The missing link: Bringing institutions and politics into energy future studies

Energy future studies can be a useful tool for learning about how to induce and manage technical, economic and policy change related to energy supply and use. The private sector has successfully deployed them for strategic planning, examining key parameters such as markets, competition and consumer trends. However in public policy, most energy future studies remain disconnected from policy making. One reason is that they often ignore the key political and institutional factors that underpin much of the anticipated, wished-for or otherwise explored energy systems developments. Still, we know that institutions and politics are critical enablers or constraints to technical and policy change. This paper examines how analytical insights into political and institutional dynamics can enhance energy future studies. It develops an approach that combines systems-technical change scenarios with political and institutional analysis. Using the example of a backcasting study dealing with the long term low-carbon transformation of a national energy system, it applies two levels of institutional and political analysis; at the level of international regimes and at the level of sectoral policy, and examines how future systems changes and policy paths are conditioned by institutional change processes. It finds that the systematic application of these variables significantly enhances and renders more useful backcasting studies of energy futures.     

“Every today was a tomorrow”: An integral method for indexing the social mediation of preferred futures

The visions we hold of the future, whether they are of utopias or dystopias, are not simply a matter of personal imagination. Our conceptions of the future are mediated to us as much as they are privately created by us. To this point, futures studies have not developed an integrative and broad-based framework for considering the social mediation of futures. Understanding how social mediation impacts on our futures visioning requires an interpretive framework that can cope with the multilayered nature of futures visions, the worldviews that are associated with them and a theory of mediation that can be applied within such a context of ‘depth’. Using theory-building methodology, the current paper attempts this task by describing a theory of social mediation that builds on the integral futures framework. An application of the framework explores the relationship between various scenarios of health care futures, their associated worldviews and the mediational factors that influence our visions of future health care systems.     

Time-scales in futures research and forecasting

In this article a study is presented of the ways in which some well-known futurists have considered time-scales in their central works, looking too at a few frequently applied forecasting methodologies. It is found, that there is obviously yet no common view of the extent of the time ahead meant for the terms future and futures and in using the time-horizon specifications, such as short-term and long-term. A survey of how time-scales are taken note of and presented in individual futures research articles is also given.On the basis of the study and survey made, the conclusions list three recommendations, which could be taken into consideration in futures studies.     

Computational cognitive assistants for futures studies: Toward vision based simulation

Many foresight researchers believe that quantitative simulations have a very restricted contribution in futures studies due to their simplicity and lack of creativity. While qualitative methods, taking advantage of the human cognitive system, have a great potential in addressing a wide range of problems in futures studies, this potential is mostly due to the human visual logic that can handle the task of imagining future scenarios much better than mathematical logic.On the other hand, computational methods benefit from the advantages of silicon-based systems namely speed, large memory, rapid networking, and communication. Hence, it would be extremely beneficial to come up with a solution that combines the positive sides of both qualitative and computational approaches. Cognitive artificial agents are computational units that make use of the human cognitive system. Their interaction with foresight and futures researchers can result in promising solutions for the problems addressed in futures studies. In addition, these agents can serve as a great source of inspiration for taking the first step towards vision based computers that can simulate humans’ imaginations of the future.This paper reviews some of the previous attempts in this field and finally sheds light on the main issues where methods in futures studies can play a key role in the future of Human Computer Interaction systems. Our suggested architecture for a future studies interactions-based system along with its justifications and specifications is provided in the form of a request for proposal.     

Choosing diverse sets of plausible scenarios in multidimensional exploratory futures techniques

Morphological analysis allows any number of dimensions to be retained when framing future conditions, and techniques within morphological analysis determine which combinations of those dimensions represent plausible futures. However, even a relatively low number of dimensions in future conditions can lead to hundreds or even thousands of plausible future scenarios. Creating highly diverse but conceivable visions of the future in which to explore decision-making, exploratory futures techniques rely on the selection of a small number of plausible scenarios from the larger set. In this paper we describe a new method for finding maximally diverse sets containing a small number of plausible scenarios from a multi-dimensional morphological analysis. It is based on a mathematical optimization of diversity that is robust to the uncertainty in the framing of future factors and states and in what stakeholders might consider diverse combinations of those factors and states. We also describe implementation of the method as a software tool and its performance in recent exploratory scenario development by CGIAR and partners for regional environmental change, food security and livelihoods.     

