From vision to action: Framing the Leitbild concept in the context of landscape planning

Reviewing landscape developments in the last decades evidently shows that in the future most pressing changes can be expected for the land surface. This indispensably calls for strategic approaches based on visions and transdisciplinary creativity. Hence, this paper critically reviews the Leitbild concept, an idea on spatial planning which has been widely discussed in the German-speaking planning literature but which has received scant attention elsewhere. Although the term has been translated as a ‘vision’, this paper shows that the concept is far richer in its content than these casual translations suggest. The paper shows that it defines a particular paradigm for landscape planning that embodies a transdisciplinary approach in which lay-people and experts develop both goals and strategies for realising their joint visions. A systematic overview of the key characteristics that make up the Leitbild approach is provided and set in relation to already available approaches for decision makers. Although there are similarities between the Leitbild approach and other planning and decision-support tools, such as Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), Strategic Impact Assessment (SEA) and Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA-sust), the paper shows that the particular combination of issues considered when developing a Leitbild makes it distinctive. Through an iterative process, the development of a Leitbild allows new approaches to spatial planning in which space and place can be considered as a social construct, and in which the values and understandings of local actors can be better represented.     

Participative landscape planning in rural areas: A case study from Novodvorsko, Žehušicko,Czech Republic

According to the European Landscape Convention, landscape quality objectives should be defined for assessed landscapes as a part of landscape policies. The pilot study for Novodvorsko and Žehušicko in Central Bohemia is focused on sustainable landscape development with regard to the economic development, but also on the protection of natural and socio-cultural landscape qualities. The aim of this study is to investigate the implementation of the European Landscape Convention at the local level. The landscape quality objective should be a long-term strategic vision for making a landscape policy that could be used as a basis for strategic landscape planning documents. First, a landscape diagnosis was proposed. Then, four different scenarios for landscape development were assessed (integration, segregation, exploitation, and abandonment scenario). Finally, a landscape quality objective was developed. All process was closely connected with participative landscape planning; local stakeholders were involved to the whole process.     

‘Exploratory landscape scenarios’ in the formulation of ‘landscape quality objectives’

The European Landscape Convention (ELC) calls for the definition of ‘landscape quality objectives’ (LQO) as “the formulation by the competent public authorities of the aspirations of the public with regard to the landscape features of their surroundings”. However, it is not yet defined how the integration of the visions of the public should be carried out. Notably in regions with poor participatory culture and in rural landscapes abandoned by people and consequently by their activities, dealing with the future does not seem a straightforward task. In these marginal rural landscapes the role of agriculture is being altered under the influence of the new rationale of the Common Agriculture Policy, so it may have to assume different functions in the future. Thus, this paper aims at showing how the development of ‘exploratory landscape scenarios’ can be a useful tool, firstly to find plausible landscape futures, and secondly to trigger discussions with the public regarding their aspirations for their landscape. The development procedure for ‘exploratory landscape scenarios’ builds on the ‘intuitive logics’ approach that focuses on the production of a variety of scenarios as starting point for discussion about the future rather than on finding an optimal one, which can limit the options unnecessarily from the beginning. The methodological approach is illustrated at a local scale by using the case study of Mértola in southeast Portugal. The results of the scenario exercise point out the adequateness of the methodology in the development of futures that are perceived as plausible by local stakeholders and, thereby, able to bring out their desires and threats towards the future of their landscape.     

Making visions visible for long-term landscape management

Results generated by planning and futures studies are often too abstract to provide a clear vision of the future to non-specialists. In this study the role of 3D visualization and the challenges in developing and communicating visible visions for our future landscapes is explored. While traditional visualization techniques have been well-known for several hundreds of years digital 3D visualizations are still not yet taken advantage of in long-term planning or in futures studies in general to their full potential. As part of an iterative consultation and participation process a long-term vision for the landscape and land management of the Alport Valley in the Peak District National Park, UK is developed in order to improve the valley's special landscape character, to enhance the valley's visual and recreational attractiveness, to regenerate the woodlands in ways that maximize the long-term benefit of ecology, wildlife and landscape and to get a good balance between wooded areas and open moorland.An early integration of 3D visualization in the planning process offers a wide range of opportunities for exploring alternative futures but it also poses challenges to the expert planners such as being able to react timely, with a high degree of realism and interactively to incorporate new inputs from participating stakeholders. Furthermore, the planner is forced to translate a vision into concrete geographically referenced data. Only then the vision can be visualized. The full potential of 3D visualizations in the planning disciplines and in futures studies is still to be explored. The visualizations could be the basis to communicate the vision - the views of the future - and to share the vision with others in order to influence future change.     

