Weak signals analysis,knowledge management theory and systemic socio-cultural transitions

The theoretical goal of this article is to narrow the gap between existing knowledge management theories and theories of weak signal analysis, and partly wild card analysis. The following theories and associated theoretical frameworks are discussed in the article: (1) Environmental Scanning Model, (2) Nonaka's Knowledge Management Theory, (3) Gammelgaard's and Ritter's Knowledge Retrieval Matrix, (4) Boisot's Information Space Model and (5) Vejlgaard's Diamond Shaped Trend Model. These various and nevertheless complementary perspectives are important for the further development of weak signal analysis, knowledge management theory and knowledge management practices in modern organisations as well as for anticipation and decision-making in policy-making arenas. There are still many theoretical and empirical challenges in these fields of scientific knowledge. A general conclusion is that all these frameworks provide interesting new perspectives for modern futures studies as such. Another conclusion is that there are various knowledge management (KM) and scanning frameworks available for implementing weak signal analysis. However, this paper, its observations and conclusions also imply that a more generalised approach to weak signal analysis needs to be developed and that modern KM theories should be used when developing new futures studies/foresight methodologies. According to the theoretical guidelines presented in this article, it is possible to make the suggestion that it would be wise to integrate the latest developments in weak signal analysis into knowledge management theory and vice versa.     

THE ROLE OF LOAN LOSS PROVISIONS IN EARNINGS MANAGEMENT,CAPITAL MANAGEMENT,AND SIGNALING: THE SPANISH EXPERIENCE

While much research has been conducted in the United States on the use of loan loss provisions (LLPs) as a mechanism for managing earnings, managing capital, and as a tool for signaling future earnings strategies, there is a paucity of research in Europe. In this research, we replicate methodology used by Ahmed, Takeda and Thomas (1998) and examine the relative importance of key factors affecting the LLP decisions of Spanish depository institutions. Among others, we focus on the role of organizational structure. We specifically examine if and how LLPs are used prior to and after the implementation of capital adequacy regulations in the Spanish depository industry in 1992. Our results indicate that while LLPs were not used as a tool for managing capital after the new regulation came into effect, banks have now adopted a more aggressive earnings management strategy. This appears to be because the capital adequacy regulation of 1992 removed any capital constraint that hitherto acted as a disincentive to aggressive earnings management. Commercial banks appeared to adopt a more aggressive earnings management as well as capital management strategy than savings banks in the post regulatory era. Finally, we did not find evidence that LLPs were used as a signaling tool by Spanish banks to portray their intentions about future earnings.     

Scanning the periphery

Companies often face new rivals, technologies, regulations, and other environmental changes that seem to come out of left field. How can they see these changes sooner and capitalize on them? Such changes often begin as weak signals on what the authors call the periphery, or the blurry zone at the edge of an organization's vision. As with human peripheral vision, these signals are difficult to see and interpret but can be vital to success or survival. Unfortunately, most companies lack a systematic method for determining where on the periphery they should be looking, how to interpret the weak signals they see, and how to allocate limited scanning resources. This article provides such a method-a question-based framework for helping companies scan the periphery more efficiently and effectively. The framework divides questions into three categories: learning from the past (What have been our past blind spots? What instructive analogies do other industries offer? Who in the industry is skilled at picking up weak signals and acting on them?); evaluating the present (What important signals are we rationalizing away? What are our mavericks, outliers, complainers, and defectors telling us? What are our peripheral customers and competitors really thinking?); and envisioning the future (What future surprises could really hurt or help us? What emerging technologies could change the game? Is there an unthinkable scenario that might disrupt our business?). Answering these questions is a good first step toward anticipating problems or opportunities that may appear on the business horizon. The article concludes with a self-test that companies can use to assess their need and capability for peripheral vision.     

