Postformal priorities for postnormal times: A rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar

This essay is a postformal rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar's Welcome to Postnormal Times. I have no quarrel with Sardar's conclusion that these times are postnormal, nor do I disagree with many of his observations, but our standpoints regarding implications are somewhat contradictory. Paradoxically, rather than jump into an old paradigm form of debate with Sardar's interpretations of postnormalcy, this rejoinder is a playful postformal response. I celebrate our complementary views as expressions of the complex truths of multiperspectivality. First I question the meaning of normal and postnormal in the context of such notions as “the pathology of normalcy.” Secondly I begin to explore the postnormal circumstances from a postformal perspective. This involves discussion of notions of progress, development, evolution and co-evolution from different points of view as an opener to coming to terms with complexity. I then explore how concepts such as complexity and paradox can be understood as paths to wisdom; how active imagination can be engaged in the service of life; and how engaged imagination can unfold new normative narratives of alternative futures. Such imaginaries of hope are vital for the wellbeing of young people. The essay closes with a call to embrace the richness of complexity and play with—rather than fear—the paradox of planetary pluralism.     

Postnormal network futures: A rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar

Sardar's “Welcome to Postnormal Times” describes the chaotic, contradictory and uncertain climate today, and analyses the failure of progress, modernisation or efficiency to provide ethical, political or even trustworthy economic solutions to the instability of the present. Missing in his analysis is the role of knowledge, especially as it is migrating from individuals to technical networks. This paper argues that recent developments in the networking of knowledge point towards a new constellation in which networks are emerging as major powers alongside the nation and the market, the two pillars of global political economy in the 20th and early 21st century. It responds to Sardar's challenge to imagine the future by imagining the political consequences of recognising non-human agencies as political actors.     

Memories and methods: conversations with Ashis Nandy, Ziauddin Sardar and Richard Slaughter

The history and development of futures studies is explored in interviews with three leading futurists. Ashis Nandy, Ziauddin Sardar and Richard Slaughter provide a personal perspective on their involvement in the field and the World Futures Studies Federation and reflect on future possibilities.     

Futurists and their schools: A response to Ziauddin Sardar's ‘the namesake’

A ‘futurist’ is the generic term for someone seriously engaged in the consideration of future conditions. ‘Futures research’ has a systems science orientation with a planning horizon in excess of 10 years. ‘Futures studies’ has a social science connotation and ‘foresight’ is the most popular term within the management science and corporate sectors. Five schools of futures researchers are defined: 1. Environmental and geosciences. 2. Infrastructure systems and engineering technology. 3. Social, political and economic science. 4. Human life, mind and information science. 5. Business and management science. The academic route to a futures qualification is outlined with a list of futures orientated organisations. The inclusion of urbanisation in the next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, would involve replacing the notion of economic equilibrium by the concept of far-from-equilibrium stability. Finally futures research is described as an evolutionary science, which will possibly become integrated within complexity science by 2050.     

Engineering ethics and post-normal science: A French perspective

The paper identifies three failures of current engineering ethics and suggests that a post-normal turn may help redesign a more demanding ethics for engineering practice. Finally it outlines some difficulties that such a post-normal engineering ethics may face, especially in the French context.     

Alliterative logic: A theory for postnormal times

This commentary responds to some of the issues raised in Zia Sardar's paper “Welcome to Postnormal Times” noting and attempting to explain points of difference and similarity. From Sardar's invocation of the 3C's of complexity, chaos and contradiction emerges the idea that our postnormal times might be likened to the strange times following the Great Plague that gave rise to the Alliterative Revival. Speculating further, it is questioned whether, in such strange times, utopian futures studies substitute for prayer.     

Futures-thinking and identity: Why “Futures Studies” is not a field, discipline, or discourse: a response to Ziauddin Sardar's ‘the namesake’

The term we use to describe the study or research of the future or futures is indeed important, and “futures studies” is preferable, although there is considerable dispute as to who and what is involved. Even more important is the far deeper problem of defining the “we” and what “we” in fact do. Futures studies not only considers wickedly complex problems, but it is itself a wicked entity, with many puzzles and contradictions. To illustrate, a taxonomy of 12 types of futurists, first articulated in 1985, is revisited, with special emphasis on the relative handful of Synoptic Generalists, the larger category of Specialized Futurists, the still larger entity of Futurized Specialists, and the largest entity of Closet Futurists who think about futures-often in a leading-edge way-but do not identify at all with futures studies, or are seen as futurists. Most contributors to Futures and other futures journals, as well as listees in the 2000 Futurist Directory, appear to have a secondary “futurist” identity at best. The fuzzy entity of “futures studies” is thus quite unlike any field or discipline, because it is easily entered by specialists who identify with the entity weakly, while many of the most important futures-thinkers are outside the entity. Instead of denying this paradox, the reality should be acknowledged, and an alterative paradigm for “futures studies” should be seriously considered.     