Managing the landscapes of the Australian Northern Territory for sustainability: Visions, issues and strategies for successful planning

The Northern Territory in Australia is a unique place. The region covers one sixth of the land mass of Australia with a population of only 200 000 people. One third of this population is indigenous and just over half of the land is under Aboriginal land title (mostly communal ownership). The landscapes in this region are still in a relatively good condition yet a large proportion of the indigenous population that reside within them are seen to be living with major social and health problems. The governance of the region is a complex mixture of Federal, Territory, and local Government, as well as indigenous and non-indigenous land ownership. To date, planning has largely been ad hoc and influenced by external factors, with little regard for Aboriginal aspirations for the future. Currently there is growing interest in developing the region which would appear to be associated with a drought that is adversely affecting the agricultural potential of southern States of Australia. This paper discusses some of the issues associated with the lack of a shared vision for the future of the NT. It recommends the use of an integrated holistic approach to planning, as defined by a Leitbild, as a strategy for creating a shared vision and working towards successful sustainable landscape planning. Other strategies put forward include placing an economic value on the ecological and cultural significance of the region, in particular providing real jobs on remote Aboriginal communities through developing enterprises based on sustainable use of wildlife and payment for the ecosystem services that Aboriginal land management provides, and applying more empowering methods of participation in scenario modelling for the future using Geographic Information Systems and other visualisation technology.     

Risk landscapes in the era of social transition

The notions of risk and risk landscape provide useful tools for futures research, concerned as it is with the contingent, future courses of events. Our key concept, the risk landscape, refers to the network of possible worlds shaped by the beliefs, expectations and fears of human actors. We propose that so-called late modern times are characterised by changing risk landscapes, dominated by such risks as climate change. These new risks are highly theoretical, dependent on expert knowledge, and the distribution of costs and benefits related to them does not obey national or class boundaries.     

Futurists and their schools: A response to Ziauddin Sardar's ‘the namesake’

A ‘futurist’ is the generic term for someone seriously engaged in the consideration of future conditions. ‘Futures research’ has a systems science orientation with a planning horizon in excess of 10 years. ‘Futures studies’ has a social science connotation and ‘foresight’ is the most popular term within the management science and corporate sectors. Five schools of futures researchers are defined: 1. Environmental and geosciences. 2. Infrastructure systems and engineering technology. 3. Social, political and economic science. 4. Human life, mind and information science. 5. Business and management science. The academic route to a futures qualification is outlined with a list of futures orientated organisations. The inclusion of urbanisation in the next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, would involve replacing the notion of economic equilibrium by the concept of far-from-equilibrium stability. Finally futures research is described as an evolutionary science, which will possibly become integrated within complexity science by 2050.     

The missing link: Bringing institutions and politics into energy future studies

Energy future studies can be a useful tool for learning about how to induce and manage technical, economic and policy change related to energy supply and use. The private sector has successfully deployed them for strategic planning, examining key parameters such as markets, competition and consumer trends. However in public policy, most energy future studies remain disconnected from policy making. One reason is that they often ignore the key political and institutional factors that underpin much of the anticipated, wished-for or otherwise explored energy systems developments. Still, we know that institutions and politics are critical enablers or constraints to technical and policy change. This paper examines how analytical insights into political and institutional dynamics can enhance energy future studies. It develops an approach that combines systems-technical change scenarios with political and institutional analysis. Using the example of a backcasting study dealing with the long term low-carbon transformation of a national energy system, it applies two levels of institutional and political analysis; at the level of international regimes and at the level of sectoral policy, and examines how future systems changes and policy paths are conditioned by institutional change processes. It finds that the systematic application of these variables significantly enhances and renders more useful backcasting studies of energy futures.     

中国特色社会保障制度发展的基本理念——基于科学发展观的视角

科学发展观是指导发展的世界观和方法论的集中体现,是中国共产党准确把握世界政治经济发展形势,总结改革开放以来经验所形成的战略指导方针,是解决当前经济社会发展中诸多矛盾必须遵循的基本原则,也是现阶段建设中国特色社会保障制度必须牢固树立的科学理念.科学发展观的提出,在理论上深化了对中国特色社会保障制度的认识,为实现社会保障制度设计与社会主义基本制度更好地结合,为社会保障政策制订深入贯穿"人民性",为科学地评估制度效能,妥善处理各种利益关系,实现社会保障事业在战略机遇期快速、科学、全面地发展,奠定了基础.     

The new matrix of political action

The increasing diversity of political involvement from the 1960s onwards led to an international study designed to explain the style of political action, and the protest potential in five countries: Britain, the USA, West Germany, Austria, and the Netherlands. The study identified five types of political involvement (inactives, conformists, reformists, activists, and protesters) together with their corresponding characteristics (including age, sex, education, and values). The number of reformists and activists is likely to increase, while the protesters pose a random threat to society. They appear to have a commitment to action but to little else. Their future impact depends on who mobilises them first.     

