Evolution of education: From weak signals to rich imaginaries of educational futures

This paper proposes that all aspects of educational futures are affected by the new thinking patterns and ways of knowing that have been emerging over the last hundred years as part of the parallel processes of evolution of human consciousness and major global societal change.Throughout the 20th century, significant developments can be mapped in most, if not all, of the major academic disciplines. Secondly, the move to transcend disciplinary specialisation, via inter-, multi-, and trans-disciplinary approaches is strengthening. Thirdly, at a higher order theoretical level, these developments are explicitly theorized in the discourses associated with postformal reasoning, integral theory and planetary consciousness. In spite of all these developments in other disciplines and knowledge fields, the institution of mass public education, with its underpinning industrial worldview, has been pretty static since its inception two hundred years ago. Finally, the paper identifies three minor, but significant, waves of evolutionary emergence in education over the last hundred years that if articulated and nurtured could strengthen the development of evolutionary pedagogies for the 21st century.     

1948 and not nineteen eighty-four

This article marks the return of I.F. Clarke to the pages of Futures. Those readers who have followed Futures since our first number in September 1968 will recall his long-running series on the development of futuristic fiction and the coming of modern forecasting techniques. He likes to be known as the oldest inhabitant of Futures so far. Professor Clarke was once described, with some accuracy, as ‘Mr Future’ by a Glasgow newspaper. The style recognized the work he has done in the investigation of the many ways in which our ideas about the future have evolved and have found expression in science fiction, imaginary wars, ideal states, Orwellian nightmares and in the proliferation of futurological studies that have swept the world since Ossip K. Flechtheim coined the term futurologist in 1943. This specially commissioned article on Orwell's true place in futures studies serves as an hors d'oeuvre to a new series in Futures by Professor Clarke: “An almanac of anticipations” will begin in the next issue.     

A public good approach to credit ratings – From concept to reality

From the onset of the 2008–2009 financial crisis to the subsequent European sovereign debt crisis, credit rating agencies have been assigned considerable blame. Reforming the credit rating industry has hence become an important policy issue. In addition to the regulatory efforts in the context of accepting the for-profit business model of ratings, there is a growing realization that credit ratings bear the characteristics of a public good. Financial market participants need reliable, transparent and independent assessment of credit risks. Credit ratings are therefore better viewed as an infrastructure matter. However, the proposed regulations seem to have missed this point. This paper introduces a new approach to credit ratings undertaken by the Risk Management Institute at the National University of Singapore that is predicated on the provision of credit ratings as a public good. With a public good alternative in place, the currently predominant for-profit business model may be counterbalanced.     

Do oil futures prices predict stock returns?

This paper explores stock return predictability by exploiting the cross-section of oil futures prices. Motivated by the principal component analysis, we find the curvature factor of the oil futures curve predicts monthly stock returns: a 1% per month increase in the curvature factor predicts 0.4% per month decrease in stock market index return. This predictive pattern is prevailing in non-oil industry portfolios, but is absent for oil-related portfolios. The in- and out-of-sample predictive power of the curvature factor for non-oil stocks is robust and outperforms many other predictors, including oil spot prices. The predictive power of the curvature factor comes from its ability to forecast supply-side oil shocks, which only affect non-oil stocks and are hedged by oil-related stocks.     

Exploring de-facto accountability regimes in Muslim NGOs

This paper aims to deepen and advance our understanding of the de-facto accountability processes and practices within Muslim non-governmental organisations (NGOs). We employ a three-fold accountability framework of felt, imposed and adaptive accountability, supported by insight from the Islamic perspective to elucidate our empirical findings. We adopt this framework because it enables us to localise the notions of accountability, allowing a more complete understanding of the de-facto nature of Muslim NGO accountability to emerge within the context of religious ideals and between accountabilities that are externally imposed and those that are internally generated.     

