Application of a vision in the Lake District of Salzburg

Understanding the complexity of landscapes is an essential prerequisite to propose strategies for landscape development in the mid future, to predict long-term effects of landscape change, and assess future demands on landscape resources. In order to be able to direct today's landscapes to a possible future state (German: Leitbild), landscape planning must include socio-cultural, economic and political considerations in addition to ecological aspects of the landscape. In response to this challenge, this paper unifies the Leitbild concept with a spatial explicit planning procedure and introduces a case study application for describing and classifying landscape visions based on a transdisciplinary, holistic concept.The general assessment system of planning a vision is adapted to the natural, cultural, political and economic conditions of the given case study area in the Federal States Upper Austria and Salzburg (Austria). The assessment system includes exercises that identify the assets of the planning procedure and encourage stakeholders, scientist and local people to collaborate in planning and implementation processes. This paper provides an overview of planning procedures from the Leitbild perspective, outlines problems encountered in the case study, and compares them to the findings of other scholars.     

Epistemology and public policy: using a new typology to analyse the paradigm shift in Finnish transport futures studies

The aim of the article is to present a new typology of paradigms of futures studies with specific focus on decision-making. Possible roles of futurists and other actors in long-term planning and decision-making processes are formed using logical analysis. The resulting seven schools of thought are interpreted in the light of literature of futures studies and planning theory. Connections to the philosophical discussion on the role of knowledge and values in policy recommendations are presented as well. Some futures studies methodological applications are attached to the paradigms. The new typology forms a gradient from technocracy performed by professionals to direct citizen participation. Finally, the paradigm shift of Finnish national transport futures studies is analysed using the new typology.     

Futures studies’ backcasting method used for strategic sustainable city planning

Achieving a sustainable city requires long-term visions, integration and a system-oriented approach to addressing economic, environmental and social issues. This paper case studies a sustainable city planning project, Göteborg 2050, that uses the backcasting method. Visionary images of a long-term sustainable future can stimulate an accelerated movement towards sustainability. The paper describes a special kind of scenario methodology to build a future model for city development as a planning tool in facilitating a sustainable society. Backcasting in futures studies is widely discussed together with the comparison of three selected backcasting approaches, including Robinson's approach, The Natural Step Framework, and the Sustainable Technology Development approach. The purposes of this paper are to examine and discuss the use of the backcasting method within the Project Göteborg 2050, lessons learned and findings drawn from the experience. The case study shows that backcasting is an appropriate method in developing action plans for achieving urban sustainability. This work can be served as a model for sustainable city planning in Thailand as well as other countries.     

The long-term future of the great barrier reef

Long-term participative regional planning is a relatively new and developing field in Australia. To conduct a futures project that seeks to address the serious matters of reef-related food production, jobs, recreation, cultural heritage and the conservation of the Great Barrier Reef with over 60 organizations participating, is not without its challenges. This futures project—the 25-year Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area Strategic Plan Development Project—has been described by the IUCN (The World Conservation Union) as having established a world model in participative regional planning for ecologically sustainable use of a natural resource. This article deals with the following questions: Why was the futures project needed? What was done? How was it achieved? What else needs to occur now and in the future? And, so what?     

Computational cognitive assistants for futures studies: Toward vision based simulation

Many foresight researchers believe that quantitative simulations have a very restricted contribution in futures studies due to their simplicity and lack of creativity. While qualitative methods, taking advantage of the human cognitive system, have a great potential in addressing a wide range of problems in futures studies, this potential is mostly due to the human visual logic that can handle the task of imagining future scenarios much better than mathematical logic.On the other hand, computational methods benefit from the advantages of silicon-based systems namely speed, large memory, rapid networking, and communication. Hence, it would be extremely beneficial to come up with a solution that combines the positive sides of both qualitative and computational approaches. Cognitive artificial agents are computational units that make use of the human cognitive system. Their interaction with foresight and futures researchers can result in promising solutions for the problems addressed in futures studies. In addition, these agents can serve as a great source of inspiration for taking the first step towards vision based computers that can simulate humans’ imaginations of the future.This paper reviews some of the previous attempts in this field and finally sheds light on the main issues where methods in futures studies can play a key role in the future of Human Computer Interaction systems. Our suggested architecture for a future studies interactions-based system along with its justifications and specifications is provided in the form of a request for proposal.     

Participative landscape planning in rural areas: A case study from Novodvorsko, Žehušicko,Czech Republic

According to the European Landscape Convention, landscape quality objectives should be defined for assessed landscapes as a part of landscape policies. The pilot study for Novodvorsko and Žehušicko in Central Bohemia is focused on sustainable landscape development with regard to the economic development, but also on the protection of natural and socio-cultural landscape qualities. The aim of this study is to investigate the implementation of the European Landscape Convention at the local level. The landscape quality objective should be a long-term strategic vision for making a landscape policy that could be used as a basis for strategic landscape planning documents. First, a landscape diagnosis was proposed. Then, four different scenarios for landscape development were assessed (integration, segregation, exploitation, and abandonment scenario). Finally, a landscape quality objective was developed. All process was closely connected with participative landscape planning; local stakeholders were involved to the whole process.     