Ethical dilemmas: Teaching futures in schools

Educational policy is implicitly futures oriented, yet in most instances fails to engage learners with explicit futures tools and concepts at a school level. Futures studies in education, or futures education has the potential to reposition learning as purposeful and mobilizes the lives of participants by connecting the curriculum of schools with the multifaceted futures of learners. This is a complex task within the tensions often existing between: the cultural role of a school, the expectations of a society, the expertise of teachers, and the increasingly diverse needs of learners (Bateman, 2012). It is between the tensions of these things that the ‘ethical’ issues of what is taught, or omitted as content in a classroom and the consequences of these choices are evident.This paper highlights ethical and moral dilemmas, as they were apparent in two futures education projects. In the first study, the teachers discuss the inherent limitations of offering a broader and more futures oriented curriculum. In the second study, teachers reflect upon their students’ anxiety with regards to futures images as they are interrogated within a curriculum study. Each of these studies highlights the ethical challenges that arise, when possible, preferable and probable futures are developed as part of learning in school settings, which are culturally and demographically diverse.Tirri and Husu (2002) highlight the ethical dilemmas, which emerge in classrooms around the world, based on conflicts in values and competing intentions between key stakeholders. In the studies which contribute to this discussion, there is evidence to suggest that futures thinking causes conflict within an individual's perception of how the world should be, or their worldview as a result of futures imagining which goes beyond what is taken for granted, or is an assumed future eventuality. In the same way, Carrington, Deppeler, and Moss (2010) argue that all curriculum choices about what is taught (or not taught) in a classroom reflect an ethical decision made by a teacher, with regards to what is foregrounded for learning and what is omitted.It is crucial to re-examine the role of a school in educating students for their futures, as opposed to educating students with an aim of furthering governmental agendas. More significantly, however, as this paper highlights, it is exploring the boundaries of what is acceptable or unacceptable, appropriate or inappropriate to teach in a classroom, given the changing diversities of schools and education systems throughout the world.     

Factor pricing in commodity futures and the role of liquidity

This paper empirically investigates the pricing factors and their associated risk premiums of commodity futures. Existing pricing factors in equity and bond markets, including market premium and term structure, are tested in commodity futures markets. Hedging pressure in commodity futures markets and momentum effects is also considered. This study combines these factors to discuss their importance in explaining commodity future returns, while the literature has studied these factors separately. One of the important pricing factors in equity and bond markets is liquidity, but its role as a pricing factor in commodity futures markets has not yet been studied. To our knowledge, this research is the first to study liquidity as a pricing factor in commodity futures. The risk premiums of two momentum factors and speculators’ hedging pressure range from 2% to 3% per month and are greater than the risk premiums of roll yield (0.8%) and liquidity (0.5%). The result of a significant liquidity premium suggests that liquidity is priced in commodity futures.     

Framing adaptive capacity through a history–futures lens: Lessons from the South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative

This paper explores how the history–futures interface can inform a set of concrete adaptation options to climate change for stakeholders in South East Queensland, Australia. It is based on research undertaken as part of the Commonwealth funded South East Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQ-CARI) that profiled 33 historical case studies to identify common themes in the ways societies responded to stress. The case studies are intended to provide a context for thinking about adaptive capacity with stakeholders in the four areas of human settlement and health; energy; agriculture, forestry and fisheries; and ecosystems and biodiversity. The case studies demonstrate that adaptive capacity varies with context and is affected by the complexity, technology, leadership, institutions and imaginative resources inherent to the social system examined. To increase the possibilities for reflection by stakeholders, the case studies were used to create a set of historical scenarios that explore some of the key features of human responses to challenges such as climate change. This paper draws on this work to suggest a set of ‘practical’ lessons for those engaged with climate change today and into the future.     

Energy futures: Diversity and the need for assessment

In energy policy and energy research, decisions have to be made about the technologies and infrastructures that may be used to provide and distribute energy in future times, some of which are very distant. Frequently, energy futures such as predictions of the energy demand or energy scenarios are used for decision-support in this field. The diversity of energy futures, however, threatens any possibility for orientation, could lead to disorientation instead of helping more rational decision-making and could be used for ideological purpose. In this paper, we investigate concepts and approaches for scrutinizing, comparing and assessing the various energy futures from an epistemological point of view. Following the analysis of the structure of (energy) futures we will conclude that comparisons and assessments of energy futures should be made through processes of scrutiny and assessment, looking into the ingredients which have been used in constructing the respective futures, and into the process of their composition. Providing much more insight into the cognitive and normative structure of energy futures is required for allowing a more transparent and deliberative societal debate about future energy systems.     

Narratives of the future: Suspending disbelief in forest-sector scenarios

Scenario analysis considers highly uncertain future conditions. The method involves developing and analyzing plausible narratives of the future and evaluating them for a range of implications. The power of scenarios lies in creating and considering compelling stories about the future. Thus, narrative, defined as an account of a series of events, is central to the process and plays a pivotal role in engaging participants in a scenario analysis exercise. While a good scenario story can engage individuals and influence their suspension of disbelief, we know little about how participants actually respond to the scenarios so they can, and will, suspend disbelief in scenario outcomes.We explored the role of narrative in suspension of disbelief in a scenario-based study of the long-term future of Canada's forests and forest sector. We discovered that specific aspects of the scenario narratives themselves influenced participants’ suspension of disbelief. While interacting with the scenario narratives, participants actively worked to suspend disbelief by creating new narratives or accessing other existing ones, and by projecting themselves into the scenarios as characters in the stories. Our results may help scenario writers, practitioners, and researchers understand what, in one project, cued people's abilities to suspend disbelief and engage productively in discussions about possible futures.     