Risk assessment for public–private partnership projects: using a fuzzy analytic hierarchical process method and expert opinion in China

Public–private partnerships (PPP) have been widely used in China to procure public facilities and services. Complicated problems in PPP projects in China arise because of a variety of risk factors. A proper risk assessment model is needed to identify risks and provide risk response strategies for future Chinese PPP projects. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) method provides the ability to solve complex risk assessment of PPP projects. Current risk assessment models are limited to PPP projects in specific countries and do not consider unique risks in China, especially political, economic, social, and legal risks. This paper designed a risk evaluation index system for PPP projects based on the Delphi expert investigation method, and then established an optimized risk evaluation model for PPP projects in China using the F-AHP method. The risks identified are confirmed by interviewing experts from Chinese local government departments, private enterprise, third-party intermediary consulting and regulatory agencies, and academic organizations. The results show that the risks that ranked among the top ten are closely related to China’s political and economic policies and relationships among stakeholders. It can be concluded that government authorities play a critical role in providing a favorable political, social, and economic environment and an effective institutional framework for PPP projects. Furthermore, it is also important to deal with relationships among stakeholders based on the public–private ‘win–win’ principle. This study provides risk response strategies, addressing key issues from eight aspects: an impeccable legal and regulatory framework; a central coordinating and regulating PPP authority; supportive governmental authorities; institutional capacity-building; favorable economic conditions and viability; community, partner, and moral accountability; clear division of responsibilities through contracts; and effective advisory management. These effective measures may be useful in reducing the adverse effects of risk for PPP projects in China.     

Implementing budgetary control in the performing arts: games in the organizational theatre

When administrators or political bodies try to enforce implementation of new management control systems on organizations, various forms of conflicts and games may be observed in the implementation process. Different rationalities are brought face-to-face in the discourse on implementation, and the process will be influenced by some form of political behaviour. A political perspective will call attention to such issues as the players, power and games. By adopting the concept of budget games in an analysis of the actions related to the implementation process we try to show how we can gain a better understanding of the behaviour exhibited by the various groups involved and of the outcome of the process. Observations from a case study of the Royal Danish Theatre show how different budget games emerge in a process in which the Theatre, the Danish Treasury Department, and various actors inside and outside the theatre have been engaged over a period of 15 years, in an attempt to implement a new management control system at the theatre. The management control system being implemented is a combination of a new accounting system and a new planning and budget system. First, we will discuss the strengths of the concept of budget games and the possibilities that it offers for a better understanding of organizational actions related to the implementation of budgeting systems. In addition, we will look at reforms in the public sector with a special view to the role of budgetary control systems. A framework for using budget games as an analytical tool in understanding implementation processes is developed and applied to the case. The analysis shows how various budget games emerge in the organizational field. The budget games start when an individual or a group wants to address an issue and encounters opponents. The analysis also demonstrates how one budget game may create a counter-game. Finally, the findings and their implications are discussed. The analysis demonstrates the usefulness of the budget game perspective in understanding the implementation of accounting systems and the behaviour of the various groups involved or af fected by the system.     

Three scenarios for the greater Hamburg region

In this paper, three scenarios for the metropolitan region of Hamburg within the next 30 years are presented. The scenarios are based on an assessment of decisions, opportunities and bottlenecks faced by the region in the areas of economic restructuring, demographic and societal changes, city-development and environmental changes. Many core questions that the region is dealing with are representative for Western European cities and highly industrialised regions worldwide. Accordingly, insights gained about strategies and future possibilities for the study region may be of use to other metropolitan regions. Extensive expert interviews were combined with a comparative analysis of the strong and weak points in the development of Hamburg and other big cities to identify trends and critical and strategic success factors. It is argued that economic, political, societal and environmental processes evolve in close interdependency and need to be treated in conjunction. A central question in this context is the meaning of radically different routes of port development—expansion, re-orientation and discontinuation—for the city's economy, the region's environment and socio-cultural renewal. Beneficial outcomes for quality of life, economic development and environmental state are generally found to depend on a combination of economic, societal and political requirements.     

Systems approaches to economic development for indigenous people: a case study of the Noongar Aboriginals of Australia

This paper illustrates a case study in the application of systems approaches to securing economic development for a specific group of indigenous people in Australia. The case study combines Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) with Effects-Based Operations (EBO) planning to realise more purposeful actions and endeavours in pursuit of economic development. The approach is a hybrid of Checkland’s Soft Systems Methodology (SSM), Rhyne’s FAR and an advancement of the EBO process emerging from within national security domains. The paper focuses primarily on the use of FAR as a means of understanding an economic development problem space within a present and future orientation, with minor reference to EBO planning as a method of bringing about purposeful change within a combined solution and design space. The paper seeks to demonstrate the utility of ‘soft’ approaches, such as FAR, in the exploration of economic undevelopment and how more purposeful corrective actions can result if they are harnessed to a deepened understanding of the problem space.     