Governing the transition to low-carbon futures: A critical survey of energy scenarios for 2050

There is a growing scientific consensus that limiting the increase in global average temperature to around 2 °C above pre-industrial levels is necessary to avoid unacceptable impact on the climate system. This requires that the developed countries’ emissions are radically reduced during the next 40 years. Energy scenario studies provide insights on the societal transitions that might be implied by such low-carbon futures, and in this paper we discuss how a greater attention to different governance and institutional issues can complement future scenario exercises. The analysis is based on a critical review of 20 quantitative and qualitative scenario studies, all of relevance for meeting long-term climate policy objectives. The paper: (a) analyzes some key differences in energy technology mixes and primary energy use patterns across these studies; (b) briefly explores the extent and the nature of the societal challenges and policy responses implied; and (c) discusses a number of important implications for the design and scope of future scenario studies. Our review shows that in previous scenario studies the main attention is typically paid to analyzing the impact of well-defined and uniform policy instruments, while fewer studies factor in the role of institutional change in achieving different energy futures. We therefore point towards a number of strategies of integrating issues of transition governance into future scenario analyses, and argue for a closer synthesis of qualitative and quantitative scenario building.     

Health trend assessment in Indonesia Futures studies at the provincial level

Health trend assessment studies have been carried out in Indonesia at the national and provincial levels, to provide input into long-term national development plans and to build up the capacity for local health planning in anticipation of decentralization. Provincial health trend assessment studies have been done in five provinces by teams from local health and planning authorities and the local school of public health. These provincial teams have all used background documents and standard procedures developed by a national team and have gone through the same methodological training. Out of the experience have come specific ideas about how trend assessment and similar activities can be strengthened. Among the recommendations are the establishment of national research centres for trend analysis, efforts to improve availability and reliability of relevant data, the training of a cadre of health professionals familiar with futures methods, and continued promotion by WHO and other agencies of long-term health planning and health futures.     

City foresight and development planning case study: Implementation of scenario planning in formulation of the Bulungan development plan

This article discusses the formulation of the Bulungan Development Plan (2002) that sought to formulate a 25 year city vision. The foresight process included how to prepared the process, implemented the scenario planning method, created consensus amongst stakeholders, and formulated graphic and narrative scenarios that explored alternative future for Bulungan. Based on these scenarios, the stakeholders formulated a vision for the city's preferred future. The vision is “excellence in agro industry supported by qualified human resources”.Project debriefing showed that unlike traditional forecasting or market research, the methods of foresight, especially scenario planning, is a more appropriate and powerful planning tool for integrated regional development. The main reason for this is that the future is unpredictable, and scenarios allow stakeholders to make sense of complexity.     

Futures studies and management development

Futures studies can make significant contributions to management by improving background information, stimulating new ways of thinking and providing decision inputs. Professor Dror shows how good futures studies, replacing the criterion of subjective certainty by that of objective uncertainty, pinpoint changes in management needed for long-term planning.     

Environmental outlooks: How they frame futures and long term uncertainty

Futures studies intend to structure our knowledge and our judgement about the future by handling facts and values in a certain way. In other words, futures studies frame futures. These frames might be powerful, triggering social action and societal transformation, yet they risk to be criticised and provoke scepticism. The environmental field has a long tradition in futures studies: environmental outlooks. Some of these outlooks, e.g. those published by the IPCC are among the most prominent examples of outlooks that provoke scientific, social and political debate, create commotion and provoke action. Part of these discussions deal with how outlooks frame the future and how they handle the uncertainty inevitably linked to framing futures. The way these challenges are dealt with may affect the overall assessment of an environmental outlook. This article attempts to identify the way environmental outlooks frame futures. We do not strive for exhaustiveness, but deliberately restrict to an in-depth analysis of a handful of recent environmental outlooks. We conclude that environmental outlooks reflect a lack of clarity and argumentation upon how they frame futures and how they deal with uncertainty. This epistemological and methodological ambiguity risk to affect the outlooks’ credibility and impact.     

New challenges for futures studies

Challenges coming from futures studies to other disciplines because of the rapidity and inter-relatedness of changes for which no discipline on its own can face the different correlated and global challenges, will be examined mainly in relation to social sciences. social sciences on the other hand reflect the need to overcome fragmentation within each discipline and between the various social sciences, in an effort at least of interdisciplinarity to face the growing uncertainty in decision making at every level: local, national and international. Social sciences are also slowly realising that a future oriented perspective is needed to empower analysis and actually reflect society in its continuous dynamicity. Citizens need the possibility to live within the rapidity of changes in the Information Society through the availability of futures studies in different forms as well as social analysis that is dynamic and interdisciplinary. The special link between society and ecological issues in a future oriented perspective will be the specific area to express the relevancy of the correlation between futures studies and social sciences.     