Revisiting a futures studies project—‘Reflections on 1985’

In 1962, a futures studies group was launched in France on behalf of the Commissariat au Plan, reporting directly to the French Prime Minister. The group aimed at ‘studying, on the basis of future-shaping elements, what should be known right now about 1985 France’. This paper revisits that important and original futures studies project, which encapsulated efficiently the dominant values and beliefs of a Western country at a turning point of its political and economical history.In its first part, this note recalls the French context in 1964, the frame of mind, and methodology of the group. Then the main findings of the Group 1985 are outlined, be it evolutions that inspired hope (a wealthier economy, improved living conditions), and also fears attached to the future (individual may face new dependencies and higher pressures, while some shortages could appear), which should be averted thanks to active policies in the fields of education, European unity, scientific research, or public administration reform. Last, this paper analyses both the strengths and weaknesses of the Group 1985 report, drawing lessons that remain valuable for contemporary studies on the future of a whole country.In 1962, Pierre Massé, then Commissaire au Plan, set up a futures study Group chaired by Pierre Guillaumat. The Group published in 1964 a report entitled ‘Reflections on 1985’ which was a stimulating futures studies work. ALEPH thought fruitful to revisit this document.     

‘Exploratory landscape scenarios’ in the formulation of ‘landscape quality objectives’

The European Landscape Convention (ELC) calls for the definition of ‘landscape quality objectives’ (LQO) as “the formulation by the competent public authorities of the aspirations of the public with regard to the landscape features of their surroundings”. However, it is not yet defined how the integration of the visions of the public should be carried out. Notably in regions with poor participatory culture and in rural landscapes abandoned by people and consequently by their activities, dealing with the future does not seem a straightforward task. In these marginal rural landscapes the role of agriculture is being altered under the influence of the new rationale of the Common Agriculture Policy, so it may have to assume different functions in the future. Thus, this paper aims at showing how the development of ‘exploratory landscape scenarios’ can be a useful tool, firstly to find plausible landscape futures, and secondly to trigger discussions with the public regarding their aspirations for their landscape. The development procedure for ‘exploratory landscape scenarios’ builds on the ‘intuitive logics’ approach that focuses on the production of a variety of scenarios as starting point for discussion about the future rather than on finding an optimal one, which can limit the options unnecessarily from the beginning. The methodological approach is illustrated at a local scale by using the case study of Mértola in southeast Portugal. The results of the scenario exercise point out the adequateness of the methodology in the development of futures that are perceived as plausible by local stakeholders and, thereby, able to bring out their desires and threats towards the future of their landscape.     

Peru in the 21st century : Challenges and possibilities

The Peruvian 21st century study, initially conceived in 1981 and still going on, is a large programme consisting of several interlinked projects. Simulations have been done on the future of 10 key national sectors, and these simulations have then been integrated to produce scenarios describing alternative feasible futures. At the same time, a group of desired scenarios has been constructed using personal interviews and a consultation process. There has been initial work on a third project examining key external factors affecting Peruvian development. Still to be undertaken are projects identifying specific development strategies and analysing the national planning process. Especially noteworthy products of the study are the user-friendly spreadsheet models, which make the feasible futures component of the study highly accessible to interested decision makers.     

Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part II. Participatory local scenario development

This paper builds on Part I, where three European and Mediterranean scenarios were introduced. Theses scenarios can be typified as qualitative, integrated narrative storylines that describe three possible directions of future change until 2030. The main purpose of the paper is to summarise the methods and results of a series of stakeholder workshops held in the Guadalentín (Spain) and the Val d'Agri (Italy) to develop local scenarios, using the Mediterranean scenarios as boundary conditions. Two workshops were organised in both watersheds, employing different methods to develop short-term and long-term future outlooks. During the first workshop an exploratory forecasting methodology was employed. By means of a collage of images, stakeholders constructed three future images linked to three Mediterranean scenarios. In the second workshop, a discussion on the short-term outlook based on current trends was followed by a backcasting exercise. The various methods yielded highly complementary results, with detailed short-term developments, rather general yet highly creative visions of the long-term future, and a set of desirable futures. It is argued that such a mix of methods has increased the quality and comprehensiveness of the results. In any case, these efforts should be but the onset of long-term stakeholder participation.     