Neo-Malthusians and Cornucopians put to the test: Global 2000 and The Resourceful Earth revisited

There is an on-going debate between neo-Malthusians and Cornucopians about the state and trends of the world's environment. Two key contributions to this debate were The Global 2000 Report to the President and, The Resourceful Earth, both published at the beginning of the 1980s and looking forward to the year 2000. This paper compares the predictions and analysis of the two reports with the situation in the year 2000 to ascertain their accuracy. In terms of predicting the future, The Resourceful Earth relied heavily upon examining past trends as giving the best indication of the future; Global 2000 gave somewhat less emphasis to past trends and also tried to analyze directly the factors that it saw as being likely to influence the future. Broadly speaking, Global 2000 was overly pessimistic, while The Resourceful Earth was more accurate in predicting that with many basic parameters relating to human existence the trends of improvement of earlier years would continue. Neither report dealt adequately with questions relating to adaptive capacity and its impact on predictions of the future.     

Endogenizing exogenous default barrier models: The MM algorithm

In this paper, we propose a Maximization–Maximization (MM) algorithm for the assessment of hidden parameters in structural credit risk models. Step M1 updates the value, volatility, and expected return on the firm’s assets by maximizing the log-likelihood function for the time series of equity prices; Step M2 updates the default barrier by maximizing the equity holders’ participation in the firm’s asset value. The main contribution of the method lies in the M2 step, which allows for ‘endogenizing’ the default barrier in light of actual data on equity prices. Using a large international sample of companies, we demonstrate that theoretical credit spreads based on the MM algorithm offer the lowest CDS pricing errors when compared to other, traditional default barrier specifications: smooth-pasting condition value, maximum likelihood estimate, KMV’s default point, and nominal debt.     

A two-country NATREX model for the euro/dollar

This paper develops a NATREX (NATural Real EXchange rate) model for two large economies, the Eurozone and the United States, which are fully specified and allowed to interact. The theoretical framework, grounded on dynamic disequilibrium modelling approach in continuous time, provides the basis for empirical estimation. The model is estimated in its structural form as a simultaneous nonlinear differential equations system for the 1975–2003 period. The estimated parameters are then used to derive the simulated Euro/USD NATREX series in- and out-of-sample that offers the benchmark against which the misalignements of the actual real exchange rate are measured.     

Futures of integral futures: An analysis of Richard Slaughter's analysis of Causal Layered Analysis

By way of exemplifying the problematisation of particular uses of Wilber's integral approach and its address of postformal thought, this paper analyses Slaughter's “integral” analysis of Inayatullah's Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) which forms part of Slaughter's article, “What difference does ‘integral’ make?” Futures 40 (2) (2008). Evidence given for Slaughter's assertions is investigated. His assertions are then analysed partly by way of hermeneutics, CLA and deconstruction including address of Koestler's holon theory, Jung's archetypes, and Lakoff and Johnson's conceptual metaphor. The potential of Slaughter's analysis involves the opening up or furthering of generative dialogue, specifically through extending the possibilities of CLA. As instituted, however, it enacts a premature foreclosure of such potential, partly through offering an inadequate and inaccurate evaluation of CLA. This paper specifically problematises the notion that CLA is not substantively postconventional, whilst pointing to unproductive modernistic tendencies in Slaughter's analysis. In so doing, it opens up new avenues for integral futures.     