Filters of weak signals hinder foresight: Monitoring weak signals efficiently in corporate decision-making

Already two decades ago strategy literature started a discussion on weak signals (H.I. Ansoff, Implanting Strategic Management, Prentice-Hall International, Englewood-Cliffs, NJ, 1984). Currently the weak signals approach is experiencing a renaissance in strategic planning but now either in the context of strategic flexibility or peripheral vision. In this paper we aim, firstly, to present theories describing filters that a weak signal has to pass in the strategy-creation process. Secondly, we present a construction for information filters in the strategy process and prove that the nature of objectives and the method used in environment scanning have a major impact on the outcome. Thirdly, we introduce an application that opens filters for weak signals in the strategy process and thus provides the organization with an opportunity for pro-active decision-making.     

Overbuilding,real estate lending decisions,and the regional economic base

The primary purpose of this paper is to evaluate the causes of overbuilding in the context of economic base theory. A second and closely related purpose is to determine if the economic base multiplier effect is stronger in the long run. Construction decisions depend on the strength of the local economy. Since basic activity is highly cyclical, if there are significant lags in the multiplier process running from basic to nonbasic sectors, then growth in non-basic employment will continue when the basic sector slows or declines. Hence, overbuilding may be, in part, a result of false signals about future growth in the local economy to builders, developers and lenders at the time a project is conceived. In addition, one of the important sources of the lags in the multiplier process is the construction sector. Potential solutions to overbuilding are discussed in an economic base context. The implications for bank regulation, bank lending and feasibility analysis are discussed.     

认知·管理·活动:一个管理哲学的研究视角

管理工作作为生产特殊的知识、点子、信息的脑力劳动,与人类的认知密切相关。如果对管理过程与认知过程所固有的主体、客体相互作用进行分析,那么就必须理解这两个过程的相互关系。同样,主体客体的相互作用也是管理学作为认知科学哲学的最基本的研究目标。大体上,主体客体相互作用可以通过二项式(双向式)或三项式模式来描述。     

Aesthetics and the environment in outer space,subterranean and underwater communities

Building future communities in outer space, under the ground and under the ocean surface will require careful environmental planning and design if the first generation of inhabitants are to transfer from earth surface living with minimum psychological disruption. Art can make an important contribution to a smooth transfer and to maintaining patterns of social interaction and philosophy that may otherwise suffer in a controlled environment.     

Optimal regulation,executive compensation and risk taking by financial institutions

We present an equilibrium model of financial institutions to examine the optimal regulation of risk taking. Shareholders provide incentives for management to increase risk to excessive levels. Regulators use caps on asset risk and compensation to achieve the socially optimal risk level. This level trades off costs of risk shifting and costs of bank default. Without regulation, equilibrium risk lies above the optimal level. If information and enforcement are perfect, either policy tool (caps on asset risk or compensation) achieves the optimal risk level. If there are frictions – if enforcement is limited, if there is uncertainty about the incentives facing management and costs of risk shifting, or if regulation cannot be bank specific – welfare can be improved by employing both policy tools.     

Sense-making of risk and role-taking emotions: how young Swedes construe road traffic risk

The aim of this study is to improve our understanding of how young people make sense of traffic risk. The study also aims to contribute to current theory by refining the concept of ‘sense-making of risk’. The focus is to explore, empirically as well as theoretically, how role-taking emotions can contribute to this particular area of research. In order to chart both the sense-making of social interaction and the respondents’ subjective sense of traffic risk, the present study used both in-depth interviews and focus group interviews: the in-depth interviews comprised a total of 11 interviews with as many interviewees, while a total of 36 people were included in the eight focus group interviews. All interviewees were Swedish residents aged between 16 and 20. It is found that by adopting the perspective afforded by theory of emotion, it is possible to deepen our knowledge of individual sense-making of risk. Both primary emotions and role-taking emotions seem to be central to how young Swedes form their understanding of traffic risk. A focus on role-taking emotions reveals the value of indirect social interaction for the individual’s sense-making of risk in general, and adds to our knowledge of the individual’s sense-making of traffic risk in particular.     