Colonising the future: Mega-trade deals,education services and global higher education markets

This paper explores a less well-examined aspect of time in relation to higher education and the academy; that of ‘time-future’. The paper takes the case of education trade strategies being pursued by governments and allied agencies, and explores the multiple ways in which time-future is mobilised. Drawing on trade documents, government statistics, and related reports, the paper points to two time-future dynamics at work. The first dynamic focuses on the ways in which the future is imagined by strategic actors, and legitimated through creating equivalences between education trade, economic growth and prosperity. The second dynamic explores the ways in which the current round of global and regional trade negotiations colonise the future as a political resource. I reflect on how time-future is a key resource and modality of power to be claimed and cognitively shaped so as to reorient actor’s expectations towards the rhythms and demands of capitalism, and away from the temporal orders of the academy. However, efforts to commodify higher education, on the one hand, and colonise higher education futures exclusively to serve the interests of economic investors, on the other, continues to be contested. As a result, a new temporal order is yet to become common-sense, and an existing order is yet to die.     

Delphi in a future scenario study on mental health and mental health care

The article highlights methodological issues of futures research on mental health (care). In particular the limited relevance of quantitative psychiatric epidemiology is emphasized. The mental health sector in the Netherlands is characterized as a balance of power between professionals, institutions, insurance companies, patient organizations and local and national governments. To value shifts in this balance and to assess future interventions and policies, opinions of people who know the sector well are indispensable. Delphi with its main characteristics of anonymity, iteration and feedback to the participants and being a predominantly qualitative method for data collection was chosen to gather this type of information. Finally the Delphi method as a tool in policy-oriented futures research is discussed. The strength of Delphi must be found in its capacity to generate new options for intervention and to enhance consciousness of the future in order to reinforce rationality of decision processes. Clarifying dissensus on the issues under study proved to be as relevant as the elucidation of consensus.     

From metaphoric litany text to scenarios—How to use metaphors in futures studies

Metaphor and metonymy belong to the key concepts of semiotics and general linguistics. As illustrations of scenarios, metaphors already have a long history in the futures studies, too. Metaphors were discussed in the CLA Reader 1.0¹ (Inayatullah ed., 2004) but the CLA Reader 2.0 edited by Inayatullah and Milojevic (2015) gives metaphors the central role in futures research² that they deserve. The article compares the approaches of semiotics and the CLA and suggests practical steps for the analysis of metaphoric futures oriented texts and their use in the construction of scenarios. Assuming that the litany is a text, metaphors may be present on all levels of the CLA: litany, systemic causes, worldview and myth/emotion. Metaphors are suitable even for the illustration of the CLA second level quantitative causal relations between variables. As an illustrating case study, we analyze a text that suggests the great future of the Northern Sea Route. The deconstruction of the litany results in two narratives or scenarios. They are constructed utilizing proverbs and other metaphoric sayings that get many citations on the Internet.     

Marking the future: a review of time horizons

This paper examines the variety of time horizons used by futures researchers. It summarizes responses from a survey that asked future researches (1) how far ahead they think about the future, (2) why they choose their time intervals, and (3) the importance of being clear about time intervals for the future. Findings reveal that time horizons differ and are generally shaped by the nature of each futures researcher's work. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of time horizons and importance of futures research.     

Futures studies: From individual to social capacity

Futures study is not yet well established at the social level. Given the unstable conditions of the late 20th century, and the challenging outlook of the early 21st, this is a serious oversight. The article considers how futures studies can be progressively developed through five distinct layers, or levels. First is the natural capacity of the human brain/mind system to envisage a range of futures. Second, is the clarifying, enlivening and motivating role of futures concepts and ideas. Third are analytic gains provided by futures tools and methods. Fourth are a range of practical and intellectual applications, or contexts. When each of these levels functions in a coordinated way, grounds for the emergence of futures studies at the social level can clearly be seen. The article concludes with a brief summary of a preferred future which would arguably be within reach if futures studies were to progress along such a path from individual to social capacity.     

Experiences of the development and use of scenarios for evaluating Swedish environmental quality objectives

This paper presents and evaluates a method for encouraging long-term thinking and for considering a variety of scenarios in environmental policy processes. The Swedish environmental policy is based on 16 environmental quality objectives (EQOs) that national authorities are obliged to observe. These objectives are reviewed annually and evaluated in depth every four years. Here we describe and explore a futures study project for introducing more long-term thinking into work on the EQOs, which we tested in the in-depth evaluation in 2008. We found it difficult to design a collective scenario for a case with a wide variety of objectives and individuals with different backgrounds. However, this difficulty makes it even more important to incorporate futures studies into the work of the relevant authorities. Scenario work is often subcontracted, leading to a constant lack of futures studies expertise and thinking within authorities. Despite the difficulties, we found that experts within the authorities did begin to recognise the opportunities provided by futures studies. The project revealed an interest and need for futures studies within the authorities in charge of Swedish environmental quality objectives and our findings show that the authorities need to build up their own skills in futures studies.