Similar GDP-inflation cycles. An application to CEE countries and the euro area

In this paper we look at business cycles similarities between CEE countries and the euro area. Particularly, we uncover GDP-inflation cycles by adopting a trend-cycle decomposition model which allows the trend to be either stochastic or deterministic, i.e. of the non-linear type. Once cyclical components are derived, we test for ex post restrictions at both with-in (GDP-to-inflation) and cross-country (CEECs vs. euro area) levels. Allowing for different degrees of cyclical similarity, we find that a similar inflation vs. GDP cycle is not rejected only for Poland, Lithuania, Romania and Estonia (with Latvia and the euro area being at the boundary). Looking at cross-country results, almost all countries feature a fair degree of similarity with respect to the euro area. Exceptions are Poland, Hungary, Latvia and Slovenia because of lack of a similar cycle either occurring in GDP or inflation, yet not in both. Finally, observing how concurrence between each CEECs cycle and the euro area evolved over time, we find that inflation conditional correlation increased stemming from the EU accession of most CEECs and as a result of the commodity price shock preceding 2008. Further, inflation and GDP conditional correlations receded during the course of 2009–2010, possibly resulting from more idiosyncratic adjustments in the aftermath of the crisis on the monetary/fiscal side. Interestingly, Slovenia, Slovakia, Estonia and Bulgaria display a conditional correlation pattern in GDP and inflation which roughly suggest a strong out-of-phase recovery starting from 2005.     

Productivity and efficiency analysis of Shinkin banks: Evidence from bootstrap and Bayesian approaches

This paper analyzes the productivity and efficiency of Shinkin banks and the various prefectures in Japan, over the period from 2000 to 2006. We obtain estimates of efficiency growth and productivity growth, using the bootstrapped Malmquist index, and estimates of efficiency using the Bayesian distance frontier approach. We confirm that the efficiency growth and productivity growth of Shinkin banks did not improve significantly over the period of this study. In addition, we show that the efficiency of Shinkin banks is homogenous, with little variation across the banks analyzed. Methodologically, we also prove that a failure to impose theoretical regularity on the distance function could lead to false conclusions about the average efficiency or efficiency ranking of Shinkin banks. The study also includes an analysis of the correlates of productivity and efficiency growth, and provides efficiency and productivity estimates of the prefectures in which the banks are located.     

Commentary: A proposal for theoretical models of stakeholder perceptions of a new financial reporting system

This commentary explores the article by Fontes et al. published in this issue of Accounting Forum. They argue that the scope of IFRS continues to widen across the world, using a number of social science disciplines to discuss stakeholder perceptions of change. The commentary uses Hegel's Science of Logic to situate their arguments through four key theoretical approaches that are prominent in the accounting literature. Ultimately, this has the potential to position IASB frameworks in such a way as to challenge the economic and neoliberal logic on which modern accounting is based.     

Heterogeneous student perceptions of accounting course importance and their implications for SET reporting and use

This research tests for an association between student perceptions of accounting course importance (PCI) and student evaluation of teaching (SET) ratings of satisfaction with instructor performance, course quality, and grading procedures. The study also investigates whether instructor rankings constructed from SET ratings vary across student groupings based on PCI. Using responses from students enrolled in introductory accounting classes at three AACSB-accredited accounting programs we find that SET ratings vary significantly with PCI. We also find that instructor rankings constructed from SET ratings vary with PCI. These findings suggest that, when heterogeneous perceptions are present, satisfying all students enrolled in a course may not be possible and that reliance on aggregated SET data may obscure important differences in student opinion. In this circumstance, disaggregating SET data by PCI and emphasizing the feedback of students holding higher (stronger) perceptions of course importance may enhance SET diagnostic value.     

Beyond epistemological pluralism: Towards an integrated vision of the future

This paper is a response to Epistemological Pluralism in Futures Studies, featured as a special edition of Futures (42:2). Since that special edition was a response to Integral Futures, a previous special edition of Futures (40:2), this paper begins with a treatment of some of the critiques of IF, as well as the critiques of Ken Wilber and integral theory. I examine the validity of those critiques, focusing in particular on the accuracy of the “portraits” given of Ken Wilber and his contribution to integral theory. I also examine the claims of “epistemological pluralism” to determine whether it is a more appropriate framework for futures inquiry and practice. In this consideration, I treat epistemological pluralism (devoid of an “integrating” theory) as an expression of skeptical postmodernism. Finally, I conclude with a historical overview of integral theory.     