Democracy in the ageing society: Quest for political equilibrium between generations

The ageing of society looms large as having a huge impact on the future political landscape, and is increasingly being acknowledged as a serious threat to the sustainability of democracy. The ageing of the voting electorate is contributing to the political imbalance between the old and young generations, and has the potential to levy excessive burden on future generations. With this background in mind, this research seeks to point out, through reform of the electoral system, the problems of silver democracy caused by societal ageing, and to suggest ways to achieve political equilibrium between generations. Key suggestions are: 1) changing the basis of electoral districts from geographic area to age-cohort; 2) establishment of a new future generations district which can speak for the rights of those who are currently underage; and 3) weighting of votes cast by the younger generations, who may be at a numerical disadvantage in elections.     

Futures studies’ backcasting method used for strategic sustainable city planning

Achieving a sustainable city requires long-term visions, integration and a system-oriented approach to addressing economic, environmental and social issues. This paper case studies a sustainable city planning project, Göteborg 2050, that uses the backcasting method. Visionary images of a long-term sustainable future can stimulate an accelerated movement towards sustainability. The paper describes a special kind of scenario methodology to build a future model for city development as a planning tool in facilitating a sustainable society. Backcasting in futures studies is widely discussed together with the comparison of three selected backcasting approaches, including Robinson's approach, The Natural Step Framework, and the Sustainable Technology Development approach. The purposes of this paper are to examine and discuss the use of the backcasting method within the Project Göteborg 2050, lessons learned and findings drawn from the experience. The case study shows that backcasting is an appropriate method in developing action plans for achieving urban sustainability. This work can be served as a model for sustainable city planning in Thailand as well as other countries.     

Exploring long-term business climates and strategies with interax

A major objective of corporate strategic planning is to minimize the surprises the future may bring, and INTERAX (developed at the Center for Futures Research with industrial sponsorship) draws on cross-impact matrices and scenario generation to allow alternative futures to be explored. This paper outlines the method, and summarizes part of the present database—a Delphi study of possible social, economic, and political developments, internationally and within the USA.     

An Assessment of the Currency Board Regime in Bosnia and Herzegovina

This paper describes currency board regime operations in Bosnia and Herzegovina and assesses their performance and sustainability in the context of the economic, political, and institutional environment. To the best of our knowledge, our study seems to be unique in this respect. Based on our analysis, we judge that Bosnia and Herzegovina's currency board regime is well suited and appropriate, given the country's history, its current state, and its future goals. Nevertheless, we believe that the key to the currency board's sustainability, and an eventual accession to the European Union, is a stronger legal and regulatory infrastructure and a more unified political system.     

Evaluating the use of an integrated forest land-use planning approach in addressing forest ecosystem services conflicting demands: Experience within an Irish forest landscape

There is an increasing demand for genuine public participation in Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) planning to address the various demands for forests to deliver a range of ecosystem services. However, as of yet, there are few developed and tested mechanisms to help authorities and stakeholders with diverse interests to effectively work together to reach a common goal. Integrated Forest Land-Use Planning (IFLUP) is an approach that has the potential to accommodate multi-stakeholders’ demands in the field of SFM planning. In this paper an IFLUP framework process that facilitates stakeholder participation in future-oriented SFM planning is explored. This framework combines scenario analysis and stakeholder collaborative learning. Its application in a case study area in the West of Ireland is outlined and its effectiveness in accommodating conflicting stakeholder demands on forest ecosystem services as well as its potential opportunities and challenges are evaluated.Based on the results and participants evaluation feedback of the IFLUP workshop outcomes, there was a shared view that the IFLUP approach has potential to address conflicting societal demands on forest ecosystem services within local forest landscapes. Likewise, collaborative learning process helps build trust and respect among stakeholder groups as well as improving the legitimacy and acceptance of SFM planning outcomes.     

Surviving progress: managing the collective risks of civilization

As optimism is becoming ever more apparent, progress carries with it both promise and pitfalls. Though it is quite natural for humans to take an optimistic view of life, this optimism must at the same time be tempered with realism. We cannot therefore let a focus on average, or expected, outcomes cause us to ignore possible high-stakes (existential) risks associated with what is becoming an increasingly complex world. In this paper, we argue that a more complete view is necessary for a proper assessment of not only the technical aspects of high-stakes risk management, but also the social, political, and economic framework within which it is carried out. Unfortunately, attention to such crucial details is not often the case.