《农业考古》杂志主编陈文华先生在文化部文物局郑州培训中心所     

The wealth of nature: economics as if survival mattered

Livestock play a key role in the lives of poor, rural people in developing countries, providing a major proportion of their cash income, capital assets, draught power, fuel and fertilizer. Rapid growth in demand for meat and dairy products in Asia presents both opportunities and challenges for livestock development and poverty alleviation. This paper explores the potential of livestock intensification to benefit the livelihoods of upland households and meet market demand in the Lao Peoples' Democratic Republic (Lao PDR), a South East Asian country undergoing significant economic change.

A review of the livestock sector in Asia shows increasing demand for live animals and meat in neighbouring Vietnam, Thailand and China. Lao PDR is well positioned to capitalize on the growing Asian livestock sector, however the extent livestock production in Lao PDR can reduce poverty, meet growing domestic meat demand and lift livestock exports is problematic. Findings from research in two upland northern provinces demonstrate how the introduction of forages for livestock has revolutionized the lives of some farmers and villages, but concludes that strategies are still needed to engage poorer households. The impacts of changing domestic and export markets are less certain, and are discussed within the context of environmental and public health, cultural traditions, economic development and sustainable livelihoods.     

Recalibrating the reported returns to agricultural R&D: what if we all heeded Griliches?*

Zvi Griliches’ seminal analysis of hybrid corn spawned a large literature seeking to quantify and demonstrate the value of agricultural research and development (R&D) investments. The most important metric for quantifying the rate of return to R&D emerging from this literature is the internal rate of return (IRR), even though Griliches was sceptical of its usefulness as a metric in this context. An alternative metric, also reported by Griliches but not as commonly used in the subsequent returns‐to‐research literature, is the benefit–cost ratio (BCR). We assess how the implications of the returns to agricultural R&D literature may have differed if the BCR had become the standard rather than the IRR. We reveal that the IRR and BCR produce substantially different rankings of agricultural R&D projects, differences that persist even under various commodity and geographical aggregations of the BCR and IRR estimates. The median across 2,627 reported IRRs is 37.5 per cent per year. Using data gleaned from 492 research evaluation studies, we developed and deployed a methodology to impute 2,126 BCRs (median of 5.4) and modified internal rates of returns (MIRRs, median of 16.4 per cent per year) assuming a uniform 10 per cent per year discount rate and a 30 year research timeline.     

资源要素及其变化对区域发展影响的量化分析 --以辽宁省抚顺市为例

以辽宁省抚顺市这一典型的资源导向型城市为例，在弄清其资源要素系统和区域发展模式的基础上，运用层次分析法(AHP定量分析各资源要素以及资源要素主体的变化对区域发展的影响，旨在为这类城市资源的合理配置和流动提供依据。     

Payments for environmental services in Indonesia: What if economic signals were lost in translation?

This article provides an analysis of a payment for environmental services (PES) scheme in the Cidanau watershed, Indonesia. It contributes to the debate on the alleged effectiveness of such economic incentives to actually change decisions among land users. Building on the standard PES theory of change, one would assume that farmers respond to payments and change their land use decisions accordingly for the delivery of environmental services. However, at the project level the impacts of economic incentives depend on how the signal is transmitted to decision-makers. An extensive household survey was undertaken among 270 participating farmers in order to investigate these assumptions. Results indicate that farmers join the scheme for intrinsic motivations rather than because of economic incentives. Besides, the scheme does not target farmers whose decisions could be changed for the sake of service provision. Finally, farmer group leaders display disproportionate power of decision while individual farmers have a low level of understanding of the PES programme. As a consequence, land use patterns might not depend on the economic incentive only; rather they are likely to be determined by the local social context, traditions and economic dependency on forests. This in turn casts some doubts on the strong (yet contested) economic assumptions that underlie the emergence of PES schemes and on their modus operandi in developing countries.     

Consumption effects of genetic modification: what if consumers are right?⋆

This paper develops a model of differentiated consumers to examine the consumption effects of genetic modification (GM) under alternative labelling regimes and segregation enforcement scenarios. Analytical results show that if consumers perceive GM products as being different than their traditional counterparts, GM affects consumer welfare and, thus, consumption decisions. When the existence of market imperfections in one or more stages of the supply chain prevents the transmission of cost savings associated with the new technology to consumers, GM results in welfare losses for consumers. The analysis shows that the relative welfare ranking of the ‘no labelling’ and ‘mandatory labelling’ regimes depends on: (i) the level of consumer aversion to GM products; (ii) the size of marketing and segregation costs under mandatory labelling; (iii) the share of the GM product in total production; and (iv) the extent to which GM products are incorrectly labelled as non‐GM products.     

"发哥":我们"死"了,你还能残喘几天?

我是粮食部门下岗职工,对粮食企业感情很深,一直喜欢读书看报.在拜读了<农业发展与金融>杂志2002年9期<粮大哥能在市场走多远?>一文之后,我认为该篇文章从题目到内容,从立论到论据,从作者的立场到观察问题的角度,均有值得商榷的地方.