A reading guide for last passage times with financial applications in view

In this survey on last passage times, we propose a new viewpoint which provides a unified approach to many different results which appear in the mathematical finance literature and in the theory of stochastic processes. In particular, we are able to improve the assumptions under which some well-known results are usually stated. Moreover we give some new and detailed calculations for the computation of the distribution of some large classes of last passage times. We have kept in this survey only the aspects of the theory which we expect potentially to be relevant for financial applications.     

宏观审慎政策框架和工具:问题和经验总结

成功的宏观审慎政策有助于稳定经济,但中央银行在宏观审慎政策框架的开发和应用方面也面临一系列诸如应如何界定宏观审慎政策和应如何操作宏观审慎政策工具等问题.国际清算银行全球金融体系委员会(CGFS)的这份报告讨论了宏观审慎政策的目标和不同类型的宏观审慎政策工具,探讨了宏观审慎政策工具的运用,以及宏观审慎政策工具在一系列经济体中的实际使用经验,最后总结了初步研究结果和存在的问题.     

Effacing the political future : A response to

Political change within industrial countries will accompany the restructuring of economies and international relations in the 1980s. The most detailed study of alternative scenarios involving the latter issues—the report—treats domestic politics in terms of notions of value change. This article criticises these widespread ideas. Futures studies need to take political trends seriously, including those towards corporatism and the strong state. In this light the development of the informal sector can be no panacea for problems of political and economic power.     

Anti-bribery disclosures: A response to networked governance

This study examined the posited link between networked governance (the activities of NGOs and the media) and the anti-bribery disclosures of two global telecommunication companies. Based on a joint consideration of legitimacy theory, media agenda setting theory and responsive regulation, the findings show that anti-bribery disclosures are positively associated with the activities of the media and NGO initiatives. The findings also show that companies make anti-bribery disclosures to maintain symbolic legitimacy but are less prominent in effecting a substantive change in their accountability practices.     

Auditing,Reasoning Systems,Reporting Frameworks,and Accounting Policy Risk: A Response to Alexander

This response to Alexander (2010 ) clarifies the approach taken in Smieliauskas et al. (2008 ). Here we elaborate further on the significance of the accounting risk concept for fairness of presentation in financial reporting. In the process we show how Alexander's potentially important concept of accounting policy risk can be made operational via the concept of accounting risk.     

Effacing the political future: A response to interfutures

Political change within industrial countries will accompany the restructuring of economies and international relations in the 1980s. The most detailed study of alternative scenarios involving the latter issues—the interfutures report—treats domestic politics in terms of notions of value change. This article criticises these widespread ideas. Futures studies need to take political trends seriously, including those towards corporatism and the strong state. In this light the development of the informal sector can be no panacea for problems of political and economic power.     

Integration managers: special leaders for special times

Although the integration of an acquired company with the parent organization is a delicate and complicated process, traditionally no one has ever been responsible for that process--for charting how the two companies will combine their operations, for seeing to it that the integration project meets its deadlines and performance targets, and for educating the new people about the parent company and vice versa. Some enlightened companies have recognized this gap and have appointed a guide--the integration manager--to shepherd everyone through the rocky territory that two organizations must cross before they can function effectively together. The authors have interviewed a number of these leaders in depth, as well as some of the people with whom they've worked. They've determined that integration managers help the merger process in four principal ways: they speed it up, create a structure for it, forge social connections between the two organizations, and help engineer short-term successes. In this article, the authors detail five acquisitions--at TI, General Cable, Meritor Automotive, Lucent, and Johnson & Johnson--and discuss the role that integration managers played in each. They describe exactly what sort of person should do this job. The integration manager must be able to jump into complex situations quickly, relate to many levels of authority smoothly, and bridge gaps in culture and perception. The ever-changing organizations of the Internet age will need leaders with similar skills. In fact, the authors contend, the integration manager should be considered a prototype for the leader of the future.