Optimal investment with stock repurchase and financing as signals

When management has private information it has an incentiveto finance investment by issuing a security that is overpricedin the market. The market's valuation of the issued securitymay lead management either to forego profitable investmentsor to invest suboptimally. With investment fixed, there existfully revealing signaling equilibria in which the covenantsof the issued claim serve as signals. A straight bond issuecannot provide the signals but a convertible bond issue can.With investment endogenous, fully revealing equilibria existin which the par value of a straight bond issue and the announcedlevel of investment jointly serve as signals and investmentis optimal. The article also investigates the role of a stockrepurchase in these equilibria.     

Combining LCA and RA for the integrated risk management of emerging technologies

Emerging risks of innovative technologies, like for instance nanotechnology, require proactive assessments in order to guarantee that their future materials and products will not result in adverse effects on health, safety and the environment. The combination of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Risk Assessment (RA) offers a systematic approach to identify and assess potential impacts. LCA is a well-known analytical tool, standardised in ISO 14040-14044, to assess the environmental impact of the entire life-cycle of a product or service. Its strengths are the systematic approach to analyse all life-cycle stages of complex systems. Integrated risk management can benefit in various ways from LCA. Firstly, LCA offers a new dimension to the safety paradigm, exploring the principles and synergies between LCA and RA. Secondly, LCA offers a systematic approach to analyse the risks of innovative technologies along their entire life-cycle (from design, building, maintenance, operation to decommissioning). Thirdly, LCA offers an analytical tool to quantify the environmental impact of emerging technologies. In combination with RA, LCA can provide scientifically sound information for the early assessment of potential impacts on health, safety and the environment.     

Now And The Future

Knowledge. management has become part of the rhetoric, if not the reality, of the post-modern business world. There is a widely perceived link between the financial performance of enterprises and the way they cultivate, nurture and exploit the knowledge of individuals and that embodied in their business or professional processes. This paper reviews the emerging literature of knowledge management and points to research opportunities that could lead to a greater understanding of this "next big idea".     

Intellectual Capital Statements and Knowledge Management: 'Measuring', 'Reporting', 'Acting'

This paper discusses the relationship between intellectual capital and knowledge management. Based on five empirical examples, it suggests that intellectual capital statements are complex forms of measuring, reporting and acting at the same time. Measurement and process conflate, because there is little attempt to measure the "true" value of intellectual capital in empirical intellectual capital statements. In contrast, there is attention to a broad sense of reporting and communication, which consist not only of measures but also of stories and sketches. The "object" to be illuminated and managed via intellectual capital statements is knowledge management activities rather than knowledge itself.     

The strategic strength of weak signal analysis

Foresight can be seen as a social cognition process involving a complex set of methods and interactive processes intended to assist policy in becoming more adaptive and forward-oriented in unpredictable environments. As a form of foresight raw material, “weak signals” can be thought of as gross, unstructured, fragmented, incomplete and inadvertent environmental data that may be refined into valuable information regarding context and further be articulated into strategically actionable knowledge. As advanced indicators that precede significant discrete one-off events and/or novel developments in the rate and direction of trends, their analysis has the potential to facilitate the real-time alignment between organisational decision-making and changing external circumstances. These predictors of future change pose fundamental problems of identification and interpretation and represent a challenge to established mental models. Thus, the practical significance of weak signals is that they can be transformed into meaningful insight for policy action. Such a value, however, does not materialise automatically. Realising this potential requires a degree of tolerance and fluidity of the collective cognitive frameworks by which weak signals can be apprehended, assessed and acted upon. This paper aims at covering the scope of perceptions and actions typically involved in the tracing and tracking of this shaping process.     