Participation in environmental spatial planning: Structuring-scenario to manage knowledge in action

Participatory planning experiences highlight the crucial role of cognitions produced, shared and used throughout participatory processes. The construction of spatial plans is more and more intended as a socio/political activity producing highly cognitive visions able to guide collective action and make a common good of it.In accordance with the view that a relevant portion of such knowledge is revealed only through action, the paper proposes the idea of structuring-scenarios as open entities able to structure action and, consequently, to bridge participatory knowledge to the impetuous practice of action.The paper first presents and discusses the role of structuring-scenarios in the work carried out while developing an environmental plan for the delta area of the Po River in Italy. Then it reflects on the main features of content and structure of such scenarios. Finally, the paper analyses the ‘structuring properties’ of these scenarios and their role in structuring action.     

The 1/N investment strategy is optimal under high model ambiguity

The 1/N investment strategy, i.e. the strategy to split one’s wealth uniformly between the available investment possibilities, recently received plenty of attention in the literature. In this paper, we demonstrate that the uniform investment strategy is rational in situations where an agent is faced with a sufficiently high degree of model uncertainty in the form of ambiguous loss distributions. More specifically, we use a classical risk minimization framework to show that, for a broad class of risk measures, as the uncertainty concerning the probabilistic model increases, the optimal decisions tend to the uniform investment strategy.To illustrate the theoretical results of the paper, we investigate the Markowitz portfolio selection model as well as Conditional Value-at-Risk minimization with ambiguous loss distributions. Subsequently, we set up a numerical study using real market data to demonstrate the convergence of optimal portfolio decisions to the uniform investment strategy.     

The structure and formation of business groups: Evidence from Korean chaebols

We study the evolution of Korean chaebols (business groups) using ownership data. Chaebols grow vertically (as pyramids) when the controlling family uses well-established group firms (“central firms”) to acquire firms with low pledgeable income and high acquisition premiums. Chaebols grow horizontally (through direct ownership) when the family acquires firms with high pledgeable income and low acquisition premiums. Central firms trade at a relative discount, due to shareholders’ anticipation of value-destroying acquisitions. Our evidence is consistent with the selection of firms into different positions in the chaebol and ascribes the underperformance of pyramidal firms to a selection effect rather than tunneling.     

R around the world: New theory and new tests

Morck, Yeung and Yu show that R² is higher in countries with less developed financial systems and poorer corporate governance. We show how control rights and information affect the division of risk bearing between managers and investors. Lack of transparency increases R² by shifting firm-specific risk to managers. Opaque stocks with high R²s are also more likely to crash, that is, to deliver large negative returns. Using stock returns from 40 stock markets from 1990 to 2001, we find strong positive relations between R² and several measures of opaqueness. These measures also explain the frequency of crashes.     

The Future of Risk Classification in the Age of Predictive DNA-Based Testing

This paper describes the epic genetic testing issue within the context of the insurer’s decadeslong struggle against increasing numbers of people who question the fairness and social legitimacy of risk classification.

The fact that this uniquely personal and emotional genetics issue is now erupting at the very time that our industry seems preoccupied with other challenges begs the question of our industry’s ability to manage this issue in a way that will preserve the basic fabric of our being. A major goal of this paper is to articulate a visionary tenpart industry management strategy.

Four specific and critically important industry management recommendations are made. Although some will be easier than others to accomplish, each is exceedingly important.     

Opaque financial reports, R, and crash risk

We investigate the relation between the transparency of financial statements and the distribution of stock returns. Using earnings management as a measure of opacity, we find that opacity is associated with higher R²s, indicating less revelation of firm-specific information. Moreover, opaque firms are more prone to stock price crashes, consistent with the prediction of the Jin and Myers [2006. R² around the world: new theory and new tests. Journal of Financial Economics 79, 257–292] model. However, these relations seem to have dissipated since the passage of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, suggesting that earnings management has decreased or that firms can hide less information in the new regulatory environment.