What future for health futures in Latin America and the Caribbean?

The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO), Regional Office of the World Health Organization, is a United Nations agency specializing in providing technical cooperation in health to the countries of Latin America and the Caribbean. A futures approach has much to offer in this endeavour, and PAHO is making health futures tools available to its Member States through a variety of activities. The purpose of promoting futures thinking and the application of futures tools is to improve health-policy planning and public health action within the framework of the ‘Health for All’ vision and PAHO's current Strategic and Programmatic Orientations.     

Exploring long-term business climates and strategies with interax

A major objective of corporate strategic planning is to minimize the surprises the future may bring, and INTERAX (developed at the Center for Futures Research with industrial sponsorship) draws on cross-impact matrices and scenario generation to allow alternative futures to be explored. This paper outlines the method, and summarizes part of the present database—a Delphi study of possible social, economic, and political developments, internationally and within the USA.     

The futures field: Functions,forms, and critical issues

Institutional forms in the futures field should be founded on the functions to be performed. These functions are viewed in relation to the contribution of visionaries to more and better images of the future; to a family of related analytical activities aimed at enhancing intentionality and explicitness in planning and decision making; and to a variety of grass-roots movements aimed at encouraging participatory social planning. Five basic functionsgoals formulation; methods development; applications; coupling; implementation—are explored and some existing institutional forms are examined: image generators; research organisations; corporate or government planning groups; and citizen groups. These provide guidelines for the possible development of modified institutional forms and their orientation.     

The missing link: Bringing institutions and politics into energy future studies

Energy future studies can be a useful tool for learning about how to induce and manage technical, economic and policy change related to energy supply and use. The private sector has successfully deployed them for strategic planning, examining key parameters such as markets, competition and consumer trends. However in public policy, most energy future studies remain disconnected from policy making. One reason is that they often ignore the key political and institutional factors that underpin much of the anticipated, wished-for or otherwise explored energy systems developments. Still, we know that institutions and politics are critical enablers or constraints to technical and policy change. This paper examines how analytical insights into political and institutional dynamics can enhance energy future studies. It develops an approach that combines systems-technical change scenarios with political and institutional analysis. Using the example of a backcasting study dealing with the long term low-carbon transformation of a national energy system, it applies two levels of institutional and political analysis; at the level of international regimes and at the level of sectoral policy, and examines how future systems changes and policy paths are conditioned by institutional change processes. It finds that the systematic application of these variables significantly enhances and renders more useful backcasting studies of energy futures.     

Futures: A question of values-consciousness-choices

How important is the quality of values, worldviews, consciousness and choices in the theory and praxis of futures studies and the creation of possible futures? This paper is based on an unpublished Ph.D. Thesis (that is now accessible on the ADT database on the internet), a case study about the evolution of values, consciousness and choices in 12 Australian women's lives. It contains a summary of the impact of the Women's Liberation Movement on these women's values and consciousness, their current values and consciousness, as well as some of their hopes and concerns for the future. Many of the value priorities these women share stand in remarkable contrast to mainstream patriarchal ethics. These women's values also find themselves in uneasy relation to patriarchal worldviews, future visions and futures studies and in important ways surpass them. Based on my research, I propose questions and suggestions in regards to futures studies.     

Social and technological forecasting in the Soviet Union

Futures research is now an accepted part of the Soviet planning and control system. Soviet forecasting methods are similar to Western methods, differing chiefly in a greater insistence that complex methods are no substitute for a substantive understanding of the problem. Soviet methodological innovations are worth watching for, however. Actual forecasts are often not published, but the Soviet vision of the future is fairly clear. Key events will include the disappearance of capitalism and the achievement of controlled fusion. Despite its prominence, Soviet futures research has a somewhat uncertain future; further growth will depend both on its own achievements and on any realignment of official policy which may come with the inevitable leadership changes in the Kremlin.     

Reflections on World Futures Studies Federation

The World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) began as an idea of a few visionary people. It developed with the contribution of different people around the world who thought that looking into the future as a set of alternative paths linked to the choices in the present, was crucial for humankind. Many of these people were well known scientists, writers in different areas, some were already involved in futures studies some became involved during their time in WFSF. This article traces the events through which the Federation developed and was enriched. The vision of the Federation is just as valid today as it was when the Federation started. It can still perform the role of a modest bridge between people who are concerned with building a humane world.     

Is it possible to make scientific forecasts in social sciences?

This article attempts to answer the question, whether and how it is possible to make scientific forecasts in social sciences through the investigation of the actual scientific-philosophical problems and methodological aspects of futures studies.¹ Following a critical analysis it describes the scientific-philosophical features of uncovering and forecasting the possible futures from the classic predictions to the latest approaches. In the methodological chapter it turns its attention to the impossibility of making scientific predictions and demonstrates the methods with the help of which—reacting to the challenges of uncertainty, instability and various changes—futures studies can perform its original function, i.e. supports present decisions providing information about the future.