政府环境责任审计本质与特征的探讨

审计是一种管理工具,政府环境责任审计则是服务于环境管理的工具。从广义上来说,政府环境责任审计不但是政府审计的一种类型,也是国家环境管理的一部分。本文从工具论的角度对政府环境责任审计的本质进行了探讨,认为其本质是控制和创新领导干部政府环境行为的管理工具,通过影响领导干部政府环境行为,实现维护生态环境安全的工作目标。在对本质认识的基础上,又从区别于狭义环境管理的角度,分析了政府环境责任审计作为广义上环境管理活动的特征,从而为更好地认识与研究政府环境责任审计奠定了重要基础。     

Anticipatory policymaking in global venues: Policy change,adaptation, and the UNFCCC

The subfield of public policy depicts policymaking as reactive process wherein public officials respond to existing social problems. While this depiction holds true in many cases, it fails to account for instances where policy change occurs in anticipation of emerging threats or hazards. “Anticipatory problems” are projected to occur in the future, and it is the prospect of their occurring that generates policy debate. This paper examines the policymaking pattern engendered by anticipatory policy problems, highlighting the ways in which they challenge and support existing assumptions about the process of policy change. To illustrate this distinctive dynamic, this paper will present a case study examining the evolving debate over climate change adaptation policy within United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).     

Country-level corruption and accounting choice: Research & development capitalization under IFRS

International Accounting Standard 38 Intangible Assets mandates that development costs must be capitalized if certain conditions specified in the standard are met. However, this requires managerial judgement and hence may be subject to opportunism. Corruption is a permeable informal country characteristic that penetrates firms’ behaviour, influencing corporate misconduct. We conjecture that an environment with high corruption facilitates management in their justification of meeting the capitalization criteria of assets that should have been expensed, either partly or entirely. These capitalized assets will not generate the future economic benefits implicitly conveyed by their recognition. This recognition, however, sends positive (albeit distorted) market signals for future earnings and increases current year reported earnings. We find that there is a positive relation between country-level corruption and the amount of development costs capitalized in a given year. Moreover, the higher the levels of country corruption, the lower the contribution of capitalized development costs in a given year to future profitability. Finally, this association is moderated by companies’ levels of internationalization.     

The Big Picture - trends, drivers, wild cards, discontinuities and weak signals

Following work done in the UK, Canada and now starting across Europe,¹ there appears to be renewed interest in charting the boundaries of what to expect between 2010 and 2025 as the character of the 21st century begins to become firmly established. What are the shaping forces, or sources of change and what might be their impacts, particularly where these may create entirely new challenges and opportunities?Futures experts (attendees of the FTA 2008 Conference) were invited to state their opinions on these questions by considering the trends, drivers, wilds cards, discontinuities and weak signals likely to shape the future through the Big Picture Survey. The survey was launched 6 months prior to the Conference. More than 250 responses were submitted by the Conference date. The results collected were synthesised and presented back to the attendees in a plenary presentation by the authors.The current paper aims to clarify the concepts first by suggesting definitions and discussing the distinctions between them. The paper then presents the rationales of conducting the Big Picture Survey (BPS), presents its methodology and discusses the results of the survey in a greater extent.     

Of great apes and robots: Considering the future(s) of cultural heritage

Because cultural heritage management is an inherently retrospective discipline, too many valuable heritage places were lost because they are not recognised and assessed in time. This paper advances strategic thinking in cultural heritage management by addressing two on-the-horizon and over-the-horizon issues: the management of artefacts created by our closest relatives, the great apes; and the management of artefacts created in the future by the first artificial intelligence (AI)-imbued, self-reflecting robots.Given the increasing understanding that chimpanzees have cultures and traditions in tool use, there is a need to recognise their heritage value in reference to human evolution. Likewise, it is now also time to explore how we are going to deal with the non-human, robotid artefacts. The contemplation of the role of non-human heritage will ultimately foster a re-appraisal of human heritage. The paper outlines some of the conceptual issues that need to be addressed if our heritage is to have an ethical future.